Earnings Labs

Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 27, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from Jose Abad from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. José Abad: Yes, hello, good morning. Thank you very much for the presentation. You reiterated this morning your plans to meet your 11% core equity tier 1 target. The question is whether you plan to do it this year. And you said -- you mentioned that the fully loaded capital target as of Q2 was 10.62% fully loaded, including the full impact of IFRS 9, also pro forma for we think. Therefore, there is a 40 bps shortfall to your target. So it would be good if you could actually give us some visibility of how you plan to meet the target this year, given the run rate of organic capital durations of 10 bps per quarter. The second question is on FX. Would be good if you could give us an update on your hedging strategy for major currencies and in particular the Brazilian real for -- and the British pound for half two of the year and 2019 and also whether you could give us some sensitivity of the impact to tangible book of, let's say, every 10% appreciation in these currencies. Thank you very much. José Antonio Álvarez Álvarez: Okay. I will elaborate on the first point. And I pass to Jose, our CFO, to elaborate on the hedging strategy vis-a-vis with the currency and sensitivity around this. It's true that we have 10.62%. Our target is 11%. As I said, I would remain confident to be at the end of the year around 11%. What we do expect is a relatively low growth in the second half of the year of the risk-weighted assets, while the profit generation will remain fairly strong. We already charge -- we charge already restructuring charge.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. The next question comes from Mario Ropero from Fidentiis. Please go ahead.

Mario Ropero

Analyst

Hello, good morning. My first question is on the available for sale ALCO hit in the quarter reflected in capital. Could you please elaborate in which geographies this impact was felt? And then also on the cost of risk guidance of 1.2%, do you think that 1% is sustainable in the coming quarters, particularly because it is really -- it continues to be really, really low in consumer finance Europe and in the UK? So maybe you can also elaborate a bit on what you expect for cost of risk in these two geographies in the coming quarters. Thank you. José Antonio Álvarez Álvarez: Okay. You want to elaborate on AFS? José Antonio García Cantera: Well, the amount of the portfolios that we have right now is around -- a bit less than €30 billion between Spain and Portugal, €28 billion, and BRL14 billion. We have a very small portfolio in Mexico. So obviously, it was the change in euros and reais that explain the movement in the quarter. But again, as Jose Antonio said, we look at the first half. Basically, the impact is almost neutral in euros and slightly negative in reais. So in the year, in the first half, the valuation of the AFS portfolio almost detracts just a couple of basis points from our capital adequacy. José Antonio Álvarez Álvarez: Probably yes, to clarify that the portfolio is basically Spanish sovereign bonds and Portuguese sovereign bonds because we disposed the portfolio we had in Popular of Italian bonds at the end of last year, at the beginning of -- José Antonio García Cantera: Beginning of this year. José Antonio Álvarez Álvarez: Beginning of this year 2018. Because of risk, how sustainable it is, you asked specifically about two geographies, consumer finance and UK. Well, it's true…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from [indiscernible]. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes, thank you. Two questions, one follow up on capital. Just wondering if you are considering any nonorganic measure to get to the 11% target, and in particular if you can comment on the potential unwinding of the JV with Chrysler for SCUSA and the potential implications or any other measure, like the sale of the real estate assets in Spain, if you're also counting on reducing any capital here. And then second question is on Brazil. Very strong trends in the second quarter with loan growth accelerating, but we have seen also macro prospects deteriorating the last few months with some downgrades in consensus forecast. So if you can update also on your expectations in terms of loan growth and cost of risk for Mexico -- sorry, for Brazil in the full year. Thank you. José Antonio Álvarez Álvarez: Okay. On capital, you are thinking nonorganic measures. Now when I said to you that we were going to be around 11%, it's -- well, nonorganic, we're going to be active as usual in securitizations. But other than that, nonorganic measures. You point out to one fact that is the FCA announcement that they did in the Investor Day that they planned or may plan to buy back from us to secure the option they have in the contract they have with SCUSA. Nothing to comment here. Their intention was announced. They have the right to do so. They have the right to take from us basically all the book we generate in operations with Chrysler, the loan book plus the leases. But it's too early to say anything. Well, the potential impact of that in capital naturally depends on price. And we haven't talked to them. And we haven't received any figure from them. And so it's too early…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. The floor is yours, sir.

