Earnings Labs

Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 8, 2024

$78.44

-4.67%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Rocket Lab Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results Update and Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Morgan Connaughton, Vice President of Communications at Rocket Lab. Please go ahead.

Morgan Connaughton

Analyst

Thank you. Hello and welcome to today's conference call to discuss Rocket Lab's Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results. Before we begin the call, I would like to remind you that our remarks may contain forward-looking statements that relate to the future performance of the company, and these statements are intended to qualify for the safe harbor protection from liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Any such statements are not guarantees of future performance, and factors that could influence our results are highlighted in today's press release, and others are contained in our filings with the Security and Exchange Commission. Such statements are based upon information available to the company, as of the date hereof, and subject to change for future developments. Except as required by law, the company does not undertake any obligation to update these statements. Our remarks and press release today also contain non-GAAP financial measures within the meaning of Regulation G enacted by the SEC. Included in such release and our supplemental materials are reconciliations of these historical non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. This call is also being webcast with a supporting presentation and replay of the copy of the presentation will be available on our website. Today's speakers are our Rocket Lab Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Sir Peter Beck; as well as Chief Financial Officer, Adam Spice. They will be discussing key business highlights as well as updates on our Electron, Neutron and Space Systems programs. We will discuss financial highlights and outlook before we finish by taking questions. So with that, let me turn the call over to Sir Peter.

Peter Beck

Analyst

Thanks very much Morgan and thank you all for joining us today. We've delivered an exceptionally strong second quarter this year and I'm looking forward to taking you through all of the highlights and achievements. But before we get there I wanted to spend some time talking about who we are today, where Rocket Lab is headed in the future and the very deliberate and strategic steps we're taking to get there. One of the common misconceptions we've faced is that Rocket Lab is a launch company. Yes, launch is something that we're an industry leader in and of course rocket being in the name doesn't help but it's just part of what we do. I'd like to look at this in three clear steps. First the ride. To do important things in space you first have to get there. We've solved this with small launch with Electron and we're breaking the medium launch monopoly with Neutron. Next the tools to do the things in space once you get there. This is spacecraft, the critical components that make them function, the software, the ground systems and all the other pieces that make missions possible in orbit. We're reliably delivering this for commercial government and customers today. With the first two comfortably under our belt, our future and the whole reason for going to space is in the first place the data and the services that spacecraft provide. It's the most valuable part of the supply chain. Demand for it is growing worldwide and it's what will deliver long term recurring revenue and incremental value for shareholders. By owning launch and spacecraft, we're at a distinct advantage when it comes to establishing our own space capabilities or constellations. We can build and launch our own spacecraft at cost and we don't…

Adam Spice

Analyst

Thanks Pete. Second quarter, 2024 revenue was $106 million, which was consistent with our prior guidance range and reflects significant year-on-year growth of 71% and sequential growth of 15%, driven by strong contribution from both business segments, led by Space Systems. Our Launch Services segment delivered revenue of $29.4 million, slightly above our guidance of $28 million to $29 million. Our current backlog continues to support our current year target average revenue per launch of $7.5 million, with some quarterly variability tied to volume purchase discounts, launch location, and mission assurance requirements. Our space system segment delivered $77 million in the quarter, again, in-line with our prior guidance range of $77 million to $81 million, reflecting sequential growth of over 28% driven primarily by growth in our SDA and MDA contracts revenue. Now turning to gross margin. GAAP gross margin for the second quarter was 25.6%, in-line with our prior guidance range of 24% to 26%. Non-GAAP gross margin for the second quarter was 30.7%, which was also in-line with our prior guidance range of 30% to 32%. Relatedly, we ended Q2 with production-related headcount of 914, up 42 from the prior quarter. Turning to backlog. We ended Q2 2024 with $1.07 billion of total backlog, with launch backlog of $294 million and space systems backlog of $772.6 million. Relative to Q1 2024, total backlog was up 5% sequentially or $51 million, despite $106 million revenue quarter, as strong bookings continued in our launch and space systems businesses. For launch, backlog was up 36% sequentially or $78.3 million, primarily due to the 10 launch agreement with the Synspective that Pete mentioned earlier. We continue to cultivate a healthy pipeline, including multi-launch deals and large satellite manufacturing contracts that can create lumpiness in our backlog growth, given the size and complexity…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Edison Yu with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Edison Yu

Analyst

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking our questions and all the progress. First one on Neutron, obviously you've made a lot of progress. You've got the hot fire test. What should we look for as the next big milestones as we think about the first launch in the next year?

