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Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated (RGA)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 24, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Please stand by. We are about to begin. Good day and welcome to the Reinsurance Group of America's Second Quarter 2015 Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to introduce the President and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Greig Woodring and Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Jack Lay. Please go ahead, Mr. Lay. Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: Okay. Thank you. Good morning and welcome to everyone joining us for RGA's second quarter 2015 conference call. With me this morning in St. Louis is Greig Woodring, our Chief Executive Officer. Greig and I will discuss the second quarter results after a quick reminder of our forward-looking information and non-GAAP financial measures. Following our prepared remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. To help you better understand RGA's business, we will make certain statements and discuss certain subjects during this call that will contain forward-looking information, including among other things, investment performance, statements relating to projections of revenue or earnings, and future financial performance and growth potential of RGA and its subsidiaries. Keep in mind, actual results could differ materially from expected results. A list of important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expected results is included in the earnings release we issued yesterday. In addition, during the course of this call, we will make comments on our pre-tax and after-tax basis for operating income, which is considered a non-GAAP financial measure under SEC regulations. We believe this measure better reflects the ongoing profitability and underlying trends of our business. Please refer to the tables in the press release and quarterly financial supplement for more information on this measure and reconciliations of operating income to net income for our…

Operator

Operator

We'll go first to Humphrey Lee with Dowling & Partners. Humphrey Hung Fai Lee - Dowling & Partners Securities LLC: Good morning, guys. A quick question about the Australia, so you mentioned that this kind of the adverse experience were kind of across multiple lines, maybe can you give us a little bit color in terms of what specific lines were underperformed in the quarter? And then also kind of talk about the overall kind of TPD experiences in terms of – relative to your reserve assumptions? Albert Greig Woodring - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Humphrey, I'll take the first part and I'll let Jack talk about the reserves. Experience in the first quarter, if you remember, we talked about that as being favorable and that we viewed it as something that we were going to get back during the course of the year, because it was just too favorable, and that's sure enough was the case. And the experience comes about because of individual life, individual disability, group, both disability and TPD and group life, all up or down at any given time. There is more disability effect than anything that tends to be the more volatilized both on the individual and the group side and that was the case both in the first quarter and the second quarter. Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: I think the question related to reserve levels. You recall, we setup up a significant additional reserve in the second quarter of 2013. We're comfortable with the balance sheet and the reserve levels in the Australian operation currently. As Greig indicated, some of the noise, actually in the first quarter and second quarter of this year, doesn't really relate to the stability of the reserve levels there. It…

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Dan Bergman with UBS.

Daniel B. Bergman - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. I guess, first, I was curious if you could give some thoughts around how the Aurora acquisition performed relative to your expectations? And, additionally, how we should think about how those earnings are going to be split between your segments going forward? Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: Yeah. This is Jack. The Aurora transaction performed very well for us, pretty much ahead of our expectation, maybe a slightly higher and the lion share of those earnings will be reflected in the U.S. Asset-Intensive business. They were in this quarter and won't be going forward. Albert Greig Woodring - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: There's some mortality, but more of it is asset-intensive.

Daniel B. Bergman - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Great. Thanks. And then, may be just switching gears a little bit I thought you signed a number of longevity reinsurance deals in EMEA in the quarter. I just wonder if you can give us some thoughts on what drove that trend or if it was just kind of deal specific? And in terms of going forward, do you expect that Europe longevity reinsurance markets remain active? Albert Greig Woodring - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. We certainly expect the longevity globally to remain active, and increasingly so. These transactions very often take a long time to germinate and to reach fruition. And so it's really difficult to predict what quarter we're going to transact in. But, yeah, we have been very successful in the first part of this year. And in fact in the last several years in that line of business and experience has been – expectations are better so far.

Daniel B. Bergman - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Erik Bass with Citigroup.

