Good morning, and welcome to the Quad's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Conference Call. During today’s call all participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions]. A slide presentation accompanies today's webcast and participants are invited to follow along, advancing the slides themselves. To access the webcast, follow instructions posted in the earnings release. Alternatively, you can access the slide presentation on the Investors section of Quad's website under the Events and Presentations link. [Operator Instructions]. Please note, that this event is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Katie Krebsbach, Quad's Investor Relations Manager. Katie, please go ahead.

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. With me today are Joel Quadracci, Quad's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Staniak, Quad's Chief Financial Officer. Joel will lead today's call with a business update, and Tony will follow with a summary of Quad's fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results, followed by Q&A. I would like to remind everyone that this call is being webcast and forward-looking statements are subject to safe harbor provisions as outlined in our quarterly news release and in today's slide presentation on Slide 2. Quad's financial results are prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. However, this presentation also contains non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted diluted earnings per share, free cash flow, net debt and debt leverage ratio. We have included in the slide presentation reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures. Finally, a replay of the call and the slide presentation will be available on the Investors section of quad.com shortly after our call concludes today. I will now hand over the call to Joel.

Thank you, Katie. And good morning, everyone. Beginning on Slide 3, I am pleased to report we delivered solid 2023 results, meeting our guidance across all metrics. Our results included adjusted EBITDA above the midpoint of our guidance range, and adjusted EBITDA margin consistent with 2022, despite an 8% decline in annual net sales, created by a significant postal rate increase that was well above the rate of inflation, ongoing economic uncertainty, especially in early 2023 and the impact of elevated interest rates on the financial services sector, leading to reduced direct mail budgets. I will share our share more detail on our net sales breakdown shortly. We ended 2023, with strong free cash flow, that was near the high end of our guidance range, and used our cash generation to further strengthen our balance sheet, reducing our net debt leverage to two times, our lowest leverage levels since 2017. Since January 1 2020, we have paid off $564 million in debt, a 55% reduction over four years. Through 2023, we also continue to return capital to shareholders through share repurchases, we will continue to be opportunistic in terms of our future share repurchases. And, as we announced last week, we have reinstated a quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share. We remain confident in our ability to address business impacts, including long term expected organic declines in large scale print, due to our well established and disciplined approach to managing all aspects of our business. This includes treating all costs as variable, aligning our cost structure to revenue opportunities, and optimizing our print manufacturing platform by consolidating work into plants, where we can achieve the greatest manufacturing efficiencies, and subsequently selling assets no longer required for business operations. At the same time, we continue to aggressively push forward on our…

Thanks, Joel, and good morning, everyone. Slide 14 provides a snapshot of our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results. Net sales were $788 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, down 11% from 2022. For the full year, net sales were $3 billion, down 8% from 2022. The net sales decline was primarily due to lower print, paper and logistics sales as well as the 2022 divestiture of our Argentina print operations. Print volumes were negatively impacted by ongoing external headwinds, including significant postal rate increases, economic uncertainty and the effect of elevated interest rates on specific clients. Adjusted EBITDA was $66 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 as compared to $79 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, and adjusted EBITDA margin declined 8.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $234 million in 2023 compared to $252 million in 2022. However, adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 7.8% to 7.9%. The decrease in full year adjusted EBITDA was primarily due to $11 million of lower pension income as well as the impact of lower sales partially offset by benefits from improved manufacturing productivity and savings from cost reduction initiatives. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.23 in the fourth quarter of 2023 as compared to $0.41 in the fourth quarter of 2022. For the full year, adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.52 in 2023 compared to $0.89 in 2022. The decline was primarily due to lower adjusted net earnings and was partially offset by the positive impact from share repurchases. In the fourth quarter, we continued to return capital to shareholders through share repurchases. And since the second quarter of 2022, we have repurchased 5.9 million shares or approximately 11%…

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Kevin Steinke of Barrington Research Associates. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Joel. Thanks for taking the questions. Nice job on the fourth quarter results and getting to the low end of your prior leverage ratio range, and also it was good to see you reduce the targeted range going forward. But I want to start out by asking about just the sales outlook as you think about 2024, you mentioned expected organic declines in certain product categories. Maybe just touch on which categories you're expecting to decline and the factors behind that. I talked about interest rates, economic uncertainty as well as the postage rate increases, and then as well, can you just kind of touch on what you saw in the various categories in the fourth quarter as well as full year 2023?