Peter Beck

Analyst

Yeah, hey, Edison. So, as we've always kind of pointed out, I mean the things to watch are infrastructure build. So the launch pad taking shape and becoming ready to receive a rocket. Keep a lookout for tanks and large structures and we're at right now is we're in the qualification phase. So we're starting to prepare for the really big tests like full-scale stage separation test, full-scale fairing openings, landing lead deployments and all those kinds of things. So we'll provide a pretty healthy update of all those achievements that come along. But that's kind of the cycle we're in. Like I said on the call, design is done and every component in the rocket is either in production or some form of qualification test.

Edison Yu

Analyst

Gotcha. And then kind of more of a financial one on Neutron. So, you know, we're looking at the cost of several rocket programs. You may have seen this, analysis, typically, they cost many times more than what you're allocating for Neutron. What do you think that you guys are doing differently relative to some of these other programs, whether it's legacy or startups, that's enabling you to actually develop such a robust rocket at a much lower program cost?

Peter Beck

Analyst

Yeah well I think firstly, that it needs to be backed up by data and fortunately that analysis did. If you look at the cost and time that it took us to develop Electron, you know you can see as you point out we can do these things at a very fast time and a very low cost. And I guess that comes down to our development approach and even if you just look at the example of the Archimedes engine, as I mentioned in the call, what a lot of folks do is they'll put together various subscale tests or boilerplate engines that have lots of industrial valves bolted to them and whatnot. But especially now that we've been around the block a few times, we're able to confidently build an entirely flight-ready engine, put it on the stand and it works. So it comes down to just the experience of the team and also a development approach. We like to fail fast but not at the system level. We'll fail quickly at the component level, but by the time things get built up into complete systems, we kind of expect them to work. And it's just the way that we've always been. It's the Rocket Lab magic, if you will. And right throughout the history of the company, we've always managed to develop these systems at a speed and a cost that pretty much others can't.

Edison Yu

Analyst

All right. And if I could just sneak in one more financial one. I think the implied 3Q guide is three launches. Do we have any updated thoughts on what we could do for the full year for Electron?

Peter Beck

Analyst

Yeah, I mean it's really difficult to predict. As you see, launches move around all the time. And as we tried to explain in the call, that's kind of the value proposition for the business. Internally here, we worry less about that as we kind of pointed out that the majority of the cash is collected through that billing cycle. But launches move around tremendously. And I guess we're trying to kind of provide that color for folks so that they can see how the business really operates.

Edison Yu

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Erik Rasmussen with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Erik Rasmussen

Analyst

Yeah, thanks for taking the questions. And I appreciate all the detail. There's a lot there to unpack. But maybe just to piggyback off that question, I realize that launch has been always tough to sort of predict. I know the manifest seems like it's filling up each quarter, but it's always sort of customer readiness and other things that can push things out. But Adam had mentioned in Q4 we'll see a resumption of growth in both segments. If we're sort of assuming three launches and that's about implied $7 million ASP. I'm just trying to sort of dissect, does that mean if we're back to sort of a $7.5 million ASP for Q4, at three launches that obviously gets us more a higher revenue, but would we also I guess see -- is it potential to see even more than three launches in Q4?

