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Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 8, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, thank you for standing by ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Star Bulk Carriers Conference Call on the Second Quarter 2019 Financial Results. We have with us Mr. Petros Pappas, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Hamish Norton, President; Mr. Simos Spyrou and Mr. Christos Begleris, Co-Chief Financial Officers of the company. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I must advise the conference is being recorded today. And we now pass the floor to one of your speakers, Mr. Begleris. Please go ahead, sir.

Christos Begleris

Analyst

Thank you, operator. I am Christos Begleris, Co-Chief Financial Officer of Star Bulk Carriers, and I would like to welcome you to the Star Bulk Carriers' conference call regarding our financial results for the second quarter of 2019. Before we begin, I kindly ask you to take a moment to read the Safe Harbor statement on slide number two of our presentation. Let us now turn to slide number three of the presentations for a summary of our second quarter 2019 financial highlights. In the three months ending June 30, 2019, TCE revenues amounted to $92.7 million, 1.2% higher than the $91.5 million for the same period in 2019, mostly because of the high number of vessels that we currently own. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter second quarter of 2019 was at $31.2 million versus $52 million in the second quarter of 2018. Adjusted net loss for the second quarter amounted to $20.5 million or $0.22 loss per share versus $13.4 million adjusted net income or $0.21 gain per share in the second quarter of 2018. Our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income figures include an adjustment of $8.4 million for the accelerated dry docking expenses brought forward from 2020 to 2019. Our TCE rate during this quarter was at $10,549 per vessel per day. During the second quarter of 2019, our average daily operating expenses were at $3,939 per vessel per day. As of June 30, we have installed 34 scrubber towers half a week in the Newcastlemax Capesize segment taking advantage of the market weakness in that size during the second quarter. Overall, we have decided to accelerate 2019 the dry dock schedule for the vessels that had to work during 2020 in order to complete works concurrently with the scrubber installations and have no stoppages in…

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Thank you, Christos. Please turn to slide 10 for a brief update of supply. During the first half of 2019 a total of 18.3 million deadweight was delivered and 4.5 million deadweight was sent to demolition for a 13.8 million deadweight or 1.6% net increase in fleet size. Demolition activity as of today stands at 6 million deadweight and has already crossed the full 2018 figures. During the same period, a total of 10.3 million deadweight has been reported by Clarkson's as firm orders and an additional 2 million deadweight has been identified as LOIs or options. The order book currently stands between 11% and 12.5% of the fleet. The Supramax order book stands at just 8.8% of the fleet. The average stemming speed of the dry bulk fleet during the first half was 11.5 knots, down 0.2 knots to last year, due to combination of low freight rates and relatively high HFO prices. At the same time, scrubber retrofits are accelerating and are expected to absorb approximately 3% of the fleet during the second half of 2019 further constraining vessel supply. During 2019 and 2020, the dry bulk fleet is projected to expand at an annual pace of approximately 2.5%. However, effective supply is unlikely to expand by more than 1.5% per annum, due to the off hires related to scrubber installations and tank cleanings at the end of 2019, and then incentive to slow steam as of January 2020. Let's now turn to slide 11 for a brief update of demand. During the first half of 2019, and up until the start of the second quarter, the dry bulk market was negatively affected by a series of disruptions in iron ore exports owing to Vale’s iron ore mine accident, and Cyclone Veronica in Australia, which came on top…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question. Please go ahead your line is now open.

Chris Snyder

Analyst

Hey this is Chris Snyder from Deutsche Bank, on for Amit. So the first question is on the cape market what seems to be driving market demand and to even more than normal obviously rate spike with Vale ramping and limited to Lanic [ph] supply, but now we’re starting to see rates pull back as supply is returning into the Atlantic. And so my question is have we hit a steady more balanced state here in the low to mid-20,000 levels or do you see more downward pressure over the near-term as supply continues to return into the Atlantic?

