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PVH Corp. (PVH)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 28, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to today’s PVH Corp. Fourth Quarter 2011 And Full-Year Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder today’s conference is being recorded. This webcast and conference call is recorded on behalf of PVH Corp. and consist of copyrighted material and may not be recorded, reproduced, retransmitted, rebroadcast, downloaded or otherwise used without PVH’s expressed written consent. Your participation in the question-and-answer session constitutes your consent to having any comments or statements you make appear on any transcript or broadcast of this call. The information made available on this webcast and conference call contains forward-looking statements that reflect PVH’s view of future events and financial performance as of March 27, 2012.Any such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties indicated from time-to-time in the company’s SEC filings including those identified in the company’s Safe Harbor statement that is part of the earnings press release that is the subject of this webcast and conference call. These include the company’s ready to change its strategy, objective, expectation and intensions, it need to use significant cash flow to service its debt obligations, it's vulnerability to weather, economic conditions, fuel prices, fashion trends, lost of retail accounts, disease, epidemics, war and terrorism, availability of raw materials and other factors. If reliance on the sales of its licensees and retail customers, and it's exposure to the behavior of its associates, business partners and licensors. Therefore, the company’s future results of operations could differ materially from historical results or current expectations. As more fully discussed in its SEC filings. The company does not undertake any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements including without limitation any estimate regarding revenue or earnings. The information made available also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under SEC rules. A reconciliation of these measures is included in the company’s earnings release which can be found on the company’s website www.pvh.com and in the company’s current report on Form 8-K furnished with the SEC in advance of this webcast and call. And now I’d like to turn the call over to Mr. Manny Chirico. Please go ahead.

Manny Chirico

Management

Thank you. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us. Joining me on the call this morning is Mike Shaffer, our Chief Financial Officer; Dana Perlman, our Treasurer; Allen Sirkin, our President; and Ken Duane, who is in charge of all of our Wholesale Apparel business. Just some general comments before I get into the businesses. We are very pleased with our fourth quarter results. We beat the top end of our fourth quarter earnings guidance by $0.08 and we gave that guidance in mid-January of this year. And the momentum we see in all of our businesses we were also able to increase our 2012 earnings guidance by $0.20 to $6.10 to $6.20 from $5.90 to $6 that we gave about two months ago. Moving to each of our businesses. Our Calvin business continued its strong momentum. Total revenues in the fourth quarter for the combined Calvin Klein businesses were up 12%, and operating profits increased about 6%. The Calvin Klein wholesale and retail business that we operate directly posted a 13% sales increase in the quarter, but strong performance was driven by our Calvin Klein retail businesses which posted an 18% comp store increase in the quarter. For 2012 we are planning our Calvin Klein wholesale and retail businesses to grow about 7 to 9% which will be driven by mid single-digit comp store increases and a growth in square footage at both our wholesale and retail businesses. Moving to our licensing segment. Royalties in the quarter were up about 16%, the business posted strong double-digit growth in all geographic regions with the exception of Europe. Specifically, North America was up about 10%, Asia was up about 21%, Latin and South America were up about 30% and Europe was up low single-digits with fragrance posting strong performance…

Mike Shaffer

Management

Thanks Manny. The comments I’m going to make is based on non-GAAP results and are reconciled in our press release. We are very happy with the fourth quarter results and particularly the momentum we have as we move into 2012. For the fourth quarter we delivered revenue and earnings per share above our guidance and significantly greater than in the prior year. Our revenues for the quarter increased 135 million or 10% over the prior year and were 4 million greater than our previous revenue guidance Revenue growth over the prior year was driven by increases of 16% and 12% at Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, respectively. Total operating income for the quarter was relatively flat to the prior year as earnings increases in Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger businesses were offset by a decline in our Heritage business. Wed delivered earnings per share of 1.18 for the fourth quarter, which was $0.08 greater than our guidance of $1.10. Our earnings per share breaks down as a $0.04 EBITDA and a $0.04 beat in taxes. Moving to our guidance for 2012. Revenues are planned to up 4 to 6% excluding the impact of foreign exchange and the impact of our discontinued businesses. Including the impact of foreign exchange discontinued businesses; we were expecting revenues to be flat to up 2%. Total Tommy Hilfiger revenues are planned to up 5 to 7% on a constant currency basis with Tommy Hilfiger North America increasing 4 to 5% and Tommy Hilfiger international increasing 7 to 8% on a constant currency basis. Including the negative impact of the foreign exchange, we are expecting that Tommy Hilfiger revenues to be flat to up 2%. Calvin Klein revenues are planned to increase 5 to 7% while our on-going Heritage businesses are planning revenue up 2 to…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) And we will take our first question from Adrianne Shapira from Goldman Sachs.

