Earnings Labs

Revolve Group, Inc. (RVLV)

Q3 2020 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 12, 2020

$26.38

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, my name is Chris and I'll be your conference operator today. At this I would like to welcome everyone to the Revolve's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers remarks there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Erik Randerson, Vice President of Investor Relations at REVOLVE. Thank you. You may begin.

Erik Randerson

Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us to discuss REVOLVE's third quarter 2020 results. Before we begin, I would like to mention that we have posted a presentation containing Q3 2020 financial highlights to our Investor Relations website located at investors.revolve.com. I would also like to remind you that this conference call will include forward-looking statements. These statements include our current expectations regarding the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, operations and financial results, and our outlook for net sales, product mix, gross margin, operating expenses and capital expenditures for the fourth quarter. These statements are subject to various risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements, including the risks mentioned in this afternoon's press release as well as other risks and uncertainties disclosed under the caption Risk Factors and elsewhere in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including, without limitation, our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019 and subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q all of which can be found on our website at investors.revolve.com. We undertake no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements or information except as required by law. During our call today, we will also reference certain non-GAAP financial information, including Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. We use non-GAAP measures in some of our financial discussions, as we believe they more accurately represent the true operational performance and underlying results of our business. The presentation of this non-GAAP financial information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for or superior to, the financial information prepared and presented in accordance with GAAP, and our non-GAAP measures may be different from non-GAAP measures used by other companies. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP measures, as well as the description, limitations and rationale for using each measure, can be found in this afternoon's press release and in our SEC filings. Joining me on the call today are our Co-Founders and Co-CEOs, Mike Karanikolas and Michael Mente, as well as Jesse Timmermans, our CFO. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for your questions. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.

Mike Karanikolas

Analyst

Thanks, Erik. Good afternoon everyone, and thanks for joining us today. Before we get into the details of the quarter, I'll provide some higher-level thoughts on our longer-term vision. We founded REVOLVE 17 years ago with the goal of becoming the fashion destination for the next generation consumer. From the beginning, our focus was on the customer experience, the utilization of data to drive decisions, and the creation of an authentic connection with our customer through our merchandise offering and marketing message. These areas of focus are still at the core of what we do today and what differentiates us, and what we believe will continue to drive growth into the future. As a brand known for the discovery of on trend merchandise centered around aspirational experiences and lifestyle content including social gatherings, travel and special occasions. The current environment impacted by COVID has resulted in revenue pressure and what we believe is a temporary deviation from our historical growth pattern. Despite these pressures, we have been able to leverage the investments in our platform over time to produce notable increases in margin and profitability that we are excited to share with you today. We believe the revenue pressures are temporary as people will eventually socialize in person again and travel will return. Until then, we'll continue to invest in our brand and platform to set ourselves up to take advantage of what we believe; post-COVID will be a strong rebound as a result of prolonged pent up demand. With that longer-term framework as a backdrop, there are three key financial highlights of our third quarter that I want to call out. First, we delivered record EPS of $0.27 per share, record net income of $19 million and record adjusted EBITDA of $24 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew 66% year-over-year and…

Michael Mente

Analyst

Thanks, Mike, and hello everyone. The strength of our business, the power of our brand, and most importantly, the incredible execution of our team enabled us to deliver our most profitable quarter ever, even surpassing our record profitability from last quarter. I'm truly proud of how much our team has accomplished during this extremely challenging period. This phenomenal execution has further strengthened our financial profile and positions us well to capitalize on the long-term opportunity ahead. To expand on Mike's opening remarks, we are focused on building the fashion destination for the next generation consumer. Our customer comes to us for discovery and looks to us for inspiration. Even during this unique and challenging time, these shopping behaviors remain. We continue to provide a broad, yet curated assortment of the most on trend merchandise that provides her with the ability to discover products that suit her lifestyle, whether it's travel and social occasions or most recently, a more stay at home and active lifestyle. To complement our merchandise offering, we provide her with constant inspiration through authentic and aspirational lifestyle content. Important to this authenticity is providing content that connects with her on platforms she is engaging with and speaks to what's happening in her life. The team has done a great job of expanding into emerging social platforms and providing content centered around her current lifestyle. I am excited about the progress we continue to make on the merchandising and marketing fronts and believe that despite the challenges of the last couple quarters, we will emerge much stronger and even better positioned for the long-term. Starting with our merchandise. The ongoing reality of a more stay at home lifestyle has allowed us to further deepen the relationship with our customer by highlighting our offering of incredible fashion and design,…

