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Ryder System, Inc. (R)

Q3 2009 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 22, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to Ryder System Incorporated Third Quarter 2009 Earnings Release Call. All lines are in a listen-only mode until after the presentation. (Operator Instructions). Today's call is being recorded. I would like to introduce Mr. Bob Brunn, Vice President of Investor Relations and Public Affairs for Ryder. Mr. Brunn, you may begin. Robert (Bob) Brunn: Thanks very much. Good morning and welcome to Ryder's third quarter 2009 earnings conference call. I'd like to begin with a reminder that in this presentation you will here some forward-looking statements within the meeting of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectation and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in economic, business, competitive, market, political and regulatory factors. More detailed information about these factors is contained in this morning's earnings release and in Ryder's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Presenting on today's call are Greg Swienton, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Robert Sanchez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally Tony Tegnelia, President of Global Fleet Management Solutions and John Williford President of Global Supply Chain Solutions are on the call today and available for questions following the presentation. With that, let me turn it over to Greg.

Gregory T. Swienton

Management

Thank you, Bob, and good morning everyone. This morning we will recap our third quarter 2009 results, review the asset management area and discuss our current outlook. After our initial remarks, we will open the call for questions, so let me get right into an overview of our third quarter results. And for those you have following on along on the web, on page four, net earnings per diluted share from continuing operations were $0.51 for the third quarter 2009 as compared to $1.29 in the prior year period. The current year's quarter included a net $0.01 benefit to EPS this year. This resulted from a $0.04 benefit related to tax reversals, partially offset by a $0.03 restructuring and other charge primarily related to a debt tender offer. In 2008, the third quarter included a $0.03 net benefit related to tax law changes. Therefore excluding these items in each year, comparable EPS from continuing operations were $0.50 as compared to $1.26 last year. During the quarter, we successfully closed all of our South American and part of our European supply chain businesses in accordance with our previous announcement. As such, the results from these businesses have moved into discontinued operations in the financial statements. If you include the $0.08 EPS loss from discontinued operations in the quarter, EPS would be $0.43. Excluding $0.04 of restructuring charges on the discontinued operations, comparable EPS including discontinued operations was $0.46. All the financial information we'll review today is based on continuing operations and excludes the results of Supply Chain's discontinued operations in South America and part of Europe. On page 5, total revenue for the company was down by 20% from the prior year. Total revenue reflects lower fuel services revenue, lower operating revenue and unfavorable foreign exchange rate movements. Operating revenue which…

Robert E. Sanchez

Management

Thanks Greg, turning to page 11, year-to-date gross capital expenditures totaled $468 million, down by almost 500 million from the prior year. Spending on leased vehicles declined by $268 million or 39% year-to-date. Lease capital was down due to lower new and replacement lease sales as customers continue to downsize their fleet. Lease spending is also down due to a successful implementation of our strategy this year to increase the number of lease term extensions and increase the use of surplus and other midlife vehicles to fulfill new lease sales. These actions reduce the requirement for new vehicle purchases to fulfill customer fleet needs in a lease product line. Year-to-date gross capital spending was also down due to lower spending on rental vehicles of $167 million, in line with our plan to spend virtually no capital in rental this year. As we look ahead to 2010, we expect to spend some capital on rental vehicles next year to refresh the fleet and reduce the fleet ageing. In the third quarter this year, we realized proceeds primarily from the sale of revenue earning equipment of $151 million, declining by 61 million from the prior year. This decrease primarily reflects lower used vehicle sales pricing. Including proceeds from sales, year-to-date net capital expenditures were 318 million, down by 416 million from the prior year. We also spend 86 million on acquisitions, primarily on Fleet Management's acquisition of Edart Leasing in the Northeast U.S. in the first quarter. Turning to the next page, we generated cash from operating activities of 759 million year-to-date, which was 136 million below the prior year. The decrease was mainly due to lower net earnings and differed taxes partially offset by higher deprecation. Deprecation increased largely due to higher adjustments in the carrying values of used vehicles, the…

