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Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)

Q3 2019 Earnings Call· Mon, Feb 4, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello. And welcome to the Ryanair Third Quarter FY ‘19 Results Call. Throughout this, all participants will be in listen-only mode, and after, there will be a question-and-answer session. Just to remind you, this is being recorded. So, today, I am pleased to present, Michael O’Leary, Chief Executive; and Neil Sorahan, CFO. Please begin. Michael O’Leary: Okay. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Ryanair Q3 results conference call. I am here with management team in Dublin and Neil is joining us from London where he was doing the PR this morning. As you will see, all of the results were released this morning on the website at 7 o’clock. We have an MD&A tele or a video with MD&A on that, which should address much of the questions that might arise. A couple of quick themes, while they -- the €20 million loss in Q3 was disappointing, we take considerable comfort that all of it was due to weaker than expected airfares. There isn’t a cost issue here, but lower prices is good for our current and for our future traffic growth, bad for our competition. Ancillary revenues have performed strongly in the quarter, up 26% all -- and this helped us to offset higher fuel, higher staff cost and higher EU261 cost. Ryanair has the lowest unit cost of any EU airline and this gap is widening. We take delivery of the first five B737 MAX gamechanger aircraft from April. These aircraft have 4% more seats, are 16% more fuel efficient and they will drive unit cost efficiencies over the next five years. Unlike other airlines, we will be talking about adding lower cost to aircrafts and then seeing our aircraft’s ownership costs rise faster than our traffic. With these aircrafts, you will see our aircraft and…

Neil Sorahan

Management

Okay. Thanks, Michael. Well, just to echo Michael’s comments earlier this morning, guests grew strongly in the quarter to 33 million customers. That was driven by a 6% reduction in average fare. However, ancillary has performed very strongly, which meant that total revenue per guest was up 1% in the quarter. Fuel, as expected increased by 32% to just over €570 million. However, other unit costs, ex-fuel we are up 6% in line with expectations and actually below the growth in passenger numbers. As a result, profit after tax come in at €20 million of a loss in the quarter. Balance sheet very strong, BBB+ rated balance sheet, €2.2 billion gross cash, and as Michael said, 93% of the fleets owns -- only 7%f the fleet leased and the vast majority unencumbered. So a very strong balance sheets cost, as I said, very much under controlled. Michael O’Leary: Okay. Thanks, Neil. Okay. We will open up for questions-and-answers. And as I said before, we are going to limit everyone to just two questions please, so we get two with some reasonable speed.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And the first is over the line of Daniel Roeska at Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Daniel Roeska

Analyst

Then two questions if I may. One on the Group structure. Could you elaborate a little bit more on the elements of the IG model you would be planning to adopt. So what are the individual airline fees going to be able to decide or be responsible or is that more kind of the labor arbitrage game, is it to cause plus, is it a full P&L, kind of where do the commercial functions and writer lab fits in that environment? And secondly on the topic of M&A, every other airline unit cost in Europe is more expensive than Ryanair and until now it seems organic growth has always been a little bit better than inorganic growth. So what factors have changed in your assessment of the strategic growth opportunities for Ryanair to make M&A more compelling at this point in time? Thanks. Michael O’Leary: Thanks, Daniel. Okay. I would not going to get into details the Group structure on this call. I think we will be able to feed that out more appropriately to shareholders when we do the full year result road show in July. Suffice to say that there will be a small Group of staff headed by myself, Chief Executive. They will be a Group Finance and a Group Legal. But underneath that the individual airline’s CEO will have responsibility for running each of the individual airlines. They will be responsible for their own cost management and out of that cost management will come aircraft allocations and capital allocations. And to add that there will be some central functions, but they will largely more all be handled by Ryanair, most notably Ryanair Labs, that we will run the sales functions as we do currently of Laudamotion, Ryanair Sun, those are through the Ryanair or the ryanair.com…

Operator

Operator

Our next question is over to the line of Jarrod Castle at UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Michael O’Leary: Jarrod, hi.