Adam Spice

Analyst

Yeah Erik it's Adam. So I think the way to look at that is yeah I mean we are as you pointed to my remarks at the end of my prepared statement, is we do see significant growth returning to the business as we exit the year. And it's not off of a small increase of ASP, you know, sequentially. So we expect to be able to launch significantly more in Q4 than we are in Q3. You know, whether that means you go from three launches to four launches or from three launches to say seven launches. I think that's kind of the range that we're kind of operating within and that's really kind of guided by, again kind of the customer readiness. And we've done quite a bit of work looking into kind of where these slippages occur and we can't -- the slippages are always can be driven by customer readiness. But, in this case, we didn't have -- when we look at the manifest that we had coming into 2024, there hasn't been a mission on that manifest that we couldn't support from a production perspective. Any volatility we've seen versus kind of that manifest has all been kind of customer delay related. But as Pete said, that's part of the business and why people pay us to get a premium to be on a dedicated small launcher versus being on a rideshare. So it's kind of uncomfortable in one respect but also comforting in the other respect that people see value in that flexibility.

Erik Rasmussen

Analyst

Gotcha. Thanks. That's helpful. And then maybe just -- we're seeing a step up in non-GAAP OpEx, $69 million to $71 million, which we were at about $58 million in Q2. Is this sort of the right range as we should think about the back half of the year? I mean, we've gotten guidance for Q3, but just thinking in terms of the look through of Q4.

Adam Spice

Analyst

As we've said many times, these rocket programs are challenging on lots of levels, including being able to predict the timing of when certain expenses are going to hit up, because you can make your commitments at one point and then you can face delays or actually in some cases get things that pull into the left as well. So I'd say in general, I think that you should think about Neutron spending, continuing to grow sequentially from Q3 into Q4. So that'll kind of drive overall OpEx in that same direction. But we're not looking at step function increases, it's more kind of just more kind of, I would say on a relatively predictable slope of that curve. We would expect that that spending would start to trail off, obviously as we start to approach first launch of the vehicle, which we are talking about middle of next year. So I think we probably still have, you know, I'd say at least, you know, I'd say one quarter of kind of increased spend kind of velocity, and then perhaps it starts to kind of plateau and then trail off as we approach the first launch.

Erik Rasmussen

Analyst

Great. Maybe if I could just add one more. It looks like you served for a successful test of a hot fire for the Archimedes. I mean, would you say that now this coincides with your timeline to get Neutrons to the pad by mid-2025? I think Peter, you had mentioned that that's still on track, but does this now give you a lot more comfort in that no earlier than mid 2025?

Peter Beck

Analyst

Yeah, Eric, it's certainly on the right side of the equation. So from here on in there's more kind of testing to be done but certainly our approach here was to put the flight engine on the stand and take it to full power. That buys down just all the risk really. So there's still obviously qualification of the engine to go but certainly that gives us a lot of confidence to move forward.

Erik Rasmussen

Analyst

Great. I'll step back in the queue and congrats on the results and progress.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Kristine Liwag

Analyst

Hey, good afternoon everyone. Peter and Adam, you know, on the data and services initiative, can you provide more color in exactly what kind of capabilities and solutions you're providing, areas you're targeting, and maybe it's a little early, but any sort of indication of how you think about economics of what a mature data and services capability could provide for you.

Peter Beck

Analyst

Yeah, hey Kristine. So look, if you break up the industry, launch is about a $10 billion TAM spacecraft or services spacecraft is about a [$20 billion] (ph). And then services from orbit is about a $320 billion TAM. So if you have the first two, then your ability to compete in the second one becomes incredibly strong. And I would say that we're not ready to talk about what particular applications that we're pursuing. Right now we are focused on building capability to go after some applications that we find interesting. But clearly getting into a $320 billion TAM where you think you can be pretty disruptive is a great place to be and where we've been anchoring for a long time. But like I say, it's too early to really provide too much color on where we're headed with that.

Kristine Liwag

Analyst

Great. Thank you. I'll keep it to one.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will cover the line of Jason Gursky with Citi. Please go ahead. Jason, your line might be on mute.

Jason Gursky

Analyst

Indeed it was. Sorry about that. Hello, everybody. If you could just quick follow up on that last one on the services side of it, the $320 billion TAM. Maybe you can just educate us on, you know, kind of I'll use a baseball analogy if you'll humor me, kind of what inning you're in on the development of that. What other capabilities do you need. And when do you expect kind of an unveiling of what you're up to there from a timing perspective?

