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RB Global, Inc. (RBA)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Mon, Mar 3, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ritchie Bros. Q4 and 2013 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded on Monday, March 3, 2014. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Peter Blake, CEO; Rob McLeod, CFO; Bob Armstrong, Chief Strategic Development Officer; and Steve Simpson, Chief Sales Officer. Please go ahead.

Peter James Blake

Analyst

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us on our fiscal fourth quarter and 2013 year-end earnings conference call. Before we start, I’d like to make the Safe Harbor statement. The following discussion will include forward-looking statements as defined by SEC and Canadian rules and regulations. Comments that are not statements of fact, including projections of future earnings, revenue, gross auction proceeds and other items such as our potential addressable market, are considered forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties. The risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual financial and operating results to differ significantly from our forward-looking statements are detailed in our SEC and Canadian Securities filings available on the SEC and SEDAR websites, as well as rbauction.com. Our definition of gross auction proceeds may differ from those used by other participants in our industry. It is not a measure of financial performance, liquidity or revenue, and is not presented in our statement of operations. Finally, we will be discussing adjusted net earnings, which is a non-GAAP measure. We define adjusted net earnings as financial statement net earnings, excluding nonrecurring items such as the after-tax effects of sales on excess profits. A reconciliation is available in our MD&A for the quarter. Our quarterly and 2013 year end results were made available earlier this morning. We encourage you to review our earnings release, MD&A and financial statements which are available on rbauction.com, and will be available shortly on EDGAR and SEDAR later today. Now onto our quarterly results discussion. As you learned in December, our gross auction proceeds during the fourth quarter were a record $1.1 billion. This, combined with a strong revenue rate and the operating leverage inherent in our business, helped us to achieve record fourth quarter adjusted earnings of $30.3 million or a 36%…

Steven C. Simpson

Analyst

Thanks, Pete. Good morning, everyone. During 2013, we saw significant improvements in certain geographies, including Mexico, which had a nice lift in the second half of the year. Our experience in the U.S. was mixed, but certain regions of the U.S. had a strong year and continued to show strong growth. And we are encouraged by what we're seeing there, particularly in the Western United States. Our Canadian operations had another banner year, generating over CAD 1 billion in gross auction proceeds during 2013. This supported by continued steady growth across most provinces, including some of our most mature markets. In Europe, our sites in Italy and Spain performed well with a strong team and a challenging economic environment. Not surprisingly, volume per equipment in Australia during 2013 was impacted by the downturn in mining, and volume for equipment in Dubai was affected by the downturn in construction activity. Overall, as we learned in December, gross auction proceeds for 2013 were down 2% from 2012, due in part to the mix in age of equipment available for sale. We are seeing some improvement as younger machinery is coming to resale market, so this headwind is starting to lessen. More recently, in the first 2 months of 2014, we're seeing renewed demand from U.S. buyers. In fact, at our recent Orlando auction, we saw an increase in the proportion of sales going to the domestic buyers, which we view as good news, as it indicates stronger confidence by equipment owners in our largest market. Interestingly, a greater portion of the equipments sold at the auction left Florida for other states compared to last year. Another takeaway from the Orlando auction was that we saw a lot of support for trucks, where the depth of demand and the number of buyers was…

Robert S. Armstrong

Analyst

Thanks, Steve. Our priorities for 2013 were straightforward. We were focused on growing our core auction proceeds, adding new revenue streams to our business and enhancing the size and productivity of our sales team. While it was a challenging year to attain GAP growth that we hoped for, we did end the year with a record fourth quarter and some momentum to carry forward. We added 13 net new Territory Managers to our sales team in 2013, and they are ramping up the full productivity nicely. And as Steve mentioned, we have already added another 11 in the first 2 months of 2014. We have also been investing in new training and technology tools to improve the productivity of our entire sales team, including prospecting tools that have allowed our TMs to spend more time actually meeting with potential customers rather than looking for them. 2013 was an important year for us as we launched EquipmentOne and diversified our service offering to provide equipment sellers with the choice of sales solutions tailored to meet their specific needs and circumstances. It's still very early for our EquipmentOne business, as it's been commercially operational for less than 1 year, but we're pleased with how traffic to the site and sales yield is progressing, and we're pleased with the momentum it's carrying into 2014. Sales yield or the percentage of listings that end in the transaction was over 85% in 2013, which exceeded our expectations. In 2013, EquipmentOne had total gross transaction value or GTV of approximately $100 million, revenue of $13 million and a negative EBITDA contribution of approximately $3 million due mostly to the upfront and development costs associated with commercially launching and improving this web-based business. We continue to view EquipmentOne as being in the startup phase and we expect the business will contribute positively, but not materially to our results for the next couple of years. We continue to see significant growth potential for this business. The company's priorities for 2014, as supported by our board, are largely unchanged from last year. We are focusing on growing our GAAP and revenue in our core auction business and capitalizing on the operating leverage in the model. We're expanding and training our sales team to capture more market share and enhancing our sales force productivity, and we're continuing to develop and grow EquipmentOne, our online equipment marketplace. We have a well thought of strategy and the resources to complete it. Our priorities for 2014 are based on executing this strategy. I'll now pass the call to Rob McLeod for a review of our financial performance.

