Eido Gal
Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.
I'm very confident. And I think the numbers are clear, right? I think once you look at the numbers, it's easy to understand. And we've been communicating them for a while. Again, PSD2, we see no additional impact in 2023, and we see a close to zero chance of this happening in other geographies. Really, when you think about the value of PSD2 in our world, it's minimal. Already today, consumers are not impacted by fraud, right? If a consumer receives a chargeback, they call their bank, they're refunded the money. When you think about merchants who bear the liability -- in fact, merchants today can turn on strong customer authentication, really secure. On math, they choose not to do it because it's a terrible experience. It's bad friction. It causes a conversion impact drop-off. So in fact, what merchants do proactively is they use a frictionless experience like Riskified, right? That's much better than 3D Secure. And when you think about the entire card issuing banks, they obviously hate something like PSD2 because suddenly they're liable. So really, we think there's no value. There's no consumer impact. And when you think of even passing a law like this in the U.S., probably like a congressional level act. So we feel very, very confident that it's not happening. We see no indication that it's happening elsewhere in the world. So we view this as a onetime reset, right? And that's kind of in charge of two-thirds of the delta between our framework -- between our guidance and that kind of 25% to 30% growth that you mentioned. With respect to the muted eCommerce volumes, which is another one-third of the delta, I mean, I think most people would agree that this is a tough comp for the next few quarters and everyone anticipates cycling out and returning to normalized eCommerce growth. So really just that is leading us to have full conviction that we'll return to our framework growth. And just thinking about the behavior, throughout this year, we started Q1 stronger than anticipated. We think that there is going to be a sequential -- a year-over-year growth rate decline as we head into before we start ramping up in the back half of the year.