Peter Beck

Analyst

Well, I'm going to horrify you Jason, because I'm from New Zealand, I only know rugby. So a baseball analogy has lost on me completely. But I would say that, you can, I think you can look at the acquisitions, the kind of spacecraft we're building and the scaling that we're doing to kind of bring some comfort in where we're trying to head with this. Like I say, it would be incorrect for me to really provide too much steering, but I mean it is clearly, I've been very public in the fact that I think the large space companies of the future are the ones that are going to have the ability to build whatever spacecraft they need to build, the ability to launch them on demand and deploy constellations at cost. And if you have those things, then your ability to provide a service from space is uniquely advantage compared to anybody else who doesn't have those things. So right now I would say that we're really focused on building that capability, and you'll see space systems continue to grow and scale. Neutron is a really, really key part of this puzzle. I mean, we need multi-ton launch to deploy, significant constellations. So Neutron is probably, you know, one of the most critical and key elements to that future.

Jason Gursky

Analyst

Right, okay. So from a timing perspective, that's helpful. And then on this point though, government versus commercial customers, where do you think you're going to be spending your time on the services side?

Peter Beck

Analyst

A bit of both. So we generally like sort of a 50%-50% mix across the business and you can see that pretty consistent across launch and space systems. But you know there's huge opportunities on both sides of the ledger there. You know especially as the US government moves away from kind of singular large assets into orbit into distributed networks and low-earth orbit. So there's opportunity on both sides of the scale.

Jason Gursky

Analyst

Okay and then, can you just give us a revised view maybe on when you would expect to start signing up customers for Neutron? Is your thinking changed at all on when we start booking some?

Peter Beck

Analyst

Not really. I mean, if you bring a rocket that doesn't exist and you start selling contracts against it, they're always discounted contracts. And as I think I've said before, this is exactly what we did with Electron and it took us years to flush those out. So of all the things I worry about at night, demand is just not one of them. And I'd much rather bring a vehicle to the market and prove that it works and provide a capability to kind of unblock the kind of demand and monopoly than kind of preemptively sign a whole bunch of contracts that I think we'd all regret later on.

Jason Gursky

Analyst

Right. Okay, I've got one clarification and then one just for Adam. On the clarification, so the point you're trying to make here on Electron and the cadence of the schedule and the cashflow profile on the RevRec here is that you guys could have done all of these launches this year from a manufacturing perspective. You're getting the cash. There have been -- and this is the part that I really want to confirm, there haven't been any cancellations. And so it's really just a question of when these things go, not if. Is that the point you're all trying to make here, just so that we all kind of understand all the moving pieces on the financial statements is the point you were trying to clarify?

Peter Beck

Analyst

That's 100% correct, Jason. Yep. No, we're collecting the cash on those, you know, as the rocket comes down the production line and it's milestones are met or time is met. It's just we don't get to recognize the revenue until we have intentional ignition.

Jason Gursky

Analyst

Yeah okay got it that's good. And then Adam one for you any updated thoughts on when we get to cash flow breakeven on a sustainable basis?

Adam Spice

Analyst

Yeah, no, I think it still looks very much like it had before when or long really where we can't get to cash flow positivity on any sustained basis until we get the first Neutron off the pad. And so I've kind of been kind of pointing people towards two quarters after the first Neutron launch is where I think we kind of turn that corner on a more permanent basis, given where the rest of the business is growing, kind of what the P&L starts to look like once you've got that first R&D test launch off and that you've got most of that infrastructure put in place to scale Neutrons, which I think we will have by. I would say, the middle of next year. Again, middle of next year kind of represents kind of a minimum viable product and minimum viable infrastructure in this case. So there will be continued investment, but at a very, very different level. So I think he has -- my kind of guideposts are roughly two quarters after the first Neutron launch.