Robert A. McLeod

Analyst

Thanks, Bob, and good morning, everyone. As you saw on our press release, our net income for the fourth quarter was $33.7 million or $0.31 per diluted share. Included in our fourth quarter results are after-tax gains on the sale of -- the sale of land in Prince Rupert, BC, totaling $6.8 million, which was partially offset by $3.4 million of after-tax costs related to the CEO separation agreement. Our land that was sold in Northern British Columbia have never been used in our business and is acquired more than 25 years ago. We received an unsolicited offer, so we took the opportunity to sell it during the fourth quarter. We don't own any other land similar to this. The CEO separation agreement was developed by the board and is based on Pete's contribution as CEO over the past 10 years and his ongoing contribution to the firm throughout the CEO selection process and transition to the new CEO. On an adjusted basis, excluding these non-recurring items, net income was $30.3 million or $0.28 per diluted share in the quarter, an increase of 36% compared to adjusted net income for quarter 4 last year. This is a new earnings record for our fourth quarter. Revenue for quarter 4 was also a record at $131.2 million. This revenue growth of 12%, combined with an adjusted SG&A growth of only 1%, drove earnings growth of 36% in the quarter, demonstrating the operating leverage inherent in our model. Our revenue rate continued to be strong due to the performance of our at-risk business, which is 34% of our total GAAP in the quarter. Direct expenses were higher than usual, similar to quarter 3 at 1.55% of GAAP. The main factor in this uptick was that we held a larger number of offsite auctions…

Peter James Blake

Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Rob. Before we open the line for questions, I'd like to provide a brief update on the board's progress in selecting a new CEO to lead Ritchie Bros.' future growth. There's been a lot of interest in the role, and the board is very pleased with the quality of candidates that they are seeing. The process is progressing well. But given the sensitive nature of the selection process, no other updates will be provided until the new CEO is announced. The timing of that announcement depends on many variables. And because of this, there can be no certainty regarding when the appointment will be made. However, given the progress of the CEO search to date, we have every reason to believe we can land a great new leader for the company without any meaningful delays. The board and I are absolutely committed to ensuring a seamless leadership transition. And as a result, Bob Murdoch and I have both agreed to stay on the board until the CEO transition and transfer of responsibilities is complete. We believe this is a prudent measure to ensure a proper handover to the next CEO of the company. As a result, we will both stand for reelection on the board at our 2014 annual general meeting with the expectation that soon after the CEO transition is complete, we will both step down. At that time, as the company previously disclosed, it is expected that Beverley Briscoe, one of our longest serving board members, will become Chairman of the Board. We believe this is an exciting time for the company as we inject new perspectives and energy into the firm. We have a great platform with exceptional operating leverage and now we're focused on driving more revenue through the model. To this end, a new sales-focused leader with experience growing the top line will help to generate future growth. With that, I'd like to open the line for questions from analysts and institutional investors. [Operator Instructions] So Chris, can you please open the line for questions?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Yuri Lynk, Canaccord.

Yuri Lynk - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Analyst

I guess just I'll start with the guidance. At the midpoint you're looking at 5% or 6% GAP growth. I mean, I think your sales force is going to be up at least that, starting the year, plus you've hired some additional Territory Managers year-to-date, as you mentioned. Keeping in mind the productivity takes time to ramp up, I think just with the higher headcount and pricing flat to up, I thought we might get a little bit higher GAAP guidance. So, I mean, what are kind of the puts and takes around that -- around the guidance there?

