Michael Nierenberg
Analyst
The way I would – first of all, on our MSR portfolio, we put in that slide, I think it was on Page 12 or something but just, the way that we're seeing speeds, and again, we gave you the relative – the comparison to March of 2015, when that was the last time mortgage rates were roughly 3.65%. I think we feel pretty good about our portfolio. We're not seeing a huge pick-up in speeds currently. There's a couple reasons. One is you're in the winter time, right? So you have this seasonality effect. But the other point, Michael, is that the average seasoning of our portfolio is 109 months. When you look at our LTVs, our LTVs are much higher than the industry, our loan balances are much lower than the industry. The borrowers, the underlying borrowers in these mortgages have seen the lows in rates many times. So I think, listen, we are always nervous, right? We should be because that's what we should be doing but while saying that, Nationstar, they have a renewed effort around their recapture percentages. Their Fannie/Freddie stuff, hopefully, will creep into the 30s; the Ginnie stuff is 25%; the Non-Agency stuff is 13%, so I think, all in all, that is good. The other thing to point out is, when you look at our $400 billion of MSRs, roughly two-thirds of the market value is in private-label servicing, which, again, has more delinquencies. It's much stickier. And I think that we should be fine. I really do. We do have some sensitivity as we look at our portfolio and the world and how we think about things, and just to give you a sense, if recapture rates go up by 2%, the value of our portfolio would go up by 1.2%. If prepayments are up by one CPR, the value goes down by roughly 2.8. If delinquencies go down by one CPR – 1% for example, the value of our portfolio goes up by 2.7%. So there’s a lot of numbers here, but I guess – the bigger point is we’ve seen these rates before, our portfolio is different, that’s why we love it. We didn’t deploy a lot of capital, in last year, in the MSR business for us, for the reasons that I think we all know. We didn’t find the investment as attractive, yields were lower and a lot of stuff we saw was new production. So we feel very good about that. To give you an estimate on book value, now I just don’t think we could do at this point.