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Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 5, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Restaurant Brands International Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kendall Peck, RBI's Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kendall Peck

Analyst

Thank you, Bailey. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Restaurant Brands International's earnings call for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024. As a reminder, a live webcast of this call can be accessed on the Investor Relations web page at rbi.com/investor, and a recording will be available for replay. Joining me on the call today are Restaurant Brands International's Executive Chairman, Patrick Doyle; CEO, Josh Kobza; and CFO, Sami Siddiqui. Today's earnings call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks set forth in the press release issued this morning and in our SEC filings. In addition, this earnings call includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures are included in the press release and trending schedules available on our website. As a reminder, following our acquisition of Carrols Restaurant Group, which closed on May 16, 2024, and our acquisition of Popeyes China, which closed on June 28, 2024, we introduced a sixth reportable segment Restaurant Holdings. This segment includes results from operations of Popeyes China business and the Burger King restaurants acquired as part of the Carrols acquisition. The consolidated growth metrics discussed during the prepared remarks, including organic adjusted operating income growth organic adjusted EPS growth exclude results from our Restaurant Holdings segment. And now I'll turn the call over to Josh.

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

Thanks, Kendall, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Our teams and franchisees are doing a nice job navigating difficult macro and competitive environments in the U.S., Canada and many of our international markets. The brands winning today are consistently executing the fundamentals. They are serving fresh, delicious food and beverages in modern restaurants and providing excellent value to every guest on every occasion. We see the power of great fundamentals and great value in our own businesses, including Tim Hortons and our International division, which drove nearly 70% of our adjusted operating income. Tim Hortons, for example, remains #1 value for money in Canada, and it is one of the only major QSR brands in the market with positive traffic growth in the year-to-date. And our international business continues to outperform many of our largest global peers. Our goal is for all of our businesses to provide compelling value to guests the right way, with quality products, exceptional service and unmatched convenience. If we can do this, we'll outperform the competition and deliver sustainable growth for our franchisees and our shareholders. Turning now to our results. Comparable sales were relatively flat, up 0.3% year-over-year, and net restaurants grew 3.8%, which translated into system-wide sales growth of 3.2%. Our cost discipline helped to offset softer system-wide sales growth, resulting in organic adjusted operating income growth of 6.1%. We've been encouraged to see the business accelerate in October, with consolidated comparable sales up low single digits, led by improvement in International, Burger King and Popeyes. With only 2 months remaining in 2024 and year-to-date system-wide sales growth of 5.3%, we believe full year system-wide sales growth will come in slightly below the expectations we laid out for you in August. That said, our year-to-date organic adjusted operating income…

Sami Siddiqui

Analyst

Thanks, Josh, and good morning, everyone. Our results this quarter highlight the stability and strength of our businesses and our team's ability to navigate a tougher consumer backdrop, while staying focused on our long-term goals. For the third quarter, global comparable sales were relatively flat, up 0.3% year-over-year. We grew global system-wide sales by 3.2%, organic AOI by 6.1% and organic adjusted EPS by 4.6%. AOI growth outpace system-wide sales growth this quarter for a few reasons. First, segment G&A, excluding Restaurant Holdings as of the decrease related to lower equity-based compensation. As I mentioned on our Q2 call, incentive-based compensation is expected to decrease year-over-year. We've also been working closely with our business leaders to drive operating leverage in our P&L, and you're seeing the benefit start to flow through this quarter. Second, we continue to work through lower average cost of inventory in our Tims supply chain and CPG businesses, which contribute full year supply chain margin will be approximately 19%, meaning Q4 margins should be in the mid-18% range. These 2 factors, segment G&A and supply chain were partially offset by incremental advertising expense at Burger King U.S. and net bad debt expenses in the quarter. We invested $7 million behind fuel to flame marketing at Burger King U.S. as compared to no direct investment in the prior year, $2 million of net bad debt recoveries in Q3 of '23. Shifting now to EPS. Our adjusted EPS was $0.93 increased 4.6% per share year-over-year, excluding an FX headwind of $0.02 per share and a $0.01 benefit from Restaurant Holdings. Our adjusted net interest expense increased approximately $18 million during the quarter, mainly driven by a higher debt balance following our Carrols transaction, which closed in mid-May. In addition, we saw an increase in adjusted income tax expense…

