Rusty Rush
Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead
Well, I believe given the rate environment that we’ve experienced that our customers have experienced for the last year or so, last year was the best period ever for rate increases. So anytime in any business that you in my experience whether any business since you get rate increases, it increases the opportunities for people to look at it as a good venture, as a venture to growing, as a venture to replace it, and that’s what we’ve seen along the way and continue to see because those are the folks that people sometimes lose sight of, because they are not publicly traded, right. Everybody loses sight of the 300, the 400, the 500 even a few thousand truck private fleets that are out there, but they are there. And given the robustness I think of their business over the last 1.5 year, it's creating an opportunity to replace because they had held off replacing for a while. The large public truck load carriers had continued to replace and even some of the large private ones have continued to replace through the down cycle, these folks though have now come forward over the last few quarters and replace, and there really hasn't been to your point on expansion. There really hasn’t been that much expansions is mainly this is -- there is some expansion going on in my mind right now, mixed in with folks that hadn’t replaced due to the environment where we’re in, now given the better environment we're in and also given the quality of the product, the fuel mileage of new products. I mean there are many driving factors to replace vehicles because I always tell people for me I look at it and look back. If we say the average number ramble little here for which you know me, let's say the average is 200,000 units, we only delivered 97,000 in '09, 100 in '10 these are U.S. retail numbers and '11 if I best recall was around 173 or 174 in '12 and then went to 198 and it was 180 to 196 to 188, last year was the first year we topped 200,000 in forever. So I still believe while this might be the peak year, I don’t look for the market to drop-off it dramatically 10% to 15%, next year you're still talking about the best year in eight or nine years. So, I mean 10 years since it was six so it's hard to for me to get too negative or too down in the future as I look for, because all that pent-up demand from the recessions through those years of under purchasing is still there, some of it is still there. Yes, we are easing a way at it but there is still more to go from our perspective.