Earnings Labs

Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, May 6, 2016

$11.90

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-12.62%

1 Week

-8.70%

1 Month

-14.51%

vs S&P

-17.74%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Stillwater Mining Company’s First Quarter 2016 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Mick McMullen, President and CEO with Stillwater Mining Company. Thank you. You may begin.

Mick McMullen

Analyst

Thank you very much and thank you everybody for joining us. I am joined today here by Chris Bateman, our Chief Financial Officer and we will go through the deck that we have available. And as I go through, I will do a page turn and draw your attention to the page numbers. Firstly, I would like to draw everyone’s attention to Slide 2, the forward-looking statements, in particular, the assumption and analysis we have made in light of our experience. And we are making all of the statements contained in this release. Going to Slide 3, the first quarter highlights, we had another strong performance both in terms of cost per ounce. All-in sustaining cost was down, again, around about $613, in line with the previous quarter, but down nearing up to 20% from the prior quarter in 2015. Cash, we ended the period with about $452 million of cash, cash equivalents and highly liquid investments. Production was very strong from the mines, just over 137,000 ounces, up from 133,000 ounces from the same period in the previous year. Recycling volume was very strong. We were just over 154,000 ounces of PGMs produced and that was nearing up to 42% increase from 2015. We did have a loss of just under $10 million. And again, we had a very strong quarter operationally which was offset by the decline in the metal price, down to $612 an ounce versus $871 in the same period of 2015. Moving to Slide 4, when we look at that, all of the results, you can see again about a 3% improvement year-on-year in ounces. Sales price down nearly 30%. Now, cash costs came down almost 17%. Our all-in sustaining costs were down about 20%. SG&A was broadly in line with where we were a…

Chris Bateman

Analyst

Thanks, Mick. As Mick mentioned earlier, we reported a loss for the quarter of $9.9 million and we had a very strong quarter from a production and cost performance basis. However, the basket price was the lowest in years, with prices bottoming out at $555 on January 12. The good news is we saw a recovery and by April 29, the price – our basket price was up 31% to $727. As of this morning, the basket price is sitting at $707, so prices really drove the performance from a profitability perspective and offset by very good cost performance and productivity. Moving on to Slide 9, we continue to maintain a very strong and conservative balance sheet. Despite the price falls, we have maintained a strong net cash position and we ended the quarter with $452.4 million of cash and cash equivalents plus highly liquid investments. We continue to fund the business from internal cash. So, we are pursuing both the development capital to maintain the developed state as well as the Blitz project with internal resources. Next major debt repayment would be October 2019 when the convertible bond becomes due. As volumes and prices have increased in the recycling area, we have seen that feed through in the quarter to recycle working capital and that increased $5.2 million in the quarter, contributing to the total cash reduction.

Mick McMullen

Analyst

Thanks Chris. We will just go to Slide 10, which is a sort of standard slide we put out, which allows people to sort of to see the various cost components of each operation and how they are tracking. Overall, a pretty good performance on both sides from costs per ton. I will just note that the mining costs at Stillwater Mine did go up quarter-on-quarter, very much driven by the tons milled reducing and actually that’s a good thing, because what that’s been attributed to has been, we have really had a big drive on dilution and we managed to reduce the amount of tons that we mine and mill and yet still get the same or more ounces out. So the overall absolute dollars spent on mining are about the same, but because we mine less ore tons, but still got the same ounces, our cost per ton went up slightly. Again, you will note there on the top line, East Boulder’s cost per ton came down quite significantly, again driven by the fact that we actually had a very strong performance from tons mined. Overall, pretty good result on our cost control. I think we continue to demonstrate that we are very cost disciplined and we think that as we improve productivity at both operations, we have further room to move on some of those costs. Moving to Slide 11, this is really the key metric that we measure the business on from a financial perspective, which is all-in sustaining cost. As I have mentioned earlier, another strong result, very similar to Q4, about $613 an ounce. And again, whenever I talk about an ounce, it’s a mix of platinum and palladium in the ratio, approximately 3.4 to 1. We are maintaining a very disciplined approach to…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Lucas Pipes with FBR & Company. Please proceed with your question.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Hey, good afternoon or I guess good morning everybody. Good job again on the cost side and that’s also where my first question is. So, obviously, in Q1, you were below the low end of your full year guidance. I was curious at what point do you think it may make sense to look at that or rather why do you expect it to ramp up over the course of the year on the cost side to maintain the guidance? I just was hoping for a little bit more context around that full year cost guide.