Robert A. McLeod

Analyst

Yuri, it's Rob. As you know, our sales cycle is incredibly short. So it's trying to forecast out 12 months, let alone 6 months, is a bit of a challenge. And so we're doing our best to anticipate that growth in the sales team -- also frankly anticipate attrition and turnover in our existing sales team and the new Territory Managers that we add during 2014 build that into a model. And from that forecast GAP in whatever it is, 12 different currencies. And so it's for sure a challenge of forecasting GAP and we want to make sure that we're being prudent on that.

Yuri Lynk - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. That's fair. I guess my second one will just be on the Territory Managers. I mean, can you give some color on I guess one of the areas -- regions where you have pretty low penetration. U.S. Northeast? I mean how many of these new Territory Managers have gone to that region? What's the retention rate like in that region and just any update on how the business is trending in some of these lower penetration areas that we don't necessarily get press releases on?

Peter James Blake

Analyst

Yuri, it's Pete. Maybe I'll get Steve to add color after I speak. But we don't generally break down the ratio of Territory Managers per region. But I will tell you that, what we've gone through is, if you've got a dollar more to spend somewhere, you want to spend where you're going to make the most penetration in the most optimal marketplace. So we've done our analysis and looked at where our biggest and best opportunities lie. A lot of it for sure is in the U.S. and a lot of it is in big growth markets like in Alberta and places like that. So our allocation of Territory Managers is done -- and it's very artistic in some ways. And Steve takes his guys and they go into a big huddle and they decide where they're going to invest their next dollar for Territory Managers. I would say for sure that an area that is underpenetrated is the Northeast of the U.S. and we just got a brand new site that's coming -- it's grand opening coming up at the end of March in New Hampshire. And we've got a decent team of guys up there and they are expanding that as well. We're not going to comment on specific numbers in that area, but I will tell you that there was an awful lot of thought put into where those Territory Managers gets placed. I don't know, Steve, do you want to throw in a comment?

Steven C. Simpson

Analyst

Can you hear me, okay?

Yuri Lynk - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Analyst

Yes.

Steven C. Simpson

Analyst

Okay. I'd agree with, I mean -- the focus of the opportunity in the northeastern part of the U.S. for sure is significant. We recognize that. We've recently added a few more guys into the mix of that area. Also made some recent changes with our Senior Vice President there whose -- we're moving a guy down from Canada and our other guy's moving over to our strategic accounts. So we're focused on our U.S. business. We recognize the opportunities for us in the Northeast. And it will continue to be a focus for us for several years going forward.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Nick Coppola, Thompson Research Group.

Nicholas A. Coppola - Thompson Research Group, LLC

Analyst

Another question on guidance. I think I heard you say for ARR that you'd expect to be in the 11% to 12% range. Why do think ARR will go lower in '13 and why can't we stay in that north of 12% area?

Robert A. McLeod

Analyst

Nick, it's Rob again. That's -- as I mentioned in the comments, the -- there's certainly some of the quarterly results in our revenue rate that were unusual and extraordinary, particularly, obviously, quarter 3, where you had a revenue rate in excess of 13%, which, as we mentioned in quarter 3, was the result of a few phenomenal deals, where we really took advantage of our competitive advantages and bringing that to the table. Those types of deals don't come around every quarter, every year, necessarily. So we don't expect that -- those extraordinary quarterly results. And also, there's a -- perhaps an upper limit on the performance of that business -- of the at-risk business, because we will continue to be aggressive on those deals. Because part of our strategy on those deals is all around -- marketing around our competitive response in the competitive environment and also around building relationships with customers that may be new to the unreserved auction model. And so we want to have that flexibility to be aggressive on those deals to achieve our objectives that aren't necessarily the outsized revenue rate generation.

Nicholas A. Coppola - Thompson Research Group, LLC

Analyst

Okay. That makes sense. And then my second question. For the year, we saw lots were up about 5% year-over-year. GAP was down a tad. So you're skewing to smaller-sized, lower-value lots? And what does that do to your ARR? Just having smaller lot impact there based on your commission structure?