Adrianne Shapira - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

It was great to hear that the international business the Tommy is about planed, but perhaps maybe you can give us a little bit more color as to the sequential softening you saw, I mean clearly we know the environment there, but the slowdown is sort of the mid-singles from the mid-teens, if you can shed some light on that, that would be great?

Manny Chirico

Management

Well, I guess there is a couple of things on the retail side of the business if you talk around from the comps. As we came out of such a strong selling season in the fourth quarter we clearly had significantly less carryover inventory in the first quarter which had some, you can’t sell goods twice, guess is my point. So, we saw the real benefit of selling through goods sold dramatically in the fourth quarter than our comparative basis that was significantly less spring goods in the store than they were from the year before. So, I think I had some [four] goods in the store. So, I think that had some impact on the first couple of months in selling. No one can, it also continue with that 15 to 16% comp store increase. So, we are pretty satisfied with the 5 to 6% comp store increase that we are experiencing right now. It's running ahead of plan. It's running at very strong gross margins as you can imagine one benefit you get when you are much leaner on inventories seasonal inventory is coming out in the first quarter is higher gross margins as you go forward. So, I think those things will all benefit our profits in the first and second quarter.

Adrianne Shapira - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

And then just, as we step back and think about last year you handedly beat your initial guidance and it seems like it was driven much more by top line and SG&A control. As you said, the guidance for 2012 looks prudent and hopefully room for continued improvement given momentum continues. But where you sit today, maybe you help us think through where you think there is potential upside coming from maybe a shift from last year, more expensed control leads to perhaps this year, more opportunity on the margin. And how you see that opportunity pacing as we progress through the year?

Manny Chirico

Management

Well, I guess, I’d characterize it in two ways. I see the upside based on the sales trends right now and our plan. We are planning comps in North America when you put it all together probably in the 3 to 4% range. And right now for the first two months of the year, our comps are running up 10, 11%. So, clearly that bodes well for retail performance in North America, it bodes well for gross margins given how clean our inventories were coming out of the year, and see that kind of sell through. I think the expectation would be that our margins given the product course, the increases that we experienced for spring 2012 would be under more pressure and I think that actually could be that we could actually be flat in gross margin in the first quarter if the trends continue. So, I think that’s where significant amount of upside I think will continue to come. Clearly the Calvin and Tommy businesses in retail are driving that. On the Heritage side of the business, I also think that we are just in operating margin recovery. And I think that really could bode well for the second half of the year, particularly in a way we plan the business, we are not looking to do anything really heroic in the business compared to historical benchmarks. So, I think there is an opportunity there. And clearly our Tommy international business, this is about conservatively as we have planned the business coming out of the box. I think that’s very prudent given the volume it, but we really just have to see how sell throughs continue there and the current trends whether continue we really feel we can outperform those numbers as well So, I think in some ways, I think potentially there was we didn’t have some of the headwind that we had last year that we had this year. The biggest one being foreign currency, but absent that, I think we plan that all into our businesses and I feel as good this year coming out of the gate for 2012 about our projections and what they may actually turn out to be as I did at this time last year. So, I think there is no guarantees given the trend of the business we feel particularly bullish about it.

Operator

Operator

Moving onto our next question from Robert Drbul from Barclays Capital.

Robert Drbul - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Manny the question that I have is on the European side, can you talk a little bit about the geographic trends like country-by-country, what’s happening with the spring order book to the fall order book and any of the changes that you could call out from that perspective?

