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Safe Bulkers, Inc. (SB)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Mon, Oct 31, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Safe Bulkers Conference Call to discuss the Third Quarter 2016 Financial Results. Today we have with us from Safe Bulkers, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Polys Hajioannou, President Dr. Loukas Barmparis, Chief Financial Officer Konstantinos Adamopoulos, and Chief Operating Officer Iaonnis Foteinos. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation follow-up by question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Following this conference call, if you need any further information on the conference call or on the presentation, please contact Capital Link at 212-661-7566. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today. Before we begin, please note that this presentation contains forward-looking statements as defined in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, concerning future events, the company’s growth strategy and measures to implement such strategy, including expected vessel acquisitions and entering into further time charters. Words such as expects, intends, plans, believes, anticipates, hopes, estimates, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Although the company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. These statements involve known and unknown risks and are based upon a number of assumptions and estimates which are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of the company. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include but are not limited to changes in the demand for dry bulk vessels, competitive factors in the market in which the Company operates, risks associated with operations outside the United States, and other factors listed from time to time in the company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company expressly disclaims any obligations or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the company’s expectations with respect thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any statement is based. And I now pass the floor to Dr. Barmparis. Please go ahead, sir.

Loukas Barmparis

Analyst

Good morning. I’m Loukas Barmparis, President of Safe Bulkers. Welcome to our conference call and webcast to discuss the financial results for the third quarter of 2016. Let's start our presentation from the development in our industry. The charter market has somewhat recovered since the beginning of the year and there is shown in slide 3, $7,200 per day for Panamax and $10,500 day for Capes while the year-to-date average is substantially lower $4,700 for Panamax and $5,200 Cape. Asset values as shown in slide 4 have also somewhat recovered. A five year old Cape cost now about $23 million compared to the low of $21 million earlier this year. And the five year old Panamax is now at about $14 million compared to $11.1 million low earlier this year. However, they remain close to the historical lows. In Slide 5, we see information about the net fleet change in Capes and Panamax. It seems that the due to scrapping a balance is gradually being achieved. The important point in slide 6 is that excessive orderbook of the past year is substantially reduced after 2017. Some delays, delayed deliveries from past orderbook will be delivered in 2018 and 2019 but they are not new orders. As a result, one of one scrapping affect to border vessels were never -- their market is very low, two, the additional effect of installation of ballast water treatment plant in all vessels after 2017 and please note that about 20% of the Panamax fleet is more than 15 years old and should install at ballast water treatment plant at least when they reach the fourth special survey within the next five years, And three, the general financing constitutional new orders so we believe that orderbook is not expected to grow. Achieving a stable fleet…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee from Citi. Please ask your question.

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst

Thanks and good afternoon, guys. Wanted to ask first about some of the vessels that you -- new building vessels that you no longer contracted for, when we think about the cycle, I guess I just wanted to get a sense of are these vessels that we think specifically could come back at some point? Obviously you guys have done good job over the last year or so adjusting the debt schedule, the CapEx schedule. And when we think about these ships to the extent that in the next several years we see the beginning of a potential cycle these are kind of ships that would be sort of first in line potentially to come back to the fleet. I just wanted to get a rough sense of sort of the related nature of Polys I think in your company that owns these now [Technical Difficulty] how that might work going forward?

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

Yes. To reply this question one where a new cycle will start is basic to take decisions reinvest surplus liquidity most likely on young ships like up to five years old. At the point -- at this point of time I mean we have to preserve liquidity because despite we believe a new cycle could start in 2018, there is no guarantee so at this point we have to preserve company's liquidity and when the new cycle starts, so of course our intent to invest in reasonable priced assets not necessarily resale but up to five years old.

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst

Okay. And with regards to the last two newbuilds, do you think it makes sense to hold on to these or should we maybe consider the potential that these could also be either sold or cancelled out? And I guess I am just trying to get a sense of whether make sense to hold any of newbuilds exposure as it stand to capital exposure going forward over the course of the next year and half or so just given where rates are?

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

The one that 2017 one is already agreed in a sale and lease back transaction so it is likely being sold with the company right to have precious option on it after year two and the other one in 2018 already we have an investor to participate 50% in the equity of that ship. So it's no planning to add new debt on that vessel. So it's good assumption to say that these two ships will be kept in the fleet. This is a planning as of now.

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst

Any prospect for turns in the time charter or debts to the time charter market, obviously where rates are we are not expecting you guys to lock-in for extended period at extraordinarily low rate but what is sort of the dynamic we chartering in the market as it stands today. I mean are we seeing any signs of life, any signs of interest there just kind of curios do you have that playing out?