J. Doyle

Analyst

Thank you, Sami, and thank you to our teams and franchisees who are doing a terrific job delivering value to our guests through delicious products and improved experiences. One of my routines is to do a gut check from time to time. On average, are we doing a better job than we were a year ago. And I strongly believe that to be the case in each of our businesses. Our customers is what ultimately drives growth. And while we all understand those elements to be the foundation for all restaurants, I believe our progress on these customer benefits sets us apart, and is what ultimately drives great returns for our franchisees and our investors. We all know the environment has been more challenging, but we are not allowing that to impact our plans. We're outperforming our largest global peers. We are actively addressing the areas of our business that have fallen behind and we are protecting profitability for our franchisees and our company, all while positioning our brands for last in success. We have a remarkable business in Canada, one that I can't remind you enough generates over 40% of our adjusted operating income. Tims continues to outperform the industry and deliver strong absolute results. The discipline Axle, his team and our dedicated restaurant owners have had executing against the multiyear back-to-basics plan has been paying dividends for the past few years. I am confident it will continue to do so for years to come. International has many pockets of strike, but there are a few markets where we're struggling a bit. In some cases, this is due to macro factors out of our control. But in others, there's more we can do to change our trajectory, and we are tackling them head-on. You saw us take control of…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from the line of Brian Bittner from Oppenheimer & Company.

Brian Bittner

Analyst

I wanted to ask my question on the international business and focus specifically on Burger King International, where you had almost a 2% positive comp, which is nicely above our global peer set, as you talked about in your prepared remarks. Can you just unpack this outperformance versus your peer set a bit? Is it related more to just a better market mix of exposures across international? Or do you actually believe you're taking share in most of your major Burger King international markets? And what do you believe is behind an improved international trend as we're moving into the fourth quarter? .

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

Brian, it's Josh, and thank you for the question. I do think our Burger King teams in a lot of our international markets, they're doing a fantastic job. And that's leading us to take market share in many of those markets. I'll give you just a couple of examples that I think for me, really brought home how we win in some of these places. We were in Australia a couple of months ago with the Hungry Jack's team led by Chris Green and Jack Cowen, who's own that business for a very long time. And they're just doing a fantastic job. They're getting all the basics right. They're really engaging their teams and their managers. They're delivering high-quality products. They've been really focused on quality enhancements and the perception of quality and communicating that quality across the menu and really elevating the perception of the [indiscernible], and they're outperforming by a healthy margin. I just -- I saw this again in Japan 2 weeks ago. We were there, and that's a fantastic example for us. It was a market that was struggling, if you go back kind of 5, 7 years, we had under 100 restaurants, and the team just really got all the fundamentals right. They've really driven product quality. We follow a lot in our brand trackers and who has the best burger in the market, and we win by a big margin in Japan. And I think that's the critical formula. You got to get the operations right, have high-quality locations and really win on product quality. And thankfully, we've got the best burger in the world with the Walker. When we get that right and really land it well with consumers, we have the opportunity to outperform really meaningfully. So we've got a lot of markets like those 2, Spain is another great example. Brazil is doing well. But some of our biggest markets are -- they're getting the basics right, and they're outperforming and taking market share. And I think that's what you saw in the quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question today comes from the line of John Ivankoe from JPMorgan.

John Ivankoe

Analyst

The question is on growing the Burger King U.S. franchisee base from 300 franchisees to 500 franchisees, which -- it's obviously a very big change, especially considering I think you'll have a lot more than 200 new franchisees that enter the system. So that's just kind of like the big theme, but the specific question that I want to ask is specifically on the Carrols units that you presumably would have the most opportunity with. If there is some discussion or plan or were any further along, of making general managers in a lot of cases, actually more responsible for some of their specific units, which would really be more consistent with how other systems that I'll say, remain nameless at this point, but other systems have become very successful in the U.S. is making people that formerly worked in the restaurants to become franchisees.

