SCABY (SCABY) Q3 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of SCA's Third Quarter Report. Today, we are joined by President and CEO, Ulf Larsson; and CFO, Andreas Ewertz. We look forward to walking you through the results, followed by a Q&A session. Over to you, Ulf.

Thank you, Per. Good morning also from my side, and a warm welcome to our presentation of our results for the third quarter '26. During the quarter, result increased sequentially and was also in line with Q3 '25. Market conditions were mixed between the segments during the third quarter. We continue to see improvements both in pricing and demand for the Containerboard segment. In Renewable Energy, we have seen another quarter with a strong result, while Pulp and Solid Wood products faced a continued challenging market. High fuel prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East impacted the result within the Forest and Industrial segments negatively, while the liquid biofuels business, on the other hand, benefited from higher oil prices. SCA reached SEK 1.63 billion on EBITDA level and by that, an EBITDA margin of 31% for the third quarter. Turning over to some financial KPIs for the third quarter. As already said, our EBITDA reached SEK 1.63 billion, which corresponds to a 31% EBITDA margin. Industrial return on capital employed came out slightly above 0 accounted for the last 12 months, and the leverage was at 2, while our net debt to equity reached 10.4%. I will now make some comments for each segment, starting with Forest. During the quarter, SCA continued to process wind-felled volumes for forest owners in the areas affected by the storm at the end of last year. Harvesting level of our own forest was stable, but slightly -- at a slightly lower level compared to the same period last year. Harvesting to our own forest has contributed to a balanced supply of wood raw materials to our industries also during this period. Prices for both pulpwood and sawlogs have continued down. However, compared to the same period last year, sawlog prices are somewhat higher, while pulpwood prices are clearly lower. When one compares Q3 '26 with Q3 '25, sales were down 1%, while EBITDA was down 23%, mainly due to lower prices for pulpwood and increased fuel costs. During the quarter, SCA sold low productive forest land far from our industries. At the same time, we acquired around 5,000 hectares of productive forest land closer to our industries for the same amount of money. The market for solid wood products is moving sideways due to slow building activities in most regions. We expect the demand to continue to be stable on current level in the coming quarter. Production in Germany and Canada has decreased year-on-year, but volumes in Scandinavia are close to last year's level, driven by processing of storm felled logs. Stock levels remain on the high side among producers for pine, but are on normal levels for spruce. Stock levels at customers continue to be on the low side. Delivery volumes were lower in Q3 '26 in comparison with Q3 '25. SCA's focus on goods is at a balanced level for the season. The price for solid wood products decreased by 2% in the third quarter at '26 in comparison with the same quarter last year. This development is in line with what I said when I presented the report for the second quarter. The cost for sawlogs in the third quarter was still high, but we saw a small price decrease in comparison with the second quarter, and we expect to see some further decreases in log costs when moving into the fourth quarter. Sales were 6% lower in comparison with the same quarter last year. EBITDA margin decreased from 15% to 8% due to higher raw material costs and lower delivery volumes. Today's stock level of solid wood products in Sweden and Finland is described at the top left on this slide and is shown in relation to the average for the last 5 years. As mentioned earlier, we note that the inventory level is on the high side in Scandinavia, especially for pine, while the SCA stock level is balanced. As can be seen in the diagram to the bottom left, the Swedish and Finnish sawmill production has been like the 5-year average during '26. In the diagram to the top right, we can note that the export price index decreased somewhat in the third quarter and as already mentioned, SCA's prices moved in the same direction. Going into the next quarter, I estimate that the underlying prices in the market will be unchanged, but are moving into -- but we are moving into a seasonally weak demand, and we still have negative effects from lower quality on the storm-felled logs, giving a limited risk on the downside. Over to Pulp. When comparing Q2 '26 with Q2 '25, sales were up 7%, mainly due to strong production and higher delivery volumes, which was somewhat mitigated by lower prices. EBITDA was down 18%, which was mainly driven by lower prices, partly mitigated by lower costs for raw materials, strong production with lower specific costs and repayment of tariffs totaling SEK 15 million. Global pulp prices remained on a low level during the third quarter, supported by a relative weak demand combined with a high inventory level in China. Several softwood pulp mills have had market-related downtime during the third quarter and closures of softwood pulp capacity have been announced in both North America and Europe during the year. In Europe and U.S. softwood pulp prices decreased slightly during the third quarter, whereas prices in China first declined before rebounding towards the end of the quarter. Looking at CTMP, demand and prices remained at low level during the third quarter. Global inventories of softwood pulp stayed at a high level during the quarter, as shown in the diagram, whereas hardwood inventories increased from a low level to a more normal level. Moving over to Containerboard. Here, sales were up 12% compared to the same period last year, driven by higher delivery volumes and higher prices. EBITDA increased by 130%, driven by lower costs for planned maintenance stops, higher prices, lower costs for raw materials and repayment of tariffs of SEK 27 million. This was partly mitigated by negative currency effects. After a softer box demand in the early summer, demand recovered in the third quarter with full year growth slightly below long-term average. The stronger manufacturing industry in combination with the growing retail business has been very supportive. European demand of containerboard has improved during the third quarter following the box demand, and we forecast a positive demand development of Containerboard in the coming quarter. There is no new Containerboard capacity started up in the first 3 quarters of the year. During the last quarter of '26, we can expect ramp-up of the new capacity started in '25 as well as some closures to balance some of the increased supply. Kraftliner inventories remain on a seasonal normal level Q3, driven by both stable deliveries and limited supply. During Q3, the availability of OCC has been in balance with supply and demand, which in its turn has led to stable prices. Prices for brown kraftliner in Central Europe increased in the beginning of the third quarter with EUR 60 per tonne for brown kraftliner and EUR 40 per tonne for white kraftliner. The improved underlying demand in combination with strong cost pressure and lower global supply has supported a third price increase for kraftliner this year. With the gradual implementation from September, prices for brown kraftliner in Central Europe have increased with additional EUR 8 per tonne and another EUR 60 per tonne for white kraftliner. Finally, I will say some words about Renewable Energy. In this segment, we have had a stronger quarter this year compared to the same period last year, and that is mainly driven by higher prices and strong production in our jointly owned biorefinery in Gothenburg. Electricity prices were volatile during the quarter, but higher in comparison with Q3 previous year. Delivered volume was higher, driven by our new wind farm Fasikan. In solid biofuels, we have had a good production and stronger deliveries in the year in comparison with last year. By that, Andreas, I hand over to you.

