Earnings Labs

Rentokil Initial plc (RTO)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 23, 2025

$33.43

-0.19%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.25%

1 Week

-7.35%

1 Month

-10.18%

vs S&P

-9.72%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Rentokil Q3 Trading Update Call. My name is Rita, and I will be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions]. I will now hand you over to your host, Andy Ransom, Chief Executive Officer at Rentokil, to begin. So, please go ahead, Andy.

Andrew Ransom

Analyst

Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. And before we begin, as always, can I just draw your attention to the usual cautionary statement contained in our trading update this morning as it also applies to this call. I'm going to start off with some brief opening remarks, and then Paul and I will be pleased to take any questions. We're encouraged by our performance in the third quarter as the overall positive trends that we described at our interim results have continued into the second half of the year and leave us on track to deliver our 2025 results in line with market expectations. For the 3 months to the 30th of September, group revenue was $1.8 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 4.6%. Organic revenue grew 3.4%, with an improvement in North America to 3.4%, and organic growth across our international businesses of 3.3%. Looking at our performance in North America in more detail. Pest Control Services organic growth was 1.8%, which compares favorably to the 0.3% seen in the second quarter. North America Business Services organic revenue growth was particularly strong in the third quarter, up 11.9%. Back in March, we discussed how we were evolving our North America strategy to drive enhanced lead generation and a lower cost per lead. This was a comprehensive overhaul of how we were growing the business, informed by our learnings in 2024. And this revised strategy included raising the bar on improving colleague retention and driving up customer retention, enhancing our digital marketing to realize the benefits from better organic lead generation and higher quality, lower cost paid for leads, and evolved satellite branch strategy to improve customer proximity and local search visibility, and moving our sales operating model back under the branch managers to drive more accountability and visibility of…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First question we have comes from Annelies Vermeulen with Morgan Stanley.

Annelies Vermeulen

Analyst

I have 3 questions, please. So firstly, Andy, you mentioned net gain in contracting portfolio, improvement in performance in Q3. Could you talk a little bit about jobbing versus contracting growth? Did you see growth in both elements in the quarter? Or was one stronger than the other? And then secondly, sort of related, if you could comment on the performance of resi versus commercial versus termites. Again, was there anything or any one area that drove more of an improvement in the quarter relative to another? And then lastly, just putting it all together, you've spoken about improved lead flow, improved customer retention, the customer saves program, et cetera. So when we think about this improvement in the growth and the step-up versus Q2, could you talk a little bit about your sense of how much of the improvement in the growth is both in new customers and how much of it is the improvement you think in customer saves and customer retention?

Andrew Ransom

Analyst

Thanks, Annelies. We can probably do an hour just attempting to answer that question, which I promise I won't. But there's a lot in there. I'll try and give you a little bit of color. Look, as you correctly identified, getting the business into positive, healthy, consistent net gain in the portfolio is what we need to see in the business to get the sorts of levels of organic growth that this business is capable of. So it was really pleasing to see that improvement in net gain. And just to remind colleagues on the line, the business -- most of the questions I'm sure will be about North America, but the business in the U.S. is approximately 75% of the revenues under contract and 25% is jobbing. And so as I said at the half year, I'm not overly concerned about the jobbing side of the business. We can always produce jobs in the business. What we have to do is to get that healthy positive net gain back into the business, and we have to get volume growth back into the business. Without giving you specific data, jobbing was pretty good in the third quarter. As I said, don't worry too much about jobbing. But we did see -- so jobbing was above the average rate of growth that we've shown you there. But the net gain was the best we've had in the business for a little while, and it was encouraging to see that. What we now need to see is can we continue net gain in the portfolio into the fourth quarter and into the first quarter? Or does it revert to net loss. So that's the key thing that I'm looking for in the business. But the answer is we saw good jobbing, but…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Will Kirkness with Bernstein Societe Generale Group.

William Kirkness

Analyst · Bernstein Societe Generale Group.

