Earnings Labs

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Fri, Jan 30, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Erica, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to Royal Caribbean Cruises Limited 2014 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Jason Liberty, CFO for Royal Caribbean, please begin your conference.

Jason Liberty

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you, for joining us today for our fourth quarter earnings call. Joining me here in Miami are Richard Fain, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Adam Goldstein, President and Chief Operating Officer; Michael Bayley, President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International; and Laura Hodges, our Vice President of Investor Relations. During this call, we will be referring to a few slides, which have been posted on our Investor website, www.rclinvestor.com. Before we get started, I’d like to refer you to our notice about forward-looking statements, which is on our first slide. During this call, we will be making comments that are forward-looking. These statements do not guarantee future performance and do involve risks and uncertainties. Examples are described in our SEC filings and other disclosures. Also, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are adjusted as defined, and a reconciliation of these items can be found on our website. Richard will begin by providing a strategic overview of the business. I will follow the recap of our fourth quarter and full-year results. I will then provide an update on the current booking environment and will end with full-year and first quarter guidance for 2015. We will then open the call up for your questions. Richard?

Richard Fain

Analyst

Thanks, Jason, and thanks to all of you for joining us this morning. As always, I welcome this opportunity to provide a bit more color on our results for the year and on our perspective of the year ahead of us. Before I begin, I’d like to take a moment to acknowledge the recent promotions of two accomplished veterans and leaders; Michael Bayley, who has taken over as President and CEO of Royal Caribbean International; and Lisa Lutoff-Perlo, who has taken over as President and Chief Executive Officer of Celebrity Cruises. It’s been gratifying to watch their careers develop, over the several decades they’ve been with us. They really have differentiated themselves with their passion and their tenacity. One advantage of promoting such experienced talent is that there is no learning curve, they both hit the road running and they were already implementing changes that will drive both brands forward. I say congratulations to them both. It’s also a pleasure to be talking to you as we finished with one very good year, and as we start another exciting one. At Royal Caribbean, we start every discussion with how it will affect our Double-Double goals and I’d like to do that here too. I’m pleased to confirm that the results that we’re announcing for 2014 and the results that we are forecasting for 2015 are very much in line with our Double-Double program. We remain convinced the program has realistic goals and they were on the right track for success. You’ll recall that the three pillars of this program, which we’ve outlined on Slide 2, are growing revenue yields, maintaining cost consciousness and moderate capacity growth. On the revenue front, we continue to be very pleased with the performance of our newest vessel Quantum of the Seas and we’re thrilled…

Jason Liberty

Analyst

Thank you, Richard. I will begin by taking you through our results for the fourth quarter. Unless I state otherwise, all metrics are on a constant current basis. We have summarized our fourth quarter results on Slide 5. For the quarter, we generated adjusted net income of $0.32 per share. While there were several puts and takes from a business perspective, earnings would have been above the midpoint of our guidance if not for the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, net of fuel, which costs us $0.07 for the quarter. Since our October 23 earnings call, the dollar versus our basket of currency has strengthened over 6%, while fuel prices have dramatically declined. As we have discussed in the past, the change in currency impacts our P&L immediately, while there is typically a four to six-week lag for a change in fuel price. Also rapid changes in fuel prices within a period typically results in some ineffectiveness in our fuels cost. The net impact of these changes was $0.07 for the quarter. Net revenue yields were up 2.7% for the quarter, which was lower than guidance due to a slowdown in closing Caribbean demand and subsequent pricing reductions on non-holiday sailing. This was somewhat offset by double-digit yield improvement on Europe, Latin America and repositioning sailing. We were able to offset the balance and the revenue mix through better cost, including taxes, and better performance from our equity investments. Onboard revenue was up 4.9%, which marks the 12th quarter in a row of growth. Strong performance on New Year’s sailing and further demand for our beverage packages showed year-over-year improvement. Cost for better than guidance for the quarter with net cruise costs excluding fuel, up 2.3%. The improvement was mainly driven by a series of programs to reduce crew movement…

Operator

Operator

Certainly. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Felicia Hendrix with Barclays.