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

John, thanks for the question. You're right that there's a big change we're contemplating in the BK U.S. system in terms of the franchisee base, and we do expect to have a lot of new franchisees. I think they'll come from a few different places. And we're in the midst of a lot of these discussions. We've already started either discussions or we've done a few refranchisings already. And there are a couple of different profiles that we have. Some -- I think some of our new franchisees will be folks who are already on our teams. So some of our field team members within Burger King U.S. or on the corporate side or running some of our company restaurants, we have some of them who are interested in becoming franchisees, and we're in discussions for them to take over portfolios. We're also in discussions with some of the folks at Carrols and could be a general manager, a district manager or director of operations. Some of those team members have ambitions to run their own business, and they might take over a smaller portfolio of 2, 5, 10 restaurants. So we're having a lot of those discussions. And I think that's really exciting. In my mind, and I think you sort of hinted at it. I think the idea here is that there's something very powerful if we can get closer ownership of those restaurants, whether that's how you compensate the general managers or having smaller franchisees who have ownership of the business or in the restaurants and the communities every day. I think there will be a lot of different versions of the exact form of that. So there may be smaller and larger versions of how we accomplish that, but it's very much front of mind to us that having more local ownership in the business at the restaurant level is really the key to outsized performance and taking market share. And I think that you'll see that be a big piece of what we do over the next few years at Burger King in the U.S. Patrick, do you want to add anything?

J. Doyle

Analyst

Yes, John, what I'd add to that, and obviously, my past life, I know well what it's like to have the local owner operators in the restaurants. And it's a powerful thing. And if we continue to make the progress on franchisee profitability and the returns that you get by building or buying Burger King restaurants and in fact, all of our brands. The capital becomes easy. What's hard is the operations and having great dedicated local owner operators has to be the answer. And I've said this before, but franchisees are people refer to them interchangeably as owner operators, and the owner part of that is relatively easy if the cash flows are there. The operating part is the critical part, and we're dedicated to that. And the best example of that, the reason that we are the -- and we take the learning from that. Now we're going to have big franchisees that are going to have success in the U.S. Those are operated at a high level, and there are many of them. We love having them in the system to have an opportunity to be a part of the system.

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

John, maybe just add one last thought there. It ties a little bit back into Brian's question too. I mentioned the outperformance of Australia. And one of the things that I think Jack and Chris and the Hungry Jack's team have been really focused on, and it's been a big driver of the results is a program where they're doing a bigger profit sharing program with some of their restaurant managers. And I think that's really powerful to engage and empower our restaurant owners. And some of that thought process is already starting to get into our company restaurants. So we've started more substantive profit-sharing programs with some of the restaurant managers in our company restaurants at Burger King as well. And those restaurants are doing really well. Our company restaurants, especially the ones that we've acquired and run over the last few years are really starting to outperform the system. So we're seeing some exciting things on that front, and we'll continue to take those learnings and expand them as they work.

Operator

Operator

The next question today comes from the line of Dennis Geiger from UBS.

Dennis Geiger

Analyst

I wanted to ask a bit more on the unit growth outlook. Maybe if you could speak to any key considerations or notable impacts for the rest of '24 development beyond BK China, which you spoke to? And maybe just at a high level, that global unit growth opportunity as we look ahead over those next few years and your ability perhaps to offset some of the BK China pressure with contribution from other market and brand combinations? .

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

Dennis, I don't think we have too much additional to add on '24. But just as we think about kind of looking out towards 2025 and beyond, I'll highlight a few of the things that we're working on and where we see some good progress. First and foremost is Burger King in the U.S. We've seen a ton of progress there from a moment in time not too far back where we had a drag from that closures to where we're getting pretty close to flat here. And I think a lot of that is driven by the progress that we've seen on franchise profitability. As we mentioned earlier, we made a huge step forward last year, and we're still doing well this year. So I think that's been a big driver, and I think that will continue to be a tailwind as we look into 2025 and beyond. We've also been making progress in a couple of our other U.S. brands. Firehouse is starting to pick up a lot. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, our trailing 12-month net restaurant growth is up 60%, and we expect to make even further progress through the balance of this year and into next year. So that's starting to become a more material contributor. And Tims in the U.S. is starting to have more positive momentum. We think we'll have a good year this year. Kath and her team have put together a lot of new development agreements for that business. So we've got a good outlook for Tims in the U.S. Just as important, perhaps growth in Canada, which means there's opportunity for more Tims. And there are particular pockets that the team has been going after, and I think you'll start to see some benefit from that next year.…

Operator

Operator

The next question today comes from the line of David Palmer from Evercore ISI.

David Palmer

Analyst

Just 2 areas that maybe you could make another comment on, with regard to China and Burger King China, I know that's going to be a situation that you have some limited ability to comment on. But what is our best guess about -- you mentioned that 3.5% this year could have been the 5% without China being a drag. And they would be great to have that reinflate as quickly as possible. How long time do you think it could be before you get China growth back up to where you want it to be on comps outlook for Tims Canada. That's not one of the markets that you said accelerated in the fourth quarter, you had a 3% comp, which was still quite healthy given the world we're in right now and traffic appears to be pretty good there. But how do you feel about that brand market share outlook going forward initiatives for Tims?