Erik J. Bass - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Hi. Thank you. I guess based on your comments it sounds like the elevated mortality claims in the U.S. you think were a carryover from the harsh winter. However I think if we look over the past couple of years it seems like U.S. mortality has generally been a little bit worse than expectations. So are there other factors that you're seeing that are affecting the performance of the block? Albert Greig Woodring - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Not really. The first quarters have been high and they typically reflect some amount of flu deaths and respiratory deaths. As mentioned as we have gotten some cause of death information, we saw an elevation of our respiratory deaths of from about 18% to 20% or so, something like that. And it looks like April is going to be about the same place, although those returns aren't all yet in. And if you remember we've had very good fourth quarter mortality in the last couple years. In fact I would say in 2013, our U.S. mortality overall for the year was pretty good, and last year was just a little bit bad. We had a couple bad quarters. And the fourth quarter did not make up for the poor experience totally. But that's the nature of mortality business. It can go either way, and it does. And so we're looking forward to – after some negative fluctuations, hopefully we're due for some positive fluctuations coming up here in the latter part of this year. But we don't really know that. We will be watching it very carefully for the rest of the year. Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: Erik, this is Jack. The only point I would add is we have seen some degree of elevated claims experience associated with advanced age cases over the last several quarters. So we continue to pry into that and analyze that to see if there's any additional information that we can glean. But that would be the only additional color I would add.

Erik J. Bass - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks. So it's not something where you're seeing, like the way you had identified the older – like the 1999 through 2004 block or something like that, where there's a specific vintage of policies where there's a little bit elevated experience. Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: No. That – the deaths come from different places, and it bounces around a little bit. It's hard to read one quarter. That particular generation as you know has been problematic for us for some time. It actually hasn't been that bad this year compared to other generations of our business.

Erik J. Bass - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Got it. And then if I can just ask one follow up on the longevity business in EMEA, is how much competition is there for that business now? And have the market dynamics changed at all due to the changes that you've seen in the annuity market in the UK? Albert Greig Woodring - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. There's less of the business available in the UK. There is a plenty of competition, but I would say that the supply of business available still exceeds the demand from reinsurers or the risk takers for that business to the point where we can find places where we can transact at our pricing effectively and have done so. We are looking at opportunities in other markets as well as the UK, which is still the largest longevity market in the world. But we are looking at other markets, and we expect that those markets will grow in terms of demand as well.

Erik J. Bass - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Sean Dargan with Macquarie. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Yeah. Thank you and good morning. I just want to follow-up on Erik's question around U.S. mortality. I think, Greig and Jack, you both mentioned older age mortality in recent vintages. But I think some investors are concerned that maybe a by-product of investor-owned life insurance and kind of high face value, older age policies that the primary carriers were writing. Do you have a read on whether there are any similar characteristics around the old age claims you've been getting? Albert Greig Woodring - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So, always difficult to do this analysis with that perspective, but older age or older attained age mortality is very consistent with the flu epidemic. In fact, if you look at when we talk about some of the newer vintages did newer issue years did actually have some higher experience this quarter than others. That's not always been the case. It was particularly in this quarter. And so it is something that has gripped our attention. Most of what we're talking about though comes after the time of the real STOLI business in the U.S. So this is more recent than that during the heart of that era. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: And if you can remind us... Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: And, Sean... Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Yeah, sorry. Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: Well, I was just going to – this is Jack, I was just going to comment, it's very difficult for us to tell whether the reason for the issuance of policy and whether there is – there are investors involved other…

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Hi, good morning. I had a few questions. First on the asset-intensive business. You had a pretty strong quarter in 2Q. So just wondering how much of the upside was driven by high alternative investment income versus maybe contribution from some of the recent transactions, and how do you think about the earnings power of that business? And then secondly, maybe just talk about your decision-making – what went into your decision to raise the dividend – you raised it by a greater amount than you raised it last year and how do you think about long-term increases in the dividend rate, should it be closer to what it was in 2015 or last year why did you raise it more? Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: Okay. Jimmy, this is Jack. Let me respond to those questions. In terms of broadly speaking of variable investment income, we probably benefited by close to $10 million for the quarter above and beyond what would be an expected rate, so it's all...