Jesse Timmermans

Analyst

Thanks, Michael. As our results attest, we have continued to execute well in a very difficult environment. For the second straight quarter, we achieved record net income and record adjusted EBITDA; we generated strong free cash flow that strengthened our balance sheet and we drove our highest inventory turns in several years. Now, starting with the third quarter results. Net sales decreased 2% year-over-year. As Mike mentioned, we began the third quarter with low-single digit growth in July and August that was offset by a larger single-digit decline in September. Occasion wear product categories faced the most significant headwinds since many special occasions remain on pause due to social distancing concerns, and as we worked through our markdown inventory in those categories in the second quarter. To provide some context regarding the impact of reduced markdown inventory on net sales in the third quarter, our largest category, dresses, is a good example. If year-over-year growth in markdown sales of dresses alone had remained consistent between the second quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of this year, our total net sales would have actually increased year-over-year in the third quarter. Drilling further into the top line for the third quarter. By segment, REVOLVE Segment net sales decreased 4% and FORWARD Segment net sales increased 9% year-over-year. Active customers were $1.5 million, an increase of 5% year-over-year. The trend is consistent with our commentary last quarter that we expected growth in Active Customers to further decelerate as the trailing 12-month metric captured a larger number of quarterly periods impacted by COVID as compared to the high customer growth quarters of last year. With the continued pressures on traffic and demand, we expect further deceleration in this metric until we start to cycle out of the suppressed COVID period. Orders placed were…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] our first question is from Edward Yruma with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Edward Yruma

Analyst

A couple quick ones from me, I guess first as you think inventory you talk about mobility hopefully improving at some point in the short-to-medium-term. When will you start rebuilding inventory in activation of improved sales trends and then I guess second as follow-up on the market which I think you guys indicated leading into, are there particular categories you're going to lean into just kind of - top of mind as we head into a stronger sales period, what's the direction you'll hope to take that into? Thank you.

Mike Karanikolas

Analyst

Yes, definitely, Mike here. So with regard to inventory we've already begun building up our inventory position from the lows and we think that will have beneficial impacts on the sales trends of course at the pre-time [ph] it's a very uncertain environment we think and until we get to more of a post-COVID world. And it's just not throughout the overall inventories level right. It's about those categories. So we've calculated that at the appropriate levels that we can balance our revenues goals into our profitability goals and I think you won't really see us put on the accelerator until the timings are bit more clear, in terms of when the post-COVID world hits. But there's definitely going to be some level of calculated risk taking in advance of that window to make sure that we're poised to take advantage of that world which we think is going to be a fantastic world for us. There's couldn't have been a year or more of pent up demand from consumers who haven't been able to do things that they love, these special occasions that we're known for. And so we want to make sure we're ready in position with our inventory and marketing to take advantage of that situation as soon as it comes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Ross Sandler with Barclays. Your line is open.

Ross Sandler

Analyst

Just a question about active customer count, so actually declined quarter-on-quarter for the first time. I know that's a TTM number. But can you just walk us through how of much that is from just the overall environment and things like stimulus checks that are out of your controls versus the reduction in marketing and maybe tougher time retaining customers. And it sounds like I'm glad to hear that you guys are going to lean back in starting now. But how are you thinking about balancing these record high EBITDA margins with just growing top of the funnel and getting back out there with more customer acquisition. That's the first question. And then just any learnings from the live streaming efforts thus far how that in terms of adding to your ability to grow the funnel and attract new customers.

