David H. Hannah
Analyst · Bank of America
I wish we could, Timna. I will tell you this that the MSCI numbers are heavily influenced by carbon flat-roll. And as you know, as a percentage of our total business, carbon flat-roll is not that big. So, and of course, the carbon flat-roll tons and volumes are being positively impacted by the auto industry more than probably anything else. So we do look at that. We get into the byproduct numbers and analyze it. We sometimes get puzzled. One year ago, we were puzzled that our volumes were up so far above what was being reported by the industry. And this year, it seems to be the opposite. So we're still trying to figure that out, but we do know that the carbon flat-roll has a pretty big impact on it. Also, aluminum common alloy flat-roll has a pretty big impact on the aluminum numbers. And -- so that's a product where, I mean, certainly, we sell a fair amount of common alloy aluminum flat-roll, but our mix is more heavily weighted on heat treat. And so that is certainly something. And then when you look at where we are on a year-to-date basis, I think the MSCI is up 4.2% for -- that includes stainless and carbon products. And we are at 6.5% same-store. So we still think we're gaining some market share, and as Karla mentioned, we could ramp -- run up the tons, ad as Gregg mentioned, when we do that, expenses run up and usually, we're not in as good a place as we are now or we would be. So we do look at some of the components of the carbon steel on a year-to-date basis. As I mentioned, we're up 6.5% in our -- in just our carbon products. And then MSCI, excluding stainless, is up 4.0%, I believe and 4.2%, including stainless. When we look at flat-roll, and I'll give these to you, usually we don't put these out, but our flat-roll tons -- this is 6 months this year, we're up 7.4%. MSCI reported numbers were 4.8%. Carbon bars, we're up 7.4%, MSCI was up 1%. Carbon structurals, we're up 6.2%, MSCI up 0.4%. Plate, up 8% for us, 4.3% on the industry year-to-date. And pipe and tube, we're up 2.9% compared to the reported numbers at 2.4%. So we do have a look at that. It's important to us to see what it is. But very honestly, sometimes we don't know what drives some of the prices, and we've been surprised on the downside, and we've been surprised on the upside. We do know, as I mentioned earlier, that the flat-roll and both aluminum and -- common alloy aluminum and in carbon can make a big difference.