Thank you, Ulf, and good morning, everybody. I'll start off with the income statement for the third quarter. Net sales increased 5% to SEK 5.2 billion, driven by high delivery volumes, which are partly offset by lower prices and negative currency effects. EBITDA was in line with the third quarter last year and totaled SEK 1.6 billion. Lower prices and negative currency effects were offset by lower costs for planned maintenance stops and higher delivery volumes. EBIT decreased just above SEK 1 billion and financial items totaled minus SEK 102 million, with an effective tax rate of below 20%, bringing net profit to SEK 772 million or SEK 1.1 per share. On the next slide, we have the financial development by segment. Starting with the Forest segment to the left. Net sales decreased to SEK 2.4 billion, driven by lower prices for both sawlogs and pulpwood compared to the previous quarter. EBITDA decreased to SEK 702 million, driven by lower prices and seasonally lower harvest from SCA's own forest. In Wood, prices decreased somewhat compared to the previous quarter, mainly driven by product mix, while the cost for sawlogs decreased. Net sales decreased to SEK 1.4 billion, driven by lower delivery volumes and somewhat lower prices. EBITDA increased to SEK 170 million, corresponding to a margin of 8% and the increase was, as I said, driven by lower cost for wood raw materials. In Pulp, net sales increased compared to previous quarter and totaled just below SEK 1.8 billion. EBITDA increased to SEK 198 million, corresponding to a margin of 11%. The increase was mainly driven by lower raw material costs, higher delivery volumes, lower distribution costs, repayment of tariffs of SEK 15 million and higher energy net, which was partly offset by lower prices. In Containerboard, kraftliner prices continued to increase during the quarter. Net sales increased to just below SEK 2 billion and EBITDA increased to SEK 446 million, corresponding to a margin of 23%. The result was positively impacted by higher prices, lower costs for planned maintenance stops, seasonally lower costs and repayment of tariffs of SEK 27 million. In Renewable Energy, we had another strong quarter driven by high fuel prices. EBITDA totaled SEK 201 million, corresponding to a margin of 42%. Somewhat lower results in our solid biofuels and wind business were partly offset by somewhat higher results for liquid biofuels compared to the previous quarter. On the next slide, we have the sales bridge between Q3 last year and Q3 this year. Prices decreased 3%, driven by lower prices in Pulp, which is partly offset by higher prices in Containerboard. Volumes increased 9%, driven by higher volumes in Pulp and Containerboard, which was offset by lower volumes in Wood. Lastly, currency had a negative impact of 1%, bringing net sales to SEK 5.2 billion. Moving on to the EBITDA bridge and starting to the left. Price/mix had a negative impact of SEK [ 144 ] million and higher volumes had a positive impact of SEK 53 million. Lower cost for raw materials had a positive impact of SEK 7 million, while energy had a [ positive ] impact of SEK 4 million. We had a negative impact from currency of SEK 57 million. Lastly, we had a positive impact from lower cost of planned maintenance stops and tariff repayments of SEK 42 million, which was partly offset by higher distribution costs. In total, EBITDA was in line with Q3 last year and totaled SEK 1.6 billion, corresponding to a margin of 31%. Looking at the cash flow. Operating cash flow decreased to SEK 426 million for the quarter and SEK 1.4 billion for the first 9 months. Working capital in the quarter was negatively impacted by higher prices and market mix. As you know, other operating cash flow relates mostly to working capital currency hedges and should be seen together with changes in working capital. Looking at the balance sheet. The value of the forest assets totaled SEK 105 billion. Working capital increased to SEK 5.4 billion. Capital employed totaled SEK 112 billion and net debt stood at SEK 11 billion. Equity totaled SEK 102 billion and net debt to equity was 10%. And we have now almost finalized our large ongoing investment projects. Thank you. With that, I'll hand back to you, Ulf.