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

Yes, look, well the last fixture we have done the last 20-30 days in the spot market, they all start with a nine so despite the BPI of $7,300 our fleet being more modern and acquaint some of them bigger than Panamax like Post Panamax or Kamsarmax who are receiving figures in the nine in the spot market between 9 and high 9. So this -- it is a good sign. On the other hand we are not seeing many fixtures on period 6 to 12 months simply because charter, they are holding back and they are talking very low level still in the seven or one year period. We feel this is a bit short and this is not company's -- to company's level, we prefer to get the extra revenue and wait little bit longer before we start committing ships to 6 or 12 months period. I think that the majority of good charters are holding back still up at the moment. I think November; we should start seeing things developing on that front.

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate that. And then last question just kind of curious you shared the OpEx and G&A numbers and they are certainly down through the first nine months on year-over-year basis, I look at the G&A side of it and it looks like you maybe had about 4% inflation in those numbers on nine months basis. Can you give us some sense and maybe how -- what's driving the inflation in that number and is your ability to kind of get that piece under control too? I know it is a smaller of the two piece but it looks like you have sort of on target for about a $2 million increase on G&A obviously with cash flow constraint I guess every sort of dollar count. Just kind of get senses what's driving the 4% inflation in that number.

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

Yes, look, it is a good question. We were wondering the same and I guess at difficult times you have to employ more fees with all people lawyers all these people, I mean there is a more work being done in the office and it is a small increase, I mean $40, I mean our main focus is within this $3,600 or $3,700 of running expenses to include all our drydocking cost and allow our other expenses of running the ships. I mean the company is fully focused on keeping this number because it is a never ever ending you know work managed to keep this number over a period of time and no charge two or three quarters. So other than 4% these things associated I guess with the running the various things going on you've seen sale in lease back transaction, you've seen other things like preferred equity deal so this involved a lot of people and lot of bills coming on that front.

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst

Okay. So is it fair to say that maybe if we go through a period where you kind of the fleet and the newbuilds where you need them you kind of have the financing laid out for what you need going forward maybe that number could come in a little bit, is that sort of the way to think about it?

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

It should. I mean the company fights for every dollar. So I mean we are the last ones to pay big bids without hard negotiation.

Chris Wetherbee

Analyst

Yes. That's fair. You guys have good track record for that historically. All right, guys. Well, thank you very much for time. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Magnus Fyhr from Seaport Global. Please ask your question.

Magnus Fyhr

Analyst

Yes. Hi. Just a quick question on chartering strategy going forward. You have about 28% locked for 2017. How do you think about that going forward? What should we expect kind of mix once we get into next year?

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

Look, we will start shifting into little bit of period fixing if rates pick up in that period fixing, if there is a $2,000 gap between the spot market and the period market, we still prefer to work the spot market because it is fixed, rather fixed so you are gathering the revenue. So we need to see rate above $8,000 on period fixture to start locking in period fixture. I think at the moment only second rate in charter is up or they have to pay the extra dollar. The good charter, they are still holding for the bit lower number which I think it's the company should not be fixing those lower numbers yet but I think maybe things will start moving in November on the period front.

Magnus Fyhr

Analyst

And also the ships are $6,000 to $8,000 a day, anything -- I mean that sort of Kypros Sky and Venus Heritage were $12,000 and $10,000 respectively. Were these signed recently? Can you provide some color on those two fixtures?

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

Yes. These are mostly ships that we are positioning in the Atlantic and this is trip out which was in the higher figures. So it is reach being done in a front whole base, that's why they are higher than the others. As I tell you right now we are fixing ships in the Pacific in round voyage spaces in the nine so this is a good sign because that was around 7 and 7.5 above the month ago. So there is an improvement on the spot market, the company is outperforming the BPI which is $7,300 because the ships are little bit larger than Panamax and eco consumption and modern fleet. So if you see higher numbers it means they are mostly on front whole reach that's why they are at $10,000 or $12,000.

Magnus Fyhr

Analyst

Thanks. And lastly just in your presentation you mentioned the coal market has surprised somewhat over the last couple of months. Do you see any changes now I think there is talks about restarting some of these mines that have been phased out which could reverse I guess coal imports, you guys seen the signs there yet or is it too early

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

We don't see signs but it should happen because when the coal reaches say $100 per ton you should expect this will start and it will take time. I mean mines -- they are about close to reopen, the coal to take over from imports, it will take some time but we all follow the commodity price and then out of it we understand what is going to happen with the movement of coal. The more the commodity rises the more likely piece that certain mines will start reproducing. But for the time being it looks like there is decent coal movement not only from China which is increasing but also in India and South East Asia. So this is helping a lot of Panamax market.

Magnus Fyhr

Analyst

Yes. And do you think talking about India, do you think they are I guess the government have made noise there about phasing out imports I mean I guess is that something you would expect here or do you see any other signs in the market to the contrary?