Jarrod Castle

Analyst

On the fuel hedging, you had hedged kind of 52% at 718 [ph] at the half year results and now we are at 90% at 709 [ph]. So just I am trying to understand why some of the fuel benefit doesn’t seem to be coming through in the hedge ratio kind of where you are hedging? And then, secondly, just looking at the balance sheet, you should continue to throw some cash, should we be expecting some further capital returns in the next month? Thanks. Michael O’Leary: Okay. Thank you. Yeah. We took it beyond the fuel on the half years which was in September, we are always bottling that time with €84 a barrel. The forward rates were -- we were trying to get forward rates under €70 a barrel at that time. We tried to close that out and we finished -- by the time we finished closing out the hedge for that we had 90% of FY ‘20 hedged that €71 a barrel. We are very delighted with that success as oil we spot on was €84 a barrel then in the space of about four weeks about $84 a barrel down to under $60 a barrel. So what looks like a very clever hedging strategy quickly became a not so clever hedging strategy. And I think our general view is that fuel is likely to trend slightly back upwards. We are a bit out of the market at the moment compared to staff. We are looking now at hedging out into FY ‘21. But, again, based on current spot rates, we are trying to get forward rates out at around or under $600 per ton. Again, we don’t do fuel hedging here to try to beat the market. We try to use fuel hedging to give us cost certainty for the next 12 months. On the balance sheet, the balance sheet remains strong. I think our position has been consistently that, yes, we would like to do another capital return to shareholders, but I think it will be done in the context of once we have some certainty on the outcome of Brexit and we very much hope will have certainty in the outcome of Brexit. In the event of a hard Brexit, obviously, we would have a slight -- we would have, for a period of time depending on how many of the U.K. shareholders don’t reflag into Europe. We may have a small surplus or a majority of non-EU shareholders. I think we would be timing another share buyback, at the same time as we would be imposing restrictions on all non-EU shareholders, voting and share sale restrictions. But the timing of a share buyback would facilitate some of those shareholders being able to dispose of their non-EU shares to -- they could participate in the buy back. So I think the timing of a further share buyback would be very much driven by some developments on Brexit over the next couple of months.

Jarrod Castle

Analyst

Thank you. Michael O’Leary: Thanks, Jarrod. Next question.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is over the line of Savi Syth at Raymond James. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Michael O’Leary: Savi, hi.

Savi Syth

Analyst

Hi. Just two questions, Michael, you indicated the opportunity. If that opportunity will present itself you would consider accelerating the MAX growth. Would that be incremental growth or would that be kind of accelerating retirements in return? And then, Niel… Michael O’Leary: Sorry. Just go back on that. I didn’t get that question. We consider opportunities to what?

Savi Syth

Analyst

To accelerate the MAX growth. Michael O’Leary: To accelerate the MAX growth?

Savi Syth

Analyst

Yeah. Is this the opportunity to rose and I know you mentioned you would consider getting more MAX aircraft, and then, I am just wondering if that would be accelerating the retirements or it should be kind of incremental growth? And then the second question just on the cost. It’s helpful to kind of indicate kind of flat to down cost looking forward. Just wondering if you could kind of talk about, Neil, kind of the trends of some of the bigger cost items as you kind of exit this year and head into next year? Michael O’Leary: I mean, we are always willing to accelerate growth if there is a cost opportunity to do so. I mean, if that were to require some collapse in aircraft values or some crisis in the aircraft. Now I suspect both Airbus and Boeing are presently facing a lot of canceled orders or aircraft redeliveries. But I would imagine at the moment in the next 12 months or 24 months our fleet growth any -- and so any on-plan fleet growth is likely to take place on the Airbus side through Laudamotion. We have been struck by the ready availability of reasonably low cost Airbus A320s, good eight-year to 10-year-old second-hand Airbus A320s. Coming back on the market, it seems to me where leasing companies are stopping these airlines with new NEOs and taking back delivery of very clean reasonably young CEOs. We have seen -- when we first started trying to procure a fleet for Laudamotion 12 months ago. I think we have seen the lease rates on those second-hand Airbus A320s go from over €200,000 a month back down to -- up to 10% below. We are looking at lease centers now between $170,000 per month and $190,000 per month. And certainly, we have -- that would encourages to accelerate Laudamotion -- the fleet growth in Laudamotion from 19 aircrafts last year, 24 aircrafts in summer of ‘19 and up to 30 aircrafts in summer of 2020. If we see some further opportunities on the second-hand Airbus side, I think, we would jump on those. I don’t foresee much of the MAX side at the moment. I mean, it is -- will be new aircrafts to us. We are taking five this year. Next winter we take 50 of those aircrafts. I think half of that -- those 50 will be reallocated to Ryanair Sun and go onto Polish register, probably, half would be on the Irish register. I wouldn’t see us accelerating that growth much beyond that at the moment. I think it will be a big jump for us to take 50 MAX next winter and I am putting those aircraft into a lot of bases where they will not be familiar with dealing with the MAX aircraft. So, if there’s any accelerated growth I think in the 12 months or 18 months, it would be through Laudamotion or through some small-scale M&A.

