Zafar Rizvi
Analyst · South Dakota Investment Office.
I think let me say that, certainly, there is -- recently, we have seen increase in DDG value also, which is previously, it was close to 90% to 95% of the corn value. And recently, we have seen close to 100% to 106% of the corn value. Certainly, we have seen ethanol -- not ethanol, corn oil value has increased as Doug mentioned also in his prepared remarks. As far as ethanol margin, as you can see, today's corn is trading $2 -- $7.63 and ethanol is trading close to $2.48. So you can see that how much there is not enough crush margins. I think the other concern we certainly have is moving forward, as Stuart mentioned that, as you know, Ukraine produced close to 1.6 billion bushels a year. And they export about 1 billion bushels a year, they export. And we are concerned that if the export completely stopped from Ukraine and then the world moved to direction toward to U.S., then it could be some problem, a shortage of corn. Our monthly usage for U.S. is 1,000,245,000 bushels a year. And we're expecting our ending stock will be close to 1,000,044,000. And then if we roughly take it out, 300,000 to 400,000 exported -- million exported more than our stock will continuously -- will going to drop, and it may not meet the usages, which is approximately 1.2 billion bushels a month. So those are the some concerns, and that's why you can see the market is reacting. And although there is an inverse in the future and -- but presents -- there is -- that the other problem is, the market there is -- there's no carry in the corn at this time, but there is a fear of shortage of corn if Ukraine situation did not improve.