Jesse Timmermans

Analyst

Hi Ross, this is Jesse. I'll start out with couple of just quick details and then it over to Mike to talk a little bit more about the acquisition and the lean in. You're right we did see active customers decline sequentially and you know that's largely an impact of the COVID world. We do think there was a benefit from the stimulus check and the extra unemployment that was happening through July that started to hit us and now through the second wave of COVID cases and everything else that you hear out there. So there definitely is an impact there. And we anticipated that active customer number to come down sequentially from the plus 12-ish we're at the end of the last quarter to plus five now. It's a combination of both the new and the repeat and that's what you know tell us it's largely a COVID impact. 45% of that active customer base is repeater or an existing customer. But they continue a much larger share of the revenue so important that we lean on that existing customer.

Mike Karanikolas

Analyst

And looking at the broader picture Ross. We're in a world today in the second quarter and then the third quarter as well that does play to our strengths as a brand and as a retailer. We're known for social occasions and living your best life. And [indiscernible] in a period where those things were all true. So it's due to the environment we're facing and uncertainly with the quarter-to-quarter dynamics. You have a term called month number as well as some of the pressures that we ignored [ph] in the third quarter, where we saw for example the digital advertising markets get much more competitive in the third quarter not just on a sequential basis but also on a year-over-year basis. Where there a lot of players stepping in a big way that they had historically. That from a year-over-year comp perspective that has an impact but we feel good about of the trajectory there and as we discussed we're going to start leaning on the marketing as well. The inventory position as we get closer to a post-COVID world which it looks like - best information available should be sometime in Q2 or Q3 and we want to be first there, so that we can leverage our brands that really going to work in that world.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Oliver Chen with Cowen. Your line is open.

Oliver Chen

Analyst

The September information is very helpful. On the down high single-digit, what were some of the levers underneath that with average order value and transaction count? I mean what are some of the optimistic cases for how that could improve going forward. We would also just love your take on - your commentary on Owned Brands. It's such a dynamic environment currently. But what are you seeing that really helps inform the innovation that you have planned there and the impact that it will have later to your prepared remark on Owned Brands? Thank you.

Jesse Timmermans

Analyst

Hi Oliver, this is Jesse. I'll take the first one and then kick it over Michael. As we said on our prepared remarks, we did see September come down in that high single-digit range and that continued through October. The drivers there are really consistent with the remarks we made on both September and October and lower average order value continues driven by those same factors that are shift in mix, offset by continued strength in full price that was really strong in the quarter which drove that margin. Better margins on the markdown merchandise, all centered around that improved inventory hold. So its lot of the same as the commentary we made earlier just the overall macro pressure. Sorry, one more comment I missed that last part of your question on the back half of Q4. We're not commenting on that. We're just commenting what happened through October and November to-date it's really volatile with election and this is just such a short period of time, kind of staying away from comments there and also kind of prepared for just prolonged promotional cadence in this holiday period and back to the comments on margin we made for the quarter.

Oliver Chen

Analyst

What's your thoughts on Owned Brands? Thank you.

Michael Mente

Analyst

Hi Oliver. With regards to owned brands I'm sure going through the call that pre-COVID period we were pulling back Owned Brand and kind of resetting and regrouping, continue to invest. And then with COVID, we really accelerated that because of the dollar commitment per style with the Owned Brand division compared to third-party where we have lot less flexibility. As of now, we'll begin to ramp up quite aggressively. Q3 will probably be our trough in terms of styles to levered and call it a ball park, at least get 50% into Q4 and similar growth rate into Q1 and Q2 of next year. So that margin, that reinvestment period has already begun. On top of that, I'm very excited because it's not just getting those numbers up and also the diversity and the quality of the product is going to be much, much different and very, very exciting for us. Largely in times past we were very, very successful with China-based woven dresses and tops move such and that's been where the Owned Brand division really thrived and we continue to make investments in other aspects of supply chain. Again COVID really accelerated this and now the sweaters and knits business for us is extremely important. Owned Brand division is doing very, very well with sweaters and knits and continued investments in other categories. In 2021, we'll be seeing continued investments in denim, continued investments in activewear especially and also sustainable product as well. So we'll be ramping up aggressively and the product that'll be upcoming. We're very, very excited and we think it's going to be better than ever.