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Hi Chris, thank you for the question. We’re very positive about the cape size market at least until the end of this year, with the market got as strong as it did because there was -- there were very few capes in the Atlantic for various reasons like for example that the markets were tough previously and vessels would not dare to balance back to the Atlantic once they were in the Far East. Also bunker prices were relatively high and they were also installing scrubbers and therefore what happened was that as you also said, there were less vessels in the Atlantic and that led to a strong increase in market which pulled the whole market up. Now the vessels going back as we said and the situation is getting easier perhaps, but at the same time there are so many scrubber installations and dry docks taking place at the same time and as the Chinese yards are very, very busy with all these vessels, dry dock times and scrubber installation times are getting longer. So I would not be surprised to see vessels of companies that have not been extremely well prepared and have not fixed forward staying in shipyards for like 60 days. That is going to take a big percentage of the capes out of the market for the next five months I think there are about 60 VLOCs and about 130 capes that still need to install scrubbers. Hence in our view this market is going to be -- continue to be strong during the next five months and we saw it at 30,000 plus and now it's like low-20s. Since yesterday, the market went up by $2,000. So in our view, it's going to be a strong market with ups and downs, but I expect them to be above $20,000 for the near future.

Chris Snyder

Analyst

Appreciate that color. And then just kind of following up on the capes. So obviously, China's steel production growing 10% at the same time, the iron ore imports are falling mid-single digits year-on-year. Dynamic it doesn't feel like it can continue to persist. Have you seen China return to the iron ore import market now that iron ore prices have kind of come down pretty sharply here over the last couple of weeks?

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Well, China has stocks that are about between 118 million to 120 million tons. So they will have to come back into the market. As we were always saying, we believe that this slowdown in demand in Chinese imports was more supply driven than demand driven. So now that Brazil has increased -- is coming back into the market. And we have all these long haul cargos; we believe that the market will be sustained going forward. And I'm basically talking about the next five, six months. As of next year we believe here that the effect of the environmental regulations is going to be relatively strong. And for example, vessels are obliged to burn diesel instead of fuel, which there's a difference between the two between $200 to $300 depending on the place and the time. If vessels all of a sudden have to burn non-scrubber fitted vessels. Diesel oil at $700 per ton it is almost certain that they will slow down the speed. And as we have said before again, 1 knot decrease in speed equals about 7% decrease in supply of vessels, which is huge.

Chris Snyder

Analyst

Yes, thank you for that. And then my second question. So the price of high sulfur fuel oil has spiked in a couple of key regions, most notably Singapore. Is this driven by supply starting to transition ahead of demand? Or there's something maybe more structural that could weigh on the 2020 spreads on scrubber economics.

Petros Pappas

Analyst

We think this is a temporary thing totally temporary. There was also very high barging for some reason in Singapore. I think now it's normalizing. Just to give you an idea, yesterday, we bought fuel oil at I think $250 per ton in the Atlantic. So that doesn't seem to me like it's going up.

Chris Snyder

Analyst

No, not at all. All right, well, I appreciate the time. That's it for me. Thank you.

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will now take our next question. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

Randy Gibbons

Analyst

How are you gentlemen? It's Randy Gibbons from Jeffries. How it’s going?

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Fine, Randy. How are you?

Randy Gibbons

Analyst

Excellent. All right, quick questions for me. So first, there were obviously been some headlines and delays for scrubber retrofits recently. However, you're kind of bucking that trend able to pull forward your dry docking for the retrofit schedule. How is that possible?

Hamish Norton

Analyst

Well, we haven't pulled our scrubber retrofit schedule forward from what our scrubber retrofit schedule started out being. We've managed kind of to keep it at the same pace. What we've done basically is as part of our scrubber retrofit program, we've pulled forward the dry docks on all those ships that were getting scrubbers that had a dry dock scheduled in 2020. We're doing not just the scrubber retrofit in 2019, but the dry dock work in 2019. And we had arrangements with major shipyard group in China. Basically we had a contract in place for a while that's put us in a relatively strong position as the shipyards get more and more congested.

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Just to clarify these dry docks that we're bringing forward. Every five years, we have to do two dry docks. And we are allowed to have the first dry dock on the second or third year. All these dry docks that we're pushing forward is -- were due on the third year. We're doing them on the second year and therefore we don't lose any time on the cycle. It is just doing them earlier during the five year period.

Randy Gibbons

Analyst

Got it. And then I think as guidance for 114 scrubbers versus 118 vessels. Can you reconcile those 4?

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Yes, no, that's right. There are four [indiscernible] vessels that will have to do without scrubbers.

Randy Gibbons

Analyst

Okay. And these are all Supramax vessels?