Mick McMullen

Analyst

Sure. If we look at our costs over a multiple views, typically, Q3 can often be a little bit weaker on production, coming into the summer months. And as the warm weather is there, then we can do a bit more of our capital budget. So, we are always a little bit vary of amending our guidance too early. And again, if you look historically, we have typically done that in the sort of July update if we do that. So, that’s probably why we haven’t adjusted it yet, but we did think about it internally quite obviously for that very reason that we have had two quarters below the bottom end of the guidance budget at the moment, but Q3 can, at times, be slightly higher cost to the quarter.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Got it. So, I look forward to that. And then in terms of your new medium-term cost in the mid to high 500s, what kind of – what’s your checklist to get there in terms of what you have to do operationally? And then also what do you think is the right timing in terms of how would you define medium-term? Is that sometime in ’17, ‘18, when would you like to reach that new goal?

Mick McMullen

Analyst

Well, I would like to reach it as soon as possible, but I think realistically when we put these goals out, we have sort of had an 18-month timeframe in mind. And what do we need to do to get there? Well, I think realistically, it really comes down to productivity guidance and I think in terms of stripping absolute cost out of the business, we have been very successful of that. We realistically will probably need to produce some more ounces in a cost effective manner. So not just go chasing ounces for the sake of chasing ounces. And we do have excess capacity in our mills. They only run – have been running 10 days on, 4 days off, which is going to 11-day on, 3-day off roster at Stillwater Mine. So we have to produce more ounces with the same or less people I think realistically.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Got it, okay, that’s helpful. And then maybe one last question for me before I jump back in the queue and that’s on the Blitz project Mick, I think you mentioned a few times in your prepared remarks and then also – and I think there was – it was in the release, that you are accelerating the development or at least are looking at speeding up the process of Blitz, but then when I look at the CapEx guidance for this year, it wouldn’t show up in the spend in terms of your capital outlay, should we be thinking about an effective reduction in the capital costs, essentially you get more for less or you get kind of a faster development for the same amount of capital, any kind of parameters or context you could give around that prioritization and that acceleration, I would appreciate that?

Mick McMullen

Analyst

Well, at this stage, we haven’t changed the overall budget for the project. It’s around about $205 million. And we did bake in a little bit of extra spend in our guidance relative to what our internal budget was. So I don’t think the overall spend on Blitz have changed materially to your thoughts range. Having said that, we had assumed to spend on it when we put that guidance out.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Got it.

Mick McMullen

Analyst

Which is a dragging forward of spend as opposed to absolute dollars gain. I will say, whilst we haven’t changed the budgets for the project yet, my experience of building things is that time equals money and the quicker you can do something, the cheaper it usually costs you.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Perfect. Yes. So in terms of the timing and the ramp up in 2018, do you have a sense for what period in 2018 it would make sense to – or it could – we could realistically see it ramp up and get towards your targeted rate?

Mick McMullen

Analyst

I do. We are not publishing the full ramp up at this stage because this work is sort of happening as we speak I guess. We have said publicly, mid-’18 is when we expect some first production out of Blitz. I think I would like to get another quarter of work underway and see the results of that before we start to sort of change what we have said publicly about it. What I can say is, we have had some very good success in the last couple of months in terms of accelerating development rates in the 56. Let’s make sure we just build on that before we start publicly saying that we are going to significantly accelerate this project.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

Very good. Well, it sounds like we have a lot to look forward to. Good luck with everything and I appreciate all the detail. Thank you.

Mick McMullen

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Dave Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Dave Gagliano

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, great. Thank you for taking my questions. I just have a couple of quick ones. The – we have seen this in the past, I just wanted to ask, the production volumes are running ahead of the sales volumes, it was a little bit of an inventory build over the last three quarters in a row, when should we expect that to reverse and what’s the reason behind that?

