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Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN)

Q1 2025 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 30, 2025

$20.84

-0.38%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Reynolds Consumer Products First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mark Swartzberg, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

Mark Swartzberg

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Reynolds Consumer Products first quarter earnings conference call. Please note this call is being webcast on the Investor Relations section of our corporate site at reynoldsconsumerproducts.com. Our earnings press release and investor deck are also available. With me on the call today are Scott Huckins, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Nathan Lowe, our Chief Financial Officer. Following prepared remarks, we will open the call for a brief question-and-answer session. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this morning's discussion will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks, uncertainties, and changes in circumstances that could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from those described today. Please refer to the Risk Factors section in our SEC filings. The Company does not intend to update or alter these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances arising after the call. During today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of these GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings press release, Investor Presentation deck, and Form 10-Q, which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

Scott Huckins

Analyst

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. We are executing well in a dynamic consumer and retail environment. I am proud of our team for remaining nimble, staying close to our retail partners, and working at pace to manage through this period of heightened uncertainty. We also continue to invest in growth and margin expansion as we are committed to unlocking additional value for RCP and our shareholders. I will review performance and how we are driving our business before passing the call to Nathan to review the financials, our guide, and our plans for capital allocation. As you know, our priorities are to drive growth at or above our categories, expand margins, and invest in a more stable earnings growth model. We made great progress against these priorities during the quarter. We outperformed our categories by 2 points at retail, capturing share in household foil, waste bags, food bags, and non-foam disposable tableware. And we did so without an increase in promotional spend versus the year ago quarter, demonstrating our success in driving innovation and net gains in distribution including Hefty Press to Close food bags and the addition of new scents to the growing line of Hefty Fabuloso waste bags, the introduction of Hefty Compostable cutlery, leveraging and commercializing new technology from the Atacama acquisition, introducing new cooking and baking products including Reynolds Kitchen Air Fryer cups, building on our success, connecting with younger consumers and the scaling of multiple new store brand products. We delivered our earnings guide in spite of unanticipated retailer destocking in a very dynamic macro environment. And we employed our strong balance sheet to invest in the high-return growth and margin expansion programs I reviewed in February. In other words, the underlying health of our business is strong, we are acting decisively to…

Nathan Lowe

Analyst

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. I am pleased with our first quarter performance, which is consistent with the expectations we outlined in early February, in spite of the unanticipated headwind from retailer destocking. We delivered net revenues of $818 million, retail revenues of $767 million were $28 million below retail revenues in the first quarter of 2024, reflecting the headwind from later Easter timing, retailer destocking, and declines in the foam category. Across the balance of our portfolio, we grew volumes at retail and outperformed category takeaways by approximately 2 points. Non-retail revenues increased $12 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $117 million was at the midpoint of our guide and compares to $122 million of adjusted EBITDA in the year-ago period, primarily driven by lower retail sales. And adjusted earnings per share was unchanged at $0.23 versus the first quarter of 2024. Adjusted EPS excludes $0.05 of term loan refinancing costs after tax and $0.04 of strategic investments in revenue growth and operational cost savings initiatives and CEO transition costs after tax. Our fundamentals are strong, and we will continue to deploy our wide range of tools to deliver against our commercial, operational, and financial priorities in a very dynamic environment. We continue to expect 2025 net revenues to be down low single digits by comparison to 2024 net revenues and now expect adjusted EBITDA in a range of $650 million to $670 million and adjusted EPS of $1.54 to $1.61 for the year. It is worth noting that our purchases of products from countries currently subject to increased tariffs represent a single-digit percentage of our overall COGS, and we currently estimate $100 million to $200 million in cost headwinds on an annualized basis, considering both the direct and indirect impact from tariffs. We are offsetting these headwinds through a…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Kaumil Gajrawala from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Kaumil Gajrawala

Analyst

Everybody, good morning. Can we maybe dig into the retailer destocking piece of the equation? We've heard it from others as well. As it relates to your business are you -- is this something that seems temporary, maybe just a onetime adjustment to permanently lower inventories or is this something that is maybe just related to retailers operating differently in this environment and perhaps there'll be some of a -- somewhat of a reversal as we get into the back half of the year.