Robert A. McLeod

Analyst

Yes, it's a -- I think it's great question. They -- it is important to remember that 40% to 50% of the lots that we sell, sell for $2,500 or less, and that's the physical lot. So we sell a lot of small stuff, but the proportion of gross auction proceeds that those small lots contribute is like mid-single digits. It's very small. And so that's adding a bunch of small lots, probably isn't going to move the needle on your revenue rate or on your revenue dollars. It's your larger lots that have the biggest impact, for sure.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Bert Powell, BMO Capital Markets.

Bert Powell - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst

Pete, just wanted to come back to the comments you made around weather in the first quarter. And I'm wondering -- your comments about shifting GAP from Q1 into Q2, is that -- are there specific deals that you have -- or had that were delayed, because of weather? Or is this simply, when you look at the schedule, that's how it's going to fall out?

Peter James Blake

Analyst

No. There were some specific business that were -- that was delayed for -- you've got to remember in the road, when the weather turns, 2 things happen. One is people have more work to move snow -- or, actually, 3 things happen. They move snow. Two is the existing jobs they're on have to be delayed, so they can't get them finished, and their plans have to be pushed back. And the third is the road bans go on. And when you're trying to move heavy equipment, particularly, from jurisdictions North of Atlanta -- or even in Atlanta, for that matter, with road bans those kind of things get delayed. It happens. We're not going to sweat about it. We're not certainly going to sit here and say, it was the weather -- or blame the weather, because that's not the kind of business that we do. We're broader and transactional in our outlook, and where the equipment is going, how it's being sold and what value we're adding, and all those other fundamental things that we talk about as a long-term view of our business. So yes, there was some impact in some of the early stuff that we saw. And we see some things shifting into Q2 that would normally have occurred in Q1. It's just part of the business, it's not a big deal for us.

Bert Powell - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst

Okay. And then just turning to the G&A, down in admin and support but, I guess, up because of investment sales. Can you give us a sense just in terms of the G&A for the year after we back out what was -- what you got paid as part of the separation agreement? How should we be thinking about G&A next year? Can you continue to make cost savings that offset some of these additional TTMs that you're planning?

Robert A. McLeod

Analyst

Bert, it's Rob. Great question. And for sure, in 2014, our desire, our plan, our strategy is to grow our sales team 5% to 10%, as well as grow some of those sales support functions. In the last few years, we've added some particular positions that will take some administrative burden off of our salespeople and also help our salespeople refine their needs and their attack on particular opportunities. We will absolutely do that in 2014. So we will continue to invest in our sales team. Whether there are cost savings to be had at elsewhere in the organization, that isn't part of the strategy. That isn't the model that we have. The model, for sure, is to grow the business, grow the top line, which is growing GAP as well as, obviously, then, growing revenue and growing our expenses at a slower pace than that. And so if we're going to grow our -- we know we're going to make an investment and we're going to grow the costs associated with our sales team. The growth in our demand and operations teams will be even slower from that. And so -- but, I wouldn't say that our model is looking for cost cuts or cost savings.

Bert Powell - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst

Okay. But the G&A is the leverage point of the business model, so that should start -- we should start to see the leverage on that? That rate should be going slower?

Robert A. McLeod

Analyst

Exactly slower than our revenue, for sure. And with -- and one of the mantras that we like to use around here is "grow before we spend." Scott A. Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: Your next question comes from Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer. Scott A. Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: First question is with regard to the sales and lead tracking software rollout in the first half, could you give us an update on that, and how it's going to roll? How far along are you, if at all yet? And how are you going to do it? Geography-by-geography? Or how does that roll work?

Robert A. McLeod

Analyst

Scott, it's Bob. You called it the lead tracking software. I'm going to assume you mean the salesforce.com implementation, which is the new CRM package we're rolling out to our whole sales force. We'll be rolling that out region-by-region with in-person training through the end of [indiscernible]. We'll have the entire sales force and operational teams using the salesforce.com platform by June 30 this year. Scott A. Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: Okay. Also, could you guys comment with regard to your pursuit of government contracts, just what you're targeting? And what you think your outlook is for mix of business going forward. And anything, specifically, you're pursuing.