Oliver Chen

Analyst

Thank you very much. Final question. So your call out on large scale in person events, has that been different from how you previously observed the impact there? And also, how do you plan on this dynamic environment to be ready and what are different risk factors? Are those like uncontrollable and controllable factors around the environment that we're seeing? Thanks.

Michael Mente

Analyst

In times past large scale in person events will go synonymous with deploying large amounts of marketing capital in very, very effective ways under the investment of table that we continue to expand. We started with smaller events and we were able to scale them, getting more impact and more efficiency something for sure, we missed. We have things that have been starting to ramp up. Right now where Camp REVOLVE which we had to do instead of doing a large deal event, which is four separate groups instead of having all groups together at once. But we're starting to ramp up in person events. We have a number of options on the menu for Q1 and Q2. We'll have to be a little patient in terms of committing to anything, to see how the world plays out. We're very optimistic. I'm sure the rest of the world is about the vaccine. And depending on how the environment is, the events will just get large and large in scale as things progress and ultimately when we fell that we're in the safe world, where we could all get together again and we'll be able to [indiscernible]. You'll probably see a larger scale events and the best party in the world coming very, very soon in REVOLVE, around the world, in the early [ph] 2020s with a lot of people. Really just excited to wear their favorite clothes and hang out with friends and that's the time that we're looking forward and I'm sure our shareholders are really looking forward to that as well.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Mark Altschwager with Baird. Your line is open.

Mark Altschwager

Analyst

First more of a short-term question. It's given the plan to lean back into marketing. Is it your expectation that you can drive some reacceleration from the down high single digits over the remainder of the quarter, assuming the leverage you're pulling from [indiscernible] perspective or otherwise that would give more optimism for the holiday season? And then just longer term looking into 2021 and the spring and festival season obviously very important period for you, where we sit today it seems like we can't really plan on events being back to normal by then. Though I'm sure I'm wrong so since maybe just give us some insights with how you're positioning yourself for the spring season. How much more aggressively do you want to lean into some of these stay at home categories? How responsive can you be to consumer shift back into the traditional fashion categories more roughly than expected, some insight there would be great? Thanks.

Mike Karanikolas

Analyst

Definitely, so [indiscernible] increasing our marketing expenditures. At the same time historically the way we always play thing is we go with the current. And so we're not going to fight a brick wall just to achieve a certain number and put dollars to work - effective. But we do understand that we do need to put dollars to work ahead of when we think the rebound will occur particularly on the brand marketing side. Where a lot of the impact of brand marketing is longer term in terms of the messaging, in terms of seeing awareness, so that's really where we're going to lean on, and starting to ramp up investments as is practical given the environment because there's still a lot of constraints within the environment as far as us making those investments. To make sure that we're well positioned as soon as the world turns. And then I think in terms of seeing our merchandize mix and timing of pre-COVID, post-COVID kind of transitionary period. It's going to be balanced. We're willing to take some bets and be wrong there just because we think it's such a huge opportunity to be there first with a great selection as soon as people are able to get out and do the things that they love. And it's just perfectly aligned with what our brand is all about. So we're willing to take a little bit of risk there. But obviously I think if you look at track record. We don't take foolish risk; you know the calculated managed risks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Michael Binetti with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Michael Binetti

Analyst

I wanted to ask you, a couple of things, I guess. The sustainability of margins it's on third quarter obviously we heard Jesse's commentary on some of the components for fourth quarter. But maybe just some thoughts on when you think the mixed brand starting the mix of Owned Brands with that higher year-over-year and when your inventory in total will be back in line with sales. And then, I guess do you feel like when you look at the active customer trends. Do you feel like that you lost a customer that was coming to you for markdowns, discounted products only or do you have data that the customer that mostly lapsed or was it temporary lapsed and they'll be back as the markdown levels normalize and do you want them back as though?