Scott Huckins

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for the question. I guess, as we evaluated the first quarter, we certainly did incur headwinds from retailer destocking. We don't have any reason to think there'll be a step change on a go-forward basis. Meaning, Kaumil, I'm not expecting to see a reversal of that. Our assumption is that what happened in the first quarter sort of flows through the balance of the year. We've been pouring over April results, trying to figure out whether there's a step change in it. It's not conclusive at this point. We don't have the benefit of even a full month's worth of data. And of course, we're also trying to figure out the Easter lap in the timing difference this year versus last year. So I'd say we certainly saw it in Q1. Our assumption is that, you know, that is permanent and flows to the full year.

Kaumil Gajrawala

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then on some of the strategic expenses, I guess, revenue growth management and some of the other things, Nathan, that you mentioned, along with the CapEx, is this -- is that the same thing? Do they overlap? How should we just think about really how you're -- what you're investing in to evolve the business forward?

Scott Huckins

Analyst

Good question. So the strategic investments that we're referring to there are really focused on the P&L. I think you hit it. And just to remind everybody, we have three things happening. We're evaluating and developing the implementation of revenue growth management, we're evaluating cost outwork around all things procurement, so you know, any and all third-party input costs. And then lastly, evaluating the efficiency of our overall supply chain network. So those are P&L dollars that as you know, we baked into our guide and added back from an EBITDA standpoint, that's separate from capital. I'll let Nathan comment on capital.

Nathan Lowe

Analyst

Yes. I mean, I can give you, I guess, a little bit of a flavor of some of the capital work we're doing, Kaumil. But in general, I think we talked a little bit about this earlier in the year was we've really gone through all of our manufacturing operations to get a sense of the level of automation in all components. And where we have opportunities, we're now ranking, stacking them, and executing against that.

Kaumil Gajrawala

Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Peter Grom from UBS. Please go ahead.

Peter Grom

Analyst

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Hope you're doing well. I was hoping to just get some color on what is now contemplated in the guidance from a category growth perspective. You mentioned it's worse versus the prior outlook. But is there any way you can maybe provide some guardrails in terms of what you're expecting?

Nathan Lowe

Analyst

Yes. Sure. Really, two factors account for the change for the guide. I mean, you could see in our guide that it now contemplates what's the revenue guide is unchanged. It now contemplates a greater quantum of pricing. So, the two factors I would say that are the offset to that with a lower expectation of retail volumes. First of all, the retailer destocking was a factor in the first quarter. As Scott just said, we don't expect that to reverse. So that equates to roughly a point headwind for the full year. The balance of the change really relates to the consumer being under pressure in general, as well as elasticity implications from higher prices that we expect to show up at retail.

Peter Grom

Analyst

That's super helpful, Nathan. I guess, just following up on just the cost headwinds, and I would love to just maybe get some perspective on phasing. How should we think about the mitigation impact as we move through the year? I guess what I'm trying to get at is you outlined $100 million to $200 million of what I think are gross impacts related to the tariffs and indirect costs. But just any thoughts in terms of how we should be thinking about the net impact as we move through the balance of the year would be helpful.

Nathan Lowe

Analyst

Yes, I think probably the best way to think about it is we've given a range of pricing outcomes, and they generally tied to the range of cost headwinds that we would anticipate to show up in the year, which is different to the $100 million to $200 million of annualized costs. So, I think if you factor all that, and it gives you a decent sense. In general, I think, you know, most of our cost flow through timing ranges from two to six months, depending on the part of the business. So you'd expect that to be true from any impact of tariffs.

Peter Grom

Analyst

Thank you so much. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Lauren Lieberman

Analyst

Great. Thanks. I was wondering if you could first just talk a little bit about where exactly the tariff pressure is coming from. I know you said it's direct and indirect, but just curious about finished goods, packaging, raw materials. If you could give us any delineation on that. Thanks.

Nathan Lowe

Analyst

Yep. Certainly. So probably just worth unpacking it a little bit further. Clearly an area of interest. So, as I mentioned, and as a reminder, our direct tariff exposure represents roughly a single digit of our overall COGS. The $100 million to $200 million in annualized cost increases includes both the direct and indirect impact of tariffs, with the indirect impact commodities such as aluminum contributing significantly to these costs. We've deliberately contemplated a range of outcomes to account for the tariffs -- and for any tariffs announced since January, including the impact they may have on commodity markets. For completeness, our revenue guide contemplates a range of pricing outcomes similar to the range of tariff outcomes in response to the headwinds. At the middle of the range, approximately 50% of the headwind would be from commodities, the balance would be on what we would consider the direct impact of tariffs from importing either finished goods or in some cases.