Chris Bateman

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Dave I think you all have seen January, February prices were less than stellar. So the agency is pushing ounces in that there is a couple of months in the quarter and it wasn’t there in our opinion. We saw on a month basis, sales significantly exceeded production in March. And we have continued to push strongly through April with ounces out of the system. So as prices become a little bit more reasonable, you will see us pushing harder on sales.

Dave Gagliano

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Just a follow-up, it’s been – I think it’s been three quarters in a row, so I mean if you just added up, over the last two quarters – I think like 22,000 ounces, 23,000 ounces of higher production in sales, should we expect that to basically be a net zero by the end of the year?

Mick McMullen

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

I mean we will – yes, we will be pushing out the ounces, but what we expect will be somewhat determined by what the price environment is over there the remainder of the year.

Dave Gagliano

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, alright. Thank you. And then just – go ahead. I am sorry.

Mick McMullen

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

I think we do look at the prices closely and the sense of urgency when the prices dip is not the same as when we see a recovery. The prices have also been extremely volatile.

Dave Gagliano

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Got it, okay. And unrelated question, the mid – or sorry, medium-term goal to mid-$500 per ounce goal, does that include anything associated with the Blitz project?

Mick McMullen

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Not.

Dave Gagliano

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Where do you think that numbers could go when Blitz...?

Mick McMullen

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

That’s Blitz comes on.

Dave Gagliano

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

And where do you think the number could go once Blitz is up?

Mick McMullen

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Well, we have said that Blitz should be our lowest-cost production. I don’t – I have only five minutes ago put out the mid to high-500 as a goal, Dave. But let me just do some more work Blitz before we put the next goal out.

Dave Gagliano

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Alright. Thank you very much.

Mick McMullen

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

We obviously have some internal numbers, but I don’t think it’s appropriate for us to put it up two minutes after I have just put the last aspirational goal there.

Dave Gagliano

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Sam Crittenden with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Sam Crittenden

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Hi. Thank you. And thanks for providing me update on the Blitz drilling. I am just curious how much engineering work has been done on the mine plan, for those for couple of years, I would in Blitz, so I am just wondering if that grade range of 0.6 ounces to 0.7 ounces per ton is based on those mine plans or is that just a feel from the drill results?

Mick McMullen

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

No. That’s sort of based on the mine plan. And it’s being updated on a regular basis as we get information in. But when we look at the drill results and the sort of the way the ore body sits and the ground conditions and everything and the average sheet grade. If you look at the mineralization, typically the off-shaft stuff you get 40% to 50% of the rate is mineralized above ore grade. And we are within that range or slightly at the top end of that range. So that 0.6 ounces to 0.7 ounces is I think it’s reasonably conservative based on the last lot of drilling that we have got in.

Sam Crittenden

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

And would you use similar mining methods to the main Stillwater Mine or I am just trying to figure out, I mean are you getting similar cost production performance with better grades or is it more narrow mining to get those higher grades?

Mick McMullen

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

No. It’s probably water, probably more difficult ground conditions, so the cost per ton is likely to be similar, maybe to slightly high than what the original the old Stillwater Mining stuff is.

Sam Crittenden

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Thanks very much Mick.

Mick McMullen

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

But if you look at the grades, the grades are significantly higher than what we are mining now. And similarly, all your logistics are way lower.

Sam Crittenden

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, it sounds good. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Andrew Quail with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew Quail

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. Hi Mick, Chris. Thanks for the update guys especially on costs. A couple of questions, first can you just breakdown that CapEx between the two mines, I think its 8.9, can you just breakdown that between Stillwater and East Boulder, the sustaining?

Mick McMullen

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

I will need to dig that out of the top of my head, it’s historically been sort of one-third, two-third off the top of my head. But Chris might be able to find it for you just...

Andrew Quail

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

I will give you my second question then. Is the grade, obviously at Stillwater picked up slightly and it’s probably – it’s only the best grade you have had for eight quarters, is that something that you guys can keep up or is that just an anomaly?