Manny Chirico

Management

Sure, I think there is a couple of things I think geographically it's exactly as you would expect, about 30, 35% of our business is in Southern Europe and that business is under more pressure. And for us, some of those markets particularly had been growing out of sales rate a year ago which was in excess of 20%. Italy now for fall is being planned mid single-digits. So, although we are still growing in a very, very tough market there that business has clearly has seen a shift in the momentum that we were experiencing and that’s clearly the environment that what’s going on with that consumer. I think Spain is a business that for us is being running up 4 to 5% growth and fall we are planning that business down slightly about 2 to 3%. Those are the two bigger markets just to give you sense of what’s going on in Southern Europe. In addition, we had a very, very strong fall holiday 2011 season where for our business our size to be growing 15 to 17%, and we fulfill those orders, had good sell throughs at retail, but the retail performance overall in Europe at department stores and in specialty stores, our key customers, most European retailers were reporting negative comps in the third and fourth quarter. So, I think there is a reaction that’s going on there, where they are open to buy dollars are being planned instead of being planned up as they were in 2011 for 2 to 4% growth. They are actually being planned for 3 to 6% negative open to buy dollars. So, in that kind of an environment with the overall open to buy is down anywhere from 3 to 6%. Your thought business has been planned on 4 to 5%. We are clearly outperforming the market and continuing to gain market share there, but it's just in a much tougher market, and you don’t want to take a much sales inventory risks given that kind of sales environment. So, we are trying to plan that business a little bit more conservatively and I think it gives the opportunity to maximize gross margins as we forward in our international business if the sales trends continue.

Robert Drbul - Barclays Capital

Analyst

And speaking about gross margins, Mike, can you put a little bit more detail around the drivers for gross margin in the first quarter and your assumptions around first quarter and full-year 2012 in terms of mix of the wholesale versus retail?

Mike Shaffer

Management

I guess, Bob, you cannot broke up, but in terms of the color we are thinking about our margins for the year up about 100 basis points. And there is really what’s going on is we have got a real favorable mix change in our business. We are seeing higher margin, higher gross margin, higher expense, higher operating margin Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger businesses growing faster than the Heritage business. So, in effect, we are going to see improvement in operating margins and improvement in gross margins.

Manny Chirico

Management

And the only other thing I’d say is in the U.S., the retail business is so strong, posting double-digit comp store increases that mix change also has the same dynamics and it's favorable both from an operating margin point of view and from gross margin point of view.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our next question from David Glick from Buckingham Research Group.

David Glick - Buckingham Research Group

Analyst

Manny, we are looking at 2012 a little more muted revenue growth outlook obviously lot of factors impacting that are a bit more transitory, but as you look out beyond some of those issues this year. I mean has your outlook changed in terms of the revenue growth potential for Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein. And if you could highlight some of the emerging opportunities that might accelerate that growth and what impact that may have on your operating margin moving forward and if the Heritage business recovery could obviously play a part in that as well?

Manny Chirico

Management

The opportunity really for both Calvin and Tommy, what we always talk about we plan the business. Those businesses will grow 8 to 10%. And given what’s going on long-term in those businesses, I search engines no reason why we will not exceed those numbers. On the Calvin Klein side, we continue to see strong growth with our royalty partners, there will be in the next two years you will see some shift as particularly given the CK Bridge business in Europe coming in-house. We believe that business long-term next 5 to 7 years is a $500 million business for us as we go forward. We think that has extraordinary growth given the platform that exist in Europe with our Tommy management team there given their expertise, given their establishment country-by-country, their knowledge of the retail base there, and the strength of the Calvin brand with the European consumer that we believe is significantly untapped. We clearly believe that that’s an opportunity for us to grow into that we can get too quickly. In addition in Europe in 2013 we take in-house, the tailored business, it's a solid business for us today, that’s somewhere in this €60 million range that we think over the next 4 to 5 years could grow to €200 million. That’s a strong opportunity for us given our selling base and converting from a licensing model to a direct sales model there at very good operating margins that we can leverage the infrastructure. So, I think those are just two pretty significant examples of where we think it's really dramatically grow the top line. With Calvin Klein royalties I think will continue to be driven by explosive growth in Asia and South America, given those high operating margins. I think the noise gets out of those numbers surrounding the CK take back, the reduction of what price that we have this year that will be behind us when we get through 2012. Hopefully, currency we said, becoming a headwind might become a tailwind going forward. So, I think clearly we don’t feel any less optimistic about the growth trajectory both for the Calvin and Tommy and in fact we think there is opportunity that will accelerate that growth 2013, ’14, ’15 and beyond.

David Glick - Buckingham Research Group

Analyst

And Asia obviously a part of that as well?