Peter James Blake

Analyst

Scott, it's Pete -- I'll speak to it, and I'd like Steve to maybe chime in as well. Yes, for sure, government contracts are interesting to ask. I think it was -- I'll share with you an anecdotal incident that's occurred in the last short while, and it really illustrates the value of our proposition that we put forward to owners of equipment. With EquipmentOne now in the saddle, we've got sort of a dual-pronged approach. And we're approaching some of the government agencies that would formerly [indiscernible] commission. And we wanted to control the price. And the process is a bit unique for the unreserved auction program, so we're not really sure that our RFP will line up with what you guys do. And today it's very different. We walk in, and we've got a dual solution. And we had a very favorable experience with the Texas Department of Transport recently, where we went in with a dual solution, and they looked at it and thought that was a great idea, sat with them, and we put a contract together with them. And funny enough, the majority of the assets that are coming to market. And I think it's like 6,000 of items to be sold by September. The majority of those will probably go to the auction. Yet we entered the contract negotiation with a view that we can meet their needs under the RFP because of EquipmentOne and what we offer, in terms of control of pricing process with EquipmentOne, and the auction solution providing liquidity and global value. So it's, really, pick your asset and pick your method of distribution, and we can supply what you need. It was a great win for us, a great win for EquipmentOne, a great win for us as a company. That was just an example of one government contract that we've recently landed that, that is part of our -- within our crosshairs going forward. And, Steve, do you want to throw some color to that?

Steven C. Simpson

Analyst

Yes, no, it's -- as Pete said, it's -- we've for years been out trying to get some traction with some of these government entities and always been a bit challenged because we did -- most often did not comply with the RFPs due to the unreserved part of life for our fees or our rates, so on and so forth. And to have now E1 in the mix is really opening up a lot of doors for us. And we are actively pursuing a bunch more of it. And, ideally, to get something with these folks and have a dual solution, give them -- either option is pretty attractive to them. As Pete said, the -- and for us, I mean, we're happy. As long as we get the business, we don't care which way it goes. But I think there's some real opportunity for us there, and we're on it, and we're pursuing more of it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Nate Brochmann, William Blair & Co. Nathan Brochmann - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: I wanted to talk a little bit just on the mix side. That kind of seemed to kind of take a little bit of a positive turn at the Orlando auction, even though, maybe, we didn't have as many cranes there or whatnot. But, overall, it sounded like we had a pretty decent mix such that has had been such a big negative for the last couple of years. Does it kind of feel like we're starting to bottom out a little bit in terms of that mix of kind of the older value lots and how smaller stuff?

Peter James Blake

Analyst

Yes, I mean, Pete here. For sure, we are seeing a definite shift in the age of equipments. We thought -- we did a bit of analysis in Orlando, sort of the 1- and 2- and 3-year-old equipment that we saw in February of 2013, and the same for 2014 over a number of sort of key categories like artics and dozers, excavators, loaders, telescopics and skid steers and things like that. We saw -- for 3-year-old equipment, as an example, we saw more than double the number of items that we would have seen prior year, for a 3-year-old equipment. So if you think about -- again, back to -- we've talked before, but back to the adage of -- that 2009, 2010, we're down years for OEM production. So in 2013, which is last -- a year ago, the 3-year-old equipment, really, was in very short supply. We didn't really sell that much of it. And this year, 3-year-old equipment, by definition, is 2011 model year. And guess what? We still more than double what we would have sold in Orlando last year. So it's a bit of a -- it's one data point, an interesting one, and we're seeing that happen in more just the one location. So it's starting to shift. We're seeing more transactions coming to market now. There's a little bit more iron in the channel, if you will. The CAT, I think, came up with recent stats that they published an 8-K on late February, showing retail sales of their dealer network was up substantially in the construction industry side, across the world and across the board. And their results are more adversely affected by the mining side. But encouraging stuff from the construction sector, especially in North America, where the dealer channel…

Peter James Blake

Analyst

Sure. Thanks, Nathan. Steve, do you want to speak to that?

Steven C. Simpson

Analyst

Yes, sure, yes. Competitive channels, still, a lot of competition out there. We're out there fighting for deals every day. And it's -- I don't think the competition has abated at all. I think the -- I think, there's a lot of people out there that are still scrambling to try to find the particular assets that are in the sweet spot of the late model, low-hour, whole-spec stuff, that it's still hard to get. And it doesn't matter if you're an auctioneer, or if you're a broker, or one of the OEM dealer, it's tight out there. The rental fleets are still at all-time high utilization. So those guys are really having some nice wins right now, as far as having stuff out in the market. And, equally, the sales team with the rental companies, they're -- they seem to be moving a fair bit of the products, although -- albeit we're still getting some of it, but with the utilization so high, they're not selling as much as they were. But as far as the competition goes, it'll continue to be out there, and it's out there every day. That was one of the reasons too when we talked about our auction revenue rate and putting it down to a more modest similar range to where we typically are. Because we are going after that business, and sometimes it's going to be a little bit skinny, and hence, the need to adjust the rate down a bit.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Jamie Sullivan, RBC Capital Markets.