Gregory T. Swienton

Management

Thanks Robert, page 15 summarizes key results in our asset management area. As a reminder, beginning this year, we are reporting asset management statistics on this page for our global FMS operations including Canada and the UK. Previously, this information was only presented for U.S. operations and we've included U.S. stats and parenthesis for historical comparative purposes. At quarter end our global used vehicle inventory for sale was 7800 vehicles, up by 2300 units from the prior year, but down by 1200 units from the end of the second quarter 2009. We're very pleased by the reduction we achieved in our used vehicle inventories this quarter, which are now at a high end of our target range. We expect used vehicle inventories to remain near current levels through year-end. We sold 5200 units during the quarter, up 3% from the prior year. Used vehicle sales were relatively stable throughout the quarter. Compared to the third quarter 2008, proceeds per vehicle sold decreased by 24% on tractors and 29% on trucks. Compared to last quarter, proceeds was down by 6% on tractors and 4% on trucks. For tractors, we saw the continuing impact on pricing of soft market conditions, but sold a significantly higher number of tractors this quarter, up around 25% from the second quarter. For trucks, U.S. proceeds per unit increased. However, the U.S. increase was offset by price declines in Canada and Europe. We expect tractor pricing to remain weak while truck pricing is expected to remain stable in the near-term with potential strengthening in both of the vehicle classes by mid 2010. At the end of the quarter, approximately 11,000 units were classified as no longer earning revenue. This was up by 3,300 units from the prior year. But more importantly was down by 1,400 units from…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question today is from Jon Langenfeld. You may ask your question and please state your company name.

Jon Langenfeld

Analyst

Robert W. Baird. Thank you, good morning.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Good morning.

Jon Langenfeld

Analyst

Greg, talk a little bit about the extension side of the business. You've had some good luck there, good success there. But how, what's the typical length of that? And then is there any ability to have another extension on the tail end of that, or are the trucks simply too old at that point?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Well, I think, yeah I think the extension effort has been good. And appreciate your comments calling that success rather than luck. And that's certainly the intent. The normal would be about a year I would guess would be a good norm. It could be less. As far as an extension beyond that, it really will depend on our judgment of the remaining life on the engine. So depending on how many additional miles are on it and the status of the maintenance when it's reviewed as it comes into the shop, it could be extended longer, but that's totally dependent on how we view the status of the equipment. So I mean it's not infinite, but it could be extended a bit longer.

Jon Langenfeld

Analyst

Okay, great. And then can you talk a little bit about retention rates just generically like you usually do in terms of what you are seeing there relative to pervious quarters?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Yeah, I would... I'll let Tony comment a little bit as well, but from my point of view, I think we clearly have done a good job of retaining customers. The issue is retaining the number of units because of the volume that they need to move, but beyond that I'll let Tony comment.

Anthony Tegnelia

Analyst

Jon, Our retention rate as you might expect based upon Greg's comment with regard to the non-renewal business is down a bit from last year. But it has been flattish for the most part since the second quarter. So we do see the retention rate down a bit, but the extension strategy is really helping that quite a bit as well. But we're at satisfactory levels on retention right now is what we would expect to see given this environment, but we have seen with regard to retention an abatement in the request for fleet reductions coming in from the customers. As you may recall from some earlier conference calls, we were getting a lot of frequency on requests from customers to reduce the size of their fleet. But right now what we are seeing are really good signs. As Greg mentioned, the decline in mileage is abating and so are the requests for reductions in their lease fleet. So those are both two positive indicators for us on lease. Right now we see retention stable, but a bit lower than last year.

Jon Langenfeld

Analyst

And Greg, you talked about how did the revenue comparisons get more challenging in FMS simply because of the contracts rolling off and annualizing those. But per change, could you have a better competitive position that offsets that in the near-term? Looking at some of the smaller players out there that can't get funding at an attractive rate or even looking at your larger competitor who appears to be more on the sidelines these days. What would be your thought there?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Clearly, your opening statement indicates the truth that there is a lag on the upside for the lease portion of the business. Because unlike miles driven or commercial rental or used vehicle sales pricing, that tends to react fairly quickly once things really improve. The decision to commit to a longer term lease is where you have the lag and as more time expires and goes by and more equipment expires, it's going to be tougher for the comparison. Now as to competitive position and availability of cash and credit and ability for funding, that will remain to be seen when we see a market recovery. Certainly, many private firms have relationships with banks and when they are solid, that's not an issue; if they are not, then that could be more challenging. But it is way too early to speculate whether that will be an issue or not, but in our case no matter relative to anyone, we have solid access to capital. We've got a great balance sheet, we have plenty of cash and we are in a solid position whether competitors are strong or weak.

