Earnings Labs

Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Wed, Jul 24, 2019

$167.62

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Southern Copper Corporation Second Quarter 2019 Results Conference Call. With us this morning, we have Southern Copper Corporation Mr. Raul Jacob, Vice President, Finance, Treasurer and CFO, who will discuss the results of the company for the second quarter 2019, as well as answer any questions that you might have. The information discussed on today's call may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's results and prospects, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially, and the company cautions to not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Southern Copper Corporation undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. All results are expressed in the full U.S. GAAP. Now, I will pass the call on to Mr. Raul Jacob.

Raul Jacob

President

Thank you very much, Gigi, and good morning to everyone, and welcome to Southern Copper's second quarter 2019 earnings conference call. Participating with me in today's conference are Mr. Oscar González Rocha, Southern Copper's CEO and Board member; Mr. Xavier Garcia de Quevedo, Board member of the company; and some other company executives. In today's call, we will begin with an update on our view of the copper markets. We then will review Southern Copper's key results related to production, sales, operating cost, financial results, and expansion projects. After that, we will open the session for questions. Now, let us focus on the copper market, the core of our business. During the second quarter, the London Metal Exchange copper price decreased from an average of $3.12 per pound in the second quarter of last year to $2.77 per pound around this past quarter, that is an 11.2% reduction. Even though we see a good physical market for copper, we believe the falling prices of the second half of 2018 reflected the sentiment of a possible slowdown of the world economy, concerns with Brexit and an escalation of trade protectionism between the U.S. and China. We expect a recovery in copper prices in the coming months. At this point, we're adjusting our view of a refined copper demand for 2019. We're now expecting a growth of 2%. Our previous mark was 2.5% for the year 2019. This will be driven by higher consumption in the U.S. nation, with China demanding 3.5% more refined copper than in 2018. On the supply side, production losses had to reinforce our view of deficit to refined copper – in the refined copper market as a result of labor strike, heavy rains in Chile and Peru this year and technical problems. As a reference, Wood Mackenzie…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question is from Petr Grishchenko from Barclays. Your line is now open.

Petr Grishchenko

Analyst · Barclays. Your line is now open

Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. First, I wanted to just follow up a little bit on Tia Maria developments. While the company received construction permits, there's some articles, including Bloomberg, suggested that Peruvian President said the company should not begin construction because of lack of social approval. So, I'm just curious, what's you're reading of the situation? If you actually expect to begin construction this year? Or what's the time line?

Raul Jacob

President

Okay. Well, as I mentioned during the presentation of the call, we have committed with the government and the local population to have a dialogue process. This will take a while. Currently, the government is initiating this process directly with the local population. We don't have, at this point, any specific date to end the entire process. Actually, I think that it may take as long as it is necessary for all the population in the area to be satisfied with the way that the company will address the project. And I'm sure that they will see the benefits of this investment and will certainly surpass any cost that it may have for local population.

Petr Grishchenko

Analyst · Barclays. Your line is now open

Got it. That's helpful. And second question, I wanted to touch a little bit more on the spill at the Guaymas terminal. I just wanted to clarify something, the scheduled shipment in late August, was that copper shipment? Or was that sulfuric acid?

Raul Jacob

President

No. All of this refers to a sulfuric acid facility that we have at the Guaymas port. It does not affect our copper production or any other metal production at the company.

Petr Grishchenko

Analyst · Barclays. Your line is now open

Okay. So, there are no metal shipments from that terminal?

Raul Jacob

President

Not from that facility that pertains to sulfuric acid.

Petr Grishchenko

Analyst · Barclays. Your line is now open

Got it. Great. Thanks a lot, and best of luck for you guys.

Raul Jacob

President

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Alex Hacking from Citi. Your line is now open Alex.

Alex Hacking

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open Alex

Yes. Good morning, Raul. My first question is just around project sequencing. If you look at the three big opportunities that you have, Michiquillay, Los Chancas and El Arco as you – as we sit today, which of those projects do you feel is most likely to begin construction first? Thank you.

Raul Jacob

President

At this point, I would say that Tia Maria is the one that has the – it's most likely to initiate construction in a time that we can determine now. We have to – as I said, we have to follow a dialogue process with the government and the local population. But currently, we're expecting Tia Maria to initiate production at some point in 2022. And after that, we should have Los Chancas and Michiquillay later on in time.

Alex Hacking

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open Alex

Okay. So, just to confirm, Los Chancas and Michiquillay are ahead of El Arco right now? Hello?

Raul Jacob

President

Yes. Hold on a second. At this point, we have El Arco scheduled for 2024, while Michiquillay and Los Chancas are for 2025.

Alex Hacking

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open Alex

Okay. So, on that basis then, El Arco would actually be ahead of the other two. And then in terms of capital allocation. I guess with Tia Maria on hold, Toquepala finished, the company's going to generate quite a bit of free cash flow. My question is, what is your target for your debt level or net debt level as you kind of approach this new wave of projects? Maybe Tia Maria and then the other three projects that we discussed. Like what's your target net debt level? And therefore, what – or conversely, how you're thinking about your dividend policy? Thank you.