Savi Syth

Analyst

Got it. Michael O’Leary: And, Neil, do you want to take the cost point or …

Neil Sorahan

Management

Yeah. I mean, I suppose, Savi, just to be clear, we are doing our budget at this time of the year, so we haven’t got the full year numbers yet and I will give more color on that in May. But as we move into next year, we start to see the costs, for example, on the staff line stabilize with the 20% pay increases factored in. We start to see the benefits coming through on the MAX although we only really have five MAXs operating this summer while 10% of the fleet will be MAXs by the end of this financial 2020. It’s really summer 2020 where we see the huge benefits. Airport and handling, we continue to see good opportunities there and we have nearly 20 leases going back next year as well, which will drop down the aircraft rentals line. So we will see it stabilize and then beyond that starts to drop on a per passenger basis.

Savi Syth

Analyst

Okay. Michael O’Leary: I think we are reasonably confident the unit cost next year will be flattish -- flat slightly down. The only one that I think will still be out of control will be the EU261 compensation claims. We are expecting another torrid second calendar quarter. We think the understaffing in U.K., German and repeated strikes in French ATC will reappear in April, May and June again of this year because none of those problems have been addressed. But so with the exception of EU261 cost, we are reasonably optimistic that unit cost will be flat to slightly down in the next 12 months.

Savi Syth

Analyst

Helpful. Thank you. Michael O’Leary: Next question please. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Now we will go to the line of Duane Pfennigwerth at Evercore. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Michael O’Leary: Duane, hi.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Analyst

Most of my questions have been asked. Michael, how do you see your job changing in the new structure, what are the things you will be excited to do that you could not do previously? Michael O’Leary: I don’t think there will be that much change in the new structure. I mean, for the next 12 months I will still be the Chief Executive of the airline. I am spending a reasonable portion of my time at the moment working with Andreas who’s the Chief Executive of Laudamotion, with Michal, the Chief Executive of Ryanair Sun, oversee the development of those airlines and allocating aircraft and capital to those companies. So I think it will be an evolution over the next year or two. The key challenge is to get the right Chief Executive for Ryanair the airline in place by the end of this year and then hold his or her hand over the next 12 months, so that we don’t lose the focus on cost and we continue to run. But then continue to encourage each of the airlines to compete actively for capital and aircraft. I mean it’s big opportunity for us in the next year or two certainly as group of airlines is to encourage much more competition between Ryanair, Laudamotion, Ryanair Sun to compete for aircraft, because they can use those aircraft more profitably or at lower cost than other airlines within the group.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Analyst

Thanks for the thoughts. Michael O’Leary: Thank you, Duane. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

We now go to Stephen Furlong from Davy. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Michael O’Leary: Stephen, hi.

Stephen Furlong

Analyst

Hello. Yeah. Hi. Hi, Mike. Hi, Neil. Just two quick ones, just go back to the leases on the Lauda aircraft and I am just interested in the what’s the tenor of the time of those leases and is the ultimate intention to refinance those leases which owned aircraft down the road from either Boeing or Airbus? And then just a second quick one, I was just wondering usually it’s around this time last couple of years as being some kind of branding marketing push like always getting better, is that planned for this year? Thanks. Michael O’Leary: Yeah. Leases at the moment, the tenor of those leases are five years and so we did, and we are redelivering at the moment the nine Lufthansa, very expensive Lufthansa aircraft. They will be delivered back to Lufthansa starting in January and the last will be gone in June. So we have the first. At the moment, Laudamotion will have this summer -- are for summer ‘19 -- in summer ‘19. So we will have a fleet of19 Airbus aircrafts on five-year leases. We have already signed the LOIs for another 11 aircraft -- Airbus aircraft for next year before December ‘20 with five-year leases. So they will run through until 2023, 2024. We are having -- we are accelerating our what was called dialogue with Airbus. I mean, the initial -- the kind of initial discussion with Airbus last year we are about to buy Laudamotion, we need aircraft for delivery in 2019, 2020 so we can grow and listen, look, we don’t have aircraft in that period. Now that these lease -- I mean, I think, there are significant opportunities for us in the lease market and I would have no difficulty at the moment that these kind of prices…

Stephen Furlong

Analyst

That’s great, Michael. Thank you. Michael O’Leary: Thanks, Stephen. Next question please. Come on, next question.