Thank you, Andreas. If we again then summarize the third quarter, I mean, I think we have delivered a stable quarter. Result increased sequentially, as I said, and was in line with the same period last year. We have mixed market conditions, a strong market for Containerboard, higher prices, good demand. Renewable Energy, of course, still on a very high level. On the other hand, the market conditions for Pulp and Wood is continued challenging, I would say. So by that, I think we open up for questions, please.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Linus Larsson of SEB.

Starting off with the wood market developments. How you see wood markets developing now in the fourth quarter? And how are they affecting fourth quarter results in forest? And then if we could also talk about the log cost situation in wood going into the fourth quarter and the pulpwood cost for the other industrial activities, please?

If we start with the wood market, I mean, as you know, we have had a rather solid supply for a number of quarters now, and that is, of course, also related to the windfall we had in the late part of last year. We are still helping our friends south of the SCA area to take care of the wood. We have also seen some additional volumes coming down now recently. By that, we believe that we will continue to harvest a rather big part of storm-felled wood. I think you, Andreas, can maybe elaborate a little bit about the cost side.

Yes. So this quarter, we saw a decline of around 5% compared to Q2 in both sawlogs and pulpwood. Going into the fourth quarter, we see another 4% to 5% decline in both sawlogs and pulpwood.

Perfect. That's very clear. Then maybe on Containerboard, you've had this price momentum now for a couple of quarters. Could you elaborate a bit more on that? I think you -- Ulf said that we have a good chunk of price impact coming through in the fourth quarter. Is that more or less than what we've seen in the previous couple of quarters? And also in conjunction to that, what has not been at least publicly announced so far, could you talk about the price dynamics in relation to escalating natural gas prices? And if you're hearing anything in the market and from your customers in terms of scarcity, constraints and upward pricing pressure in Containerboard, please?

I mean, as you said, I mean, we have increased prices EUR 60 -- plus EUR 60 per tonne, and that is already in, I would say, the P&L. Then we have done an additional price increase of EUR 80 per tonne for brown unbleached kraftliner, EUR 60 for white kraftliner. That is not fully implemented yet in the result that will come in the fourth quarter. When it comes to, I mean, testliner producers and the impact from increasing gas prices, I mean, as far as we hear now, no price increases announced from that side. We can also see that OCC prices is picking up a little bit. I guess in some areas, they have a rather strong cost pressures. On the other hand, we have an oversupply of testliner, I guess, in the market. I guess many of those producers, they like to protect what they have in Europe. That's maybe the reason why we haven't seen any further price announcements. But I guess it is a rather tough situation being a testliner producer as it is just now.