I've got 2 questions, please. Firstly, on pricing and your initiatives there. What's the balance between lowering price to take share? And then any price reductions you're having to put in because of the customer saves initiative versus pushing through price increases? And then secondly, I know it's just a trading statement, but I wondered if you could talk about progress on levers to improve free cash flow.

Andrew Ransom

Analyst · Bernstein Societe Generale Group.

Thanks, Will. I'll hand those both to Paul, I think.

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Analyst · Bernstein Societe Generale Group.

Thanks, Andy, and thanks, Will. So on pricing, really what we're seeing here, and we talk about pricing being a little better than inflation is better pricing strategy. We have a new pricing lead in North America, and we are using the data that we have in the business better to identify where opportunities are. This isn't just a vanilla approach that you ask everybody to pay a little more. It's more sophisticated where there are pockets of opportunities where we can see different types of customers, different market types, and then deploying different pricing strategies against different customers. So it's sophisticated. There is more to go with it. We will continue to roll that out. And we're pleased with the performance in these states at the moment. And in terms of price promotion and trying to win volume on the back of reduced pricing, you will always have a component of that business, but that's not what has been driving the percentage there. In terms of the levers to drive free cash flow, you've heard me speak before about how important I think this is in the business. And there's an opportunity in working capital to drive that. There's also an opportunity in our capital expenditure and to make sure that we are getting the best returns on capital from what's being deployed. So we're pulling all those levers. I quoted the net debt number at the end of the period, and we'll come back obviously at the full year and I'll talk about the cash flow in more detail. We're making progress, and the machine is definitely moving. So look forward to talking more about that in March with the full year results.

Operator

Operator

We now have Suhasini Varanasi with Goldman Sachs on the line.

Suhasini Varanasi

Analyst

I have 3, please. Clearly, you have seen a very good improvement in growth. Can you maybe discuss the expectations into the next quarter? I appreciate that you have a potential drag of 60 bps from the mosquito business. But given the underlying improvement that you saw in the third quarter, is there any reason to believe that the growth will not be at least as good as third quarter in the next one? And the second one is on 2026. It's just not on financials, but given the success that you have seen on door-to-door, satellite branches, et cetera, can you maybe share some initial thoughts on how you're thinking about investments going into '26 and the plans for funding around that? And the third one, you previously stated your margin target for more than 20% beyond 2026. Can you maybe just remind us about the building blocks that will get you there, starting with the top line?

Andrew Ransom

Analyst

Thanks, Suhasini. I'll take the first two and then hand over to Paul for the third one. And Paul, when we get to -- Paul and I are not in the same place. You are a little bit -- sound quality wasn't great. So I don't know whether you can get a bit closer to the mic or there's nothing we can do, but we will press on. In terms of your first question, growth in the fourth quarter, I mean, I've discovered, to my pain, that making forecast predictions about organic growth in the business is probably not a good use of my time or yours. It's been difficult for us to be precise with this in recent quarters. I'm not going to do that. I'll make a few sort of general observations. Are we pleased with what we're seeing on lead flow and the improved way that we're going about getting both organic search and also the new approach to pay? Yes, we are. We said that at the half year. We were asked at the half year, are you sure it's not just the weather that you're seeing? Are you sure it's actually having an impact? And we said, look, I can't rule out that weather is part of it, but it is having an impact. We are doing things, we are changing things, and we are seeing positive results from those things. And I expect that to continue. What does that translate to when we're in the winter, in the off-season, a little bit more challenging to say. You've picked up on the 60 bps drag coming from the mosquito work relating to last year's mega hurricane season. So that is a factor. But look, as I said in answer to Annelies' question, what we are…

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Analyst

Thanks, Andy. And I'll try and speak up and hopefully, you can hear me a little more clearly. So it's the same story, as I talked about at the prelims back in March and the interims in August. But as we look at the business and we look at what we had historically talked about as our integration savings, we will take the 2024 cost base, and after 2026, we will have been able to have taken out $100 million of cost from that cost base. There will, of course, be inflation in the cost base, but that should give everybody a good indicator of where we think the numbers will be on the cost side for 2027. And then the margin piece, getting to 20%, that is our intention. Obviously, it does require growth in the business through the balance of this year and into next year and in 2027. But that is what we're targeting for. We think targets like that is important, and we can see a clear line of sight to it. Of course, nothing is ever done until it's done, but that is what we are shooting to.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Oliver Davies with Rothschild & Co.