Operator

Operator

We now got to James Hollins of Exane. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Michael O’Leary: James, hi.

James Hollins

Analyst

Hi. Can you hear me? Michael O’Leary: Yes. We can.

James Hollins

Analyst

Yeah. Sorry. So first on summer capacity obviously you are dismissing out of hand or easyJet and Wizz are saying. I mean just putting some numbers on easyJet talked about they were competitor routes capacity being up about 2% in the summer. I mean you have obviously done that work yourselves on how you would initially see your own competitor capacity as earning if you could put a number on it? Secondly, just on the German market, I think it’s obviously been a very tough period with you easyJet, Lufthansa themselves sort of growing into able in work. Maybe just give us an update on how you see the German market on capacity trading etcetera into the next few months I think you specifically said Lauda was looking quite good on that market maybe just the wider market in general? Thank you. Michael O’Leary: I mean and we don’t wishing to speak ill of my competitors. We thought most of the commentary that surrounded their summer 2019 stuff was just blind optimism, coming from airlines who in recent months have promised us don’t worry about higher oil prices, because higher airfares will cover higher oil prices. We didn’t see there was any basis for that. It’s all right for somebody to quote that and say, well, there’s only 2% of capacity growth at that marketplace this summer. The reality is none of the airlines have sufficient visibility on the two summer quarters this year. We generally have stronger advanced bookings than anybody else, and as of today, we have only 18% of those seats sold. It is far too early to be guiding optimistically for this summer, particularly if Norwegian doesn’t go bust between now and -- they survive into the summer and there will still be capacity out there.…

Operator

Operator

It’s over to Damian at RBC. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Michael O’Leary: Damian, hi.

Damian Brewer

Analyst

Hello. Thank you. I hope you can hear me? Michael O’Leary: Yeah.

Damian Brewer

Analyst

Two questions -- great. Two questions please. First of all, coming back and following up on one thing, you mentioned about capital allocation. Could you talk a little bit more about the profit decline for Q3 and whether that was across the piece to what there were certain locations or bases that drag that down. I am guessing given the base cuts that’s already been the case and given you talk about Max allocation of half of that to the Polish register. But can you elaborate a little bit more on what it does mean for the Maxes that get allocated on the Irish registration on the assumption that I assume the capital follows the highest returns? And then, secondly, you talked about ticket sales. Can you also elaborate a bit more on ancillaries, was it just priority boarding and bag policy change in Q3 that improved and how much of that rose forward into the summer? Thank you. Michael O’Leary: Thanks. I mean, Damian characterize again, the profit decline in Q3 it was spread there. I mean there weren’t significant geographic segments. It was spread across the piece. As you know we were predicting a 2% decline in average fares this winter and that was against the prior year comp that we thought was reasonably benign. If you remember the prior year, we had the rostering screw ups and flight cancellations. So, if anything, we thought it would be reasonably benign prior year comparator and we were genuinely surprised by the fact that airfares across these particularly into the Christmas -- those bookings on Christmas were weaker than we had expected in the past. And there’s been some sort of misanalysis that somehow this is a -- something to do with the unions or lack of passenger confidence in…

Damian Brewer

Analyst

And that goes through to next summer? Michael O’Leary: Yeah. It should do.

Damian Brewer

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Michael O’Leary: Next question please.

Operator

Operator

It’s Ruxandra Doser of Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Michael O’Leary: Ruxan, hi.