Mick McMullen

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Well, that’s almost a two-part answer. We did have some better stopes or better grade stopes. We are really only for about half the quarter there. But actually, the – probably equally as big driver or may be even bigger has been this dilution control. We have gone from and don’t quote me exactly on this, but we have gone from something like close to two sort of unplanned dilution to about 8 inches of what we call over break or unplanned dilution at the Stillwater Mine and that’s very much a result of some new technology we put in place and a strong focus on mining practices. And again, that’s why on that Slide 10, you saw the tons milled go down quite a bit, but we still got the ounces because we weren’t shipping waste to the mill.

Andrew Quail

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Good.

Mick McMullen

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

So overall we see the grade has improved, because obviously, if you are shipping a pile of waste to the mill, your head grade is going down.

Andrew Quail

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Got it, okay. Well, you guys can just get back to me on the CapEx breakown. Thanks both.

Mick McMullen

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Alright. No problems, Andrew.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from John Bridges with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

John Bridges

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Morning math everybody. I will show some results and especially your boardroom, it seems like an awful long time since if I walk to one of our boardrooms?

Mick McMullen

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Look, we actually do. We do get the old ones still, John, but not of the scale that you would have known from the past, in the old off shaft area.

John Bridges

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

I remember that go from one of the bigger ones. So, you are thinking about trying to accelerate the access for Blitz. What sort of buttons can you press to make that happen? What are the areas you are looking out to bring things forward?

Mick McMullen

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

The critical path items for first production at the Blitz, is driving the 56 decline out as fast as we can get it out there. That does two things. First, one is it gets us out so that we can drill it, because we have to drill from underground and the other is that once we get out far enough, we can then start ramping down to the production level 300 feet below, basically halfway between the 56 and the tunnel boring drilling. So, that is the critical path item in order to get first production. And so we have – that’s why we are focused on accelerating advanced rates in that decline. We have had some help coming from Australia in terms of accelerating that. And we have had some of our guys in Australia looking at high-speed development and we have seen a significant step up in advanced rates there. That’s the thing we can do to get first production up and running. And I will make a decision later this month on where and when we are going to put that first ramp system in. The second thing that has to happen, the critical path in terms of ramp up is actually the connection between the 56 decline and the Benbow decline coming in the far end. And so we have done a lot of work in terms of accelerating how we can get that thing moving faster. And so that determines when we get ventilation breakthrough and that’s how quick we can ramp this thing up. And then the third item is the TBM, but it is a lesser priority in terms of the ranking of what we are going to do. So, we have identified the critical path item. We have focused very heavily on that. And then once that no longer becomes a critical path, then the Benbow decline will become the critical path and you can be assured that, that’s getting a fair bit of attention as well.

John Bridges

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

And imagine, what rate are you advancing 56 new decline?

Mick McMullen

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

We are advancing and I will convert this to metric, because that’s the way I think. So, we are advancing at around about 90 meters a month at the moment, maybe a little bit higher in the last week.

John Bridges

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

And then you mentioned ground conditions in Blitz, what are you seeing?

Mick McMullen

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. One of the characteristics of that off-shaft material is that when you do get those ballrooms, the big intercepts of high grade is you typically do have a bit more 14 leg. And so the very good grade and the big whips do come with slightly tougher ground, not impossible to mine, but the mining costs, the actually mining costs per ton there will be slightly high than where we have got better ground, but that will be more than offset by the whips the grades and just the whole – the fact that we can get people into the working phase in half the time or third of the time for the rest of the mine will make a big difference to productivity.

John Bridges

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, great. Well congratulations on results. We are looking to update on Blitz as well.

Mick McMullen

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Just jump back on the sustaining capital, Stillwater Mine in the year, Q1 was just under $9 million. East Boulder was just a tad over $4 million. Okay, any other questions.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. At this point, I would like to turn the call back over to Mick McMullen for closing remarks.

Mick McMullen

Analyst

Alright. Well, thanks everybody for joining. And I think it was a strong quarter operationally for us and we look forward to giving people further updates on our progress on our new goal of reducing costs and accelerating our Blitz project. Thank you, everyone.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a great day.