Oliver Davies

Analyst · Rothschild & Co.

Just one for me. I guess, would you be able to give us an update on the Terminix integration, how the commercial branches integration has gone this year, and then the plan for 2026 in terms of residential branches and also the changes to technician pay plans?

Andrew Ransom

Analyst · Rothschild & Co.

Thanks, Oliver. Yes, it's a fair question. We haven't said an awful lot. It's a Q3 trading update, so we can't cover everything in detail. How would I describe it? Look, I'm pleased with where we are. We've restarted commercial, as we said we would. We're focusing on the easier end of the spectrum. So we're focusing on commercial-only branches, and we're focusing on those that need to go through a Pest Pack to Pest Pack conversion. So branches that are already on a version of the end design software Pest Pack. So easier to do. We've got those underway. They've started well. No issues to report. So happy with that, and we'll continue with that into next year. If we look back at the integrations done prior to the pause that we put in at the beginning of the year, what we saw was excellent delivery of the cost savings and the margin improvement, but we saw a less than satisfactory performance in lead flow and in customer retention. So we put together a very detailed action plan to say, okay, what are the things that we need to do differently to make sure that future integrations have both the benefit of the cost out, but also we don't see the impact on lead flow. And as you recall, the satellite strategy was in part in response to that issue, but also on customer retention. So we're still working through that plan. Some of that goes into systems and system redesign. Some of it goes into process, some of it goes into change management. So we're making, I would say, steady progress on the further integration, but this is a fence that we're not going to rush, and we don't need to rush. It's one that we've got to…

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from James Rose with Barclays.

James Rosenthal

Analyst · Barclays.

I've just got one, please. It's on reinvestments, and I appreciate your high-level thoughts there. When would it make sense to increase spend in marketing and sales, for example? And related to that, I mean, the 20% margin target you've got, I assume that assumes turn to volume growth at some point. Is that deliverable, do you think, within the same envelope of marketing spend as it is now? Or does it assume some expansion and some reinvestment over time?

Andrew Ransom

Analyst · Barclays.

Thanks, James. I mean I'll take that. And Paul, if you violently disagree with my answer or you've got a better one, pile in after me. Look, I think it's an interesting question. Marketing, in particular -- I mean sales and marketing, but marketing in particular, is always a challenge to work out. And I think Paul famously quoted the quote that with marketing spend, half of it is wasted. The problem is you never know which half. And marketing spend is notoriously difficult to work out. Are you getting the returns on investment that you demand? And we're getting much, much better at that. We're getting much better insight on where we're spending our money and what returns we're getting. We're getting better at data. And Paul has mentioned, we've hired a data specialist. So in terms of can we see where the dollars are going? Can we see what we're getting for the dollars? Can we see what sorts of returns we're getting from different channels, not just digital, but other channels, we are getting better, and that's really, really good. Therefore, implicit in that is if you get to the point that you are rock solid confident that an additional dollar above your plan invested in a particular channel or a particular approach is going to give you a really good return. And you can debate, is it going to give you jobs? Or is it going to give you contracts? Is it going to give you an in-year return? Or is it going to give you a return over the lifetime of the contracts. But if you can see that additional dollar, then you've got choices to make. Would you invest more additional dollars to get more additional growth. And to be fair, look, we haven't…

Operator

Operator

We now have Nicole Manion with UBS on the line.