Jamie Sullivan - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

So a question, I guess, just on the outlook. It typically seems like there's a fair amount of optimism exiting Orlando early in the year. You're guiding 1Q to flattish. It sounds like maybe down little bit. So just maybe you can just help us -- what are you assuming in the marketplace that gives you confidence that the volume and the larger categories is going to inflect in the next couple of quarters. And maybe why this year is different than prior years?

Peter James Blake

Analyst

Sure, Steve, do you want to take that?

Steven C. Simpson

Analyst

Yes, I think the -- as far as the end market and the assets, the availabilities of -- there -- the stuff is still tight out there. The demand is getting better. And the more we're getting out -- I think one of the parts of a marketplace that will continue to be tight is, as we talked earlier, is the construction stuff, the yellow iron that we typically call it. And that stuff is going to be -- just a lot of competition for that. And, of course, you want to have as much as you get in your auction sales because it's a big draw. But equally, we are continuing to diversify our sales force and make sure we're out there. And we're calling all the people in the ag business, and all the farmers, and all the truck and trailer guys, the energy companies. So we are continuing to diversify in that we're getting some placements because of it. But in a lot of cases, it's a lot of work to get some real momentum going in that marketplace. But it's -- we're just -- maybe we're being a little bit cautious, but it's probably a safe bet to be.

Jamie Sullivan - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just on the sales force front. It sounds like one of the key metrics going forward is going to be the stability and growth of the sales force. So maybe, in '13, you can tell us what was turnover in ' 13? What are sort of the targets as we go into '14 here?

Robert A. McLeod

Analyst

You want to take that, Pete?

Peter James Blake

Analyst

Yes, the sales force, yes, you're exactly, Jamie. The -- good word as well, the stability and the growth of the sales force and our attrition, in particular, our voluntary attrition, actually, was -- fell in 2013 compared to 2012 and latter half of '11, which was excellent and was -- we, believe, partially due to some of the programs that we put in place, particularly our -- some management training programs that we put in place for sales management. So that's -- having that fall in 2013 was positive. We want to continue that. For sure, there will continue to be attrition -- voluntary and involuntary attrition, within the sales team, as any sales team would have. And then on top of that, add some -- add the growth of 5% to 10% a year. And that's a -- you're exactly right that it is a very big focus, and it is an important metric, that growth of the sales team, because it is challenging to find new Territory Managers to sell unreserved auction services and to get them trained and on board and moving up that productivity line that takes anywhere, 12, 18, 24 months to get someone moved up that line. And we're continuing and probably reinforcing some of the programs we have in place to help with that productivity, one of them being our trainee territory manager program, which has yielded great results in the last few years, and we want to be focusing on that and embellishing that program, in particular, to help with that -- well, frankly, with the stability and the productivity of the sales team.

Jamie Sullivan - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, and -- but, I guess, in terms of numbers, you're not comfortable providing us what it was in '13?

Peter James Blake

Analyst

Yes. We don't -- we, generally, don't publish it, no.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Adam Fleck, Morningstar.

Adam Fleck - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Just a question falling back on the at-risk business. It's up as a percentage of your GAP for the first time in several quarters. And I appreciate the comments that you're using it, of course, as a strategic tool. But how should we think about that business, as GAP starts to grow again? Is that going to continue to fall? Or should that go in line with overall GAP do you think?

Robert A. McLeod

Analyst

The quantum, yes, will grow in terms of the growth in GAP. But the percentage of the volume, it will fluctuate quarter-to-quarter, for sure, just depending on the environment and what package of equipment are available in particular quarters. And we would expect it to be in the -- as we talked about last year, we expected the volume to decrease from 2012 through 2013, which it did, back to a little bit more historical levels. And so probably that volume is going to be 25% to 30% going forward and -- but it will fluctuate quarter-to-quarter for sure.