Jason Gursky

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks. I'll pass the line.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Cai von Rumohr

Analyst · TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Yes, thank you so much for taking the question. So, you know, if you do four to seven launches in the fourth quarter, you'll do 15 to 18 for the year with an initial manifest of 22. So you're slipping 20% to 30%. And it looks like quite a big slip in the third quarter. Can you give -- is there any common reason, I mean these are all customer slips and was it the satellites aren't ready or you know is there any common thread you can describe?

Peter Beck

Analyst · TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Yeah, hey Cai, yeah -- no, it's 100% customer readiness and it's kind of the nature of the business. You know, a customer will request a launch date. Their spacecraft is generally not complete when they're requesting their launch date. It'll go through various tests and sometimes there's rework or, customers have other things that they're trying to line up. So yep that's 100% of the reason.

Cai von Rumohr

Analyst · TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

How do you think about your pricing because if you get 90% three months before, first of all is that three months before the scheduled launch when you initially signed the contract? And then if you have to go three months, but they're slipping by 2 months, which looks like what's been happening, you're still collecting that last 10%. So any thoughts about they have the flexibility, but if they slip, you get a penalty for slipping, because obviously it has to cost you more money.

Peter Beck

Analyst · TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Yeah, I mean, I would say that that is one of the reasons though -- why we can charge a premium for the service. That's kind of baked into the premium for the service. And there are -- we do have some penalties in the contracts where kind of certainly if egregious things happen. But also we have customers that 72% reoccurring customers. So, if a customer has an issue with a spacecraft, they're already upset. The last thing they want to do is be [slapped] (ph) with a penalty. And if you have a long-standing relationship with the customer, that's certainly not ideal either. And I guess that's what we're trying to provide a little bit of color today is that is kind of the business model of a bespoke service like this. And while it's super frustrating for us, this is the service that we provide. And the good news is that as the rocket is coming down the production line, we're collecting the cash and, the rocket is essentially funded as it's coming through the facility but as to you know when the customer ultimately turns up and is ready to fly, it's just simply out of our control.

Cai von Rumohr

Analyst · TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Terrific. Thank you very much.

Adam Spice

Analyst · TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Thanks, Cai.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andre Madrid with BTIG. Please go ahead.

Andre Madrid

Analyst · BTIG. Please go ahead.

Adam, Peter, thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to ask for a status update on Solero. I know it is been kind of what's been dragging down the broader space systems portfolio, and we are not yet at that 30% gross margin point. Just some color as to what's going on there, when we might be able to see that.

Adam Spice

Analyst · BTIG. Please go ahead.

Yeah, I can jump and take that one Pete. So the Solero business actually, so yeah, you're correct, Andre, that we've been kind of been a little bit hamstrung by a legacy contract that was in place prior to us acquiring the business and we're still working our way through that. I mean, we're we – there is still a little I would say not little there's still a bit of the backlog that's representative of that. But it's becoming less and less in the mix. And so if you, what we look at is, if we step back and say, you know, what's new business being signed up at? Is that being signed up at the target model or less or more? And we can say -- on average now, been kind of getting to a point where that 30 point margin target has really come into focus. So the business that we're signing up now, that those margins are very, very -- I would say much more assured to be at that target than they ever were before. I would say that -- you've probably seen the CHIPS and other state and local incentives that we've received to support that business and that's going to do nothing but help improve those margins even probably beyond that target because of the fact that we're really replacing an aging reactor fleet of these in our solar fab. So I think everything is pointing in the right direction. I think we've made a lot of progress. I think it's just taking a matter of time to get that old contract flushed out through the mix, and it's happening. And what we are finding with that business is kind of meeting all the strategic objectives that we'd set out when we acquired it, which was to provide that kind of much more higher degree of control over kind of delivering programs at cost and performance because solar is such an important piece of the overall cost of a spacecraft that we really thought it was strategic to bring it in. And it's providing us with confidence not only that we can kind of deliver programs at a certain margin, but it also just confirms the fact that we can actually get the capacity that sometimes is very difficult to get unless you plan very, very far in advance. So all the different strategic angles are coming into focus, and I think the gross margin one is also too. It's just going to take a little bit longer. We said our goal was to get there by within two years of closing the deal, which would have put that back in Q1 of 2024, so earlier this year. So I'd say it's probably been delayed by a few quarters, but I would say not materially, and certainly the longer term kind of indicators all appear very positive for that.