Sami Siddiqui

Analyst

David, it's Sami. I'll just tackle the first part of your question and a slight correction on China. Our long-term growth algorithm [indiscernible] in terms of unit growth. China represents about 100 basis points. So 1 point of that 1.5 point roughly shortfall. So as I said, we are actively working on an amicable solution there, and we will update you when we have more to share. . I'll turn it over to Josh to expand a little bit more.

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

Yes. Just add a little bit to what Sami said. I would tell you the business performance there has been challenging in the short run. But I'll tell you, we are all very committed and very excited about the long-term prospects for the Burger King business, and all of our businesses, frankly, in China. It's been the #2 QSR market in the world. We think we have brands that have every right to win in that market. And we're going to make the right decisions to support that long-term growth. Just I would ask for a little bit of patience and time like you saw with Tims and Popeyes. Sometimes the stuff takes a little bit of time for us to work through, and we'll keep giving you updates as soon as we have anything material to share on that front.

J. Doyle

Analyst

Yes. Yes, I'm going to add a little bit of perspective on this. It's interesting. The China business, if you look at our business and where it is, and frankly, all 3 of the brands. While we've got some scale, it is still relatively early in their journey. And our bigger competitors and peers there. If you look at the businesses of Yum! and Starbucks and McDonald's, they are kind of at a point where their cash flow and probably Domino's as well. They're at a point where to fuel their growth. We're in a position where we still need fresh capital to go into these businesses to develop these businesses at the pace that we think we need to do to get them to the scale that we want for the long term. We are very bullish on the medium and long term. But we've got some things that we've got to work through, and it still requires some capital. So I wish right now as China became more complicated that we were a little bit further along on that journey, but we're committed to getting there, and we're going to work through it. And one of the things I believe in strongly on everything is we are not just going to talk about the things that are going well in our business. We're going to talk to you about the things where we think we need to make improvements. And that's not only important for you to know, but it's important for franchisees and team members who are listening to this call to know that when we talk about things we need to get better at, we're serious about it. And we're going to talk to you the same way we talk to everybody else about where we need to make improvements. The one thing you asked about Tims and I'll do that, and Josh can add on as well on that. But what's changed in Tims is fundamentally ticket growth. The bulk of our growth in this quarter was from order count growth from ticket growth, not from check growth. And so it's a very healthy business. We feel great about where Tims is in Canada when we were putting up bigger numbers a year or 2 ago, a lot of that, while it had good order count growth, a lot of that was also just from the inflation that was in the market as inflation has worked its way out of the market, you're seeing what we think is a very sustainable growth.

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

Yes. Just to reinforce what Patrick mentioned. What makes me feel so good about Tims, both the current performance and the outlook is they're doing all the basics right. We're all the underlying fundamentals of the business, the operations are getting better. We're remodeling more revenue, and as I look out into 2025, we have a great pipeline of new innovations both on the food side and on the beverage side. So I think if we keep doing what we're doing, keep bringing new exciting innovations to Canada, we're going to keep seeing good results there. And that's why we feel good about that business.

Operator

Operator

The next question today comes from the line of Gregory Francfort from Guggenheim Securities.

Gregory Francfort

Analyst

I just wanted to double click in on Popeyes. I think it's around 30% of your international growth, more than 100% of your domestic growth. Comps flow in kind of both regions this quarter I'm just wondering what happened, how you bridge back to improve comps? And then [indiscernible]

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

And as I mentioned, I think we've probably had a little bit of a gap in terms of the value offerings. And we saw that, and I think we fixed that as we got into September and October. And that's a meaningful part of what I mentioned in terms of the turn in global same-store sales performance going from about flat in Q3 to positive low single digits in October. So Popeyes saw a meaningful uptick once we got those value offerings in. So I think we're back in a better place with Popeyes. As it pertains to cash on cash returns, that's primarily driven by franchisee profitability. And we reported a pretty big step-up in franchise profitability last year. We're also making a bunch of progress this year. While sales have been a little bit softer in the last quarter, we found a lot of good opportunities to be smarter on the cost side. And so we're seeing a healthy uptick in franchise profitability, and that's ultimately what drives cash-on-cash returns and that unit growth that you've continued to see being pretty strong.