Felicia Hendrix

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Richard, this is a question for both, Richard and Jason. Richard, when you started with your prepared remarks and you were talking about Double-Double and your commitment there, and how the company is still on plan, I mean, on track. And Jason, I believe you touched on that as well. I’m just wondering, now there is another kind of wrinkle in the Double-Double, which is with FX, right. So I’m just wondering if you could help us understand what happens to that plan or to your outlook if FX continues to pressure earnings?

Richard Fain

Analyst

Thanks, Felicia, and good morning. Yes, obviously FX has always been a factor, as has fuel. As we’ve said the two have tender to offset each other, although it’s not perfect. But it’s not a new factor. We knew it was factor when we entered into the Double-Double. It has been a little more dramatic, particularly when you look at the quarter, but if you look over the time, in fact we’ve been raising our projections, and I will tell you that internally we are in a better position vis-à-vis the Double-Double today than I guess with six months ago when we first announced it. So nothing - and what has happened over the last six months or the last three months has been anything other than positive. And I think the two elements that really drive it are the - or will drive it are the yields. And the yields are doing quite nicely and we’re guiding this year 2.5% to 4.5%, which is a pretty good increase on a constant currency basis. And the first quarter is difficult, but we always knew the first quarter would be difficult. Bookings, once you get beyond the first quarter are really very powerful. And so I am - I think my tone - certainly my tone and when I drafting my comments was that we’re in a very good position and I am quite comfortable, particularly as we’re looking forward. The fourth quarter always looks a little awkward, because it’s always the most sensitive quarter to small changes. And this first quarter we know it would really be difficult. The other thing that we look at, and one of the things, that’s very important to us is the Wave period. So we’ve essentially had the first month of Wave. And that is important most because of the absolute amount of bookings that we take during this Wave period and during that first month. But it’s also important because of the tone and sense of the year. And I would have been heck of a lot more concerned if that tone had been negative. Instead the tone is very positive. It’s a very strong typical Wave period, which gives us encouragement that our yields are going to be there. And yes, again we could have another change in foreign exchange. This year over last year, we have 9% weaker other outside currencies, 9% stronger dollar, which is extraordinary. It’s probably one of the biggest changes we see in a long time and we are still reporting 40% increase in profitability. So we’ve always noted it will be an issue. It will continue to result in dips up and down, but it doesn’t make me any less comfortable with the Double-Double. I think I better ask Jason to comment to see his view on it.

Jason Liberty

Analyst

Well, I would concur on with that. And so, as Richard commented, that relationship between currency and fuel has really held up over time. And I think when we put a Double-Double program together, we also realize that we need to also be able to play when it rains, and there is always going to be puts and takes in a business, but by keeping that focus so that the business is driving towards that.

Felicia Hendrix

Analyst

Okay, that’s really helpful. And then, Jason just a quick question. You guys said earlier that you are 50% hedged. I was just wondering, would strategically where fuel prices are now - I know historically that’s kind of been where you are, but given where fuel prices are now, why wouldn't you hedge more?

Jason Liberty

Analyst

Yes. So it’s for a few reasons, one of which is this relation or this inverse relationship has been really strong over time. And also the forward curves, try to lock in kind of further out are quite steep, because they’re in contango and that’s some of the reasons in the considerations that why not hedge out more further out.

Felicia Hendrix

Analyst

Okay, clear and helpful. Thank you.

Jason Liberty

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

Steve Wieczynski

Analyst · Stifel.

: Hi, good morning guys. So Jason, you did a pretty good job of breaking down some of the markets, specifically the Caribbean and Europe, but when you look at your yield increase this year of, what you’re saying, 2.5% to 4.5%, can you maybe go into a little more detail of maybe some of the other markets in terms of what you guys are expecting from an yield perspective? And then also, maybe how you guys are thinking about onboard as well?

Jason Liberty

Analyst · Stifel.