Michael Mente

Analyst

It's Michael. I'll take the first one and then kick it over Mike on the customer components. As we commented on, we're starting to already invested in inventory, inventory is up $9 million sequentially. So we're starting to make that improvement, our investment in inventory. We're still down meaningfully year-over-year. So we don't expect that line to cross until probably mid-year of next year. You have to of course consider the significant cuts we made this year. So there's some comp dynamics as you look into 2021. But we're taking as Mike mentioned on the previous question balanced risk as we look ahead into post-COVID world. And then on gross margin and Owned Brand, same thing. We've already started to make those investments. Those will kick in really until mid-2021 before we see that line start to cross, just given the timing in inventory dynamics there.

Mike Karanikolas

Analyst

On the customer front, I think there's a couple dynamics going on. Certainly there's decreased levels of markdowns which are really pretty much historical lows and in the current quarter as far as if you look at how we normally perform in the third quarter. Certainly there are some customers that aren't buying now but would buy, if we have markdowns as great as the performance in the quarter was and as great as our momentum is, and what we believe is our ability to manage inventory. We will have quarters in the future that have more markdowns aiming for that customer will come back then. But I think more importantly, we know that there's a huge portion of customers out there that, that know us, that love us but haven't forgotten about us, that are dying to shop. But just there are not right occasions to shop for in the ways that they normally shop. I actually got an email just this morning from a customer. We were just talking about how much she loved REVOVLE and how much she was looking forward to shopping with us again as soon as COVID was over and her husband could run his business again. And I'm sure there's many more stories like that out there. I had another customer that last earnings call, she saw me on TV and reached out and she talked about, she loves us, she shops all the time. She can only shop us for active. She's pretty much only been shopping with us for activewear in the current period. But she can't wait until things are back to normal and she can shop us for all the same things that she normally loves us for. So the customer is there. She loves us. We're really pleased with the results that we've had during this period given how opposite it is that what our brand is all about and we're going to make sure we make the good investments into marketing and our inventory position and just be operationally nimble. So that when the post-COVID world hits and when that pent-up demand is unleashed and everyone goes back to doing the things they love. We're going to be there to take advantage of it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Kimberly Greenberger with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Kimberly Greenberger

Analyst

I wanted to ask a question about Q4 marketing this year. It makes sense obviously to start investing back into marketing. I'm wondering if you did that in the month of October and if so, did you see any knock-on benefits to revenue in the month of October from that. And then as we look out to next year, should we expect to see marketing normalize back at that kind of 15% level or are there any kind of savings that you think you'll flow to the bottom line on that market line. Thanks so much.

Mike Karanikolas

Analyst

Yes, so on a sequential basis we've been beginning to invest more and more in marketing with each month. I think we could have briefly discussed some of the revenue trends in October and how they were similar to what we saw in October. So I wouldn't say we've seen the fruits of those investments yet. But there's a lot we do in the marketing side because the brand marketing that's really kind of lagging in its impact in terms of how our marketing works. And so not to mention that October is very unseal month we've got COVID environment and also the election noise going on. So I wouldn't read too much into that. And then in terms of looking into the future. We intend generally to invest just as much in marketing as we ever have. But we're also not [indiscernible] about things. We play every environment different, any information comes out that to us, it's better to adjust our strategy. We'll certainly do that. But we've said since we went public and it continues to be the case that marketing's are important to us for spreading, our brand message preceding awareness that we're in the early innings in terms of the customers that we can capture with just over 2% penetration of our target market. And so it's going to be a big part of our expenditures and strategy going forward.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Aaron Kessler with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Aaron Kessler

Analyst

Couple questions. First on the promotional environment, any more color around that, is it mostly traditional retailers. And second, based on the content marketing. I think you talked about little bit that last quarter getting some good traction there with some of the video and any thoughts on Instagram Reels that is a platform for you guys as well. Thank you.