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Yes.

Randy Gibbons

Analyst

Will you operate those without scrubbers or will you kind of get those out of the fleet?

Petros Pappas

Analyst

We will probably sell them or if not -- if the market is very strong we may keep them through to next year.

Randy Gibbons

Analyst

Okay. All right. Last question for me. Segueing on the possible selling of ships. Star Bulk shares exceeded 11 bucks just two weeks ago back to $9.20 or so today pretty good move today. With share trading at a pretty steep discount to NAV and obviously with rates in 3Q 2019 and beyond looking pretty strong, are sharing purchases still contingent on the sale of ships? Or do you use free cash flow as well for that?

Christos Begleris

Analyst

I think at this point, we still don't feel like using free cash flow to buy back shares. But if we have sales of ships, we might use those proceeds to buy back shares depending on the share price. Our thinking is pretty much the same as it has been for a while on that topic.

Randy Gibbons

Analyst

Got it. Yes. Just do note the change with the recent pull back. All right. Well, that's it for me. Thank you again.

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

Erik Hovi

Analyst

Eric Hovi, Clarksons. Hi, guys. So also regarding the accelerated dry docking you have. So is this something -- I guess you answered most of it already. But is it something you think that other owners are able to accomplish as well or is this something that only you are able to do? And for those added dry docks do you think the installation time will increase as you said with the conditions in the Far East for scrubber installations?

Hamish Norton

Analyst

Well, first of all, I think owners that have had contract in place for a while with shipyard groups may be able to do what we're doing. If you have not had a contract in place for a while, it would be challenging. And the second question?

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Well, the second whether there will be longer…

Hamish Norton

Analyst

Yes, I mean basically, our estimate of the dry dock and scrubber installation schedule takes into account increasing congestion at the shipyards. And we don't think, it's going to get longer. But the reason, we hedged our bets a little bit is that, it's hard to predict exactly how congested these shipyards can get. But I mean, we think, we’ve put in a buffer that’s sufficient for the increasing congestion that we anticipate.

Erik Hovi

Analyst

Okay. That's really helpful. I guess, that's it for me. Thank you, guys.

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our next question. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

J. Mintzmyer

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. J Mintzmyer, Value Investor's Edge. Good quarter considering the dynamics of the market and even better fixtures for Q3. Just a bit of housekeeping, I might have missed it in the opening comments. You mentioned previously 100% scrubber installation for the fleet, but I see 114 total scrubbers on slide seven verses 118. Are there four ships that are no longer getting scrubbers or those ships that are earmarked for sale or what's going on there?

Hamish Norton

Analyst

Those are four ships that are not getting scrubbers that we may sell or operate depending on the strength of the market.

J Mintzmyer

Analyst

Okay, that makes sense. Thanks, Hamish. And then looking at your cash balances, I understand there's about $20 million deposits coming back from the scrubbers financing. Cash balance is a little low but current ratio looks good. What kind of cash buffer are you looking for, for the company before you can really go heavy on either repurchases here at these prices or reinstating a dividend?

Hamish Norton

Analyst

It's not just cash buffer, it's also market outlook. And, I think we have always stated that in a strong market, we want to be a significant dividend pair. And, that sentiment hasn't changed. And, let's hope for a continued strong market.

J. Mintzmyer

Analyst

Yes, excellent. A follow up for that -- go ahead.

Petros Pappas

Analyst

On the share repurchases, we stated before that right now, given our cash balance, you may see us buyback shares utilizing proceeds from same vessels.

J. Mintzmyer

Analyst

Yes, that makes sense. It's just a plane that arbitrage with a NAV [ph] and looking at your net asset value now I see you guys in the mid-14s. And then that's without giving you any credit for the scrubbers and also without including any sort of positive cash flow that I'm expecting in the third quarter. So definitely huge disconnect right now in the market. And the more you can act on that, the better. You see have a situation here with the rates running quite healthy, capes in the 20s and the stock is falling. So that's a perfect opportunity to take advantage of that arbitrage. Thank you, gentlemen, for your time today.

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We have no further questions at this time, please continue.

Petros Pappas

Analyst

Thank you very much, operator. And thank you everybody. We have nothing else to add. Have a nice summer vacation everyone.

Operator

Operator

That concludes the conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.