Sure. Thanks Steve. Maybe just to kind of start off on the onboard side, obviously the entry of Quantum and Anthem, and we’re having a full-year of Quantum and Anthem are really good new stories for the onboard side, as well as Quantum going into Asia, which as we’ve talked about in the past indexed a little bit higher than the average for the onboard side. Also, the investments we’ve made on the technology standpoint as we’ve commented in the past with our - the increase in the bandwidth whether it’s with O3b or Harris CapRock, has really also further engaged the consumer to spend for internet package. So to kind of give you maybe some more color on some other products. We are expecting Alaska to be up nicely. It’s in a good book position, and the pricing is doing quite well. Also I would say on the Australia side, obviously there is a lot more capacity that’s going into Australia which were kind of in my comments around the Asia Pacific. And so there will be some stress on yields. So we do expect it to be positive.

Richard Fain

Analyst · Stifel.

Steve, one other thing I might add. You asked about onboard revenue, and we’ve talked before about the fact that we’re doing more integration between onboard revenue and ticket revenue. As we evolve the sophistication of our revenue management systems, one of the things you’ve seen is that we are doing more and more with value-added versus discounts. We really feel that the consumer prefers that. It works up better for the travel agents. And by combining that - and I think a perfect example to put in tangible terms would be Celebrity’s program last year of 123go! program, very successful program. So instead of offering a discount, we say, well, we will bundle in drinks package or an onboard credit or prepaid gratuities or whatever it was that you wanted to choose. And I think those kinds of value-added packages are proving from the market point of view to be very popular with the consumer. Again as I say it’s popular to travel agent, because it effectively increases their commission because it bundles more into what is commissionable. And it means that instead of touting ourselves on price, we tout ourselves on what we are offering. And we are - we think that the market is ready for, and we are very much focused on trying to upgrade ourselves, the image and do less price fighting, and more, this is why you’re better on this kind of cruise. So I do think that one of the implications of that mathematically is to the extent that there is more bundling that actually could have a little bit reduction in onboard revenue. But the other thing is we have also gotten so much better at what we’re offering, some of the things Jason talked about. So we are looking for a positive momentum in both sides.

Michael Bayley

Analyst · Stifel.

Steve, this is Michael. We’ve also invested quite significantly over the past few years on upgrading and revitalization the addition of specialty restaurants and changing out much of our retail offering and changing on bar offering etcetera, etcetera. So I think we’re seeing a nice uplift from the investments that we’ve made over the past few years in terms of the actual onboard revenue options that we have onboard of ships.

Steve Wieczynski

Analyst · Stifel.

Okay, got you. And then, second question is a bigger picture question, more so for Adam. But Adam, I know when you became COO a couple months ago, back in April, one of the areas that you were focused on were these shared services between the brands, and how could you improve those. So could you maybe give us an update on your progress to-date there, and then maybe what kind of opportunities or synergies you’re seeing as you kind of move forward? I guess, we heard a little bit of that this morning with the Pullmantur announcement. Thanks.

Adam Goldstein

Analyst · Stifel.

Sure, thank you. Well, one of the key elements of course is to work with the brands and their organizations to ensure that we can deliver against our cost commitments over time as we pursue Double-Double goals. But another crucial element is to enable our global aspirations to activate the global footprint through superior approaches to human resources, to information technology, to the supply chain. And these areas are all progressing with a great determination. I’m glad enough that China has taken our shared services to a new and different level from anything that we’ve seen before, while we’ve been expanding our global footprint for many, many years, that was almost entirely on a sales and marketing aspect, was now we’ve got operations involved and the supply chain is in China and everywhere around the world. So the principal payoff of the shared services environment you will see in the yield projections and the yield deliverables and in the cost projections or in the cost deliverables. And there is no question that we have momentum in these areas and that the shared services groups are being challenged and given opportunities in ways that they haven't seen before and we’re trying to be very concrete in terms of the service level agreements and the KPIs that the shared services owe to the respective brand.