Operator

Operator

The next question today comes from the line of Lauren Silberman from Deutsche Bank.

Lauren Silberman

Analyst

Just a follow-up on Tims. Can you just talk about the cadence of the trends that you saw throughout the quarter? And any changes perhaps that you're seeing in the competitive environment? Are you guys implying that we should see pretty similar trends in the fourth quarter versus what you saw in the third quarter? And then my larger question is just on the 2025 guide, any thoughts on the puts and takes of underlying growth?

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

Lauren, thanks for the question. I'll take Tims and turn it over to Sami on the '25 question. We're not going to get too much into kind of the intra-quarter dynamics there. But I would just reinforce, we saw good healthy growth throughout driven by transactions. So it's pretty good. And you can tell with -- more driven by improvement in BK and Popeyes. So give you some sense in the aggregate of what's going on, but we'll probably wait to update on the kind of on the specific business performance until we get through the whole of Q4.

Sami Siddiqui

Analyst

Think about the implications of Reclaim the Flame on what the outlook looks like for next year. You're absolutely right. Going into next year, we will roll off the multiyear ad fund investment that we have put in. As a reminder, it's around $60 million at the year that we contributed this year. So that $60 million structurally will franchisee profitability threshold. The franchisees will now take their ad fund contribution up from 4% to 4.5% for next year. So the aggregate ad fund will still be in a good place. But structurally, that investment will come off our P&L next year. I'd say the only other dynamic to keep in mind with Reclaim the Flame is the capital investments alongside the franchisees that we make around remodels. We do expect the remodels to accelerate going into 2025. So you'll see those investments hit cash, the vast majority of it will be the roll-off of the $60 million going into 2025 which should be a nice tailwind for adjusted AOI and EPS.

Operator

Operator

The next question today comes from the line of Danilo Gargiulo from Bernstein.

Danilo Gargiulo

Analyst

I have a 2-part question forward expanding our value messaging into 2025 and even evolving the structure of their value menus. So I'm wondering how you might be responding to that change in competitive dynamic? And the second part is, you were shedding healthy expectations on profitability for Burger King in this year and next year. What's your expectations for other brands? And maybe if you can dwell on the most positive feedback and the biggest data opportunity that you are receiving from your franchisees on each of the brands?

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

First on Burger King in the U.S., I think what we've seen, and I think this plays out, especially in what's happened in October is Burger King in the U.S. and really around the world, we do best when we've got good value offerings, and we have things like the $5 your way elite for a while. But we also paired that with relevant innovation and a big focus on the whopper. And you saw that with what we did with Adams family. We did a really cool Wednesdays whopper with the purple potato bun, and a lot of really innovative sides, and that's what really drove the business to perform the best it has in a fair while here. And I think that shapes a bit of our thinking as we look into Q4 and really into next year. We do need to have good value offerings. We think we have something right now that works really well for the business. We may tweak it slightly into 2025, but I think we're pretty happy with it overall. But as much as that, we want to make sure that we have relevant innovation and big whopper focus, really elevating our flagship whopper that -- when we have both of those things, I think, is when we perform our best, and you'll see us try to balance those as we get into next year. In terms of franchise profitability, I think the good news here is that in the 3 of our 4 kind of domestic businesses and the 3 biggest ones, we're making good progress. We mentioned already that Burger King is doing well this year were kind of stable to slightly up already. And we're seeing progress in Popeyes, as I just mentioned. And of course, with Tim Hortons, we've had great sales, and that's been followed with some good progress in franchise profitability. So I think it really speaks to the focus we've brought to franchise profitability that even in a year that's been a little bit more challenging on the sales side, we're continuing to make progress in making sure that the unit economics of our biggest businesses are healthy and improving, I think that's really important to us and to our franchisees.

Operator

Operator

The next question today comes from the line of Sara Senatore from Bank of America.

Sara Senatore

Analyst

I got some -- 2 maybe questions on Burger King U.S. and Tims Canada, respectively. What I wanted to map Burger King is you mentioned some strong outperformance in October. I guess it seems like there's just been more movement back and forth share shifts in the market than historically has been the case. And essentially, whoever has kind of the strongest tie-in. So I guess, are you seeing any improvement in the overall demand for the category versus other -- perhaps other categories? Or are you and that your franchisees can hit their EBITDA goals because it does seem like maybe you've harvested some of that low hanging fruit, if you will. And so it's been a little bit more of street site, if you will, on the ground and -- rather than [indiscernible] you talked about strength in the I think you heard some of your competitors have had very strong breakfast business, breakfast and maybe taking some ground in the afternoon and the net effect is sort of kind of consistent with the overall Canada fact market.