Jon Langenfeld

Analyst

Very good, and then last question just a few number questions. Could you tell me how many much losses you booked to depreciation? And then did the depreciation change you mentioned in your prepared remarks was that new to this quarter and expected kind of on that same $4 million run rate going forward?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Yeah, we did make some adjustments to depreciation calculations because of our assessment of the environment. And if Robert, you have that handy, I'll let you answer that.

Robert Sanchez

Analyst

Yeah, we have Jon, the impact of increased depreciation because of the vehicles that are used, truck center was 4.7 million. And in addition to that we had accelerated depreciation impact of another 4 million. And that one should recur.

Jon Langenfeld

Analyst

I'm sorry the difference between the two?

Robert Sanchez

Analyst

4.7 million was the writedown for the vehicles at the used truck center and 4 million was the incremental accelerated depreciation for vehicles that are going to be getting to the used truck center by December 2010.

Jon Langenfeld

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Robert Sanchez

Analyst

Okay.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. David Roth. You may ask your question and please state your company name.

David Roth

Analyst

Yes, Stifel Nicolaus. Good morning gentlemen.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Good morning.

David Roth

Analyst

First on the FMS side, can you just talk a little bit about kind of how the margins should over time get back to where we saw them in '04 to '07? My understanding is utilization of the rental fleet is obviously key, pension hit hurt some commercial rental side is a big factor. And is there other things I'm missing there that could help return to double-digit FMS margins?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Yeah, I think you got the two big ones right at the top. Rental recovery will be very important because a lot of that will be flowing to the bottom line on the upturn. Pension was the hit that we took this past year, what I think you'll also see in the future will be used vehicle sales and also improving returns because miles driven on existing leases will improve. And Tony, if there is any beyond those Big Four, you can add those.

Anthony Tegnelia

Analyst

No I think, clearly the biggest item is the return of the pull through on the rental fleet as it becomes more highly utilized. Pension was significant for us and the impairment charges on gains and things of that nature, when that reverses, we think all that will fall right to the bottom line, dramatically improve margin. And there is no incremental asset investment required to turn around any of those three items from an incremental NBT point of view. And those three items are clearly significant.

David Roth

Analyst

On the maintenance side, is the margins on the contracts with related maintenance above average, below average? How do we think about the growth in maintenance and its impact on the margin in FMS?

Anthony Tegnelia

Analyst

Well on the contract maintenance side, they are holding steady pretty much, before we bring any of those units into our network, we do revaluations on those units in advance. They typically are of an older vintage, they are not new units. So we investigate and look at the units very carefully before we bring them into the fleet. So our margins in that regard are highly predictable in that product line and they are stable right now with our expectation.

David Roth

Analyst

And then the fact about the lower lease sales having a negative impact on customers asking for fleet reductions. How much is the fleet is up for renewal next year? Is it any more than normal, is it roughly 20%?

Anthony Tegnelia

Analyst

Actually, our retirement next year based on term outs of the leases will actually be down a bit in 2010 compared to 2009. And for the most part, it's our normal 16 to 20% of the fleet on average. But we will be down on number of term outs next year as structured by the leases.

David Roth

Analyst

And then when the customers are coming to you asking for fleet reductions, I know it varies widely, but on average is it a 5% reduction or are they asking for 20%? Kind of what's the magnitude there?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

It does vary. It's not at all in the 20% range, it is about 2 to 5% probably in some instances, but it is fortunately as not as high as 20% at all. And those vehicles are relatively quickly redeployed and as Robert mentioned, that helps us preserve our capital and have a constant revenues stream. So we've solidified some good relationships with customers with that program. And we're confident that when their fleets increase, they will get that business.