Steve Wieczynski

Analyst · Stifel.

Okay, great. Thanks for the color guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Badishkanian with Citigroup.

Greg Badishkanian

Analyst · Citigroup.

Great, thanks. I just wanted to talk a little bit, or ask some questions on - that you mentioned the last few weeks in January that Wave has been solid. So, I mean that’s really encouraging, but I just wanted to get a little bit more color. Is that primarily the booking volumes, pricing. Also do any regions stand out? And I’m assuming that was an acceleration from the trend that you saw towards the end of the 2014. Correct?

Michael Bayley

Analyst · Citigroup.

Hi Greg, this is Michael. I think we’ve been pleased with what we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks. The Wave has been quite strong for us. We’re seeing certainly strength in Q2, Q3, Q4. We’re also seeing very good volume coming into Q1. I think we mentioned earlier with the capacity increases in the Caribbean in Q1. There was quite a promotional environment, but the promotions and the pricing stimulation that we put into the market seems to be generating very good volumes. So I think that’s a positive sign. When you look at the different markets performance globally, certainly the North American market seems to be in good shape for us. Europe, we saw a slight little blip after the events in Paris, a couple of weeks ago, which for a few days we saw things slow down, and then about four or five days later, everything started to come back quite nicely. So our European business seems to be in good shape. And that’s also I think as we’ve mentioned previously in Asia Pacific, Australia and China, we’re feeling good about what we’re seeing, particularly out of the Chinese market with the addition of Continental China. So overall, the Wave has been good.

Greg Badishkanian

Analyst · Citigroup.

And you would say that is that a good indicator for the next few months or historically. How would you - how should we think about that as kind of a future indicator for 2015?

Michael Bayley

Analyst · Citigroup.

Well, I think as Richard had mentioned, when we - and both Richard and Jason. When we came into ’15, we were in a particularly strong good booked position. I think were in the best position that we’ve ever been in. So really we’re writing off a good book position, and that bodes well for really getting into an even stronger book position by quarter for each quarter across all of our markets. And that of course means that we’re probably not going to be subject to the kind of discounting that we’ve seen previously, because we’ll be in a much stronger state for our company.

Greg Badishkanian

Analyst · Citigroup.

And just finally, Wave for Europe. Does that start sort of mid-February? When do you start seeing the acceleration in bookings for that market?

Michael Bayley

Analyst · Citigroup.

Well, out of the U.K. market, that’s pretty much similar to the U.S. market in terms of the Wave. And out of the Northern European markets, it’s very similar to the American Wave. We see come a little later out of the seven European markets, and we typically see things strengthen as we get into the beginning of the second quarter, but what we’re seeing is good. And particularly out of the U.K. market, it’s been very good.

Richard Fain

Analyst · Citigroup.

And Greg, since you asked about Europe, and to add to Michael’s comments, we had an extraordinary 2014 in Europe. A little bit of frankly of a corollary to the malaise in the Caribbean and for many of the same reasons there was so much capacity that moved from the Caribbean to Europe, It was an extraordinary year. So we were a little bit euphoric about that. This year, it’s a much more balanced view, but if we haven't had 2014, we would be singing the praises of Europe. It’s strong. It’s doing well. It’s not euphoric like last year was, but it is strong and it’s doing well for us. I think that’s part of what’s giving us a good feeling for 2015.

Greg Badishkanian

Analyst · Citigroup.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Conder with Wells Fargo Securities.

Tim Conder

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Thank you. A couple of questions here, staying on the European question thing first. Can you just give us a framework of how many of your European itineraries, what percent was filled with European-sourced guests versus North Americans in ’14? And then do you see that changing much for 2015 at this point? And then on the currency side, Jason, just maybe refresh us, you gave us the four major currencies of where your exposure is. How much is your net exposure in each of those currencies? And then have you hedged anything either related to your operational exposure or in particular the euro, where you get paid from TUI? And then I have one additional question after that.