Yes. I think probably -- Kevin, this is Joel. The best way for me to kind of walk through that is start with 2023, and we'll kind of roll forward with what we can say. And we always talk about large-scale print is where we continue to expect organic decline, especially in retail inserts, and it's been a double-digit clip for many years, and that's just one of those lines that we just manage and we manage it down and get great free cash flow from that. So it's a manageable process. The thing that happened in '23 at the beginning of the year, I'd say two themes. One would be economic uncertainty. We are hearing that from our clients. I think everyone was hearing it around the world. And that definitely sort of muted a little bit how they were sharing with us their 2023 plan. You could see it being built in. The other part was significant interest rate increases like, as you know. And where that really impacted us hard was on direct mail because we had a pretty big exposure to the financial segment, including one main player exiting the consumer banking business. And so with large interest rates, you saw a very big pullback in direct mail and especially amongst consumer lending services. So that's what impacted that. The second theme that I would say is really important is that the post office decided they were going to -- they did an early increase in the first part of the year, but decided to go forward with a significant increase in the middle of the year with a combined 10% to 14% increase in our clients' biggest cost. Clients did not expect the second one, and so they had already locked in their budgets for…

Yes, absolutely. That was great color. So as I think about 2024, it really, from your comments, it feels like it's more -- the expected decline is more weighted towards the postal rate increases than perhaps economic uncertainty. Is that fair to say?

That's the way we're looking at it. And I'll remind you though that in large-scale print, we continue to expect double-digit decline, and that's what we've been saying for years. But in the areas of like catalogs, direct mail, that would be accurate.

Okay. And you mentioned working with the government on perhaps trying to reverse or slow this trend of increasing rates. I don't know, obviously, is one of the largest mailers in the U.S. You probably have their ear a bit. I mean I don't know if they're getting a lot of pushback, I would suppose from other large mailers. And just wondering what you think your level of influences or the industry's level of influence? And do you have any sense as to whether they were surprised by these volume declines? Or are they -- I mean what their thinking is after seeing these volume declines, I guess?

Yes, what we've been told is they don't believe in something called elasticity that volume declines are because of digital disruption. And if you talk to a lot of mailers out there, they say we went through a lot of the digital disruption, but we still use catalog and direct mail in our mix. And that this particular era is about this huge increase in cost. I mean it would be like telling me that my biggest cost labor is going to go up 57%, and I have no ability to pass it on to my customers because most of the world is stuck at raising prices somewhere in the CPI range. It's just the math doesn't work. Now no one single person can influence this, but we speak on behalf of a lot of different mailers. We work in conjunction with the C21, which is made up of a lot of different groups. I've testified in Congress multiple times as we got the post office huge relief just a couple of years ago after working on a bill for 10 years. They save billions of dollars by not having to pre-form retirement health care and things like that. But the downside was is they got released from having to capped their postal rates at the same rate that everybody else in the world is capped at about CPI. And no one thought they would go to extreme levels like this. And it just logically doesn't make sense. You don't run a business this way. So we're hitting it, but I will also tell you there's a lot of big players out there in the non-profit world. Non-profits are getting killed by this. And you think about the ARPs of this world, that there's a lot of other players who do a lot of their own lobbying that you will see a lot of -- right now, there's a lot of people screaming. And ultimately, it's getting Congress' attention and hopefully, the board of governors who will oversee it to bring some rational behavior to bear. And again, it's not going to go away, but I think that they should be worried about a massive taxpayer takeover, which no one wants because there's too much of that going on.

All right. That's helpful. Thank you. I just also wanted to touch on, you mentioned there the loss of a longtime grocery client, maybe -- just what happened there? And how you would expect to maybe kind of backfill that over time?

Yes. We will work to backfill it. I hate losing clients. This client, we did a lot of complex things for across multiple services. And the two things I'll just say on it is that, we need to get paid for what we do. We're not asking to help the world, but we have to get paid for what we do with all these complex services we do. And I'll also say that the -- this customer is also managing through some very significant complexities of their own. So I'll leave it at that.

Understood. I mean, yes, that's kind of what I was thinking maybe you touch on is perhaps the profitability wasn't there. So maybe it's not as significant or large of an impact to your profitability is perhaps your revenue.

Yes. I just think it's just so important for my employees and my shareholders that as we invest in all these things, that we get paid a fair price. That's all we ask. We get paid for a huge benefit we're giving people by providing all this integration, postal savings, all the different things that we do. And so sometimes, that results in answers you don't like, but the best answers for the long term of my company.

Understood. Great. So I also wanted to talk about agency solutions, your end-to-end bargaining solutions and the demand you're seeing there. I think you mentioned a strong business pipeline. So maybe what you're seeing on that front? And if that continues to be resilient in kind of these uncertain economic times?