David Roth

Analyst

And then just a question on Dedicated before I pass it on, you mentioned the lower freight volumes and the higher safety insurance costs caused the reduction in margin and operating income there. Did volumes decline sequentially in that unit as well because normally I thought that Dedicated did a little bit better in the third quarter than the second quarter or was the access the main issue?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

I'll let John Williford comment on that for you. I think volumes were about flat sequentially. So that comment about volume being a main contributor to margin decline really relates to the year-over-year decline in margins and volumes.

David Roth

Analyst

Okay, so is the accident and higher hire safety cost really hurt the margins more than the volumes?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

For the sequential decline, it's really primarily driven by the higher insurance cost.

David Roth

Analyst

Okay, excellent, thank you very much

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Edward Wolfe, you may ask your question and please state your company name.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

Thanks, hey guys.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Hello.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

Can you give us more flavor on SCS? Has is it been that for all these years, there have been more losses than I realized in Latin America, so the profitability of the business has just been greater? How much of it was the ramp up of what was going on with clunkers and the autos and, now that you're gone be writing down Europe, how do we think about what the right NBT margin is for instance and what the right underlying revenue base of SCS is right now? I mean we're seeing things move so quick, your NBT margin goes from 1.1% in second quarter to 6% plus in second. And a lot of moving parts here, can you help me with SCS going forward?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Yeah, you're right, there are many moving parts. In fact, we've gone from a loss in the first quarter to 6% return in the third. So a lot is going on. I'll let the John Williford comment.

John Williford

Analyst

Yeah hi, first, you've got a lot of questions in there, but first I think the normal margin for this business would be something like 4 to 5%. And I think in a decent economy and kind of a normal GDP growth economy, we can get that to 5 to 6%. What you're seeing in this quarter, we had a very good operating margin in this quarter, and that's a result of several factors. One is... the most important was that our auto team really did a good job of managing operations efficiencies. A lot of that is costs takeout and a lot of it was matching our people and equipment with where the volume was going to be. So that was one benefit. The second was we had a good mix this quarter, an unusually good mix in automotive so that even though our volume was down year-over-year, we had an improvement in operating margin year-over-year. So an example of that would be... and normally in lots of quarters there is some plant that we have fixed costs at somewhere that's down. And in the third quarter, even though our total volume in automotive was way down year-over-year, we didn't have any real... we had consistent volume, we didn't have any big closure costs or downtime costs. So that mix helped us in this quarter. And then finally, we have some initiatives in kind of the warehousing side of our business that I think have improved our results at some of our big warehousing projects. And if you looked at last year's margin, we did reference one operations problem. And so we've solved that and we've improved our warehousing operations for several other warehouses. So those three things kind of add up to a really good percentage margin quarter. That's probably a little higher than our long-term sustainable margin target.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

That's all, very helpful John. But when I think about the discontinued piece, how do I think about how that was negatively impacting margins if I go out the last couple of years? Obviously it's probably worse now in the last 12 months in the market, the environment we've been in. But how much of a drag has that been as you look back on it and then the same for Europe. Is there going to be another... when we look at a year ago and you restate the discontinued for the comp next year, is that going to look better because we have gotten rid of Europe next quarter?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

It will look better at in Europe but not nearly the magnitude in South America. And generally, as we specifically said last year in South America, we had a particular issue in challenge in Brazil. So that shows up really more significantly in '08 versus '09 and why the improvement seems more dramatic. But if you go back prior years, it would not have been so significant.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

Okay. And is the base of revenue it is 300 million in third quarter and then we're rating down Europe, how do we think about what a good base of revenue before any, you loose anyone again anybody going forward is without Europe now ?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

We're looking at some numbers now. So the Europe impact Ed is about 6 million in the quarter.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

That's it for revenue?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Yeah, for what remains for operating revenue in the quarter yeah, not much there.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

Okay, that's very helpful. Robert, can you talk a little bit about D&A guidance going forward? I heard you say some of what happened in the quarter was ongoing, some wasn't. What's a good place holder for fourth quarter as D&A was 220 in the quarter?

Robert Sanchez

Analyst

Well, I'd say in the fourth quarter you should expect that number to come down slightly as the fleet count and lease continues to decline because you will now see in the full run rate of the accelerate depreciation, you also see in the impact of the right down of the vehicles of the used truck centre which I, as you heard Greg mention earlier, that inventory is down relative to where it was at the beginning of the year. So I think at this point, you'll see depreciation expense come down slightly from that 220 level.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

Okay. At this point is there any CapEx? I know you spent a lot of time on that in the future. But is there any directional guidance for CapEx for next year versus 2009?