Manny Chirico

Management

Asia for us in Calvin is a licensing model. In Tommy we run some businesses directly, but the two big markets there India and China, I think will enjoy significant royalty growth there and as those businesses really start to come on, we own a 50% interest in India and about a 45% in China. And although we will be re-quoting those sales directly, we will be picking up some substantial income benefit as we go out to 14 and 15, a name we should also see an opportunity to potentially bring those businesses in-house as we have the opportunity to buy those businesses some forth in the future, that’s going to be an interesting discussion for us, but clearly those are two growth markets for the brand that we think has tremendous upside.

David Glick - Buckingham Research Group

Analyst

Last question, there is a lot of dislocation going on in the department store industry and this is more related to your Heritage business. You have increased distribution in ARROW, you have the IZOD shop opportunity at Penney’s. Can you give us a sense of how you are navigating the change there and whether this will be a positive neutral or negative for the company?

Manny Chirico

Management

I think we are well positioned as any company given our stable of brands. Our IZOD brand clearly has been identified by JCPenney as a significant growth driver for the business and Van Heusen is well positioned at JCPenney’s to also have significant growth there. Our Kohl’s business with Van Heusen and ARROW is well positioned there and our Macy’s business given our portfolio of brand. I’m just going to have Ken to talk about to give you some color on some of those dynamics.

Ken Duane

Analyst

David, in our Heritage business right now in Macy’s we have IZOD continues to perform, Van Heusen continues to perform, and as you come through with the JCPenney, our JCPenney IZOD initiatives begins really September 1, and it will get on board for August but September 1 we are going to pickup 400,000 square feet in opportunity there in IZOD and Van Heusen will be, although we will continue to have position, we will have shops in position for 2013 as we come around the corner. Kohl’s has brought in Van Heusen is performing very well and ARROW has been a good brand for them. So, we see opportunity as we have expanded our brand our distribution within the national change both JCPenney and Kohl’s with both Van Heusen and ARROW. So, we see market share gains.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our next question from Eric Beder from Brean Murray, Carret & Co. Eric Beder - Brean Murray, Carret & Co.: How should we think about the FX impact as we go through the year, and also how should we all see about costing and inventories and how are you planning those to go as we through 2012?

Mike Shaffer

Management

So, when you think about the FX impact, when we think about for the first year we talked about the impact being about 20 to 25 million. And at the same time we think about that being spread fairly for the first and second quarters, I’d think about somewhere about 5 to $6 million. The third quarter will be the quarter impacted the most and fourth quarter impacted the least. Overall, when we think about a penny move in FX we think about somewhere around 2 to $2.5 million of impact to our bottom line.

Manny Chirico

Management

Mike will talk about the EPS. I think the revenues that we categorize about $150 million will follow that as well. And then from a cost point of view, from a product cost point of view clearly the first quarter has being most impacted, I think the second quarter will have some impact, but we really given our second quarter aimed at July, we will have started to have some significant selling of full product at wholesale shipping a product in, and some given our outlet business, significant selling of fall product in the June-July period. So, it will be somewhat muted in the second quarter. So, clearly that cost issues will most dramatically impact the first quarter. Eric Beder - Brean Murray, Carret & Co.: And in terms of pricing, are you planning to call back any of the pricing here or you plan to try and utilize this lower cost to maybe get some additional margin gains? How you look upon that in the consumer’s ability to take that?

Manny Chirico

Management

Well I guess I’d characterize it this way. In Calvin and Tommy we don’t see any change in the pricing. We raised prices in spring 2011, we raised them again in fall 2011 and we raised them slightly for spring 2012. And we are planning to raise them in fall 2012, but we are planning to maintain the higher retail prices that we established over the last three season. And I think that’s pretty consistent with Tommy and Calvin and pretty consistent both domestically and internationally. In our Heritage businesses, dress shirts clearly benefited and AURs last year were up about 9% and in spring they were up about 8%. So, we don’t see any give back there, we will watch the market carefully. So, we are hoping to get some of the margin that we lost last year in those businesses back overtime and we are planning second half gross margins up year-over-year. And I think we feel pretty confident given the tone of business and the consumer’s acceptance of those increases.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Omar Saad from ISI Group.

Omar Saad - ISI Group

Analyst

I got couple of questions. My first one is on the Europe macro outlook, the change in trend it sounds like you are expecting or starting to see new businesses. How much of that do you think in your wholesale business where your retail customers are kind of reacting to what happened in the fourth quarter, which was a little bit tough on a weather standpoint. It was height that appears around the Greece debacle and the wholesale customers are just looking out to next fall and saying, it was little bit of a tough holiday season, let’s plan conservatively. And is that marry up with kind of what you are seeing in your own store, I know it's not a huge retail business for you in Europe, but does that, do they jive with each other and you are kind of seeing the same trend or is the department store react in the environment.

