Earnings Labs

Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 5, 2025

$12.04

+0.29%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+2.67%

1 Week

+5.34%

1 Month

+15.66%

vs S&P

+23.65%

Transcript

Raul Sinha

Management

[Call Starts Abruptly] everyone, and thank you for joining Santander's 2024 Results Presentation. I'm Raul Sinha, Global Head of Investor Relations and I'm delighted to be here joining our Executive Chair, Ana Botín; our CEO, Hector Grisi; and our CFO, José García Cantera. Today’s presentation will follow the usual structure for full year presentations. Ana will kick off the presentation by talking about our results and achievements in the context of our strategy. Then Hector will add detail to our financial performance. Finally, Ana will conclude with our outlook for 2025 before opening for Q&A. Ana, over to you. Ana Botín: Thank you, Raul, and welcome, everybody to our full year results presentation. 2024 was another record year, the third consecutive year of record results for Santander. It shows the benefits of our strategy, the resilience of our business model. As we said in 2023, we have entered a new phase of value creation and this has enabled us to deliver or exceed all our key financial targets. Profit reached a record €12.6 billion, supported by both strong revenue growth and customer growth. We grew 8 million customers. And this happened across all our global businesses in a very balanced way. We have continued to invest for the future and we're making excellent progress towards a more simple and more integrated model through one transformation. This has been instrumental in improvements in efficiency by more than 2 percentage points and increasing our profitability RoTE to 16.3%. Our balance sheet remains solid with a strong capital ratio ends the year at an all-time high of 12.8, reflecting our ability to generate capital organically. Finally, we delivered again strong shareholder value creation with TNAV and dividend per share growing by 14%. And by the way, this is in spite of pressure from…

Hector Grisi

Management

Yes. Thank you, Ana. We look at our performance in constant currency, including the impact of Argentina, where a conservative approach to FX was adjusted in Q4. This resulted in a positive impact on NII with a negative offset in other income and cost. Let me start by highlighting our strong top-line performance. We achieved double-digit revenue growth, exceeding the targets we provided at the start of the year and even the ones we upgraded during the year. This was underpinned by sound growth in customer activity across the businesses, while reflecting the benefits of our model. The strong increase was mainly supported by the next things. First, our retail business, which continues to grow at double-digits with good performance in both NII and fees. A record year in CIB up 14% on the back of our investments and good activity levels and 15% revenue growth in Wealth driven by solid commercial activity in private banking and a really good performance of Santander Asset Management and Insurance. Consumer and Payments are also showing very good revenue trends with consumers delivering double-digit growth in fees on both PagoNxt and cards growing. More than 80% of the Group's NII comes from our Retail and Consumer businesses. The Group NIIs grew double-digit in 2024 with NIM of driven by asset repricing and controlled cost of deposits. Over the last few quarters, we have proactively managed our interest rate sensitivity to position our balance sheet for the new outlook on interest rates. In Spain, for example, our NII was flat quarter-over-quarter, partly due to our hedges. And in Brazil, our negative sensitivity to 100 basis points rise in rates is now lower at around €120 million. Going forward, our outlook for 2025, for the Group is similar to what we said in Q3. Excluding…

Raul Sinha

Management

Thank you, Ana. Can we have the first question, please?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. We already have the first question from the line of Ignacio Ulargui from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Ignacio Ulargui

Analyst

Thanks very much for the presentation, and thanks for taking my question. First of all, I just wanted to thank you very much for the improvement in the financial target disclosure and the fact that you are using this RoTE plus AT1s. Just going to the questions, I have two questions today. After the announcement on the extraordinary distributions, just wanted to get further color on the trade-offs that you see between organic and inorganic growth? How excess capital ranks in terms of management priorities in 2025 and 2026, especially in the context of the M&A that we are seeing in the European banking sector? Second thing is, when I just looked at the results of ONE Transformation that is also very good, I just wanted to see how much more the Group's cost to income can improve from here? Thank you very much. Ana Botín: Thank you, Ignacio. So yes, it's important to remind -- and this is not different, but how we are thinking about the capital allocation going forward in the anticipated higher profitability and excess capital. So first of all, our capital allocation framework has, as I said already been a fundamental pillar of our strategy and the results we're delivering and we have been very disciplined and strict. So first, we prioritize profitable organic growth, investments across our businesses. We see ourselves as a compounder. So again, this organic growth creates a compounding effect on earnings, returns, book value and distributions. Second, this is followed, of course, by ordinary dividends and share buybacks to our shareholders. In terms of inorganic capital deployment, we are very clear that it has to be complementary to our strategic aims and generate attractive financial returns that have to be ahead that surpass those of any organic investments or share…