Alvaro Serrano

Analyst

Hi. Just a couple of questions on Spain and the UK. So Spain, the NII recovered quarter on quarter. But you still have the -- I think the 1, 2, 3 count. There was a repricing in March and another one in July. So the question is, can you give us a sense of what kind of NII growth we should expect considering that and considering the volume is also recovering? What kind of NII growth should we expect? And should we expect any NII growth as we go into next year, given it seems like we're not going to have any rate increases now? The second question is around the UK. So the NII is now broadly stable. Can you give us both an outlook both in the NII but also in the costs? There was obviously a lot of front-loaded costs that you've pointed out in Q1. The cost rate hasn't dropped that much, only marginally in Q2. And I'm conscious that management expected 5% growth in costs for the full year, so maybe an update in the UK, both in NII and trends and the cost guidance. Thank you. José Antonio Álvarez Álvarez: Okay. Let me to elaborate on the -- I assume that it's the net interest income in Spain. It's a combination -- well, the main driver was funding costs, as you rightly said. There is still more to come in this regard. You also mentioned that it's coming by July. We are building on loyalty at a cost. So and we are balancing this equation. So what is most important probably or the main change is the change we've seen in volumes. Consumer lending plus SMEs is growing. It's growing. Consumer lending was growing last year, but SMEs is the first time. And this…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Sofie Peterzens from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Sofie Peterzens

Analyst

Yes, hi. Here is Sofie from JPMorgan. So I wanted to ask you, what's your view on the potential banking tax in Spain? And what impact would you potentially expect on Santander? And then I also wanted to ask about the Chrysler deal. If it goes ahead, how do you think about your US franchise, given that the annualized ROE in Santander Bank USA is still well below or is slightly below 4%? How should we think about the kind of -- how important the US franchise is to you? And then just very quickly, on the Popular cost synergies, when should we expect to see a big decline in the cost line in Spain? Thank you. José Antonio Álvarez Álvarez: Okay. Tax in Spain, potential banking tax, difficult to elaborate on this. We have seen so many -- I don't know if you call it ideas in the coming -- in the past weeks coming to the media. That is difficult to elaborate in any specific direction. We have seen ideas in increasing the corporate tax, other ideas pointing to having a labor tax and other ideas having a taxation on statutory profits. So it's difficult to elaborate at this stage on this. Naturally, we are -- it's too early to us to give you a number. So you got all of this information, and we don't have more information than the one probably you got through the media. In relation with Chrysler and the return on equity, it's true that, well, when you look at the business in US and we -- you look at the return on equity, with the asset equity, as you know, we have sales equity in the US that we should upstream in the future. But you take the business with a core…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Ignacio Ulargui from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Ignacio Ulargui

Analyst

Hi, good morning, gentlemen. I have two questions for you, one on the tax rate, if you could elaborate a bit on what should we expect on the tax rate going forward after what we have seen in the quarter. And the other one, coming back to the cost of risk, you have just printed a very good cost of risk. The scope to improve in maybe [indiscernible] at the end of the day from Brazil and the US, how do you -- how comfortable do you think you are into 2019 on that improvement in terms of cost of risk? Thanks. José Antonio Álvarez Álvarez: The tax rate, as I said, this quarter was 36%, probably for the full year should be a bit lower, probably 35% maybe, in the region, 34%, in this region. So this quarter was particularly high due to -- I mentioned in the presentation to Brazil. And Brazil, there is a -- what they call interest on own funds that this quarter was not applied. And in other quarters, we may have room to apply. And this will reduce a little bit the tax rate that we show this quarter. The cost of risk, particularly you point out to US, Brazil. In US, probably forgot, although Jose mentioned that the seasonality in SCUSA mainly means that the cost of risk in the second quarter tend to be lower due to the fact that there's a tax season in the States where people get rebates, and the recoveries are higher than in other quarters. But overall, we've been, and you see clearly in the SCUSA P&L, increasing the FICO in SCUSA. We did it last year. So the cost of risk -- [indiscernible] also, but the cost of risk is going to be lower, but this quarter was -- is the seasonality play there, while in Brazil, I remain fairly confident that, if we had -- on a like-for-like basis, I feel comfortable with the current cost of risk. I mean like-for-like because changes in the mix have a significant impact, both on NIM and cost of risk. And you saw that we are showing this quarter in a decreasing rate environment an increasing spread due to the fact that the change in mix has been fairly dramatic. If you go back to the beginning of 2017 until now, the change in mix has been seemingly high in Brazil. José Antonio García Cantera: If I may add to that, when we guided you on the impact of lower interest rates on margins, we guided towards lower margins. So when we look at the net of margins cost of risk, the outcome of what we're seeing today is better of what we actually anticipated. So this business is clearly on a net basis more sustainable, more profitable and better in a lower interest rate environment. Sergio Gámez: Thanks, Ignacio. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Andrea Unzueta from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Andrea Unzueta