We'll now take our next question from Gabriel Simoes of Goldman Sachs.

So I have 3. The first one on the Containerboard side. So I just wanted to get some more clarity on the demand that you're seeing for Containerboard. So we've seen some players on the box side mentioning it's been hard to implement the higher paper prices into boxes because box demand has not been great in Europe. So I just wanted to understand if you are already seeing any of that hitting demand on the paper side, especially given the stronger price increases that we've seen lately for kraftliner versus testliner, if you're seeing any sort of move towards the replacement of virgin for recycled products at this point, even though you just mentioned that the situation for testliner has continued to be to be tough. I just wanted to see -- to understand if you're seeing any of your clients requesting some of that. And the second question will be on the wood prices. So basically, as Andreas just mentioned, a 4% to 5% decrease expected in the fourth quarter with some more calamity wood. I just wanted to understand when we should see this phenomenon of higher calamity wood and lower prices being over and when we should see it actually stabilizing. So if you think about the sustainability of the level of profitability in the Forestry division, especially on an EBITDA per cubic meter, excluding revaluation level, what should we think about profitability on a more recurring basis? Are we close to getting there? And what would you expect once the calamity wood is over? Should we see prices moving back up because of the higher cost? Or is this the new sustainable level for these prices?

Okay. If we try to remember the first question, I mean, first, box demand has picked up, as I said, maybe it was a little bit slower in the summer. But just now during the autumn, we feel that the box demand is quite good. Also if we compare with the long-term trend, I guess, we are more or less at the trend just now. The demand is picking up, and we see it -- we have seen it in the e-commerce for a rather long while, but we now also feel that we have an increase in demand from industrial customers, which is, of course, good for us. Then I don't know, but if the second part of that question was substitution. Well, of course, if you have a delta now between kraftliner and testliner EUR 300 per tonne, I guess that some companies, they try to substitute kraftliner if they can. We don't feel the pressure too hard just now. But of course, that is always a risk. Again, testliner is always cheaper than kraftliner. But on the other hand, the quality, it's a different quality and different function. The second question, maybe Andreas, for you.

Yes. And the third one was what we see going into 2027. As I said, we think that we'll have another price decline now on both pulpwood and sawlogs into the fourth quarter on 4% to 5%. Then going into Q1, we have not yet seen any further price decreases of wood raw material. At the moment, we feel that we will be fairly flat, but it's a bit too early to say. But so far, with this price decline in Q4, we have not seen anything further than that so far.

And we'll now take our next question from Cole Hathorn of Jefferies.

I'd like to start with the Pulp division. The production volumes are very strong. Am I right to assume that this was CTMP ramping up and there's a little bit of a negative mix effect from kind of the lower price volumes on CTMP? And just any color on the production into the fourth quarter? That's the first question. The second one is on Forest valuation. Obviously, interest rates are higher. You do have one of your peers effectively spinning their forest business in the first half of 2027. So I'm just wondering how you're thinking about forest transaction levels? Any commentary you can get from the data provider and just how SCA is thinking about forest management overall?

Okay. I'll start with the first one, Pulp production. No, I mean, we have had a very good year in NBSK, and we are today at a better place than we were in the past. I would say that we have increased capacity in NBSK. When it comes to CTMP, I mean, we -- that is much more market related, and we run the CTMP mill when energy prices are on a decent level and when we feel that we can produce for deliveries to Europe more or less. I mean, let's say that we run the CTMP mill by 60%, 70% of the capacity, and that is 100% market related. But NBSK is doing very well this year, and we have and we have had a very stable production in NBSK. So we are really happy for that, good development.

Yes. Then in terms of volumes into Q4, we have -- we started to stop at Ostrand and NBSK pulp now at the end of the third quarter, but the big part of the stop will be in the fourth quarter. That, of course, will affect the volumes in the fourth quarter. Then the second question in terms of forest transactions, we have statistics up until the summer, and it's, as you know, still very few transactions. But so far, they are -- no big change is fairly stable so far. But again, very few transactions.