Ruxandra Doser

Analyst

Yes. Hello. Good morning. Just one question, you mentioned 18% of capacity between April and September being sold at this stage that fell down 1%. I suppose the current booking refer particularly to the start of the summer schedule. So if you adjust for the positive effect from Easter, what is the underlying share decline on bookings that you see in April at this stage? Thanks. Michael O’Leary: I think it’s the continuing trend. I mean, you are right to highlight the fact that Easter is in April. Now, we don’t have that many bookings in the system yet for future, the current, the second quarter which is essentially June, July -- July, August and September, which would be where a lot of the higher yielding traffic will come through. But, and again, so which is why I think that we should be cautious and I would be reasonably -- I am not pessimistic for pricing this summer but I am much more conservative than competitors who were out there last week, frankly, with very little visibility of the summer bookings talking of pricing.

Ruxandra Doser

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Michael O’Leary: Thank you very much, Ruxan. Next question.

Operator

Operator

Okay. We are now over the line of Kathryn Leonard at [Technical Difficulty]. So please go ahead, Kathryn. Your line is now open.

Kathryn Leonard

Analyst

Hello. Good morning, everyone. Michael O’Leary: Yes. Kathryn, go ahead.

Kathryn Leonard

Analyst

Hi. Just follow up further on the ancillary point made by Damian. Just I think when we last spoke, you guys talk about priority boarding and the allocation meeting peak penetration around about the time of November 50%. I think since then the Group has increased the availability of price boarding. You previously, Michael, spoke about that peaking at 50%, because it wasn’t priority if more than 50% of the plane could be a priority board. As I understand is now 100% and the plane where I took recently all 100% of the priority boarders were privileged? So firstly the question is how sustainable is that, I thought the idea going forward was once we reach penetration that the yield management of those products should then give additional growth into FY ‘20. But that doesn’t seem to be happening. You seem to just be increasing the number that is available to you. So how do we think about the ancillary growth at FY ‘20 if you are at penetration already, okay, fine you have raised the bar a little bit. But and then you have mentioned about Ryanair rooms obviously being a small contributor the amount of credit that you are giving is reducing the contribution overall the bottomline. How should we think about 2020? Michael O’Leary: I think we should continue to see increased penetration of past the base through 2020, Ruxan. We have capped the priority -- the priority boarding is capped at 100%, I mean, it’s a minor it’s a fraction over one, eight, nine, it’s a fraction of 50%, but that was always the cap we haven’t raised the cap on that. The priority boarding is now the only way that you can have capacities can bring to carry-on bags onboard. So in many ways, the…

Kathryn Leonard

Analyst

Okay. And then just secondly on the net debt, Neil, are you able to give any guidance on what you expect the net debt to be for full year And just in the context of the other question on the share buyback you said that, I think previously you have said you are comfortable with the net debt position, sort of €200 million to €300 million. So based on whatever guidance you are about to say, I mean, how does that sort of come into, I know that Michael’s comments are on Brexit, but taking aside any hard Brexit and any incentivization or facilitation you use to share buybacks just on an underlying basis?

Neil Sorahan

Management

Well, based on where the numbers are at the moment, Kathryn, we would expect to be somewhere around €500 million-ish on the net debt at year-end balance sheet and in very strong position. Michael O’Leary: Okay. Thanks, Kathryn. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

It’s over to the line of Mark Simpson, Goodbody. Please go ahead. Michael O’Leary: Mark, hi.

Operator

Operator

Mark, your line may be muted. Can you unmute your line, please.

Mark Simpson

Analyst

Yeah. Now can you hear me? Hello. Michael O’Leary: Yes. Go ahead, Mark.

Mark Simpson

Analyst

Yeah. Okay. Thanks. Look, two. One positive transformational improvement is what the term expected to happen on digital platform by the year end. Can you give us a bit more sort of specifics behind that that phrase? And then the other part which is probably sort of take a level of disagreement to your comments in terms of December yields from the competition. I mean you could point to Wizz sort of the ticket RASK being 5% on that quarter. I mean there is this perception and it’s perception reality that there are people concerned about booking with Ryanair in the peak holiday season and that this is the reason why there’s this large spread between the performance of yields from your competition and what you are revealed for this quarter. I think there is a spread there. But I am not quite sure other than this idea that there is a slight biased hesitation. Why that spreads there? Michael O’Leary: Okay. Thank you, Mark. No. We won’t give you any supportive details in digital platform, because, I think, Kenny will be going his big reveal on that at some time. It will be part of the customer experience, customer service improvements that we will be rolling out some time at the end of or middle of -- end of February, middle of March. I mean, December yields like the kind of guidance you were getting from Wizz and easyJet here if you go back six months earlier they were talking up fares much more aggressively. Now to be fair, Wizz has caught a lot of winter capacity. They grounded considered a part of their winter capacity to try to manage their yields. That’s why their cost performance was particularly poor. I mean neither of these two were able to…

Mark Simpson

Analyst

Fair point. Okay. Thanks. Michael O’Leary: Thanks, Mark. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

We are now over the line of Gerald Khoo at [Technical Difficulty]. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Michael O’Leary: Hi, Gerald.