Jason Liberty

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Okay, Tim. Thank you. So, just to start off in terms of the mix on Europe. Typically about two-thirds of our guests on European cruises come from Europe and a third from the rest of the world, mainly North America. That tends to vary a little bit based off of demand patterns, because the European product is probably the most leveraged on our global sourcing model, because it is in such demand in so many different markets. So that percentage amount can change here and there. As it relates to currency, we do provide kind of in order, how those currencies impact us. And it does tend to change by quarter. We’re actually going to publish for you guys bi-quarter the order of the impacts of those currencies, but we will not be getting into what the net amount would be. And on a hedging perspective, like we’ve said with fuel, which was pointed out on the slide that natural relationship in our view comes to a hold and so we don’t really do any operational hedging. We do, do hedging currency-wise for our new building specifically.

Tim Conder

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

And then just to the other piece of that, your currency guidance factors in what you receive from TUI on the equity income link?

Jason Liberty

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Yes, it’s part of our net exposures.

Tim Conder

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Okay. And then, my other question was as it relates to maybe Michael and the changes and responsibilities there, clearly built on the successes at Celebrity. And now coming to Royal and knowing that the prior Royal bosses, that remains is now his boss too. So what do you see going forward there, Michael, as far as opportunities in the Royal brand?

Michael Bayley

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Well, I have to say that my former - the former CEO, acting CEO of Royal did a really good job.

Adam Goldstein

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Thank you, Michael. You’re absolutely correct [ph].

Michael Bayley

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

And I recommend him for getting everything so well prepared for me. So that’s kind of come back to Royal, but I’d come from Royal, so I’m very familiar with the brand. I feel quite fortunate. It’s genuinely an outstanding brand. We have really high brand awareness. We have a strong global infrastructure. We have winning teams in China, internationally and domestically. We truly have innovative hardware. We’ve got Quantum class and Oasis class coming online in the next few years. We have very passionate loyal guests who genuinely love the brand. We have huge bench strength with our ship board and shore side employees. And probably most importantly, we have very loyal and long-term travel partners who sort of stayed with us through the course of all of these years and who we have a wonderful relationship with. So I’m very fortunate. I am spending obviously a lot of time developing the forward strategy for the brand. And obviously my key focus is leveraging the power of this brand to drive performance forward, and that’s really my focus. That’s where I am. And it’s a great joy to be back in Royal and to be leading the Royal brand team.

Tim Conder

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Okay, great. Thank you all.

Michael Bayley

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Kent with Goldman Sachs.

Steven Kent

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Hi, good morning. A couple questions for you. Can you just talk a little bit more broadly about your strategy on China versus principal [ph], especially in the light of a couple of announcements they’ve made, even just some this week. And what your initiatives are to target that consumer? And then the second thing, and this is I know, a very near-term issue, but given what seems to be the strengthening of the US consumer, the decline in close-in bookings that noted in the fourth quarter seemed counterintuitive. And I just wanted to understand how that plays out. It would seem to me like as the U.S. consumer strengthens, they would be willing to book further in advance and also pay up as they get closer into the bookings. So I'm trying to understand that balance, but also want to understand the longer term issue, which could be a big opportunity for you in China and how you are looking at it versus your competitors?

Richard Fain

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I’ll start, but I think Adam, Michael may want to chime in on China, Jason on the strengthening the U.S. Although I would emphasize, we will have ups and downs in any given quarter. And I think that’s a point we really - I think I almost emphasize I have seen on every call that it’s remarkable to me that we are as - we have been as accurate as we have been. And I think we may have spoiled ourselves by always seeming to meet those, but the degree of accuracy here can't be that great. I mean this year, our initial forecast for the year was a midpoint of 2.5% constant currency yield improvement. We ended the year with 2.4%. It’s just hard for me to imagine us being able to maintain that kind of accuracy on an ongoing basis, but the others comment more specifically on the strengthening the U.S. because I think you have put your finger on something that’s very important. Our strategy for China is really very clear. We want to be synonymous with cruising in China. We want to have the strongest product that we know how to do. The Chinese consumer are clearly loving the Royal Caribbean product there. And in China, brand is very important. So we are investing heavily, both in terms of management and in terms of hardware, and ensuring that we are continually strengthening the perception of our brand, and educating the Chinese consumer, because it’s still such an embryonic industry there, most consumers don’t know about it, and they don’t have the same kind of infrastructure with travel agents and others that we have in the United States. So we’re working hard to expand that. We’ve been growing at an extraordinary rate. We grew last year at…