Mike Karanikolas

Analyst

Michael, do you want to maybe take the content marketing side of things?

Michael Mente

Analyst

Yes, the content part definitely. Considering quite interesting that's really kind of - its super interesting as we're [indiscernible] modeling brands we're making moves, accelerated moves and the same goes to our in-person event and such. REVOLVE U [ph] is something we're planning for - it's been on in the brainstorming sessions for maybe over a year or so. We thought that this will be the perfect time to actually do something like that where in person and parties and such for the longer relevant and such. So in the future we'll definitely see a combination of these digital events that we're doing combined with in person events and then potentially integrate them. So very excited about that. Reels has been interesting and I think we saw tremendous boost in that outset. I think potentially there was a push there where we were seeing a lot of eyeballs and we see things taper off a little bit. So we'll see how things evolve. We're very long-term minded and I think Instagram Stories is a good example of setting that and the outset wasn't particularly impactful. But really steadily grew into something that was very, very important for us. So we'll continue to invest in Reels and hopefully that will continue to gain traction in there and will be important part of component.

Mike Karanikolas

Analyst

And then with regards to the promotional environment. We've certainly seen in easing of things particularly on the luxury side. But I think if you look at REVOLVE versus the broader market things have eased much more sharply and probably ease isn't the right word for our own markdown positions. The consumer demand is shifted to be less marked down focused than it was. But at the same time, we're in active discussion during the quarter was that we do have enough markdown merchandise to meet the markdown demand from our consumers and that's a good problem to have. But it's certainly had an impact on a revenue from the quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Justin Post with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

Justin Post

Analyst

I'm just wondering you had some real efficiencies on the cost side for the last couple of quarters. Guidance and outlook kind of discusses some of those maybe dissipating or making more investments. But when you think out year or two, what are some of the lasting cost savings that might continue going forward? Thank you.

Jesse Timmermans

Analyst

Yes, sure. So I think if you just work down through the P&L starting from the top. Fulfillment is an area where we do see lasting efficiencies, combination of two factors there really overtime and maybe I'm thinking in longer term. One and we refer to this to a lot because it's meaningful. But the efficiency gain is a result of the automation investments that we've made over the last 18 months and then also capacity. We invested in the new warehouse last year, they did this 2x to 3x capacity that we're at now. So we should see natural levers on that line item over time. As we mentioned there is a return rate component there so. We do anticipate returns to pick up slightly sequentially hopefully lower than our peak times the last year in that 55% range. So we do hope some of that return dynamic does play out in a post-COVID world but not banking on that one. Selling and distribution will continue to be pressured there as shipping costs go up year-on-year pretty consistently. We'll look to make improvements overtime within increasing AOV over the longer term that should give us some easing there. Marketing we talked about. We'll continue to make investments and not banking on really any leverage on that line item over time. And then G&A, which is largely fixed with scale we'll get leverage on that line item.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Bob Drbul with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.

Bob Drbul

Analyst

Just a couple quick questions for you. I think the first one is, when you talk about September trends, October trends and in November. With the performance of international, can you maybe give us a little color on what you saw on the international markets? It's my first question and the second question is, are you partnering with any of the top TikTokers as you think about how the world is changing these deals versus Instagram? That will be helpful. Thanks.

Mike Karanikolas

Analyst

Yes, so with regards to the international markets, we saw strength in the third quarter, particularly in our western markets, so in Western Europe and Australia, Canada. We saw double-digit gains in those markets. So we feel very good about our progress and trajectory there. Certainly, in the near term with resurgence in COVID in Europe and exercise some near-term caution to headwinds in the current quarter, but I feel great about the trajectory there. And then offset by some weakness in Asia. Asia is an area where we're starting to make, I think, some more meaningful investments and have some interesting partnerships that we're working on, but not quite there yet. And so hopefully, as those things come to fruition, we'll see some gains there. And then also, Hong Kong has been for a while, our most important Asian market and that region has been very troubled for a number of quarters now with the rest.