Robert Sanchez

Analyst

I think the only guidance that we mentioned was that we will be... we do anticipate spending some money on refreshing the rental fleet. We still haven't finalized what that amounts going to be but that will... it will certainly be more than it was this year at which we didn't spend any money.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

Okay. And can you take us through utilization for the kind of month-by-month in rental and how that looked?

Robert Sanchez

Analyst

Yes, I can do that. Our utilization month-by-month in the quarter was pretty much right at the 70.8% that Greg could really... spoken about. So we're very pleased with the progress that we've made in reducing the size of the rental fleet. And we find that utilization really stabilizing and we believe that you'll start to see those comparisons year-over-year even improve from what you've seen so far this year. A lot of effort has been put into that. We are starting to see the benefits of the improvement in utilization year-over-year relative to those changes. And we expect to continue see the benefit of that fleet reduction going on into next year. And the fact that we've kept the used vehicle inventory levels low than are (ph) actually down, those units typically when they are out serviced out of the rental unit go to the UBF, they're also being sold off the UBF. So we're enjoying that improved utilization on the rental product line and the balance sheet is nice and clean since those vehicles have been sold.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

Just bigger picture, in the past I've always thought of commercial rental as a good leading indicator of the economy and we hear from a lot of places the economy is slowly coming out of the hole and getting better. But we're just not seeing that it sounds like in demand for commercial rental this time around, how do you think about that?

Robert Sanchez

Analyst

Well, I'll tell you where we first see it we believe is where we really would like to see it. And that is a reduction in the declines if you will of the utilization of our lease fleet. So as Greg had mentioned earlier, the reduction in the mileage decline is really significant to us because what that means is that our private fleet operators are beginning to increase the utilization of their fleet. And that is the first indication we feel that things may be improving when those utilizations or those private fleets rise, then they'll have a higher propensity to rent after they've been a bit more comfortable with the solidification of their volume, then they will come back to lease and increase the size of their lease fleet. So first we'll see it in improved utilization of our private fleet operators fleet, then we think we'll see it in rental as well.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

And when... is there a way to look kind of month-by-month and into October of how the utilization of your private guys fleets have looked from a mileage standpoint?

Robert Sanchez

Analyst

Yes. And it did improve each month sequentially through this quarter. So as we saw there, their mileage decline abating, we were very pleased to see that and it continued form each of the three months of this quarter. And as Greg mentioned, this quarter is the best that we've achieved so far this year.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

How far are you still down from a year ago?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

In mileage?

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

Yeah.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

It's about 6% for the quarter compared to last year. But as Tony said, in the three months, July was down 7%, August was down 6%, September was down 4%. So the decline was getting less bad.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

And was the comp fairly similar in those ones?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Lease power unit? Yes.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

Okay. One last one, and I will let someone else have it, how do you think about now that you are going to start repurchasing shares, is there a thought process in how you are going to do this by quarter or certain amount? Or is it going to be based on weakness in the stock, how long should we think about for you to complete what's your going to back to now?

Robert Sanchez

Analyst

Ed, the authorization that we have out there, the two for the 300 discretionary which we have 130 remaining and the 2 million impact dilutive, which we have 640,000 shares remaining, expires in the middle of December, December 13. So depending on market conditions and really what we see in our business, we would likely move to execute on the share repurchase during this period during the fourth quarter. But again, that's still up in the air depending on what we see. As we've said in the past, we don't really look to time the stock. We really look it as a lever that we use to make sure that we've got the capital structure at the right leverage and as an efficient way to return money back to the shareholders.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

So rather than seek an increased reauthorization in terms of time, the goal is to try and complete it before it's up?

Robert Sanchez

Analyst

Yeah, right now, what we're looking do is execute in the fourth quarter, again subject to any changes in the market.

Ed Wolfe

Analyst

Okay, thanks everyone for the time. I appreciate it.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Alex Brand you may ask your question and please state your company name.