Yes, I'd say that the pipeline is actually -- is heating up nicely because remember, we just relaunched our brand a year ago, and a lot of this is about opening up the aperture to clients we never had access before. And so we really weren't direct to CPG and things like that. We weren't always in the agency space or viewed as it of providing media solutions. And so we really ramped that up this past year. I mean, a couple of years ago, I never -- I'd never thought I'd be telling you that we're redesigning the brand look for Titleist Pro V1. When you look at what we shared about Wolverine today, think of this as a flywheel. It's not just an agency solution I want to win, I want to win the relationship. And any entry point is a great entry point. So Wolverine, we entered in -- we're able to suddenly offer them quite a few different products and services to solve their problem. I'd like to see if we enter into a creative space with someone that suddenly then we're talking about for packaging, for instance, how does then that package appear on in-store. Let's talk to our in-store people. By the way, with our retail media network we're launching as we start to help manage your media spend, we'd love to take the data that comes out of the retail media network to sell CPGs on advertising within the store with eyeballs, but then using the data that we get out of that experience to further go after new audience. And so think of this all as a big flywheel that's speeding up. And it's creating a lot of revenue and will create revenue across a lot of the print channels as well, especially in targeted print. And I think, Wolverine is a great example of that.

Okay. Great. So when I think about the sales guidance and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges for 2024, as you map those out, what are some of the factors that maybe gives you the high end or the low end of those ranges as you think about how the year might play out?

I think on the -- this is Tony, Kevin. I think on the revenue perspective, from the economy standpoint, we've assumed kind of the similar economic environment to how it is today kind of lasts throughout 2024. To the extent that the economic environment substantially improved and the marketing spend, thus would improve along with it, we could benefit from that on the sales side. On the EBITDA side, I'd say we're going to continue to look at how we can improve productivity. We did a lot of that in 2023, but we're still continuing to work on that in 2024, and the benefits of automation that we just put in with a couple of large wide web presses that we put into the United States. We're putting one into Mexico this month. And those can all provide profitability improvement for us. And then I think it comes back to what Joel said about the flywheel and how that can just continue to generate sales from print leading agency or respectively agency of print.

And then the one last point on the revenue side is what I've been talking about, the wild card is a bit of how does this postal thing play out. Do they hold steady on their strategy, or do other thoughts come into play that correct that.

And Kevin, I would just say on the guidance, we're happy with the fact that we're maintaining profitability despite these revenue pressures that you're hearing from us with the postal rates. So even resulting in a slightly improved adjusted EBITDA margin as we are improving the profitability on the margin. So happy about that.

Absolutely. Yes, as I looked at the guidance that clearly stood out to me, essentially flattish profitability kind of within that range at the midpoint despite the projected sales decline. So, maybe just a couple more here. Just on any more commentary on DART Innovation, just in terms of size or purchase price quantitatively or qualitatively and any other color commentary on what that brings to you?

Yes, it was -- from a size of a deal, it's not a large deal, but it's an important one. That team has been around for several years, working with a very large retailer currently that they've deployed it in for several years now. The exciting thing is that we brought to the table this opportunity with Save Mart, who's leadership, our veterans in the grocery business. They know the business. They know it well. They know us. They trust us. And the fact is, is we're already launching on a rollout with them to test in their stores for hopefully a bigger rollout as well as with other retailers. So this is a very important step because if you follow the world of media, retail media networks is a huge conversation right now to the point where you just saw Walmart by Vizio to try and leapfrog into this space in their own stores. And so for us, it's a real opportunity to help the people who aren't of the girth and size of the Walmart to actually be able to play in the same space as they are and get control of that all-important data of what happens within the store.

Yes. I think Kevin, exciting that take Quad's relationships, which got up to the very highest level of retailers combine that with DART's offering of what they have assembled, and we think there's significant possibility to scale and it ties in, quite frankly, with the discussions we're already having with physical in-store signage, and now digital in-store signage, rounding out our offerings to that group of retailers.

Great. And then lastly, I'd just like to ask about reinstating the dividend. Certainly, that was welcome, I think, and just maybe the thought process that went into your decision to reinstate the dividend?

Well, I think first and foremost, the sustainability of it. As we've wanted to come back to that point, we're very careful about the balance sheet. I think we've proven ourselves that we've really done a great job of focusing on paying down debt to very low levels, and we'll continue to do that. But we feel that launching a dividend at this size is very sustainable for us. Would we love to revisit it in the future? Of course, and we will to see if we can do more, but at this point, we like this as a great sustainable starting point. Tony?

Yes. I'd add, Kevin, we -- Quad was a long-time dividend payer. That was -- it's important to us to reward our shareholders. And so at the beginning of COVID, we stopped the dividend. It was the right prudent decision at the time. We focused on debt, got down to the low end of that range, our previous range of 2.0. And now to Joel's point, can revisit turning this back on and providing that return to shareholders. So happy to be able to do that.