Michael Mente

Analyst

When it comes to TikTok, I would probably phrase it, we haven't worked with the top TikTokers, we have worked with the top fashion TikTokers, where we see the top TikTokers getting tens of millions of views and then create insane numbers. But the content really is a fashion focus and it really isn't quite aligned with our brand. But the top fashion TikTokers are very, very much in line with our brand and we have worked with them and we plan to work with them much, much more. We see the content to be a little bit more in depth compared to Instagram. Where it's really numerous kind of styling tips and outfits and a lot of richer content. To me, it's a little bit more akin to YouTube than Instagram, which I think is right in between is very, very exciting. And we will continue to do a lot more. The only disadvantage with TikTok being an earlier platform is that the access to data and kind of like our tools aren't as developed as Instagram tools that we've had for nearly 10 years now. So whether it be our in-house things or the numbers that TikTok [indiscernible] see in house, or that's third-party APIs have won't be as robust as Instagram for a little bit. But the encouraging numbers that we have are very exciting and no doubt, we'll see a lot more REVOLVE on TikTok.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Roxanne Meyer with MKM Partners. Your line is open.

Roxanne Meyer

Analyst

My first question is on, wondering if you could provide a little bit of color about the performance. Obviously, you've got quite a number of sub categories. So curious if they've all been weaker or they've been pockets of strength in some of them. Also curios what percent of 4Q dresses as typically represent and perhaps how they're positioned this year given your investment in other categories?

Michael Mente

Analyst

When it comes to categorization and sub-categorization, it becomes like a very, very complex situation because the way we look at categories is multi-dimensional. Of course, overall, we see dresses down quite a bit compared to our other categories. But within dresses, there's sub-categories and there's end uses that are doing very, very well. So we kind of will sometimes share high level category data that kind of illustratively tell the story of how the business is performing. But as you go deep and deep, there's strong pockets of success across the Board. I think one thing, this is an interesting fun one to me that we saw that activewear dresses was extremely strong. It's kind of like the cross pollination of activewear, which of course everyone loves. In this pandemic time period, we're doing extremely well with a traditional REVOLVE category, so that's something that seems very, very exciting to us, but yet small. But Jesse, do you want to talk about Q4 dynamics in terms of categorization and such, it's definitely going out dresses and there's certain categories. We have various degrees of going out dresses, that I'm sure we'll suffer but there's also other categories that are very holiday oriented that will boost, which we anticipate such as sweaters and knits and such.

Jesse Timmermans

Analyst

Yes, sure. Just to give some more context, maybe even beyond Q4 on dress mix. Historically it's been at or slightly greater than third of our business. Then in Q2, we saw that drop off mainly [ph] to closer to 20%. We did see some recover into Q3. So dresses did improve sequentially and I think you the most exciting part about that sequential improvement is that came from full price dress sales as we commented on the prepared remarks. We saw significant decrease in amount of markdown dress sales from Q2 to Q3. So exciting to see that dresses come back in a full price way. And then the Q4 skews, slightly higher on dresses that compared to other quarters of the years just given that occasion wear dynamic, but not meaningfully. So we'll continue to see similar pressure on dresses as we have in the last quarter or two until we get into a real post-COVID world.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Matt Koranda with ROTH Capital. Your line is open.

Matt Koranda

Analyst

Two from me. The first one is just overall orders per active customer look a little lower on a like-for-like basis year-over-year and sequentially. So it's understandable that you've got certain existing customers that may pull back in this period. But any detail you can provide on sort of order frequency between older and newer cohorts and what you're seeing in terms of differences between those would be helpful.