Analyst

My questions are first on Brazil and the NII. You continue to benefit from an improving loan yield, but you're also benefiting from a funding cost decline. I was wondering that, now that the Selic has stabilized, and assuming it remained stable, is there more room for improvements on that front? And in Spain, along similar lines, your cost of time deposits is at around 27 basis points now. Your peers are between 5 and 10. Considering the 1, 2, 3 accounts and Popular, where do you think that cost can get and when? José Antonio Álvarez Álvarez: Okay. In Brazil, if we have room, well, naturally, the spreads in Brazil, as you know, are relatively high. Well, as long as we expect over time with the growth in volumes some -- you asked me for the next three or five years, you should expect some spread reduction. If you ask me for the next quarter, I don't expect -- or for the next two quarters, I don't expect a spread reduction in Brazil, while in the medium term and the long run, I do expect some margin compression in Brazil in the retail arena, while incorporates and CIB, I'm not convinced. Probably, it may be even the opposite. So the difference between spreads in CIB and corporates and retail are too big. And probably, we're going to have some reduction in retail. But going forward, maybe corporates and CIB will have the opposite. The most important thing in Brazil is, on competitive grounds, we are gaining share significantly in the market. And we think our franchise is ready to keep going outperforming the peers in a market that, as you know, profitability is relatively high. We've reached already 20% return on equity there. And we are closing totally, or we overtook some of the top banks there. And we are very close to the top performer there. In Spain, you mentioned the capacity. Naturally, we have flexibility, while we need to keep, as I said, the balance between building loyalty and the cost of funding. And we're going to continue to operate in these grounds, in both directions, reduction or increasing, depending on the environment, depending on the rates, depending on our outlook on when the rates are going to increase in Europe. The top priority is to build on loyalty, to keep the fee income line going in the retail and to build on a customer base resilient and able to produce recurrent revenues for the bank in Spain. Sergio Gámez: Thanks, Andrea. One last question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Marta Sanchez Romero from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Marta Romero

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you very much. Most of my questions have been answered, but I had a follow up on the AFS. I'm sorry if I missed this. How much of your capital still comes from the AFS and realized net gains? What's the average maturity of your Spanish, UK and Brazilian bonds? And given the vulnerability of your capital base to market moves, do you think being at around 11% is the right mark for Santander, particularly considering that some of the future earnings of this portfolio, the capital that may come from this has already been front loaded today? So I'd love to hear your thoughts there. Thank you. José Antonio Álvarez Álvarez: Let me to answer for the second part of the question, and I pass to Jose the first part. In relation with the 11%, we need to put in context this with the fact that we are widely recognized as one of the most diversified banks in the world that where -- when you go through the stress test, we always come at the top. Our consistency and the recurrency of our business is much higher than the majority of our peers. And I do think that we deserve -- we have lower rates, as is shown in the stress test. And we deserve a capital -- with 11%, we are much more than covered. When we analyze the capital on economic basis, not on the regulatory basis, the sales of capital is very large. It's in the region of 20%, 30%. So it's still very large. And this leads us to think that we are in the position where we should be. And I now pass to -- José Antonio García Cantera: At the end of the quarter, the AFS portfolio added 15 basis points to our capital. Right now, it's 20. So just in the month of July, we've recovered 5 basis points. But at the end of June, it was only 15 basis points of total capital that came from the AFS portfolio. Sergio Gámez: Thanks, everyone. I'm afraid we need to leave it here. So obviously, the IR team is at your complete disposal for any follow up any time. So thanks, and see you next one. José Antonio Álvarez Álvarez: Okay. Thank you.