Nicole Manion

Analyst

Two questions from me, please. They are follow-ups on some of the previous ones. So sorry if there's some familiar ground. Firstly, on the pay and retention side, just based on your previous answer, Andy, is it fair to say that within the overall colleague retention number for North America, technician retention is also still going up? And are you still in the pilot or discussion phase for pay for most technicians? Or are there some cases where you've already made changes, I guess, with some of the new joiners, perhaps their pay structure maybe reflects more of what it is you're intending to move towards for everyone? Or is that not the case? And then secondly, I appreciate you've touched quite a bit on satellite branches. Maybe just one more specific question there. You've got obviously a decent sample size now from the past 9 months or so. Can you comment on how you think they're working, maybe especially those that have been live for longer and just essentially whether you think they're meeting what your initial expectations of what you thought they could do were?

Andrew Ransom

Analyst

Thanks, Nicole. Yes, absolutely. On the first one on colleague retention, yes, we continue to see improvement in colleague retention in North America, in the United States Pest Control, and particularly in the technician side. And I was looking at the data yesterday. I don't know whether I should be celebrating this or not, but North America has now got off the bottom run in our internal ladder of colleague retention. And sorry to say, but the Pacific region is on the bottom. Pacific hasn't got worse. North America has got better. So it's no longer worst in group, and I've been sort of rubbing their noses in it for some time that they're bottom of the pile. They're no longer bottom of the pile. So that is really, really encouraging. And I've said this many, many times. If you've got a business like ours and people are not turning up to work, either because they're just not turning up to work or you've got horrible churn in the sales force or in the service force, it's a very difficult business to run. This is a necessary but not sufficient condition for growth and success. So I couldn't be happier that the retention rates have improved 11 quarters in a row. And almost, we're not at the group average yet in the States, but we're not so far off it. So yes, it is coming through tax as well. It's a very good point actually because to be honest, we haven't rolled out the universal pay plans either on sales or service yet. I can't remember the precise figure, Nicole. I think it's about 10% of the total North America team is on the new plan. It's something like that. So it's not the new pay that is driving up…

Operator

Operator

The next question on the phone line comes from Allen Wells of Jefferies.

Allen Wells

Analyst

Andy, just 2 quick ones from me. Apologies if I missed this in the comments earlier, but could you just maybe comment a little bit about the shape of both the North American organic growth and the lead generation as you move through the quarter? I guess I'm kind of looking for like exit rates for Q3. You helpfully gave some lead generation numbers, which I think were up 6 and a bit percent in June. So just any comments on how that trend has carried on sequentially through the quarter? And then the second question, do we need to be mindful of anything on the higher growth in business services in U.S. Pest, which is obviously slightly lower margin. and the nonrepeat of the Vector Control, which again, I'm not sure if that's also slightly higher margin. Anything we just need to be mindful of on the second half margins in North America from the impact from that? Or is it too small and won't really be noticeable?

Andrew Ransom

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Allen. Yes, look, you'll understand we're not going to be drawn into a sort of month-by-month blow by blow. We showed the progression in the interims really for one main reason, it was showing -- it wasn't so much the 6.6% improvement in June, although that was clearly a high point note that everyone picked up on, obviously. What the real importance of that was to show that we were moving from a dark place of negative year-on-year lead flow all the way through the first quarter, and it improved and it improved and it improved. And we finally broke through the line, if you like, in June into positive territory. So it wasn't so much focused on the 6.6%. It was focused on the fact that we've moved out of negative into positive territory. We were positive in each month throughout the third quarter. I'm not going to give you a real commentary. August wasn't as good as September. August had 1 fewer trading day. September had one more trading day, pick the bones out of that. We were pleased -- let me just put it that way, we were pleased with the search performance in each month across the month. And of course, the thing that you've got to get also, which is difficult if you're not seeing the data. Paul and I see the data every single day without exception. We see the daily data on lead flow across the United States business. Because to a degree, it depends, well, how much money did you spend in August of last year or September of last year on paid search? And what was the weather like on August 15 last year, why search volume up 10%, and on the 12th, it's down 3%. So it's very,…

Operator

Operator

Our final question from the phone lines comes from Carl Raynsford with Berenberg.