And then maybe just a follow-up on wood products. I mean you've called out stable pricing and sawlog costs down quarter-on-quarter. That implies some improvement into the fourth quarter. It's just unusual seasonally into the kind of the winter period. So I'm just wondering if there's anything in the wood business that we need to think about?

No, not really. I mean that's more -- it's -- you have -- as we say, I mean, you have a lag effect when it comes to the wood supply. So -- and we have supplied a big part of storm-felled logs. So that is one reason. We also -- for the moment being, we have a small, maybe surplus of logs in the market, and that is also, of course, related to what happened here almost 1 year ago. On the other hand, that will give an opportunity to increase the margin for solid wood products even if the price would be on the same level. But it's a limited risk. But on the other hand, when we process the wind-felled logs, we can also see from time to time that we have blue stain, we have other damages in the wood. That might have an impact on the price. So no big things, but we see it.

And just a reminder of when you talk about the Wood division that we buy the sawlog, but then you get the rest products of chips, which is pulpwood. The wood log, of course, goes down, but then also the rest of the byproducts from the chips also goes down with the same amount, just to remind everybody.

And we'll now take our next question from Martin Melbye of ABG.

Could you indicate where we are on the Obbola project now? I think you said an EBITDA of SEK 1 billion a couple of years ago.

Production-wise, we are still not at design capacity. I guess we will -- we need another year to reach 700,000 tonnes and a little bit above that. But step by step. I don't know if you, Andreas, would like to say something about the financial impact.

No. I would say that, as you said, we still have -- we're not at 700,000 tonnes yet. Of course, we are not getting the full volumes effect. I think that the cost position is improving. But of course, we still have to get the final cost from both reaching the full production, but also starting to trimming the cost once we reach the full production. But now we're starting to move back some volumes from overseas to Europe, that means that we're starting to get better gross profit from those extra volumes compared to the previous quarters.

But again, just to remind you, it's a big difference if you are forced to go with additional volumes over to overseas markets in comparison with what you have in Europe, of course.

Okay. So the margins today at the 700,000 tonnes, that would give the numbers you talked about 10 years ago.

In a normal market, yes.

And last question for me. What is your outlook on NBSK prices, say, the next 6 months, if you discuss pros and cons?

I mean we don't forecast and you know the market as good as we do. Again, if you look at China now, you see some -- a little bit of a recovered market and you see also when you look at futures that they are picking up. We haven't got the latest data about development in the stock level. I guess we will have that now. I guess just now, as we speak, we have many maintenance stops, and we have also seen announcements of prolonged stops, and we also have seen announcements of permanent closures and so on. I guess now we will take out quite a lot of capacity from NBSK in the late third, but maybe even more in the fourth quarter. I guess that will have a positive impact on the balance. When will it happen? When will prices start to come up? Hard to say. We saw some trial in U.S. last month. It failed. And -- but I guess sooner or later, we will have a better balance. Maybe in the beginning -- late this year, beginning of next year, I guess.

We'll now take our next question from Detlef Winckelmann of JPMorgan.

Maybe just one for me, just for a point of clarification. I see there was that tariff refund you guys received in Q3. Can you just elaborate on exactly what that is? It's the first I've seen in the paper and packaging kind of sector so far? And then secondly, is this something we should be expecting kind of going forward, 2027 and beyond? Or is that just very much dependent on where tariffs land up? Just any color would be great.

Yes. I mean we paid tariffs -- the tariffs on both Wood, Pulp and Containerboard last year for all the shipments to the U.S. For the tariffs on Pulp and Containerboard, I mean they were said by the court in the U.S. that they're not legal. Then we asked for refunds. We got those tariff we paid last year and part of this year back. Now there is new tariffs on board. The tariffs on wood, the 10%, they are legal. So there we didn't get any tariffs back. But basically, what we paid previously on tariffs on Pulp and Containerboard, those we got back, but now we have to pay a new tariff for the volumes we ship to the U.S.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our next question from Andrew Jones of UBS.

You seem to be quite upbeat on the demand side for Containerboard. I'm curious like where you are starting to see any sort of weakness in demand as a result of the higher interest rate environment we're in, obviously, the sort of inflationary environment we're in. Are you seeing that starting to come through in the sawn wood business? Like where are you actually starting to see that so far? And also on the same theme, we've got wood costs coming down, interest rates going up in terms of those forest transactions in your sort of regions, I mean, what are you seeing in terms of trends? Anything you'd call out as the market dried up? What impact those factors having on valuation, et cetera.