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

Thank you for the questions. First on Burger King in the U.S., I think there are some signs of some improvement in the category. I think it is the case that what we saw in October was some improved performance of some of our marketing initiatives. I mentioned the Adams Family that was a really great partnership that we did there that was very successful, both on the flagship offer. But also on some of the slides that really resonated, whether it was Things Rings or new Curo Fries, those did fantastic. So I think when we get the marketing right, and when we really focus on the whopper, we tend to do really well. And I think that helped us take some share here in the near [indiscernible] gas out, things like inflation have been persistently trending down on gas prices have come down a little bit recently, and interest rates have started to come down. And I think you can start to see that reflect to trend upwards. So it's early, but I think there are some positive signs for overall industry demand as well that are a bit encouraging to us. And with respect to the Tims business, we're really doing pretty well across the business. I would mention just on -- both the afternoon, we already talked about, but also on breakfast, our breakfast food was up 5.8% year-on-year in the quarter. So we're actually doing pretty well across the business. And as I said that's what gives us confidence as we go into Q4 and into 2025.

J. Doyle

Analyst

Weak. And Tom his team are doing an amazing job, but maybe more importantly, the franchise may see some short-term back and forth based on who's running what promo at which time. What gives us real confidence in what gives our strong operators in Burger King real confidence is they're seeing systemic improvements in service levels that are driving stronger sales, they're seeing still the kind of mid-teen lifts as we do remodels. We're seeing these fundamental things as our restaurants look better as we give better service that are driving sales for them. And we just need to continue to drive progress on those initiatives. And we frankly need to have more and more of our Burger King franchisees join the top half. But our big advantage is we do have those core improvements that we can make in our business, and that's going to drive results, which is what gives me some confidence that while you will see some short-term back and forth based on who's doing what, we've got the ability to improve -- continue to improve fundamentals, and that's what got us from underperforming the category a few years ago to performing kind of in line today, and it gives me confidence on how we can outperform into the future.

Operator

Operator

The next question today comes from the line of Jon Tower from Citi.

Jon Tower

Analyst

Just a couple of quick ones for me on the Burger King U.S. business. First, I just want to confirm, you guys are still on track to launch the $1 million Whopper campaign. I think it was November '24 when you guys had initially gone after it with the consumer? And then secondly, can you just speak to the returns you're seeing in the remodels. Obviously, you're talking about the sales lift, but just the aggregate investment required so far and paybacks you're seeing to date?

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

John, it's Josh. On the first one on Burger King U.S. and the $1 million dollar offer, yes, that is still planned for November. And sales, and as we mentioned, it's coming a little bit better than that. So the realized returns on average are coming in a little bit better than we expected. And we usually target those for sort of a low teens return on capital. So pretty happy with what we're seeing there so far. And I would tell you, even some of the recent ones we've seen some of the new sizzle restaurants are really amazing. I'd really encourage everybody to check them out. They're beautiful. But also some of the sales results we're seeing on those have been really fantastic. We've done a bunch here in Miami with our company restaurants with some tremendous results so far. So I am very excited to see more and more sizzles out there in the market as we get through the end of this year and especially into next year. I think it's a really transformative image that really elevates the brand in the market.

Operator

Operator

Our final question today comes from the line of Christine Cho from Goldman Sachs.

Jon Tower

Analyst

So I was hoping whether you can shed some light on any trends or spending shifts you've seen across various income cohorts specifically, I think in the last call, you did mention the [ 5,000 deals ] are actually successfully driving trial and participation, particularly in the lower consumer cohort. But how does that look in terms of repeat and frequency, especially for that part.

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

Yes, Christine, I'd say nothing too new to call out this quarter in terms of income cohort performance. Most of the trends have been pretty consistent over the last few months there. So I don't have anything else particular to add there that we found notable.

Operator

Operator

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. So I'd like to pass the call back over to Josh Kobza for any closing remarks.

Joshua Kobza

Analyst

Great. Well, thank you all for your time today and all the great questions. We look forward to updating you again on our Q4 results in early 2025. Thanks, and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.