Andre Madrid

Analyst · BTIG. Please go ahead.

That's helpful, thank you. And then maybe just general color on PSC and Sinclair and ASI and some of the other businesses in the Space Systems Group.

Adam Spice

Analyst · BTIG. Please go ahead.

Yeah, I would say that, again, Pete talked about it earlier in his prepared remarks about our M&A strategy, and I would say that our M&A strategy has worked out very, very well. I think when you look at the components and subsystems parts of the portfolio, that's growing almost exactly kind of on our annual CAGR targets that we'd set out and communicated to folks previously. So you want to think about that components and subsystems business with delivering roughly a 20% kind of CAGR. That's always what we've kind of targeted, hopefully we'd get to, and that's really what that business has been delivering and continues to do so.

Andre Madrid

Analyst · BTIG. Please go ahead.

Superb. Well, thank you, Adam.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Suji Desilva with ROTH Capital. Please go ahead.

Suji Desilva

Analyst · ROTH Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi, Peter. Adam, congratulations on the progress here. On Neutron, you know, good to see the hot fire test success. I'm just wondering, as I look ahead to the first launch a year from now. I know it's not customer payload dependent. At least I don't believe it is your first launch. It's largely in Rocket Lab's hands. I just want to know if there's any non-Rocket Lab dependencies, risks that might occur that would otherwise prevent you from having the launch when you're ready to go? Things like regulatory pad [right] (ph) is just want to envision those as we get closer to that launch a year from now.

Peter Beck

Analyst · ROTH Capital. Please go ahead.

Yeah, hey, Suji, great question. So we've definitely front-footed a lot of that. I mean I think a lot of us saw Electron sit on the pad at Wallops for a long time waiting AFTS certification and things like that. So we certainly have all those kinds of things well in control and a lot of that ground work was done a long time ago, especially with some of the licensing around the launch pad at wallops and things like that so no -- we think we've got that in hand and certainly there's nothing that's out of bed at the moment. Suffice to say though, some of these regulatory timelines can drag on, but we have a lot of extended experience and relationships with the regulators, so it's not untrodden ground for us.

Suji Desilva

Analyst · ROTH Capital. Please go ahead.

Okay. Yeah, I guess the second go around is easier. And then also, you mentioned ultra-high accuracy launch capability in the press release. I'm just wondering is that, would you consider a niche market opportunity or incrementally is that a meaningful opportunity versus the traditional launches where you can get to that meter I believe?

Peter Beck

Analyst · ROTH Capital. Please go ahead.

Yeah, so initially we didn't think it would be, given that the industry standard is sort of 15 kilometers, it wouldn't be that important to folks, but as we started to really accurately deploy, I guess it opened the aperture for missions that weren't possible before. A good example of that was the mission we did just recently for a Japanese customer where they rendezvoused with a spin upper stage and they're able to rendezvous directly off the rocket. So normally you would have required a big ball of Delta V to kind of come off the rocket and clean the orbit up. So I guess we've created a capability there that has really opened the aperture for a lot of other folks to do much more interesting things, including the DoD, and you can see we even have a DoD rendezvous mission now. So it's definitely an emerging space. There's a lot more desire to do kind of these proximity operations and rendezvous operations. And once again, it's all just muscle building for future on Neutron as well. If we ever need to dock with anything in the future, We have all of that capability now created.

Suji Desilva

Analyst · ROTH Capital. Please go ahead.

Great. thanks, Peter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Andres Sheppard with Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.

Andres Sheppard

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking our questions, and congrats on the quarter. A lot of our questions have been asked, so I was wondering if you could touch on something from the space systems. I wonder if you guys have any updates on that $515 million SDA award. I know you touched on it earlier, so I was wondering how you expect revenue to ramp in the second half of 2025 or if you could walk us through again like how the financial impact of this contract is.