Manny Chirico

Management

I think department stores are reacting to the environment, I think they are clearly trying to manage their gross margin and inventory, given the what I’d characterize in Europe particularly at a department store level, you saw the comps, I think it was a relatively tough fall holiday season, blame it on weather, blame it on the macro environment. And I think when retail is doing on environment if they manage their inventories and we have got a sense that open to buy dollars are actually being cut on balance as I said before, 3 to 6%. So, I think that really what was happened. For us I can’t give you except strong performance. I can’t give you the great reason why we significantly outperform the market except the strength of the brand, the marketing that’s gone behind it, and our inventory position was very strong in order to really drive sale. We saw for the third and fourth quarter sales up, if you look at a combined probably 9 to 11%. So, given that kind of sales performance, given the macro environment we are not accountable putting on another planning for another double-digit sales increase in Europe. So, we are planning to visit somewhat more conservatively, we are seeing about mid single-digit comp store increases right now. I think that’s very good performance considering that our inventory position is good, but we didn’t have as much fall carryover of the product in those stores. And I think in February, March you continue to sell a lot of seasonal goods there from the carryover season. So, you can’t sell the goods twice I said that before. So, I think we are feeling good about how that’s all shaping up but I think as a reality just listening to what’s going on in the European market I think it's better for us to be more conservative in our inventory and our sales plans as we go forward.

Omar Saad - ISI Group

Analyst

One follow-up on the topic of Europe, as you think about this Bridge business you bringing back in-house and team you already have over there, Tommy platform with Fred and everybody. How do you frame that out, I know the Tommy business is actually really quite big, you talked about a $500 million potential for the CK Bridge business. How do you put it in context where Tommy is today, how Tommy got to where it is today in Europe. Is it analogous situation or are their differences, structural differences in terms of either categories or the price points or applicable markets for that CK Bridge sportswear business.

Manny Chirico

Management

The Tommy business is over 15 year period grew to €1 billion business and that business includes denim which is probably a €300 million business. So, when you think about the opportunity for Calvin, we don’t see any reason overtime as it develops a wholesale, retail strategy overtime why the Calvin business cannot be as big as the Tommy business. I think there are different brand dynamics, Calvin tends to be a more tailored business which is actually a very positive thing given the price points in tailoring, Tommy more of a casual business, sportswear business. From a design aesthetic they completely difference, so I don’t think there is a lot, there would be much cannibalization between the two brands. So, for us we think it's a perfect marriage as the two brand set along side of each other. But $500 million is a pretty big number that come out of the box and talk about. And I think we clearly need to if we execute given the talent on the ground in Europe it gives a huge leg up. The brand is well known in Europe, I think we will have a significant marketing launch the fall of 2013 when we re-launch the brand. And I believe those things will build momentum and excitement about the brand. And I think we will see some dramatic growth there at this point $500 million. I think as far as we are willing to go and we will play it out, but I think as you said to me, what could it be 10 to 12 years, I think overtime there is no reason to believe why Calvin wouldn’t be as big as Tommy. I think the only reason we are not, is we have an executed as well as the Tommy team has done throughout Europe.

Omar Saad - ISI Group

Analyst

And to iterate in your mind Tommy is by no means mature in Europe?

Manny Chirico

Management

I think that’s right, just given the kind of growth we are seeing significantly underdeveloped in some key markets, like France, like the UK, Italy, Russia and the Middle East. Those are clearly market that today are on round number €50 million markets that we think overtime could approach the size of our German business, our business in Germany which is well over €350 million. So , I think each of those markets have that kind of potential, so we don’t see any reason why that in the next three to four years why that business has slowed down.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Robert Ohmes from Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. Robert Ohmes - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Couple of questions, first just a follow-up on the North American comps for Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein. You gave the AUR on Heritage, what’s the AUR look like for them. And what’s the AUR plan look like for Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein for comps for first half versus back half.