Alex Brand

Analyst

Hey, Stephens, good morning guys.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Good morning.

Alex Brand

Analyst

Just a couple of quick questions from me, when you were talking Greg about FMS comps getting tougher, you were talking about revenue right, because the extensions are good for cash flow and earnings, but hurt the revenue, is that the right way to think of it?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Well it will affect lease operating revenue and earnings because the comps reflect a lower number of units. So you get the impact from having fewer units.

Alex Brand

Analyst

Right, I got you, that makes sense. And just one other, when we think about your customers, fewer tractors and utilization is down. Internally, I assume you are tracking pretty closely the selling into new business. Can you... you've talked a lot about the trends of existing stuff getting a little better. What's the trend look likes for the selling into the accounts and new business that we can't see?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Alex, I think there are two aspects to that. First of all historically, a lot of our new business has come from existing accounts with the solid relationship that we have with those customers. And that has abated this year as well. That's down actually quite a bit because as we said, they are actually reducing the size of their fleet. As far as what we call new customers, we have a very solid pipeline for that. We are holding our discipline on prices for that and we're not dissatisfied with how we're doing competitively in the marketplace with bringing new customers into the fold. We think when the 2010 engines come into the economy with their unknown aspect from a maintenance point of view and also with their very expensive prices, that will also be compelling reasons for new customers to come in and convert to outsourcing to leasing and maintenance. And we feel very good about that as well. But the pipeline is strong. We have maintained our discipline as well through this period with new customers. And we think we are in a very good position; we have also maintained our sales force out there as well during this period of time so we don't loose touch with all those new customers. Generally speaking, we feel we have done okay with those in the marketplace. Where we have been down a bit is new growth with existing accounts but as we discussed earlier, we maintained solid relationships with them and working with them and I need to reduce their fleet and they'll be there for as when they come back

Alex Brand

Analyst

Okay. That's all I have, appreciate the time.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Todd Fowler you may ask your question and please state your company name.

Todd Fowler

Analyst

Hi, good morning, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Hello.

Todd Fowler

Analyst

Greg or maybe Tony, just a question on some high level trends within the leasing business, looking at both service lease revenue down about 3% year-over-year during the quarter. Can you talk about what you're seeing with regards to pricing either on I guess probably more relatively on new leases that are going into service? So how much of the decline is related to vehicles coming out versus what's going on in price?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

I would say that and Tony, can comment further that the changes in the revenue and the earnings are not coming because we've got lower prices and lower returns on the new business we're signing. That's not the case, the lower returns are coming from fewer miles being driven and fewer units in service. For the new business that we signed, we are very careful and Tony and his team are very focused on getting the right returns on any new lease that we sign. It does have an EVA target, we measure that on every single unit as a part of every sale. And the price is driven by the reality of the factors that go into the cash flow and the P&L for that unit. So what we buy the equipment at, what it takes to maintain it? What the interest rates are at the time and the maintenance going forward and the expected residual at the end? So we have not diminished our standards for the pricing of those new units.

Todd Fowler

Analyst

And would you say, that's you're consistent with... I mean is the market base pricing could be rational at this point or do you have a feeling that you are being disciplined with regards to price or maybe seeing some share go other places because of that?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

No, I don't believe we've been harmed by share and I think that if you're in this business and if you've been in it for a while regardless of your size, there are certain realities that you have to deal with as you price your business. And for the most part, that's largely rational because everybody has a certain cost of capital and they have certain maintenance cost and you have overhead and returns. This is not like selling a consumer product like a candy bar that if you sold two rather one, you are better off. Everyone, every unit has got to have a P&L and a cash flow that works. So, I think anybody who has been in this business for while and people were still in it have been in it for a while, understand that reality and therefore you sort of have an embedded reason to have, fairly consistent rational pricing.

Todd Fowler

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful Greg. And then one just last one, We are thinking about vehicle sales and gains on vehicle sales. Is the assumption really that these, the rental fleets at the right point and then really the churn on the vehicles is going to come and the continued sales on vehicles is going to come from leases that are coming up off of lease and naturally are going to be where the sales are going to be going forward and that's why we'll continue to see gain kind of at the same run rate in the next couple of quarters.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Tony?

