Vikas Mehta
Analyst · Cantor Fitzgerald
Thank you, Sebastian, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered another excellent quarter of profitable growth and strong free cash flow with revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin together exceeding the Rule of 45, reflecting solid execution and a rigorous attention to cost discipline. Third quarter revenue was $510 million, $4 million above the midpoint of our guidance and up 22% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $121 million, $28 million above the midpoint of our guidance at a 24% margin, our highest ever. Let me share an overview of our third quarter results and then provide our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026 and our updated guidance for the full year. As we have done in the past, we will also provide an early perspective on 2027. Top line growth accelerated sequentially this quarter, driven by continued strength in core send and the scaling of our growth businesses. Our performance relative to our guidance reflects the continued benefits of regulatory changes in the United States, supporting a shift towards digital remittances and momentum at Remitly business. Unpacking revenue drivers for Q3, send volume grew 25% to $24.4 billion. Send volume per active customer reached a record of more than $2,350, up 7% year-over-year, driven by higher average transaction sizes, which reflects a higher mix of business and large transfers and an increase in transactions per active customer. Quarterly active customers grew 17% year-over-year to 10.3 million. Quarterly active customer growth remained strong, supported by share gains across geos, especially in the U.S. to Latin America corridors. Our take rate this quarter was 2.09%. Now let me dive deeper into our revenue performance from a geographic and new product perspective. From a send perspective, U.S. revenue grew 25%, reflecting continued share gains in key geographies. Rest of the World revenue grew 23% year-over-year, accelerating from prior quarter's pace. We continue to see robust activity in the UAE, where revenue grew over 150% year-over-year and are excited about the opportunities afforded by our expanded licenses there. On the received side, revenue from transactions to regions outside of India, the Philippines and Mexico once again grew faster than overall revenue growth and comprised over half of our revenue mix. Now moving on to our newer businesses. We continue to gain traction and scale, and our growth accelerators are on a track to comprise around 5% of total revenue in 2026 and exceed 10% of total revenue by 2028. I'll start by highlighting the strong performance of Remitly business this quarter, which once again saw an acceleration in volume growth. We ended the quarter with more than 30,000 Remitly business users, a little over a year in Remitly businesses gaining momentum through continuous improvement of the user experience and a growing diversified customer base. Over the last 2 quarters, time to onboard has improved 38%, and we launched multiple product enhancements, including Send by Link, Bulk Send and QuickBooks Online integration. Next, let me share an update on large transfers, who we previously referred to as high-value centers. Large transfer volumes grew 25% year-over-year. As we shared last quarter, large transfer volumes were affected by Reserve Bank of India's foreign currency mobilization measures, which began in Q2 and concluded in August. Large transfer volumes outside of India grew 80% year-over-year in Q3, an acceleration from Q2's pace. We are seeing particularly strong growth to the UAE, where we completed multiple 100,000-plus transfers this quarter. Shifting to receivers. Our suite of receiver products has the ability to unlock a direct relationship with tens of millions of recipients. Products like Send with Text and Paytech let us begin building those relationships and the global receiver card, which is now available in 4 countries, provides a new means of monetizing payment flows after a transaction is sent. Finally, Remitly Global Card, which allows card members to send, spend, save and get paid from the same account. The Remitly Global Card has been available for a little over 1 quarter. And this week, we are expanding general availability to customers across the U.S. Global Card customers can also send and request money from one another anywhere in the country. This is a significant milestone for Remitly as we move beyond international transfers to serving our customers' everyday financial needs. We remain excited about the traction we see with our newer businesses and the opportunities for these offerings ahead. Moving on to our expenses. We delivered leverage across every single expense category this quarter. These results are the product of a deliberate focus on cost discipline and the widespread use of AI internally, which has driven significant improvements in operating efficiency, particularly in fraud detection, engineering and our support functions. Turning to our focus of driving profitable growth on Slide 12. Transaction margin dollars grew 27% to $347 million, again outpacing revenue growth with transaction margins reaching 68%, up 312 basis points year-over-year. The expansion in transaction margins reflects strong customer activity, lower transaction losses, improved partner economics and the scale benefits of our network. Transaction expenses this quarter were $162 million and as a percentage of revenue was 32%. Excluding provision for transaction losses, other transaction expenses were $141 million, improving 134 basis points year-over-year as a percentage of revenue. This improvement reflects higher efficiencies across our network as well as a continued shift in mix towards digital receive volumes. Provision for transaction losses was $21.3 million or 8.7 basis points as a percentage of spend volume. We continue to make investments in our data ecosystem and AI/ML models, which are yielding benefits. As our network grows, so does our data graph, giving us more intelligence to improve our fraud prevention. With that, let me walk you through the specific non-GAAP expense categories. Marketing investments remain disciplined and growth focused. Marketing grew 14.6% year-over-year and was 19.7% as a percentage of revenue, a 119 basis point reduction from prior year levels. Marketing spend per active customer was $9.69, down 1.9% year-over-year, reflecting contribution from unpaid and organic channels. This month, we are launching a new global partnership with Indian cricketer, Jasprit Bumrah, widely regarded as one of the greatest bowlers of all-time ahead of Diwali, one of India's largest holidays. Our LTV to CAC ratio was above 6x, while our payback period remained under 12 months. Lifetime value of new cohorts continued to expand, growing 9% year-over-year. Customer support and operations expense was $27.3 million and as a percentage of revenue was 5.3%, improving 83 basis points year-over-year and continuing a multiyear trend of steady operating leverage. Our virtual agent Remy reduced average handling times by 22% since launch. Technology and development expense was $56.3 million and as a percentage of revenue was 11%, improving 216 basis