Hector Grisi

Management

Yes. Thank you, Ana. As Ana has said, I mean, what is very important to understand is ONE Transformation is just starting, okay? Let me provide you a little bit more color on the cost evolution in the quarter by businesses and also the 2025 outlook. First of all, I mean, as you can see, in 2024, cost increased by 4% year-on-year, but in real terms, cost only grew 1%, okay? That's basically thanks to the operating leverage in retail and the cost containment that we have done in consumer despite the investments and growth that we have been able to do. So it's important to say that we are basically changing the engine while flying the plane at the same time. Retail and Consumer represents around 70% of the Group costs were flattish, while the revenue was up 9%. CIB and Wealth that's around 20% of the Group cost and they used to increase by 13%, as I said in the presentation, with positive jobs and showing sustainable fee income growth around 21%. That's basically -- what is doing, the investments we're doing are actually representing much more growth in the businesses. The remaining 10% is Payments, which increased by 8% year-on-year, but that reflects our strategic investments. Let me go directly, I mean, retail and on 2025, we expect cost down versus 2024 in current euros, and we expect to reiterate or improve the guidance that we provided for each business at the last Investor Day. So that's retail cost to income below the early target of less than 42% and flat ex-Argentina, so that our -- that was basically around 39.7%. Consumer cost to income is down, and it's going to be less than 40% and CIB is going to be below 45%. Thank you.

Raul Sinha

Management

Thanks, Hector. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Marta Sanchez from Citi. Please go ahead.

Marta Sanchez

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you very much. My first question is about the UK. When you say that the market is core, does it also specifically apply to the retail bank to the ring-fenced entity? And if that's the case, where do you see sustainable returns in an environment where you have to compete against stronger deposit franchises and new entrants with deep pockets. My second question is on the U.S. You've delivered $1.2 billion this year of net profit, but you're still benefiting from EV tax credits. I think you've mentioned on the call that you expect the U.S. to be the largest contributor to earnings growth in 2025. Could you be a little bit more specific about how much you expect it to contribute, what are the levers and what is the tax return -- sorry, the tax rate assumed? And then just quickly a clarification on capital, the threshold for surplus capital distribution is now 13%. Thank you. Ana Botín: So we're not -- let me answer the last one first. We're not putting a threshold. We've said we will be at 13% by the end of this year. The buybacks will happen in 2025, 2026. I have explained the hierarchy. So it will depend on what organic growth we will have, we're going to be very mindful as we have in terms of the reference being buybacks for shareholders, organic growth, supporting our franchise. It's hard to be so precise. We don't have a crystal ball. What we do have is a track record that shows that in challenging times, we do better than our peers. We are confident that we can deliver the Group targets that we just said. So let me just UK, U.S. So in terms of the UK, first is that the outlook…

Marta Sanchez

Analyst

A specific question on taxes. Ana Botín: Taxes, yes, either Hector or Jose on taxes.

Hector Grisi

Management

Let me just complement a little bit, I mean, what Ana was saying. I mean, in the UK, just to give you an idea in terms of you were asking revenue is going to be up mid-single-digits, and we expect a lot of around 11%, okay? I'm talking in constant. We have no view on FX at this point, okay? It's very important also to tell you that, I mean, we have 40 million clients in the UK. We're starting to sell different products to them. As Ana said, we have a basically mortgage franchise over there, but we're starting doing some other businesses with them. We're starting to do credit cards, cards are starting to grow. It's the second largest market in the world. So we'll start to cross-sell into that client base. And that basically is helping us out to have a much better franchise and we have the capabilities to do it because we have a business at scale that allow us to do so. In terms of the U.S. just give you, I mean, in terms of guidance that you were asking, I mean, we see revenue up high-single-digit, okay? And accounting RoTE will be around circa 10%. If you adjust the RoTE because of the excess capital that we have, we're talking about 14%. So it's quite good. And in regards of what the tax -- on the tax, I understand, I mean, I explained to you very well the situation due to the fact that what we're doing in terms of leasing, we're not really going to find out exactly the numbers until we see how we're going to allocate that one throughout the year, so. Ana Botín: Yes.