Gerald Khoo

Analyst

Hi. A couple of questions. Firstly, you talked about anticipating more aircraft control problems this summer. But you said that you think it’s going to be at its worse and that showed the peak periods of April, May, June. I am just wondering why you think it’s going to be worse than in the peak of summer. And secondly, I am just wondering whether you could give an indication on where Laudamotion’s average fares and ancillary revenue per passenger sits versus the Group average and whether you think that’s preliminary at the moment and whether you think that they can converge on the average or exceed it. Michael O’Leary: Okay. Thanks. On the ATC problems, I mean, I think historically the worst of the ATC problems tend to take place in that quarter, April, May, June and will run on to the first half of July. That’s usually because the French starts striking around April, May and June. We have still short staffing in the U.K., in Germany and the cars grew ATC that flows over in the magistrate. But the French tend not to strike in January, February and March. We also then April coincide with the switch over to December schedule. So it’s always the month where ATC falls over, because you get all the charge of capacity coming into the marketplace. They are still understaffed. You get all these euphemisms about ATC capacity and all the rest, which is just a euphemisms for fleet short staff. In our view the air traffic controllers in France will then resume striking again through April, May and June, and that’s why typically it tends to be at its worst through those three months. It tends to improve into July and August won’t because the capacity gets -- they get a…

Gerald Khoo

Analyst

Okay. Thanks very much. Michael O’Leary: Yeah. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

It’s over to the line of Neil Glynn at Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Michael O’Leary: Hi, Neil.

Neil Glynn

Analyst

Good morning, everybody. And the first one just on the Airbus engagement you mentioned earlier Michael. Just interested, do you need to agree a plan with Airbus to seat the U.K. AOC with Airbus planes perhaps at some point over the next five years or so to drive proper engagement at scale? Then the second question just on culture in the context of the Group reorganization. Obviously the culture has evolved through this decade through all of us getting better at Ryanair Labs etcetera. But just interested in terms of how you think about a more I guess clunky organization relative to the lean Ryanair in the past, do you need to focus on managing those businesses with the U.K. and the DAC business in particular via internal appointments or how do you think about maintaining the culture in a bigger organization? Michael O’Leary: Yeah. The U.K. AOC, I mean that depends on Brexit, if there is a hard Brexit. I think the U.K. AOC will generally be a reasonably small operation. It’s designed to be able to operate the three U.K. domestic routes and some U.K. non-EU route to U.K. to say Morocco or some of those markets. I wouldn’t convenience that ever being an Airbus fleet vehicle. I mean it will never be a large vehicle. Hopefully, we won’t need it at all, because there will either be -- there would be some agreement on a deal in Brexit. That was the -- I would have preferred a 21-month transition and then a more orderly or at least have a trade agreement in place. So, there’s little out there. There’s little possible disruption. So, no, I don’t see the UK AOC being an Airbus fleet. Laudamotion clearly will be an Airbus fleet and if there’s some other small scale M&A in the next two or three years maybe that. I think the advantage going forward with Laudamotion and Wizz, Ryanair, as we are now have a credible an Airbus operation and we have a credible Boeing operation and therefore if an opportunity came up. But I mean I said most of these opportunities will come out of competition divestments like if IAG had bought Norwegian, for example, Norwegian has a large presence in the Spanish market where opposite side you have IAG with Iberia’s Vueling and Iberia Express. I mean, I think that would have been -- there would had to be some competition divestments coming out of that. So I see the small -- when I say small scale M&A, I think it’s much more of facilitating competition divestment of our other large scale M&A, a bit like all, which is how the Laudamotion opportunity cropped up. We are not running around the place trying to buy things that lose money or lose money that we can’t turn around. And the second part, I forgot the second part of the question, Neil. What was it?