The first one was about the impact of high interest on demand.

Yes. It's hard to say. As we've said now, we have a very mixed market situation. I guess, demand for Containerboard is strong, really strong. Demand for Pulp as it is just now, rather weak. Solid wood products, it's okay. It's stable, but still not good enough for price increases in the first -- in the fourth or the first quarter next year. I guess we have to wait until the second quarter next year before we see something. I don't know if we -- what kind of impact the interest rates will have on the demand in different areas. It's always a question about supply/demand. I guess that's short-term, that's more impacting the market. Then in terms of forest trends, as I said so far, we don't see any big changes this year, but a few transactions. Historically, I mean, the last 2 years, you had a very, very strong development of wood raw material prices, but the forest prices didn't go up. So the correlation was quite low. Of course, we'll have to see how it develops. But we have to remember that most forest owners are very long-term and you only harvest part of your forest each year. You might have forest is going to be harvested in 20 or 30 or 40 or 50 or 70 years. That's why it's more of a long-term view of these changes.

Okay. Fair enough. And maybe just a quick one on 4Q. I mean we've -- during Linus' question, I think you asked about the cost side, I was surprised the costs as they were in 3Q in the current environment. I mean, curious what developments you're seeing in some of the non-wood elements of cost in 4Q, like chemicals, logistics, you mentioned shipping less containerboard fees on those different buckets of costs, what are the sort of trends you're seeing in 4Q?

Yes. As I mentioned, the wood cost is coming down another 4% to 5% in the fourth quarter. In terms of chemicals, the chemicals are going up again in the fourth quarter. They went down in the third quarter compared to the second quarter because people thought that the development in the Middle East would improve. So the energy prices and also the chemical prices went down. Now we see that the chemical prices are going up into the fourth quarter. OCC, we think will be fairly stable. In terms of energy, we're coming into a colder period in Northern Sweden, which, of course, will be higher cost for our industries, but better for Renewable Energy. Then, of course, we have the seasonality, we always have lower costs in the third quarter compared to the other quarters.

And we'll now take our next question from Pallav Mittal of Barclays.

Firstly, in terms of Containerboard, there are a number of industrial companies that are calling out deteriorating EU consumer confidence, geopolitical uncertainty, while you are calling out really strong demand on the Containerboard side of things, mainly on the industrial products. So can you just help us understand where is the mismatch? Is there any temporary impact coming in from inventory? Because I think on one of your charts, you were also showing that the inventory is on the higher side. So that's the first one. And then secondly, on capital allocation. With your CapEx winding down, what is the priority for free cash flow between deleveraging and returns to shareholders?

If I start with the capital allocation question, I think I previously guided on current CapEx for this year around SEK 1.5 billion. I think it will be slightly lower around SEK 1.4 billion because there's a spill over to the next year, while I still think the strategic will be below SEK 400 million. Then as we mentioned before that we are focused now on ramping up our strategic projects and getting cash flows from those investments. Once we have those cash flow, I mean, we'll have to look at how to spend that cash flow. Ulf, if you want to add anything?

No.

And then, Ulf, I think the second one was about the Containerboard demand compared to the inventories.

I guess we have -- it's a balanced market, and that's the reason also why we came through with the third price increase in kraftliner. For kraftliner, it's a balanced market. We can also see, as I said, after summer, an improved demand. What is positive for us, I guess, is that we see it also from the industrial part. Retail has been strong for a long time, but now we see an increase in demand also from the industrial part. The Containerboard market is balanced, and it's also impacted now by the fact that we have had a number of longer or shorter maintenance stops during the autumn. So it's more or less the same pattern as we have in NBSK pulp.

And as you mentioned before, we had several large closures in the U.S. last year. Of course, it takes a while for those closures to give an effect as usually it takes time to close. You have inventory that are sold off, but they're starting to give effect now. And of course, that helped to improve the balance.

And that was more or less between 3 million and 4 million tonnes. So it's quite a big volume.

Thank you. With no further questions on the line, I will now hand it back to the host for closing remarks.

This then concludes our presentation of our third quarter report. We would also like to take this opportunity to welcome you back in late January when we will present our full year report. Thank you for attending.