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Pre-tax, that's pre-tax? Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: That's pre-tax number, that's right.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Yeah. Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: And that's not unusual because you're going to have significant investments for commercial mortgage loans that prepay. But that's roughly the size. In terms of the earnings power, for the U.S. asset-intensive business, we project about a $50 million run rate right now, and it will be a little bit higher or lower every quarter but that's a pretty good baseline. In terms of the dividend, we tried to peg a double-digit increase. We think that should be attractive to investors. So we ended up at 12%. We'd like to think if we continue to generate capital in a manner in which we've experienced last several years that we hope we can continue a rate of increase every year. We certainly will consider it every year. There is no – in our case, they will be able to meet double-digit increases every year but we'd like to be able to strongly consider that year after year. So that is what kind of played into the decision to move it up via a 12% increase.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

And then last. Yeah... Albert Greig Woodring - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sorry, Jo (sic) [Jimmy] (31:20), I was just going to point out this is five-years in a row of double-digit increases. So, as Jack said, that did factor into our decision making.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay. And then, lastly, on share buybacks, you mentioned you might be a little later in the third quarter depending on deal activity and maybe little faster in the fourth quarter. But assuming there aren't any major deals, do you expect to complete the program this year or would you carry some of it over to next year as well? Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: Jimmy, it's hard to say. When you try to compare buybacks against the backdrop of other opportunities to deploy into the business it's always hard to make that call because even if we don't close any significant deals this year, there is always some degree of discussion and negotiation underway. And we always want to maintain some degree of capital to be able to take advantage of some of those opportunities. So, I wouldn't say it's a high probability that we will use the entire additional authorization, but it does give us flexibility, and I think that's about all I can say on the subject.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Ryan Krueger with KBW. Ryan J. Krueger - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Hey, thanks. Good morning. First one was, just back to EMEA Non-Traditional earnings, we are very strong in the quarter. Can you help us to think about what the run rate expectation is in that business going forward? Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: First of all, you're right. The Non-Traditional has been an area of opportunity for us in EMEA, because of Solvency II, because of capital and realignment concerns among the EMEA companies. And so we've been there with solutions for those companies and helping out in the marketplace. It's always difficult to get. First of all, you can't predict when and how much in the way of new transactions are going to occur on this. This is much like an acquisition pipeline. It is unpredictable and in both size and timing. But as you put a block of business on it that generates a stream of income for the future, sometimes that future might be short term say 3 to 5 years, and sometimes it might be longer term 5 to 10 years. But the run rate now is building slowly. Ryan J. Krueger - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Okay. And then on the – I guess the block acquisition pipeline. At least from the public reports, it seems like there is a lot of activity going on right now. Do you feel like the activity kind of behind the scenes has picked up this year? And are you relatively optimistic that you'll get some transactions done over the next six months or so? Albert Greig Woodring - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well we're always optimistic; we're working on a lot of things.…

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Steven Schwartz with Raymond James & Associates. Steven D. Schwartz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Hey, good morning, guys. Back to the question of Japan actually, earlier question. Greig you're talking about the pipeline being good, but I did note in the quarter, Asia-Pacific assumed new production was down a lot year-over-year, down and obviously it has something to do with yen as well I would imagine in currency. But also down significantly from the March quarter. I know that's a sloppy number, but is there any take away from that? Albert Greig Woodring - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: No, I think we think of Asia being a growth engine for us. And I don't off the top of my head here have the actual growth rate in Asia directly. But we've seen good growth and especially good growth in the bottom line, overall that business has been chugging along. And we've been producing a substantial contribution to RGA and it's growing at a nice clip, and the bigger it gets the more noticeable it gets. We have survived a first two quarters of pretty poor U.S. mortality, especially the first quarter, first four months were not good at all. And we are a little bit behind where we would like to be, but we're expecting that by the end of the year, we're going to be exactly, where we originally set out to be that. We see a lot of positives and a lot of trends that look positive in our results so far through the first six months in spite of the fact that, it isn't overall where we wanted to be. Steven D. Schwartz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Okay. And then, some number of questions for Jack. Jack,…

Operator

Operator

And we have no other questions at this time. Jack B. Lay - CFO, SEVP & Principal Accounting Officer: Okay. Well, if there're no other questions, we will end the second quarter earnings release conference call. Thanks to everybody who participated. And to the extent any other questions come up, feel free to give us a call here in St. Louis. With that, we'll end the call. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.