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

Look, India I think for the next five years it will big on coal imports. I don't think I mean the central decisions take time in India to be implemented and it is a vast country and the infrastructure is not as great as in China. So it will take time. I think India is a very, very important market for Panamax and Post Panamax and I don't see their coal imports being reduced in the next five years. So the contrary I see small increase in their import for next five years.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Fotis Giannakoulis from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Yes. Hi, gentlemen. And thank you. Polys, I want to follow up on the question of Magnus about coal trade and you indicated on slide 10 that the decline of domestic production and closure of number of Chinese coal mine. Putting aside the potential as for the next few months of China to bring the prices down, where do you expect the coal imports kind of grow as a result of this closure of mines over the next five years from the kind of 60 million tons that they are today?

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

Look, we cannot be specific with numbers and I mean we always comp that the data always surprises us so we cannot be -- I mean cannot have prediction of where the imports will be, where they will reach. I think the higher the commodities go so the more is expected to see that there is will be domestic production. On the other hand we have to remember that the imports of China all is only a very, very small percentage of what they actually consume. And again we don't know how the central government will play in future. I mean so it is very difficult to make predictions on what will be the imports of China in coal.

Loukas Barmparis

Analyst

What I think important is here that China depends greatly on coal and the 74% of the production of electricity comes from coal. And only 5% is imported. So whatever happens here I think the overall trade to China will continue to be strong in the next following years.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

I want to follow up a little bit and ask you if coal is the bigger while --for the dry bulk market in Europe, how important is going to be the steel trade, the steel production in China and iron ore import, where do you see these imports growing and if the recovery comes and the stronger demand for dry bulk vessels comp, is it more depended on the decline of coal production and higher import or do you think that there is further room for iron ore import to increase driven by the increasing steel production?

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

Look, the iron ore is very important and because this is what will keep the big ships up and in order for Panamax and Post Panamax to enjoy decent market, we definitely need cape size market to be higher. I don't think that we can -- I mean we wouldn't expect iron ore imports into China to be reducing in the next couple of years. But on the other hand I think that will drive the market is will be the balancing between supply and demand that is well known to most of our -- at least on numbers, it is going to happen sometime in 2018. So I mean when we get rid of the last year of the orderbook which is 2017, I think that will be the most critical and not if China imports 20 million more or less of iron ore in a year. I still believe they will be importing around the same number of million tons in the 2017 like in 2016 and to the year following. But I think that the market will benefit because of the lack of any new ships entering the market after 2018, double of course would be aging of the fleet which means that certain ships will be going to the scrap yard. And the implementation of all these new regulations that we all read about. So to be honest with you the iron ore important is important but and we don't need a great movement or and above the current levels to see better market. If we keep steady and we keep of the same numbers and so long the orderbook stays flat, this will dictate the market.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

And one last question about the demolition activity. We have seen that scrapping has significantly declined with the improvement of charter rate, if based on the classical numbers the last four months is quarter of where it was the previous four months. How do you see scrapping developing and then also if you can comment on the situation of the lending market if you see more pressure from lenders to the weaker ship owners that could potentially result in a higher scrapping.

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

Look, scrapping of course has slowed down in the summer month because of the monsoon season. So it was irrelevant of the freight market but after September that we expect scrapping in bad market to be resumed. This was not happening because we have been increased -- see increasing levels on the Panamax from $5,000 to $7,000-$8,000 a day and even more on the cape size $12,000 -$14,000 a day on the spot market. So everyone is holding back on their ships to work a few good porters and postpone the scrapping to a later date. But of course the fleet is aging and you cannot play with time and even if you have an old ship and you can keep it for another six months there will come a point of time that you will need to scrap that. Now regarding the second part of the question on the -

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

On the banks and the lending activities --

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

The lending, yes, on the banks I think the situation is getting tighter every quarter. We see banks are more skeptical, they are under test by European Central Bank and it is not only the weaker owners and the smaller owners who have the problem which will have the problem, also the bigger companies have less options these days as far as financing is concerned simply because banks have lost money from shipping in the last year or so. And they have many nonperforming sectors like containership and other sectors keeping up them at the same time. So I expecting to get tighter on the lending and this can only be good on the long term for the prosperity of the market that they will not be speculative ordering should take market keeps improving. So this is bad thing initially but a good thing in the end. So I think it's getting tighter. Of course this we've been saying the last year also but I think going forward the next three or four quarters we will see bigger restriction by banks and less appetite to lend money.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Do you see banks taking more action because we haven't seen arrest of vessels or forced sales at least not in public at this point? Do you think that there is a risk of wider push from the banks towards the weaker owners could result in mass sales?

Polys Hajioannou

Analyst

Look, there cannot be massive action but there will be some action. On the other hand as the market slightly improving, banks are holding back and they are not taking immediate actions in that front -- of this moment. But I think overall they will be selectively some action if on the other side there is no signs of performance or signs of operational or lack of ability to cooperate then banks will start moving on to certain launch but I think that the banks in general under more scrutiny and this in the long run is good for the market.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There seems to be no further questions. Please continue.

Loukas Barmparis

Analyst

So thank you very much for attending this presentation. And we would like to thank you and looking forward to discuss again with you in our next quarter result presentation. Thank you to all.

Operator

Operator

That is concludes our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.