Martin Roper
Analyst · Edward Mundy of Nomura. Your line is open. Please go ahead
All right, Edward, I take the first one on cider. And I’m not sure I tracked the second one, so I’ll pass it to Bill. The cider category growth rate if you look at the publically, again publically available information, has been declining ever since it’s - for at least 12 months, maybe 15, it was 150% and it’s just been coming down. I want to say more recently it’s in the 30% to 50% range. I don’t have those numbers right in front of me. So it’s obviously slowing. Now it’s slowing partly because the basis is so much bigger, maybe because the drinker penetration is happened, the mix returning to what I would describe as a more normal growth rate than the high growth rate that we were sort of experiencing. So just in the - you’re seeing it and I just think its lows are big numbers and probably penetration, trial acceptance, and now we’re sort of trying to grow the base. That’s what I would ascribe it to, but that’s not to say that we are optimistic and we believe that it cannot grow double-digits for several more years. Cider category probably is still order of magnitude 1% of beer, maybe just a little under that and versus other countries where there’s good data, that’s obviously low. And so, we’re just not seeing it growing at the explosive growth rate that we saw the last two years, so that sort of was my - what I was trying to say, and I apologize if that wasn’t clear. And the second question was outlook for cider, 1% of the beer business. I would love to tell you it could get to two but who that knows. And that one I just don’t know. If you’d ask me, six months ago what the growth rate for cider would be, six months from now we would have never guessed that we would have seen the slowdown, but when you look at it analytically, the big number sort of say, it has to. And so frankly, I would be high with low double-digit growth in the category for 10 years that would be pretty cool, that would take the category up to 2.5% of beer, that would be pretty cool, and certainly, if we were able to maintain our position in that, that would be cool as well.