Neil Sorahan

Management

Culture. Michael O’Leary: Oh! Yeah. Culture. I mean, look, I think, we would take the view, Laudamotion has a distinct somewhat Austrian culture. They don’t get our jokes. They don’t like the swearing and much the same in I think in Ryanair Southern Poland. I would encourage each of the airlines that we want to encourage these airlines to have their own culture. We want to -- I mean I see the strength of this not unlike IAG being you have individual or Ryanair lines that competes with each other for capacity, for capital allocation and where an airline develops a cheaper way or a lower cost way of organizing itself, the rest of the other airlines in the group can’t decide whether they want to take advantage of that or not. So, no, I don’t -- I am not a great fan of these unitary kind of cultures or one culture fits all. We are Irish. We take our beatings, such as the rugby on Saturday, well, and we learn to get on with it. But again Laudamotion will I think have an Austrian AOC. It have an Austrian culture. I think certainly Ryanair Sun is Polish AOC and will have increased -- certainly has a Polish-Austria culture and we should encourage that. We should encourage those differences, because out of those different, they will come up opportunity. I think the critical thing that each of the airline CEOs will need to understand though that if you want to grow, you are going to compete with the other airlines for the next aircraft or the next 10 aircrafts, next 20 aircrafts. So go ahead and demonstrate that you can get better growth incentives from airports or better handling deals, you can do a better job, and then we will…

Neil Glynn

Analyst

That’s great. Thanks, Michael. Michael O’Leary: Thanks, Neil. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

We go to the line of Johannes Braun at Mainfirst. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Michael O’Leary: Johannes, hi.

Johannes Braun

Analyst

Yeah. Hi. Two for me as well, so firstly on that framework agreement that you had with the German pilot union recently, just wondering how comfortable are you to reach a full CLA based on that framework agreement. I think you have a deadline for the end of this month? And then, secondly on the new company structure. Just curious what will be the headcount of the new management team within the new structure compared to the old structure should include the operating units in that? Michael O’Leary: Okay. At the union agreements, we are making good progress. I think most notably we have announced both recently that the Spanish cabin crew have signed up a recognition agreement. We are moving to CLA with those. We are in active negotiations with the German unions on the CLAs. There is a commitment there on their side that the agreement would be finalized by the end of February. I am not -- wouldn’t die in a ditch over a deadline at the end of February, but we would like to see it done by the end of February. We have made some other agreements that we can’t yet announce because -- but they are significant because they are being balances at the moment and the unions have asked us not to comment on it publicly until they are over the line. So we have made very good progress. I think I have been struck by the amount of sort of negative foreboding coming out of analyst and both media, we will never manage this and never get done and really I think we have made extraordinary progress this winter with no disruptions. Does that mean we will rule out disruptions this summer? No, I think there, once we have unions, there will…

Johannes Braun

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We now go to Alex Paterson at Investec. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Michael O’Leary: Hi, Alex.

Alex Paterson

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. And can you just remind me why the ratio of staff to aircraft at Laudamotion is much higher than for the rest of the crew? Is that simply a function of using different aircraft i.e. Airbus, Boeing or is it just not integrated in the same way and therefore the scope to improve on that place? Michael O’Leary: Yeah. I mean we inherited a group of staff are mainly on the management side. We had heard that out of the divestment that came out of Air Berlin and it started off last year with a tiny fleet of just nine leased Lufthansa aircraft. In order to grab those slots, valuable slots in Berlin and do this off to Palma, we wet leased 10 of aircrafts. The management there have done quite a degree of pruning this winter. Some of the middle management people have been taken out and you I would be very confident that as Laudamotion moves to a Turkey aircraft fleet by this summer of 2020, none of which will be aircraft leased in from Ryanair. It will be operating at similar staffing ratios in fact maybe staffing ratios to Ryanair. The other issue that also with Laudamotion came it has a maintenance facility there. So Laudamotion has the ex Niki Lauda hangar on about 100 engineering staff there. So, it was kind of because it came out with divestment, we took everything that was there. We didn’t have a choice but to take the maintenance pay. So, it’s a bit just distorted. It will, by the summer of 2020, we operate yet the same staff the aircraft ratio with Ryanair.