Hector Grisi

Management

Okay, all right. Thank you.

Raul Sinha

Management

Thanks. Thanks, Marta. Can we have the next question, please?

Operator

Operator

Next question from the line of Francisco Riquel from Alantra. Please go ahead.

Francisco Riquel

Analyst

Yes. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on capital. I wanted to ask you about the 13% CET1 target for 2025. If that 13% already includes any special share buyback beyond the ordinary distributions that we should expect in 2025 or if the special share buybacks will be back-end loaded to 2026. And in this context, I wonder if you can guide us on the organic generation that we should expect in 2025, particularly also on the plans for risk transfers this year? And also on any negative regulatory impacts, Basel IV other impacts, DTAs in Brazil, et cetera. And my second question is about Brazil. How do you see your business hoping in a higher Selic environment? What is your appetite for loan growth? How big can squeeze on margins from the higher rates, how sensitive the cost of risk to the Selic and you can update also on your transformation plans here in this market? Thank you. Ana Botín: So on capital, let me just give you a high level and then José maybe can give you more detail, or Hector. But let me just reiterate. We will distribute excess capital and our capital hierarchy is what we have -- what I said earlier. Organic growth, distributions, discipline in inorganic and extraordinary over those times. So again, we have a lot of organic opportunity that is profitable. We cannot know how much of that is going to happen. Point number two, we are not changing our target for capital. It will remain above 12%. Our operating range will be between 12% to 13% and the excess buybacks over the ordinary buyback and cash distributions will be during 2025 and 2026. We are not going to be more precise than that. Again, go back to…

Raul Sinha

Management

We have the next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Chris Hallam

Analyst

Yes. Thank you for taking my questions. First of all, Ana, I appreciate the color you gave earlier on the strategy in the U.S. When you see and hear the messaging around potentially a more accommodating regulatory backdrop in that market, how does that impact the business in the U.S.? And where does that create opportunities? And how could that potentially impact your strategy in the U.S., if at all? And then, secondly, perhaps more of a modeling question. Looking at Q4, there was a higher-than-usual level of other gains and losses and provisioning. And I think the full year number of €4.8 billion was up significantly year-over-year. Can you just walk through what is it in that line? And how much of that is investment into future efficiency improvements, restructuring, et cetera? And where should that line item trend across 2025 and 2026? Thank you. Ana Botín: Okay. So on the U.S., I've said that many times, operating context matters. So yes, other things equal, if the operating context improves in the U.S., that will naturally drive better returns, other things equal vis-à-vis other regions. So we cannot be too specific right now. We really don't know what's going to happen, but everybody and ourselves included is anticipating a better operating context for banks in the United States, which again, other things equal, should drive over time, at least, increased capital allocation, as I've said before, I mean, our investment in the U.S. has always and even more now since we are in a growth mode, leverage the Group. If on top of that, we get a better environment, we should do better. And that's what I said before; the U.S. asset geography will be one of the biggest upsides in our P&L without being too specific. But I…

Hector Grisi

Management

Sure, Ana. I mean, to complete what Ana said in 2024, the following one-offs events impacted our P&L especially. I mean in Q1 2024, we had a higher temporary levy on the revenue margin in Spain, that's €335 million. In Q2 2024, I mean the write-down that she was explaining about PagoNxt, in Q3, €70 million related to the Fundacion, and in Q4 2024, that's €260 million provision taken for the situation with the motor in the UK. So all in all, that's basically it, and we don't expect any of those to basically repeat themselves, maybe just, I mean, in terms of the tax levy in Spain that we will be basically being impacted on the first quarter of this year.