Carl Raynsford

Analyst

Just 2 clarification questions from me, please. Firstly, apologies if this is basic, but I just wanted to understand your commentary around being a little better. And so first is the improvement, was that across North America? Or were you just referring to the contracted portfolio? And second, in my head, net gain suggests that you've won more than you've lost basically, which suggests positive volume, but as you say, the math suggests negative volume. So I'm probably misunderstanding something there. So it would be helpful if you were able to clarify that calculation, if you could please. And the second question -- I'm sorry, this is the second question. I'll do both at once, if that's okay. But just a clarification on the North American growth. You note jobbing was above 1.8% reported, so that implies contracts had to be below that. But you also say there's been sequential growth. So would you be able to clarify the Q1 and Q2 numbers for contracted growth, so that I can contextualize that comment, please? From what I'm aware of, you only gave sort of minus 0.2% for H1. Any information on both of that would be very helpful.

Andrew Ransom

Analyst

Sure, Carl. I'll try and I'll probably fail to answer your Q1, Q2 question, just as a spoiler. Look, net gain, so let me try and break it down for you very quickly. Again, we're only talking here all the questions this morning and I get it have been about North America or United States Pest Control. Fine. That's what we're talking about. That's the kernel of what we're addressing here. Roughly 75% of the revenues, revenues are not sales, revenues come from the contract portfolio. So on January 1, we start with a book of business under contract. And if nothing else changes, that's the revenue that we will generate from that book of business during the calendar year. But things do change. So to get net gain or net loss, there are basically 3 things that happen in your portfolio. Number one is customer retention. So if you keep more customers throughout the year by value as opposed to by volume. But if you keep more customers by value than you did in the prior year, you're going to improve the value of the contract base by that. So going from 80% to close to 81% retention, but with an ambition over the next few years to get to 85% is one of the ways in which we drive up the revenue coming from the portfolio. So the first thing you can do to improve your net gain, your contract portfolio, the revenue that's under contract is to improve your customer retention. The second thing you can do is to give price increases, which we do on an annual basis, typically on the anniversary of the contract, to those customers under contract. So those are 2 pluses, if you like. If you can get retention up, that's a…

Carl Raynsford

Analyst

Just the other on the North American -- I know you said you can't answer Q1, Q2. So was the comment you're making really against the H1 number, the contracted side?

Andrew Ransom

Analyst

Yes. Because without going quarter-by-quarter and deep into the portfolio and so on. And I don't have the numbers in my head, I'm honest. But we saw improvement in net gain, and the second quarter was better than the first. The third quarter was better than the second and -- sorry, go on.

Carl Raynsford

Analyst

I'm referring to the sort of jobbing versus contracted organic growth, 1.8%. So I'm just saying you're basically implying contracted was worse at 1.8%. But you mentioned that was sort of an acceleration, the sequential growth from Q2. So that was sort of the second question just around that split really. Are you getting -- the Q2 number presumably was lower than sort of what I thought, to be honest, in that case.

Andrew Ransom

Analyst

I can. I don't know what you thought, so I can't answer that. But I probably have done as much damage to your question as I possibly can, honestly.

Carl Raynsford

Analyst

No, I'll take it offline with you. I appreciate that.

Andrew Ransom

Analyst

Did we have any questions online that we need to pick up?

Operator

Operator

We have a question from the webcast from James. Following the big increase in the legacy termite provision in the first half was in large part driven by a step-up in cost per claim, can you provide any insight into trends in cost per claim during Q3?

Andrew Ransom

Analyst

I'm going to keep that one really simple. No. We tend to do balance sheet items at the half year, and we'll pick that up with the prelims. Were there any other questions online?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Analyst

No, Andy. We're all out. We're all good online.

Operator

Operator

In that case, I would like to conclude the -- no more questions on the phone line. So I'd like to close the question-and-answer session here and hand it back to Andy for some final closing comments.

Andrew Ransom

Analyst

My final closing comments. Thank you. Thank you very much for attending today. Thank you for your questions. Thank you for your interest in the company, as always. And we look forward to hopefully making progress in the fourth quarter and updating you on that with the prelims early next year. Thanks very much, everyone.