points year-over-year. AI-related benefits allow us to ship more and faster with the same headcount. Even as AI usage increases, we were able to reduce all token costs 55% in Q3 by actively managing usage across models. G&A expense was $42.8 million, flat year-over-year. We delivered significant leverage again this quarter, 180 basis points as a percentage of revenue to 8.4% of revenue, reflecting a continued rigorous focus on operating discipline and the ongoing rationalization of our geographic footprint. Strong revenue growth, combined with operating leverage and cost discipline led to a record level of adjusted EBITDA of $121 million. Adjusted EBITDA outperformance was driven by higher-than-expected revenue, lower-than-expected transaction losses and higher-than-expected AI-related operating efficiencies. Net income was $67.6 million, up sevenfold year-over-year, resulting in a 13% net income margin. With several consecutive quarters of solid profitability, we will reference diluted EPS as a key performance metric going forward. Diluted EPS is an increasingly relevant lens through which we measure the business. Diluted EPS was $0.30 in Q3, up over 640% year-over-year. Our North Star remains growth in free cash flow while managing dilution and Q3 delivered on both. Free cash flow grew to $88 million, reflecting strong operating leverage, partially offset by the timing of working capital. Outstanding shares were 214 million, up 2% year-over-year, reflecting our disciplined approach to dilution management and share repurchase activity. Stock-based compensation was lower year-over-year for the third consecutive quarter. It declined 1% and at 7.8% of revenue was 176 basis points lower as a percentage of revenue than the third quarter of 2025 due in part to lower headcount. For all of 2026, we expect stock-based compensation to decrease modestly in absolute terms year-over-year. In Q3, we opportunistically bought back $14.4 million worth of stock or 612,000 shares. Year-to-date, we have repurchased 4.5 million shares. We continue to be disciplined in how we deploy capital towards buybacks. Let me now share an update on capital allocation. We recently took 2 important measures to improve working capital management and flexibility in how we deploy free cash flow. First, we upsized our revolver to $1 billion from $550 million. We prefund certain customer transactions to ensure funds are available to recipients in a timely manner, which means most of our cash sits overseas. A larger revolver provides us incremental flexibility to use our cash for other corporate needs. Second, we increased our share buyback authorization from $200 million to $500 million, reflecting both our confidence in the long-term trajectory of the business and our view that repurchasing shares is an attractive use of capital. Taken together, these actions give us more capacity to return capital while ensuring customer demand is fully met. With that, I will move to our outlook. For the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect revenue of $531 million to $533 million or 20% to 21% growth. We continue to see strong momentum in our core and expect the continued shift toward digital remittances, growth in newer geographies and the scaling of our newer businesses to once again drive year-over-year growth of more than 20%. Breaking down revenue growth. In Q4, we anticipate send volume growth to exceed revenue growth and revenue growth to exceed quarterly active customer growth. Send volume per active customer is expected to grow in the mid- to high single-digit range, supported by the continued shift in mix towards large transfers and businesses. For the full year, we expect revenue between $1.989 billion and $1.991 billion, a growth rate of 22%, reflecting strong demand in our core and growing levels of contributions from our newer businesses. Now let us pivot to profitability and expense guidance, starting with transaction margins. We expect Q4 transaction margins to moderate year-over-year as we face a tough transactional loss rate comparison in the prior year quarter. No transaction loss rates fluctuate quarter-to-quarter. We expect full year transaction margins to be modestly higher than 2025 levels on a normalized basis. Shifting to marketing. For Q4, we expect marketing spend per QAU to be modestly higher year-over-year as we invest in customer growth, extend our Skip the Line campaign and increase brand marketing. Marketing expense per QAU faces a difficult comparison in Q4 as last year benefited from a deliberate approach to holiday period spend. As a reminder, Q4 is a seasonally high marketing investment quarter. These investments set us up well for 2027. Putting this all together, we expect Q4 adjusted EBITDA to be between $104 million and $106 million or around 20% margin. For the full year, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $441 million and $443 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 22%, an expansion of more than 550 basis points year-over-year. This improved adjusted EBITDA outlook reflects a more favorable outlook for revenue, our commitment to cost discipline and our ability to leverage AI as we invest in growth. Our outlook also assumes normal levels of transaction losses for Q4. Now let me share some early thoughts on 2027. We expect revenue growth to be in the high-teens range for next year. This outlook assumes continued strength in our core and strong growth in newer businesses. As always, foreign exchange volatility, geopolitics and macroeconomic conditions are difficult to predict 1 year in advance. And while we expect to continue to take share through digital conversions of cash remittance volumes, we face a tough comp associated with the initial implementation of the 1% remittance tax. Therefore, we currently expect revenue growth to be at the lower end of this range. This is an early look, and Q4 results will be important in shaping our formal guidance for the year. Moving to profitability. We expect 2027 adjusted EBITDA margins to be broadly in line with our guidance for 2026. As noted on prior earnings calls, adjusted EBITDA in 2026 benefited from lower-than-expected expenses due primarily to the reassessment of business initiatives following Sebastian's arrival. In 2027, we expect a more normalized level of investment spending. But as always, we will remain disciplined, ensuring a high return on capital and a balance between growth and profitability. Before I close, let me come back to the framework we laid out at Investor Day last year. We remain committed to delivering more than a Rule of 40 outcome through 2028, defined as the sum of our revenue growth CAGR from 2025 to 2028 plus our 2028 adjusted EBITDA margin. This framework reflects a balanced approach to growth, profitability and investment and is the way in which we run the business. To summarize, in Q3, we delivered another quarter of excellent results across our key financial metrics. We delivered record revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin and a more than sevenfold year-over-year increase in net income, underscoring the power and scalability of our business model. With that, Sebastian and I will open up the call for your questions. Operator?