Raul Sinha

Management

Thanks very much, Hector. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Alvaro Serrano

Analyst

Hi, good morning. I've got a couple of follow-ups on one on capital and another one on the global platforms. On capital, there's a sort of a trend globally seems like around deregulation. I just wanted to pick your brain, Ana, maybe on how do you think that's going to manifest itself for Santander because ultimately, I heard cross guiding for another close to 60 basis points capital headwinds this year, similar to last year. Obviously, there was a press report earlier this week where you've taken the ECB to court [ph] around the DTAs in Brazil. So can you maybe sort of give us your latest thoughts on how regulators are going to treat the banks going forward? And in particular, how do you see that playing out for Santander? And second, on platforms on your Consumer and Retail, I think your cost to income is now 40%. I've heard your comments during the call; could you maybe walk us through which countries still need to roll out Gravity from here? And when we think about how low are those costs and all those -- that cost income can go, who do you benchmark yourself against. Can you give us an idea of how good it can get, thank you, medium-term, it doesn't have to -- I heard your targets for this year. Thank you. Ana Botín: So Alvaro that is a tricky question. You're asking me what the regulators are going to do. I wish I knew. But I would say that for the first time in 10 years, the probability, and I've said it publicly, I've said it in many different occasions in recent meetings, including, I think, in yours, I think, first, Europe has built €300 billion in capital, something like this over the banks last…

Hector Grisi

Management

Alvaro, just really quickly, I mean, as Ana was saying, just Retail and Consumer and are the ones that are the most important ones. I mean in terms of cost to income, Retail and Consumer is going to be around flat in terms of cost to income. And Consumer basically is going to be down low-single-digits, okay? So that's what we are seeing for 2025. Thank you.

Raul Sinha

Management

Thanks very much, Alvaro. We have the next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Andrea Filtri from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Andrea Filtri

Analyst

Thank you for taking my questions and I'll start with your guidance. Consensus is over €1 billion behind your minimum guidance for 2025 profits. Do you see further growth in 2026 over 2025? And where is consensus too conservative from your standpoint? Second question is on ONE Transformation. A bit of a follow-up to what Alvaro just asked. But where are the next geographies you're planning to roll the plan out to? And given you're now looking at absolute numbers, how much do you think ONE Transformation will save in absolute euro billion at full phasing? And final, in capital, 13% CET1 is what we hoped to convince the market on Santander's capital strength. I hear you on the maintaining 12% to 13% operating level. But are you amending the 10 to 15 basis points organic CET1 client per quarter, which was based on a much lower profitability and approach to risk-weighted assets. And José, can you please make explicit what sort of regulatory hurdles we are expecting 40 basis points given you said they will be similar to 2024? Thank you. Ana Botín: So the answer to your first question, without being very specific on numbers is we will grow our bottom line and we will grow our profitability in 2025. And I think I can say that our expectation is this will continue in 2026, 2027. You will get a lot more detail in our next Investor Day, which we expect to do towards the end of this year or beginning of next year. The model still has a lot of upside. As I've said today, we're only scratching the surface of our potential as a Group in a context that we do anticipate and we count would be volatile more challenging, we are saying we will grow…

Hector Grisi

Management

Thank you, Andrea. Just to complement to what Ana was saying. There's three very important points, and I'm going to be very brief. I mean, first of all, we're becoming the number one bank to our customers. That's basically the most important change of the model. That's why you see fees growing. And if you analyze country by country, you're going to see -- for example, in Retail, this is the biggest change that -- and that's why we basically guiding you mid-high single-digit growth in terms of fees, okay? That's a change of the model. Remember that also change of the model is not just a platforms is basically simplification, which is helping us and is dropping the amount of products. Now we just offered more than 50 products to our customers, we still have a lot of the backlog, but we're automatizing all of that. So automation is another very important part. And then, the deployment of the platforms where, for example, we finished the deployment of OneApp, all of Europe. You see the results of NPS on the UK. Now it's coming down to Brazil. Mid-part of the year is going to be in Mexico and then it's coming down to Chile and Argentina. And that you're going to be basically see the results, which will improve, first of all, again, being number one bank to our customers; and second, the fee generations. Thank you.