Adam Fleck - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay, that was great. That's really helpful. And then just wanted to follow up on the fourth quarter GAP. December looks like it was a record month. Of course, quarter 4 is a bit ahead of your original guidance. Is there any thought or concern that some of that may have been pulled forward due to the some of the tax law changes and engine emission standard changes? Or was it just the timing issue?

Robert A. McLeod

Analyst

Yes, I mean, well, obviously, incredibly difficult to understand the motivations of equipment owners, and when they make a decision to sell. And we're not necessarily privy to that decision-making. If there was any, I think it will be relatively minimal impact, particularly the -- moving from quarter 4 from quarter 1 in 2014.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Securities.

Cherilyn Radbourne - TD Securities Equity Research

Analyst

The first question I wanted to ask relates to your comments on the auction revenue rate for 2014. You did raise the top end slightly, and I think commented that you did see some opportunities for some upside, albeit not as good as in 2013. Could you just sort of give us some color there, please?

Robert A. McLeod

Analyst

Sure. Cherilyn, it's Rob. I think that top end change -- a couple of things going on. One was our disciplined approach to the at-risk business and how we're tackling it, and how we're really using our competitive advantages to bring to bear on those packages of equipment that will help some. The other thing is -- a smaller proportion, for sure, is really our fee income, and that fee income from our Financial Services business. And so that revenue ends up in -- as part of your revenue rate. And so that gives a little bit of a lift as well.

Cherilyn Radbourne - TD Securities Equity Research

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. I also wanted to just ask for a bit of perspective on EquipmentOne. Because the auction revenue rate on that business in the fourth quarter, and I think, this has been reported has actually been higher than what you achieve on your core business, which is a bit surprising, at least from my point of view, given that it's a lower touch business. So I just wonder if you think that, that's sustainable, long term?

Robert S. Armstrong

Analyst

Cherilyn, it's Bob. Yes, it's sustainable, for sure. The revenue model with EquipmentOne is very different than the auctions business, because it's a very different business. The bulk -- the majority of the revenue comes from a buyer's premium of 10%, but we also charge a seller's commission to most of our larger customers because of the amount of service we provide to them. So it depends on what they get. But the average -- the equivalent to the auction revenue rate for EquipmentOne last year was in the range of 13%. And there's no reason to think that'll change dramatically in 2014.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Neil Frohnapple, Longbow Research.

Neil Frohnapple - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Maybe a question for Bob, just a follow-up to EquipmentOne. What are you targeting for sales yield in 2014? I think you mentioned that it hit 85% this past year, which was above your expectations. Any color you can provide there would be helpful.

Robert S. Armstrong

Analyst

We've actually taken 85% and called that the target for this year. We want to be over 85%. We know we can do 85%, so our goal now is to improve on that. But I'll be honest with you, I'm quite happy at that level, that's a pretty high level. And if we can just maintain better or above it, that will be a good success.

Neil Frohnapple - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Great. And then you mentioned EquipmentOne was a $3 million EBITDA drag for '13. Just to clarify, you said, you expect it to be roughly neutral in 2014 and beyond?

Robert S. Armstrong

Analyst

I think what we tried to say is that we expect it to be marginally positive in 2014. Have not spoken about past that, but we have said we don't expect it to be material for the next couple of years. So I'll restate that as clearly as I can. 2014 we should have a positive but immaterial EBITDA and 2015 as well.

Neil Frohnapple - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Great, and then just one final one. If I rewind to 3 years ago, I think, you typically see a little bit of a G&A spike in Q1 from ConExpo, I think, in the tune of $1 million or so. Is that kind of what your expecting for the first quarter as well?

Peter James Blake

Analyst

Yes. ConExpo is occurring in, actually, this week -- in 2014. So yes, there'll be a little bit of a spike in there, because the equivalent trade shows is BAUMA and INTERMAT, and probably -- which occur in different quarters. I think they're usually quarter 2 events. And so, and just say -- whether the quantum that we spend on each one is equivalent or not, but yes, it's a timing effect.

Peter James Blake

Analyst

Okay, everyone, thanks. I appreciate you guys dialing in for the call. And we'll look forward to -- maybe we'll see some of you down at Con Expo. Most of us are heading down there right now. And so we'll look forward to seeing you down the road here. Thanks very much for participating. Thanks, Rich.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.