Lauren Lieberman

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you. And then also just curious on this reassignment of product lines related to international distribution. Just curious if you can give us some more color to kind of explain with more words what that is and why. Thanks.

Nathan Lowe

Analyst

Yes. Sure. I mean, the international business represents less than 5% of our revenue. Over time, that business has developed and grown away from what was used to be the core business in cooking and baking. So now that it has more breadth across the RCP categories, we thought it made sense to better align them with the commercial activities in the domestic business. Just with the intent, of course, growing faster.

Lauren Lieberman

Analyst

Okay. So previously, all of international was reported in cooking and baking, and now you're putting it in the business lines, is that right?

Nathan Lowe

Analyst

That's exactly right.

Lauren Lieberman

Analyst

Perfect. Okay. Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Andrea Teixeira

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, everyone. I was just hoping to see if you can comment how consumption has performed in the exit of the quarter, and then in terms of like the pricing realization that you talked about, what we should expect in terms of support, it seems like you're pricing it. You're assuming, of course, some elasticity, as Nathan you mentioned. But also how we should be thinking of that $20 million reduction at the midpoint of your EBITDA. If you're thinking, part of it is coming from supporting scaffolding these price increases with promo. So, how we should be thinking of number one, consumption as we exit; and number two, how promotional environment has been in relation to private label and all of that -- details that are important.

Nathan Lowe

Analyst

Might hit these in reverse. So what I heard was explaining the $20 million EBITDA, a little bit in the context of volume expectations, some understanding of the timing of pricing, and then the exit performance of consumption, I think out of Q1 and into April. So I'll start with the last one. Our lower EBITDA guide, which we lowered $20 million as you pointed out, contemplates really just our lower retail volume expectation. The revenue guide is unchanged, but the pricing component of that really just serves to neutralize both the direct and indirect impact of tariffs. So it's a net neutral. So what you're seeing is the volume flow through which I unpacked a few minutes ago. As for the price timing, it's really related to the timing of when tariffs have been announced and then our response to those respective announcements. So from the first tariffs that were announced late January, early February, you start to see some pricing recovery of that, showing up in the second quarter. And for the other tariffs later in the second quarter, you would see some of those.

Scott Huckins

Analyst

And hi Andrea, it's Scott, I'll try to pick on the remaining questions. I think the first was around consumption in the quarter. I'd say at the macro level at retail, the business performed very much like we had expected, specifically the categories at retail down to, as I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we outperformed the categories by about two, so call that flat. Destocking was the net effect of what flowed through the P&L. As I reflect on the quarter -- by month, I think it'd be fair to say March was actually better than my reflections or our reflections on Jan and Feb. So maybe that's a bit of perspective. I think you also asked about the promotion environment, so a couple of points on that. I think in prepared remarks, we wanted to make clear that our outperformance in the quarter -- first quarter was actually not driven by an increase in promotion. Just to make sure that point is clear. And second point I'd offer is, we do think we'll see a bit of an increase in promotion in the second quarter, directly linked to some of the distribution wins and gains that we commented on in prepared remarks. And then I think third, kind of wrap up, as we think about 2025 taken as a whole, we would expect promotion to look a lot like 2024, certainly across the overwhelming majority of our categories. And that in fact looks a lot like what we experienced and saw in the business pre-pandemic.

Andrea Teixeira

Analyst

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Javier Escalante from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Javier Escalante

Analyst

Hello. Good morning, everyone. I wonder whether you can discuss Q1 and how that informs your Q2 forecast, this dynamic of retail destocking versus consumer demand. Because what is happening in tableware is very different to what is happening in Hefty, which you have very strong growth. So I'm a little bit surprised by Q2, given that you have distribution gains and you have the benefit of the Easter shift. So why is it that the expectation is for sales to be down 2% to 5%?