Raul Sinha

Management

Thanks very much, Hector. We have the next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Next question from the line of Cecilia Romero from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Cecilia Romero

Analyst

Thank you very much for taking my question and congratulations on the results. My first one is in your growth strategy. Where do you see the most significant opportunities for expansion and growth over the next two years geographically, you talked about the U.S., but is there any other countries where you see the bank gaining in scale for example, Mexico? Also, I wanted to ask you on the quarter in regards to the very different dynamics that we're seeing in Portugal and Spain NII. Spain was flat and Portugal at minus 11%. Could you explain why such a divergent trend? And is this what we're going to see in 2025, a resilient NII in Spain and NII in Portugal following double-digit. And could you please let us know what your rate assumption is in this guidance? Thank you. Ana Botín: So in terms of growth for the next couple of years, and again, we are looking at this by global businesses. So -- and I will give you detail by country within the global business. In terms of growth, and this is important. Retail will not grow much in the next year. 2026, we'll see what happens to growth and revenues. We are putting much more emphasis at least for now on profitability. We've grown 8 million customers. We're growing the top-line, not just because of the euro rates benefit this year, but also because 8 million customers is a lot of customers. So again, given the context, our top-line in Retail will not grow as much in 2025. Within that, there will be differences as I've said. If you look at -- within Retail, what are the countries that will grow more or less, I mean, obviously, in the euro area will grow less because of the impact,…

Raul Sinha

Management

Thanks very much, José. We have the next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Next question from the line of Carlos Peixoto from CaixaBank. Please go ahead.

Carlos Peixoto

Analyst

Yes. Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I'll shift the question a bit to Mexico. So you had a relatively good performance in the quarter. And I was wondering how do you see -- how do you expect evolution in terms of loan volumes and also in NII into 2025? And whether you have any sensitivity to any impacts that potential tariffs, which were not delayed for a month, but let's see what happens there. Well, basically, your views on how could that affect overall activity in the country, particularly in the global various CIB business in Mexico, which by the way, if you could tell us how much it accounts for Mexico contribution to be interesting. And then, just as a small clarification on the capital organic generation that you mentioned before, the 10 basis points to 15 basis points per quarter. I just wanted to understand if that's already net generation from -- net of the regulatory impact, the 60 basis points you mentioned? Or is that before the regulatory impact? Thank you very much. Ana Botín: So again, let me just reiterate, and I'll get to Mexico in a minute, but we have significant business and geographic diversification. Mexico, like other countries is roughly 50%, I think probably between 45% to 55% is Retail and the percentage of revenue and roughly also bottom line of Mexico when Retail is 12% and Mexico is around 15% of the total. So again, not a huge contribution on Retail, which is going to be the one most sensitive to volumes. Half of our business, and I'll let Hector go into that in more detail is with Corporates and Affluent. We have a lot of high-quality business in Mexico. Actually, the biggest opportunity is in the Retail, i.e., in the mass market. We have also launched Openbank there to take advantage of that. And we have been very prudent in terms of our lending much more than other peers we have focused over the last few months actually on a higher quality segment. So clearly, the Mexican economy could be more affected than others, but it should not have a significant impact on our expected delivery. So maybe you want to give a bit more color on Mexico?

Hector Grisi

Management

I think you explained it very well, Ana. I mean, the fact of the matter is that we have been, I would say, prudent given the environment in Mexico we've been growing a lot less than our competitors because we believe that it was important to be conservative. We are very much concentrated on going towards the part of the portfolio that has collateral. We've been concentrated a lot more on auto loans on mortgages and will be decreasing. Even though we have been growing in Consumer, not as much as the rest of the market. So I basically very comfortable of what are we doing there. And I believe that the guidance that I can give you, given that we are including a mild trade war, we're talking about Mexico in terms of revenue, up high-single digits, okay? And in terms of RoTE between around 20% to 22%, again, is in constant no view on FX, okay? Thank you. José GarcíaCantera: It's pre-regulatory charges.

Raul Sinha

Management

Thanks very much, José. Can we have the next question, please?