Adam Goldstein

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

If you’re just talking about the kind of the counterintuitiveness with the U.S, consumer getting stronger relative to what happened in Q4 and also our thoughts on Q1. Yes, I think going into our last call, we were seeing that the strength in the U.S. consumer on ticket as well as on the onboard side. The onboard piece continued on while the onboard performance was quite good. But the reality is that we don’t operate in the vacuum. And so I think some of the competitive forces and the level of supply that was out there caused the environment to be more promotional than we had thought, outside of the holiday sailings which actually you saw quite a bit of strengths from the U.S.

Michael Bayley

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Steve, it’s Michael. Just to add to that, I think one of the things that suddenly we saw last year, for example some of Europe, we really saw a strong demand out of the U.S. market, at fairly high price points. So I think that speaks about the growing affluence in the American market that we’re seeing more and more Americans wanting to travel, for example, further, and willing to pay a higher price to do that. And I think that’s quite reflective of how we see part of the emerging opportunity in the U.S. market with regards to the growth of affluence in the U.S. And then just a quick comment on China. China is really one of those ultimate opportunities, those infinite possibility because the entire market really is a new to cruise market and therefore our brand as we’ve been in the Chinese market for several years and the recipient each year of the top cruise line in China, I think we’re really well positioned in terms of the opportunity that we see. Just to confirm Richard’s perspective, that competition is always good in the market anyway. So I think we welcome the competition.

Steven Kent

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, due to the time constraints, please - for the rest of the question please remain for one question per person. Your next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

Robin Farley

Analyst · UBS.

Great, thanks. I know you’ve talked about how the percent of Europeans and North Americans on a European cruise can change from year to year, but do you anticipate just there are concerns out there about the European economy, that the demand from Europe, and it sounds like its still early for kind of southern European Wave. But are you kind of anticipating maybe you’ll have to shift some more sourcing, shift kind of more of your inventory to be sold to North American passengers versus last year? And then, even though I know we just keep it to one, just my other one is really quick, which is just, how much did the holiday shift in the calendar add to Q4 yields. You mentioned that what it took out of Q1. I just want to think about what it added to Q4? Thanks.

Jason Liberty

Analyst · UBS.

Hi Robin, it’s Jason. On the European side, I think that watching what’s happening in that market, there is always going to be puts and takes. But we really did enter the year in a very strong book position for our European sailings, and especially with that driven from North America and the U.K. So there might be some shift in the sourcing, but current booking patterns post year-end have been actually quite good recently on the European sailings. And again having that strong book position will limit the need for us to modify sourcing too much as well as to have to take any practical pricing actions. As it relates to the - as we had indicated on the last call, the impact on yields as it relates to pro-ration is really immaterial the basic point or two, but we can - after the call we can get to that in more detail.

Richard Fain

Analyst · UBS.

But Robin, I think one of the questions is the shifting which has no impact on the year as a whole, but when you do look into first quarter, it has a slightly unfortunate thing because last year’s first quarter had all holiday sailings, and last year, that is the holiday sailings of 2013 were terrific. And so almost all the deterioration this year is because ’13 had holiday sailings, ’14 didn’t. Assuming that ’15 holiday sailings continue to be positive, we simply make it up to the fourth quarter. And frankly that’s probably the right thing that we have done anyhow. So yes, when you look again at the quarter, most of the deterioration in the first quarter is simply because of that.

Robin Farley

Analyst · UBS.