Scott Huckins

Analyst

Yes, it's a great question, Javier. I think, generally speaking, for the balance of the year, our assumptions for revenue are consistent in each quarter. So Q2 very similar to what we're saying for the balance of the year guide. With retail volumes down, of course, we don't have the same level of pricing in Q2, which I just mentioned. Your observation about Easter is astute. I think that the counter to that, that's balancing that out, is that what we did see in some of our categories was a little bit of consumer pantry loading in the first quarter, purchasing ahead of tariffs. So you'd expect some of that unwind, if you will, in the second quarter. And that largely offsets the benefit of the Easter volume increase.

Javier Escalante

Analyst

And a follow-up, if you can comment on because it's part of what it have reduced purchase frequencies because people are buying in club and buying online. If you can tell us how much of your sales do you believe are taking place are online, and thinking about reinvestments, whether you think that shift would eventually require some sort of a system upgrade, as we had seen in other players in HPC. Thank you.

Scott Huckins

Analyst

Good morning, Javier. So I think the first part of the question is about channel and channel shift. I think it's fair to say that the research we've looked at suggests that club has taken share across retail categories, as has omnichannel or online business taken as a whole. In terms of what that portends for investment, I wouldn't say anything different than I answered earlier about again taking our categories as a whole, '25 looking a lot like '24, across the overwhelming majority of our portfolio. I think your last one was about percentage of our business online. And I guess, what we'd share is the analysis we see suggests that retailers are somewhere in the high teens in their percentage of business that are deemed online or omnichannel. And our results would be quite consistent with that.

Javier Escalante

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Bill Chappell from Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

David Holcomb

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. This is David Holcomb on for Bill Chappell. We've talked a lot about productivity and RGM and other things that are, I guess, pretty relevant to the consumer backdrop these days. But I was wondering if you could kind of give us a little bit of color on how the innovation pipeline is looking for this year, given that it's one of your drivers of accelerating growth on top line.

Nathan Lowe

Analyst

Yes. Thanks for the question. So I'll start. I'd offer -- we're feeling pretty good about the innovation pipeline and a couple of examples. One would be -- we have another cent added to our Hefty Fabuloso lineup. We are gaining distribution with that and investing behind that. That would be a good example of, I think we talked about in our Q4 call, really prioritizing and resourcing innovation based on scale. The second one would be a different example, which is the launch of Hefty Compostable cutlery. We're pretty excited about that because that's the first commercialization of the technology and resin work for the Atacama acquisition from late in 2023. And our assessment is that that will do well in the marketplace, albeit this is early days. This is the first launch, but I'm trying to kind of share two very different forms of innovation as examples about what makes us excited.

David Holcomb

Analyst

Great. Thanks for that color. I guess I'll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Brian McNamara from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Brian McNamara

Analyst

Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. This might have been asked in a couple of different ways already, but I was hoping you would give some clarity here. Can you remind us of your pricing mechanics, particularly in aluminum foil, and the lag between when you take pricing with your customers and when it actually hits retailer shelves? I'm assuming that destocking alters that typical timeline. And then in this environment, would you expect private label to kind of gain share, or do you think just maintaining price gaps will be sufficient to holding branded share? Thank you.

Scott Huckins

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for the question. I'll start on, I think your private label question. I'd say when we look at the categories taken as a whole, they're actually quite stable. We don't see significant changes in one direction or another. So, for instance, as we looked at the first quarter, we see a couple of categories might have added a point or two of store brand share gains, and we would see other categories where store brands lost a point or two. An interesting learning from the quarter was for our three largest categories. So that would be foil, waste bags, and food bags. One, RCP enjoyed retail takeaway growth. And two, in each of those categories, store brands actually took a step back in share. Just to provide some context directly on point with the largest parts of our business. And I'll refer to Nathan on the balance.

Nathan Lowe

Analyst

Yes. Thanks. Brian, so I think really you're asking what our cost flow through timing is, and then how that lines up with pricing. I would say our costs would not flow through in a period shorter than two months, and they would not flow through in a period longer than six. It varies a lot by business and product category, but that's the range. Conveniently, that's also roughly the amount of time it takes to communicate pricing to retailers and then start to see those flowing through itself.

Brian McNamara

Analyst

Very helpful. Thank you guys.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Scott Huckins, CEO, for closing comments.

Scott Huckins

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for your time today and your interest in our business. We wish you a great rest of your day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.