Operator

Operator

Next question from the line of Sofie Peterzens from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Sofie Peterzens

Analyst

Yes. Hi, this is Sofie from JPMorgan. Thanks for taking my questions. So just going back to the guidance, I know you have now given guidance for net interest income in Spain, but it will be down 5% to 6% if rates are 2%. You also gave guidance for the UK and Mexico. But with the third quarter results, you gave guidance kind of on a country-by-country level for net interest income. Would that be possible to also get now for 2025? And then, my second question would be, I know you've mentioned that UK is the core part of Santander, but and you focus on organic growth. But if you could kind of talk about M&A how you view your peers that are heavily involved in M&A? Do you think that will change the European banking landscape and how do you see Santander better positioned in a landscape where you have more M&A and how will you kind of evaluate any opportunities that arise potentially in Portugal, potentially elsewhere in Europe. So if you could comment on this. Thank you. Ana Botín: So we're going to give -- just on your first question, thank you. We are not going to give detailed NII by country. We're going to give most of the countries, and José can explain that. I'd like to go back to what we are committing and it's on the last slide or I think the last slide in the presentation. Revenues in euros €62 billion, roughly the same as this year, mid-high single-digit growth in fees. And then by divisions, I think we have given also and I think Hector has mentioned, retail, which is 50% of the group flat revenues and more or less flat returns, consumer. Again, mostly 90% of that is Europe and…

Raul Sinha

Management

Can we have the next question, please?

Operator

Operator

Next question from the line of Antonio Reale from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Antonio Reale

Analyst

Hi, good morning. It’s Antonio from Bank of America. Just two questions for me, please. So you’ve introduced this new commitment to pay €10 billion buybacks over 2025 and 2026. You talked about shifting capital within the group rather than asset sales, and this has been an important part of your strategy. Maybe can you talk a little bit more about that point to give us a sense of the flexibility that you retain to shift capital across the group, meet your profit guidance and still achieve the buyback commitment should the macro picture worsen just to get a sense of the flexibility that you retain there on the capital optimization. And the second point, you’ve mentioned the group is highly diversified. You’ve given, I think, a very good overview of your expectations for 2025 across products. Can I just go back to Brazil? And could you share the same for the region. It’s a relatively large share of your group and it’s a market focus region, particularly dig more into the link between net interest margins, loan origination and affordability, ultimately reflecting cost of risk for Brazil and maybe the measures that you’ve put in place at your local unit to go through the cycling cycle, please. Thank you. Ana Botín: So I mean, just to give you some color on organic capital across the group. So we started working on this 10 years ago. We didn’t have the tools to manage regulatory capital. We’re always very good at managing economic capital. Today, we have a very dynamic capital allocation strategy. So we shift on a weekly basis where we put more or less capital, depending on the opportunities. Of course there’s a franchise consideration. I mean, why would we write lots of mortgages in Spain below 2% when…

Hector Grisi

Management

22%. Ana Botín: No, Retail Brazil is 23% of retail -- of the group, right? Half of the top line in the business of Brazil is non-retail, roughly. And that is not sensitive to rates. Obviously, cost of risk matters, but that is something which we’ve also been diversifying. So again, Brazil should do about the same as this year in terms of profitability with higher revenues and the 50% that is not retail, which is not rate sensitive, being one of the drivers in Brazil this year.

Hector Grisi

Management

Just to complement what Ana said, okay, it’s very important that Brazil is the place that you can see where we’re changing the model. In terms of NII, being -- I mean, being not the driver, but actually being fees the driver in the sense that we’re doing things, okay? Deposit and fees, it’s exactly what we’re concentrated on. We have changed the mix of the portfolio. This base Mexico, basically making us most resilient to rates and has reduced the sensitivity to higher rates through the hedging. We are 100% hedged for 2025 on the P&L in Brazil. So it’s very important that you know that, okay? It’s also important to tell you that the current yield curve stepping we have a similar smaller impact than previously expected, as I told you, and as of December, a 100 basis point upward move on the selling has an impact of around €120 million of NII. So we’re pretty much hedged all the structure is basically in place. And we believe that on credit quality, even though we remain vigilant over the past few years [indiscernible] has grown lending is lower than peers, and we have tightening the underwriting criteria. So the current economic forecast for GDP and growth to slow, but we remain positive during the year. On cost of risk in an adverse case scenario, due to changes in the portfolio. We see the cost of risk to perform marginally weaker than in 2024, but really not changing the outlook for the overall cost of the risk. This is exactly going back to what Ana was saying. It doesn’t impact the rest of the group, it’s quite small, and it doesn’t change overall picture. Diversification is the essence in the group.