Okay, great. Thanks for all the commentary. I’ll turn it back over.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Barton Crockett of Rosenblatt. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions here. And you guys have covered a lot from the presentation in the Q&A. But just stepping back, I mean, one thing I would appreciate kind of your perspective on Joel, is I think the real opportunity for your shares is to get back to a place of revenue growth. And what would it take to get there? I mean, do you need as kind of a prerequisite for that, the postal service to go to normalized kind of price, CPI price growth versus the outsized growth? Does that have to happen? Or is there a world where you can grow revenues again even if the postal service continues down the road that it's laid out?

Yes. I mean we're going to continue to grow revenue through all the other services. I mean, in-store year-to-date was up 12% at the end. So that's an example of how we're doing that, and that comes from some of that multi feature relationship that we do with people. Certainly, more rational thinking of the post office would significantly help. And in fact, if you didn't have that type of increase last year, we were feeling really good about sort of that flip point of having to deal with organic decline versus new revenue coming in. And so were we there yet? No, but we are heading that direction. And then with this surprise where people got caught, like I said in the second half, we saw that significant reaction to it. I think the question is the post office keeps their trajectory, the customers will have to be very smart about how they manage through it with other cost initiatives and trying to pass on to customers. And so how that plays out will be seen, but I feel good about our ability to manage through it. I mean when I saw the postal increase happened last year, we closed a significant 40-year plant of ours that I had a very close relationship with for many years. I pulled forward closing that because of the postal increase just to make sure we can manage ahead of it and consolidate. And so that's what we mean when we say we treat all costs as variable. If we see something happen on volume in core traditional lines, we know how to react to it. But at the same time, we'll continue to grow all the other offerings, which will impact things like catalog, direct mail, packaging, in-store and agency. So -- but when you get that onetime surprise, there's a big reaction that typically happens. And I hope even as they go forward, I'd hope to see that moderate, but it certainly puts some of the onus -- a lot of onus on the customer base to be able to figure that out. But the bottom line is, is the catalog works, direct mail works. So it's an important part of the go-forward media mix for people because that media mix landscape is a challenging one. You still have to sell your product.

Okay. All right. I appreciate that. Now I guess if you look at kind of the some of the question marks around the longer-term revenue trajectory. I understand your guidance for this year, but even after this year, there are some unknowns. To what degree should we expect you guys to continue to reduce debt? I know your next maturity is 2026, but there could be an argument if revenue pressures continue for some time to keep reducing debt. How do you guys kind of feel about that?

Yes. I think you have to look at debt levels and leverage in conjunction with the business you're in and your ability to manage challenges. In a growth business, people would say we're underleveraged. In a business like this, I think we're being very prudent because of those unknowns. And I would tell you, we will continue to pay down debt until I see something different. And that's why I like the balance of a sustainable dividend we're doing, being able to still opportunistically look at share repurchases, but I want to see that same question answered. And therefore, we want to continue to keep paying debt down, which is why we changed our guidance on the leverage range. Tony?

We have -- you heard this when we went through the slides, but roughly speaking, 50% of our debt is fixed, 50% of it is floating interest rate. And so with the rates where they are right now, in addition to just being prudent on debt leverage to Joel's point, it saves real money as we can pay down debt, and then use that lower interest spend, use the cash from that to put it into growth of the company. We still dedicate 2% of our revenue to capital expenditures. Yes, some of that is maintenance, but there's also large prices that we're putting in, in automation to continue to make things more efficient, and more technology spend as we continue to innovate. So you'll see us move money in that direction, lowering debt helps in that regard, and happy to do the dividend.

And another thing, Barton, if you look back at where we come from in our strategy, when we started playing a consolidator in the core business that -- where the product lines are shrinking, it was about managing good, strong free cash flow by making sure you put the work in the most efficient plants and then squeezing down the platform as volume went down. So it's not just the cash isn't just on a regular basis, isn't just from yearly free cash flow. It's from expected sales of those assets that you close and sell as the organic decline happened. And so the two of them have resulted in that huge ability to pay down debt, mean we went through a pandemic, and we're still paying down debt. That's because we treated all cost as variable with closed plants as the volume dictated it. And so that ability is there to manage what goes to us. But meanwhile, this flywheel of all the other services and driving other large invoices in print will continue to go.

Okay. That’s very helpful. Thank you, guys.

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Joel Quadracci for closing remarks.

Okay. Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. I just want to close by reiterating my confidence in our team and our strategy and in our future as a marketing experience company. Our pipeline for new business remains strong thanks to our unique offering, and we will continue to prioritize growth in verticals and product lines with the greatest expansion opportunities while managing all aspects of our business for long-term strength and stability and shareholder value creation. So with that, we look forward to speaking to you next quarter.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.