Adam Spice

Analyst

Yeah, I'll take that. So we're at the very, very, very beginning of that program execution. We've recognized, I think it is like maybe single digit millions, maybe to maybe as high as $10 million of revenue under that contract under the EAC methodology that gets applied under the accounting guidance. So I would say that -- that's going to continue to ramp. We've got each quarter going forward should be incrementally kind of constructive to driving revenue growth. And so I think you would expect that program to, I'd say, probably hit its maximum revenue contribution probably not for another, I would say, probably six or eight quarters is probably the profile you have to think about how that growth, then it starts to kind of flatten out and then decline. And of course, it's all about kind of backfilling with the next contract or the other growth vector to kind of make sure you don't hit an air pocket. But right now we're in the very early, early stages. We still have significant revenue recognition off of the MDA Globalstar contract. And then we're, again, just really just kind of not even scratch the surface of revenue contribution from the SDA program of $515 million.

Andres Sheppard

Analyst

Gotcha. Appreciate the color. And I guess switching gears a little bit, I know this was asked earlier, so I was wondering maybe what's the reasonable number of potential launches that you could expect for this year? Maybe how confident are you at hitting 20 potentially as I know you were aiming for 22 earlier. There's some shifts to the right. Just wanted to see if you could point us in the right direction there. Thank you.

Peter Beck

Analyst

Yeah, again, we tried to be a bit more nuanced about this because again, we always end up getting a bit surprised. We give people the best estimates that we have based on our knowledge of where they are in their program life and so forth. And it's very difficult to handicap where launch is going to actually occur. But right now it's looking like, if you look at the bottle for Q3, we would have we think another opportunity for perhaps as many as four in Q4 to as many as seven. So that kind of gives you a range of somewhere between 15 and 18 launches for the year. There's really no upside beyond, you know, 18 is kind of, again really I wouldn't -- I would advise nobody to kind of put that into their model at this point, because that's a stretch that's doable, but it's not a layup. And so, if you think about like the Delta between kind of the 22 and the 18. There is no customer readiness to support a launch beyond 18 for this year. So that's really kind of where things cap out.

Adam Spice

Analyst

And again, that's if everything goes really perfectly and things rarely if ever do.

Andres Sheppard

Analyst

Gotcha. Appreciate the caller. Thanks for taking our questions. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

Our final question will come from the line of Anthony Valentini with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Anthony Valentini

Analyst

Hey Guys, you got Anthony on for Noah tonight. Thanks for taking my question. I'm curious if you guys anticipate that you'll have to go back to the capital markets in order to fund some of these grander aspirations that you have.

Peter Beck

Analyst

Well, I think it really depends. I think what we have right now, we're in an enviable position of the amount of cash and liquidity that we have to fund the business. I think that can, again, fund some of our M&A ambitions. I think that it really is going to depend on kind of the size, the opportunity that comes into focus. I think we're all, I think that right now we don't really say, hey, look, you know, let's not consider things that -- that are outside of our current ability to finance because I think, you know, for the right opportunity, the capital markets, are available, you know, again, but it has to be for the right opportunity. But right now we don't see anything that would cause us to go back to capital markets.

Anthony Valentini

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And then in terms of the commentary, it sounds like really Neutron is the enabler to you guys being able to do some of these things. Should we be thinking about that because of the fact that that'll be driving more cash flow that you can then, you know, redeploy elsewhere or more so like the actual rails to getting to space?

Peter Beck

Analyst

I would say both, Anthony, for sure.

Anthony Valentini

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. Thanks so much, guys.

Peter Beck

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And that will conclude our question-and-answer session I'll hand the call back to Peter Beck for any closing remarks.

Peter Beck

Analyst

Great thanks very much so before we close out today I just wanted to draw your attention to some upcoming conferences we'll be attending. We look forward to sharing more exciting news and updates with you there. So that wraps up today's call. Once again, thank you very much and we look forward to speaking with you again about the exciting progress that Rocket Lab has been making next quarter. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

That will conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.