Jesse Timmermans

Analyst

Sorry, go ahead, do you have more?

Matt Koranda

Analyst

Sorry, the other one was on return rates and I guess they had it higher in short-term, it depends on mix. But is there anything you guys can do structurally to bring those levels down and take advantage of kind of the lower rates that you've enjoyed over the last quarter or two there in the pandemic?

Jesse Timmermans

Analyst

Yes, I'll take the first one there, and then Mike can comment on longer term return dynamics. We did see that order frequency come down, but keep in mind that sequentially, it did kick up very slightly from Q2 to Q3. So we're encouraged about that. And we're still running higher than our historical averages, if you look back pre-2019, late 2018. So it's still a very active customer. And it came from both the new and the repeat side. Really, the customer dynamics to a large extent near the results on our financials where you see her purchasing at lower AOVs, shifting from dresses into beauty. You saw, as we discussed earlier, a large kind of markdown component in Q2 that shifted to a large full price component in Q3. Also a grade that we're seeing the percentage of beauty products from new customers doubled this quarter compared to the prior year. You saw an offset there in dresses. But kind of largely the customer still behaves relatively consistently with how she has in the past and just some quarter-to-quarter dynamics with shift in merchandising mix and AOVs.

Mike Karanikolas

Analyst

And then in terms of the longer term trajectory with return rates, it's very difficult even for us to disaggregate the impact of COVID and some of the longer term things we're working on, but we're certainly hopeful that some of the things we've been working on will hopefully hold up post-COVID, not to the same level, certainly we're seeing here on return rate, but that we're hoping we'll get some gains on the return rate dynamics, various factors, including some category mix shifts that should potentially stay post-COVID due to investments we've been making on our side in terms of our quality and presenting the product inaccurately and kind of other things we've been working on internally. As well as some other, I guess, more proprietary levers that pull that we're hopeful will have an impact. It just so happens, a lot of those things came to fruition at the same time as COVID hit. So we'll have to see post-COVID to what extent those initiatives hold up. And then long, long-term, we're very bullish on return rate improvements. We think there's a lot that can be done in the online world to better communicate to customers what products are the products you're going to love, not just on the site, but once she gets them in person and once she tries them on. And so that's always an area that we're investing in.

Operator

Operator

We have time for one more question. Our last question is from Ralph Schackart with William Blair. Your line is open.

Ralph Schackart

Analyst

Great. Thanks for squeezing me in. Two questions, if I could. Jesse, you talked about September declines in the high single-digit range. Can you maybe give us some perspective on the linearity of the declines in September and then this really change or the trajectory change in October, just see more deceleration, acceleration, was it fairly steady? And then just in terms of when a vaccine rolls out and the world starts to open again, what's the lead time you need to plan your larger in person events? Thank you.

Jesse Timmermans

Analyst

Yeah. On the September - October dynamic, it was pretty consistent across the two months. Of course, there's day-to-day and week-to-week dynamics, but for September and October, largely similar with a lot of dynamics at play in those couple of months, the second wave COVID and a lot of just macro pressures and external pressure. And then on the large-scale events, the team can react very quickly. You saw that as we headed into COVID and their ability to quickly pull back on events, and restructure and recreate kind of and move into this live streaming and content. So we're optimistic, and they can move really fast to get into events when the time is right.

Michael Mente

Analyst

Yes, Michael here, just additional commentary is that there's a number of events that are really on the shelf ready to go. It's really about a matter of which one do we pull when and eyeing that through maybe the next couple of months and just early next year. We are there, ready to go and we very looking forward to it. And I think it will continue as the vaccine rolls out and maybe pre-vaccine, we'll have some activities going. Post vaccine, we are locked and loaded with the capital and with the plans and the desire to go. So very excited.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

Mike Karanikolas

Analyst

Well thank you everyone for joining us today. Thanks again to our team and on this Veterans Day a special thanks to those that have served our country. Thank you for your sacrifice.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call and you may now disconnect.