Manny Chirico

Management

I’d say we are looking for somewhere for this year versus last year AURs to grow about 5%. That’s the plan, right now we are pacing pretty much ahead of that both at wholesale and at retail. And I think that will play itself out, I think we are really enjoying the benefit of being having significant clean inventories in all channels and distribution. We are benefiting from outperformance on the selling line which has allowed us to not be as promotional as our plans had called for. So therefore, AURs are going out the door higher. So, I’d say at least 30% of the comp increase that we are looking at above plan at our retail stores is just being driven by AUR improvement. So, I think that bodes well for gross margins as we go out. Robert Ohmes - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: And so the really strong comps that you guys are seeing quarter to-date for in North America ex-Heritage. Is the AUR higher for Tommy and Calvin in North America comps than Heritage right now?

Manny Chirico

Management

Yes, significantly. Robert Ohmes - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Okay. So, it's double-digit right now.

Manny Chirico

Management

Yes. Robert Ohmes - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: That’s great. Second question was just on the marketing plans for 2012 versus 2011. I was just curious if had anything to call out either by brand or by region sort of what you see yourself doing this year versus last year. Thanks.

Manny Chirico

Management

The plan is to stand in local currencies all in about the same that we have spend this year with a hope just like last year, if we outperform, we will continue to increase that to some degree. But we have really gotten those marketing plans up significantly over the last three years both in Calvin and Tommy. So, we really feel good about the spend, we look for opportunities to rally drive it. There are some product initiatives I really can’t talk about their some fragrance initiatives that will happen second half of the year, new master men's brand and there will be a lot of that, the Calvin Klein underwear campaign around Bold will continue to be very strong. So, I think you will continue to see the kind of marketing that you have seen this year, we are planning to continue to meet the Hilfiger campaigns, it's just been phenomenal for us, that campaign continues to have legs, it works very well on television and digitally and it works great at point of sale. So, we are really able to get leverage across the Board there with the Tommy campaign and we are really happy to continue to play out. From a PR point of view, Tommy with his American Idol appearances, has really given a shot in the arm to the brand, just becoming much more, is becoming more seen really been very positive for us from that point of view, he is a great ambassador for the brand and we plan to continue those initiatives throughout 2012.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Kate McShane from Citi.

Kate McShane - Citi

Analyst

Just a follow-up on the last question with regards to SG&A dollars spend for 2012. Like how should we be thinking about the cadence for that throughout the year.

Manny Chirico

Management

Could you just repeat it, you broke up I’m sorry.

Kate McShane - Citi

Analyst

With regards to SG&A spend for 2012, can you give us a little bit more color on the cadence throughout the year of how we should remodeling our increase in dollar growth.

Mike Shaffer

Management

Sure. For the first quarter, I guess for the year, we are talking about expenses being up about 40 to 60 basis points. And I think if you think about that for the first quarter with expenses be with operating margins being down 125 to 150, gross margins being down flat to slightly down. There is a bigger impact on expense in the first quarter versus the balance of the year. I guess that’s what I think about it.

Kate McShane - Citi

Analyst

And one unrelated question back to sportswear. I think you said during your prepared comments, that you do expect a turnaround in sportswear in Q2. And I wondered if you could identify what exactly is driving that, is that more margin recovery or is it more top line recovery. And have you had to rollback your prices in the sportswear category just based on that.

Manny Chirico

Management

Again we were talking Heritage, IZOD, Van Heusen, and ARROW. I’d characterize it's all margin opportunity and the whole Heritage story, historically our operating margins are being between 10 and 10.5% last year they were below 7.5%, but I think 7.2%. So, clearly I think there is a story over a period of time where margins will recover. If you look at our AURs in sportswear, out the door retails, when you factor in clearance in what happened in the fourth quarter, we saw no retail selling price increases last year at all even given this cost increases when you think about there was so much private label on the floor there was so much. The main floor was really crowded, too much inventory when we got to November everyone really started to get very promotional on the main floor, required us to do that liquidated goods. We moved as fast as possible to do that. The benefit that we really see is that they should with better control of inventory at retail in the channel, there really should be an AUR improvement, not by higher ticket prices or driving higher prices, but just by having less clearance and requiring less promotion. So, key will be watching inventory levels at retail, particularly on the main floor that really just should naturally come back to us without having to do anything heroic from a retail price point of view if inventories are controlled. And right now I feel is we are going to bring inventories on the floor and much better controlled than it were this time last year. And open to buy dollars are being planned much tighter, particularly in the mid-tier department stores where all brand play.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our question from Howard Tubin from RBC Capital Markets.

Howard Tubin - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

You have done a good job with inventory and managing inventories. How are you planning inventories really coming out of the spring season going into the fall season versus last year?