Raul Sinha

Management

Thanks very much, Hector. Since we’re running out of time, can we take the last two questions, please? And the next question, please?

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Britta Schmidt from Autonomous. Please go ahead.

Britta Schmidt

Analyst

Yes. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Just to make sure that we interpret the payout guidance correctly in timing, I guess, is relevant here. You guide to a 13% CET1 ratio after 50% ordinary payouts and 60 basis points of regulatory headwinds. And you would consider dropping below that with excess distribution in 2025, but not to go below 12.5% pro forma. And then the second question is just on Brazil again, on the DTA or DTCs rather, why has the ECB now changed its view on this? Has anything been recorded in the Q4 CET1? And what is the maximum remaining risk here in an outpost decision? Or is the decisions maintained? Thank you. Ana Botín: Okay. So let me just be clear. We will not be below 13% this year. Our intention is to operate at 13%. But we are leaving ourselves flexibility depending on the capital hierarchy, I described, organic profitable growth, which we’re very keen to make sure we take advantage of distributions, making sure that any inorganic, which we’re not counting on for any of the distributions, everything we’re saying is organic growth, organic distributions, et cetera. Being more than buybacks, et cetera. So again, we are aiming to be at 13% and have some flexibility going forward between the 12% and 13%, being always above 12%, which is where we are. In terms of the -- I’ll let Jose answer the one on the DTAs. The reason we are contesting this is because we believe that level playing field, an asset, which in Brazil is valid, full claim against the government where other banks operating in the country, U.S. or local banks have a different treatment. We think that, that does not make sense. It’s a question of principle. The effect is not going to be much up or down. Jose? José García Cantera: No. The deduction of Brazilian monetizable DTAs from capital was already taken in the fourth quarter. So if this ruling is not in favor, basically maintains ECB’s interpretation, there will not be impact. There will be no impact on capital.

Raul Sinha

Management

Thanks very much, José. Very clear. Can we have the last question, please?

Operator

Operator

Last question from the line Ignacio Cerezo from UBS. Please go ahead.

Ignacio Cerezo

Analyst

Hey, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I’ve got two on the asset mobilization efforts. The first one is if you can give us some detail on the breakdown of those measures, both from a geographical point of view in terms of the loan books, basically, you’re using to accelerate capital optimization. And the second question is, if you have any internal limits in terms of how much you can do per annum? And if you can see any regulatory constraints in terms of amounts actually you can do at some point in the future? Thank you.

Jose Garcia Cantera

Analyst

Thank you, Ignacio. The -- around a third of what we do is hedges, one-third is asset disposals and a third more or less is SRTs is synthetic securitizations. We do this in all geographies. Obviously, synthetic securitizations is mostly in developed economies in hard currency, but the other strategies we are doing in all geographies. As long as we are not the best tenors, the best holders of some of the assets we originate, and someone is willing to buy these assets below our cost of capital, we will to -- we will continue mobilizing the assets. Last year, the average cost of equity at which we mobilize the assets was around 8% compared with our cost of capital of whatever, 14% or 15% or whatever. So as long as that’s the case, we will continue to mobilize the assets. Now going forward, as we optimize the back book, most mobilization will be related to the front book. So you should expect to see a gradual reduction in the total amount because it will be most related to front book, not so much as it’s been the case so far to the back book.

Raul Sinha

Management

Thanks very much, Jose. With that, we are at the end of the Q&A session. I will hand back to Ana to conclude. Ana Botín: So thank you so much, Raul. Thank you, everybody. I just want to reiterate, we’re only scratching the surface of our potential as a group. We believe 2025 will be more challenging, will be volatile. We are preparing for things to be exciting even rocky maybe at times this year. And we are very confident that our strategy is working, that our model is going to mean that we are going to do better than peers this year in what -- again, we know is not going to be an easy year. So thank you again, and see you soon.

Raul Sinha

Management

This completes our call. We look forward to catching up with all of you in our usual road shows, and we will reach out to anybody who didn’t answer, managed to ask a question separately offline as well. Thanks very much.