Alex Paterson

Analyst

I mean between 2020 and 2019, you actually have an increase in staff per aircraft. So, you go from about 47 to 52. I mean even if you take a hundred off maintenance. It still leaves you 48, rest of Group for 35 or so? Michael O’Leary: Yeah. I mean I am not sure those numbers are correct. I mean, we haven’t release staff per aircraft ratios for Laudamotion for 2020.

Alex Paterson

Analyst

Maybe I am misinterpreting what you say jobs on the Laudamotion slide, slide 11. Michael O’Leary: Yeah. Look, I mean, that’s more PR than anything else. I mean that that’s the second slide for the press in Austria. Do you mind then, do you mind our PR slides, that they are all good news.

Alex Paterson

Analyst

So there may be a few disappointed applicants then? Michael O’Leary: I am sure will be. We have lost a very excited applicant. But the actual we are getting down to the detail of how many jobs we will need to -- how many jobs will be employed to deliver a fleet of 40 or 50 aircraft. Don’t get too much deep over that for the moment. It went down very well with the Austrian Press, suffice to say. Next question. Thanks, Alex. You get the price for the price with the observant boy in the class this morning.

Operator

Operator

We now go to Malte Schulz at Commerzbank. Please go ahead, Malte. Your line is open.

Malte Schulz

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Michael O’Leary: Hi, Malte.

Malte Schulz

Analyst

First of all, on your negotiations with airports, you mentioned that they were quite keen on getting more Ryanair flights to the airport. Is there any concession we can expect from that or do you expect a significant progress on your airport fees? And second one is on your new structure limit, I mean, if you compare with AIG on the individuality of each airline, should we expect to say it’s and in the end also in terms of product difference between Laudamotion and Ryanair for its Ryanair Europe for example or even Ryanair U.K. or will it be mostly on a cost competition only but the product itself will be always the same? Michael O’Leary: Okay. Yeah. I think we are -- I mean there’s a lot of airports out there at the moment who are very nervous about the future of their Norwegian capacity, Germania capacity and some others there as well particularly airports who have FlyBe as a large base. But the way, what we are seeing is -- we are seeing very interesting growth opportunities there, airports pitching not just at Ryanair but also at Lauda interestingly enough as well seeing some very enlightened I know with this said forward-looking growth incentive schemes, which are now becoming I think more and more prevalent not just at secondary airports but also primary airports, and obviously, I can’t give you any detail on that, but we are continuing to encourage that process. Laudamotion, for example, has written out 250 airport -- new airports in the last week talking about their growth plans for the winter of 2019 or the summer of 2020, and it is meeting more than 20 of those airports in London next week, so within the space of seven days more than 20 of the…

Malte Schulz

Analyst

All right.

Operator

Operator

There are currently no questions in the queue. So I will pass it back to you for any closing comment at this stage. Michael O’Leary: Hey, Neil you got any comments you would like to make?

Neil Sorahan

Management

No, Michael, I think we covered it off there and so we will have the full year numbers out in May and we will update everybody again at that stage. Michael O’Leary: Okay. And we do a full road show in May where you know I will put more meat on the bones of both customer service enhancements this year, the Group structure and everything else other than that. I would just conclude by saying, I think we are facing a year of strong traffic growth. I would be cautious on the summer pricing. Unit cost performance into the next 12 months will be good. On like most of our competitors, we can manage our unit costs, and therefore, and I think we are excited about the growth potential in Laudamotion, particularly as we are now signing up aircraft leases reasonably to be opportunistic aircraft leases. And Ryanair Lab is continuing to monetize what is a very successful platform increasingly improving both the customer communications and the ability to convert customers into taking optional services. We are -- we will continue to have a -- we will have a weekly, monthly focus on punctuality. Our punctuality numbers have significantly improved in recent months. But we would be again very worried about that period to April, May, June, when I think all airlines are going to be in Europe as we launch our summer schedules are heading for a torrid time with air traffic control services that are not fit for purpose. And we are still not making much progress with the European Commission or the European Union in tackling the French striking French air traffic controllers. I mean it’s one of those another example of where Europe likes to put the best interests of tiny numbers of producers ahead of…

Operator

Operator

This now concludes today’s call. So thank you all very much for attending and you can now disconnect your lines.