Anthony Tegnelia

Analyst

Todd, we have the rental fleet where we want it right now. We are right at our targeted inventory level for the rental fleet, we don't anticipate dramatic reductions on that. So the units being accepted into our UBF operations have been over the next six or so months will predominantly come from the lease fleet as we've currently forecasted. However, as Robert had mentioned, we have been very successful with extension and the reason why there is many more units available for extension is because the amount have been down and there is more engine life left. So what we do is, we preserve capital really try to extend the vehicles, so that we don't get more inventory into the UTC operations which takes a little bit further pressure off price because we have very disciplined target levels for the inventory. So we don't let them swell and its work very well for us. The extension have kept the inventories low, and we have the rental fleet reductions behind us and we pull very good where we are overall with the balance sheet.

Todd Fowler

Analyst

Okay, that's all I have for now. Thank you.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Kevin Sterling, you may ask your question and please state your company name.

Kevin Sterling

Analyst

Thank you, BB&T Capital Markets. Good morning, gentlemen.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Good morning.

Kevin Sterling

Analyst

Greg, I have a quick question. How does the acquisition pipeline look? Any specific areas that you would target?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

I suppose if we could have our ideal desire, we'd like to continue to see more acquisitions spread throughout the country. We seem to have had more success than the East and the North East. So you can get more and more places, but generally anyone who may be interested, anyone who thinks it's the right time to leave their business for whatever reason, whether it's financial or age or succession planning, we're interested in anyone. And as long as there is an interest and we can some to mutual agreement, we have a wide geographic interest.

Kevin Sterling

Analyst

Okay, thank you. And I jumped on late, you may have already addressed this, I apologize if you did, but how should we think about the pension expense going forward do you still see as a headwind?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Well if the market ends on December 31st at the end of day as it is today, no, it wouldn't be. But you can only predict so far. So it all depends by those calculations that are done at year end as to what the returns are.

Kevin Sterling

Analyst

Got you. Thank you. That's all I had, thank you for your time today.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our final question today is from David Campbell. You may ask your question and please state your company name.

David Campbell

Analyst

Yes, Thompson, Davis & Company.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Hello David.

David Campbell

Analyst

Hi. How are you?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Good, thank you.

David Campbell

Analyst

Greg, there hasn't been much acquisition activity though following up on that last question.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Yes.

David Campbell

Analyst

The first quarter and yet, we've had obviously continued pressure on smaller companies. Do you have any reason for that or explanation for that?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Yes, I would say this David that companies that we are interested in would be healthy companies. They would have good market presence, they had good pricing, they have had good maintenance and if they are and if they running their businesses well just like ours chances are they are chilling off cash. So they are in no position of distress or desperation, and they may also be waiting for a healthier moment on which to perhaps put there companies up for sale, just like if you are in your house and you don't have to sell it, you'll wait for a better period. And I think some of these companies are in the same position. Since if they are well run and those are companies we want, they have got the same thing going for them that we have for us know, and that is strong free cash flow without a lot of other heavier requirements for capital. As we come out of this and things improve, it's possible that maybe those that may have been interested in the past may show a greater interest in the future.

David Campbell

Analyst

And obviously you didn't estimate revenues or profits in the fourth quarter. It doesn't sound like there is that much uncertainty relative to the third quarter. But you haven't yet made... were unwilling to do so. Is there any particular reason, just continuing the policies that you started earlier this year?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Yes, when we started the policy earlier this year, it was largely because the broadness of the range that would be required for us to fall within it was so wide that it became a little unmeaningful. And we will certainly consider the reinstatement of our past practices of providing guidance when we think we've reached a position that we can narrow the range enough that we can be confident with delivering that in the marketplace.

David Campbell

Analyst

Okay. And the increase in commercial revenues from the second to the third quarter, commercial rental revenues, is that largely seasonal?

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Yes.

David Campbell

Analyst

Okay. And I guess, thank you, I think that's pretty much got out. I appreciate the help.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

You're very welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Greg Swienton for any closing remarks.

Gregory Swienton

Analyst

Well, I think we've just about hit high noon and I thank everyone for their participation and questions and have a good safe day. Bye now.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.