I guess that’s what I - then I don't know if I understood Jason's comment, because it looked like in the release you were saying that the holiday shift was really most of that sort of 1.5 to 2 points decline in Q1 maybe would have been closer to flat…

Richard Fain

Analyst · UBS.

That’s what we said. You’re exactly right, Robin. That’s right.

Robin Farley

Analyst · UBS.

So if it added 150 to 200 - or I'm sorry, if it took 150 to 200 basis points out of Q1, how would it only have added one or two to Q4, is that because of the year-over-year?

Richard Fain

Analyst · UBS.

No. I think what he was saying was the overall year the impact was immaterial. It just shifted some of the benefit. So instead of having better first quarter, we have a better fourth quarter. But the year as a whole, it’s negligible.

Robin Farley

Analyst · UBS.

Right, great. And I totally understood that it’s not a meaningful thing. I'm just kind of looking at Q4 results reported today and just wondering what in there was helped by the holiday shift? But maybe I can follow-up after.

Jason Liberty

Analyst · UBS.

We can get back to you after Robin. And also I mean it always contemplated in our guidance.

Robin Farley

Analyst · UBS.

Yes, understood. And that was a great color on the capacity, really probably not having to shift where you’re targeting, that was helpful. Thank you.

Jason Liberty

Analyst · UBS.

Thanks Robin.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Harry Curtis with Nomura.

Harry Curtis

Analyst · Nomura.

Hi. Just to get your perspective on, if there has been incremental weakness in the demand from European customers, reflected in your bookings into the U.S. in the second, third and fourth quarters given the strength of the dollar?

Jason Liberty

Analyst · Nomura.

Hi Harry, we haven't seen - as Michael mentioned, there was a little bit of a dip around the tragedy in Paris. But outside of that, the demand patterns from European consumers for the Caribbean or Alaska so forth has remained pretty in line. And also everything we do, we do in local currency. So it’s not necessarily more except at a point where we start raising pricing because of change in the demand environment.

Richard Fain

Analyst · Nomura.

And obviously, there has been the euro, the sterling a lot weaker. And so if you’re British or you’re a Continental then you want to buy a vacation in United States, that’s more expensive. So there is obviously some impact. What we’ve tried to do Harry, is incorporate all that into our guidance, so that we’ve looked at it based on where we are today. And that’s where the guidance is coming from. And yet, we’ve been able as you’ve seen, if we compare where we are overall, ignoring the fuel effects specific impacts, we’re better off today than we were three months ago. And so we think that the general trend has been more positive even though obviously if you look at any particular area there will be puts and takes.

Jason Liberty

Analyst · Nomura.

Operator, we have time for one more question.

Operator

Operator

Certainly. Your last question comes from the line of Jamie Rollo with Morgan and Stanley.

Jamie Rollo

Analyst

Yes. Thanks for that. Just on the guidance mid-single-digit yield growth for quarters two through four. I think I heard you say the Caribbean will be low-single-digits for that period, Europe mid-single-digits and Asia-Pac low-to-mid-single-digits, which looks overall to be sort of a bit below the sort of 5% figure you need to hit the mid-point of the guidance. And then just the other quick one was on the other financial income from the joint-venture. If I take out the $33.5 million from Spanish tax reform, is it fair to say that the remaining $21 million is pretty much all from the joint-venture with TUI? Thank you.

Jason Liberty

Analyst

Hi Jamie. One of the other things that happens like in Q2 and Q3. So our commentary for example about the Caribbean being lower single-digit Q2 and beyond, that also factored some structural changes. So for example Allures is coming out of the Caribbean and going into high-yield in Europe. So a lot of that just a mix change between low yielding products going to higher yielding products through the course of the year. And that’s kind of how you average out for the 5%. If you do take out the tax component, then the majority of that is our joint-venture with TUI Cruises [ph].

Jamie Rollo

Analyst

Okay, great.

Jason Liberty

Analyst

Well, thank you for your assistance, Erica. And we will thank all of you for your participation and interest in the company. Laura will be available for any follow-ups you might have, and I wish you all a very good day.