Mike Shaffer

Management

We are seeing a decline as Manny said, we're anticipating a decline in fall costing. So from a perspective of moving into fall we will be selling slightly more units in the fall of 2012. But the cost will be down. So I think you will see more of a relationship to sell as we move into the second quarter and third quarter and fourth quarter. We will see more of a inventories coming in line with sales growth.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our question from David Weiner from Deutsche Bank.

David Weiner - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Two quick questions, one on China just to follow-up on some of your comments. I think you mentioned in your interview last night that overtime over the next several years there will be a $1 billion brand in China for Tommy. Can you talk about or can you just tell where are those revenues right now. And then second, when I think about the Meet The Hilfiger campaign, I think that’s being running for right coming up on two years and to your point I think it's been a pretty successful campaign. What are you trying to do with the Tommy brand both at retail and at wholesale overtime in terms o positioning the brand. Are you trying to take at higher end or are you trying to take it someplace it's right now. What are the growth opportunities with Tommy in the U.S.? Thanks.

Manny Chirico

Management

Let me talk about China first, when that red light goes on the in the camera sometimes you get little ahead of yourself. So, $1 billion comes out pretty easily.

David Weiner - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

It's a round number.

Manny Chirico

Management

It's a round number, it seems to get Jim Cramer excited, so you take advantage of that. But all okay, I don’t know how to, China was such a hard thing to quantify. We are growing at both the Calvin and Tommy. We are growing 20% plus, 30% plus, Tommy are off to relatively small base. Retail sales in China are little bit over $100 million for Tommy. Clearly we don’t see any reason why that 20, 30% kind of the growth is going to slow down over the next three years. How fast that ramps up, how quickly we go after, how aggressive, but clearly if you start to extrapolate and get five years out, you get to some enormous numbers. So clearly I think if that Tommy continues to grow that consumer continues to develop the Tommy brand is well known in China, getting better known throughout China as it develops it's platform in Asia, Japan, it's platform in Hong Kong where the Chinese accounts, those China consumer are constantly travelling. I think clearly we look at that as a huge growth opportunity for the brand. Calvin somewhat like few years ahead of Tommy there. Warnaco has done a tremendous job in jeans and underwear, Club 21 has been outstanding in growing the CK business throughout China and Asia we have large platform in Asia with the Calvin business and I think that’s one of the reasons why it has gotten a jump start on Tommy. But I don’t feel compared to some of the other large U.S. brands, we are not behind anybody there at all. I’m saying some ways we are ahead of most. So, I think that’s a significant opportunity and we will continue to be a big growth opportunity as we go forward. Looking…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) We did have a question from Evren Kopelman [Wells Fargo Securities]. Please go ahead.

Evren Kopelman - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst

Quickly I want to ask about the Heritage business and kind of understand what were the drivers of the revenue decline versus what you were initially planning for. And is it really more of a function of the mid-tier channel or the mix of outerwear and sweaters? Could you help us understand that a little bit more. Thanks.

Manny Chirico

Management

I guess the sales came in in Heritage again let’s talk about, if you look at the fourth quarter we came in right where we thought we would be. We just really continued margin pressure. The selling shortfalls that we had in Heritage were in our sportswear businesses only, wholesale sportswear business is only the (inaudible) business last year was very tough. The IZOD women's business was very tough and IZOD men’s business was very tough. There was some product issues, sweaters you talked about, and outerwear to a degree but I think it was more of an issue really on the main floor, moderate price national brand is under a lot of pressure. And I think that whole main floor sportswear area, private label, really saw pressure. I think if you look at sales performances at retail, it was our customer base. I think the mid-tier players were in the more pressure. And I think the Macy’s business which was very strong had great performance in their accessories, cosmetics, and their collection businesses. And the one area that was tougher for them tended to be main floor sportswear overall on a relative basis. So I think it was just was a weak area overall and the real mix for us in the Heritage business and principally the sportswear businesses was gross margin dollars and not so much from sales. But I think by really getting control of the inventories getting back over the next 24 or so months, I think we could work our way back close to that 10% operating margin in that business than where we are today. Thanks Evren. With that we would like to close the conference call. I thank everybody for their attention and for joining us for that, and we look forward to speaking to you at our May conference call, the first quarter results. Have a great day everyone.

Operator

Operator

And once again ladies and gentlemen that concludes today’s conference. We appreciate your participation today.