Raul Jacob

President

Sure. Well, okay. On our target, it's set at total debt divided by EBITDA shouldn't be less – more than two, more than two. That's our metric that we want to maintain. Currently, we're there. So, it's under two our current view for this year. We are not considering at this point any specific debt issues. We will see how these projects evolve. At this point, we have enough funds to go on with the projects with our own cash generation. Obviously, more for capital restructure reasons, we may consider some action in the future. And regarding dividends, as I always mention, this is a decision that is made at the Board level in each Board meeting. The Board review the company cash position, the expectations on the market, on cash flow generation given the projects or operations that we have. On that base, a dividend is established. If you see our track record, we have been paying $0.40 per share in the last quarters. We believe that this price reduction that we have seen, and I mentioned it at the presentation of the call, it shouldn't be that long in time. So, we're expecting to either maintain this dividend level or the Board will make a decision for the future, depending on market conditions.

Alex Hacking

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open Alex

Okay. And then just to follow up though. Los Chancas, El Arco, Michiquillay, that's potentially $7 billion, $8 billion of CapEx, right? That could – in theoretically it will all be happening around the same time based on the guidance that you gave earlier. Do you feel the need to de-lever ahead of that? Or are you comfortable sitting at the current 2x level? And then financing of projects with cash flow going forward?

Raul Jacob

President

That is something that we'll – I mean there is not only a position, but also the interest rates that we will see in the future. I think that just for technical reasons, it's a good idea to have some debt in our balance sheet. But we are also very comfortable today, we are finding under-utilized balance sheet that allow us to be ready for any opportunities in the market.

Alex Hacking

Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open Alex

Okay, thanks.

Raul Jacob

President

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Gustavo Allevato from Santander. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open.

Gustavo Allevato

Analyst · Santander. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open

Hi, guys, good morning. So, I have two questions. Firstly, regarding Tia Maria, with the construction license, how much can we expect the company to spend in 2019? And the second question, just to clarify, regarding the [net debt-to-EBITDA] target you mentioned below 2x total debt or net debt-to-EBITDA?

Raul Jacob

President

Okay. On the second one, it's total debt-to-EBITDA less than 2x. On the first one, it's – from Tia Maria, we have a budget for this year of $300 million. At this point, we don't think that we will spend that much money. We're considering an adjustment in this budget, and we'll mention that on the next call.

Gustavo Allevato

Analyst · Santander. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open

Okay. Thank you.

Raul Jacob

President

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Carlos De Alba from Morgan Stanley. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open.

Jens Spiess

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open

Yes. This is actually Jens Spiess. Carlos had to jump off the line. Thanks for taking my call. So, one question, besides this training program you just mentioned, could you maybe provide more details on what specifically you plan to do differently in Tia Maria versus what you have been doing for the past two years in order to reach social acceptance? And maybe what your expectations are in terms of timing, start production something in order to start in 2022? And also, if you could provide an updated CapEx guidance and also cash costs before by-products. And also, if you could please repeat the production guidance by metal because there was some noise on the line and I didn't get that. Thank you so much.

Raul Jacob

President

Okay. So, we have been doing the several activities in the Tambo Valley. And we're adding to that Mollendo and Matarani, which are nearby towns, where about 25,000 people live. And we think that having the construction permit already will lead us access to some other additional funds for social work, which are very important. We believe that this is something that will certainly help the project to move forward. The change that I see at this point is that not only we will have much stronger commitment towards the social work that we have been performing in this area. As I said, we're adding Mollendo and Matarani to our programs. But also, the process will have a much more important participation of the government authorities. This – we're seeing this, well, we saw this before receiving the permit certainly. But we're seeing it now as a much more stronger process coming from government agencies and ministers. At this point, it's a little bit premature to put a line or an estimate on when can we initiate the construction. We have a commitment to the government for not initiating it until this process for dialogue has arrived or reached a proper level. Okay, in production. Let me give you our current view. For this year, we're expecting total copper production of 983,300 tons of copper. For next year, it's 990,000 tons of copper. And we will remain at almost a million ton or passing a little bit of a million tons for the years as I say next year, 2020, 2021. In 2022, we're expecting to have [1.070 million tons]. 2023, 1.2 million tons. In 2024, the same level, 1.2 million tons. For molybdenum, our current view is [24,800 tons] for the year. We should remain at that level and having changes in production due to recoveries and ore grades. For zinc, we're expecting 85,900 tons zinc this year. Next year, with the San Martin mine running at full speed, we expect to have 109,000 tons of zinc production. In 2021, 126,000 tons of production. In 2022, we should receive the benefit of the Buenavista concentrator adding a little bit north of 100,000 tons of zinc capacity that will make us to produce about 230,000 tons of zinc for that year. And in 2023, 247,000 tons of zinc. For silver, we're expecting 20.1 million ounces this year. That figure should be the same for 2020 and increase to 25,000 million – I'm sorry, 25 million ounces for the years 2021 and on. Cash cost, obviously, will be improving as we move on through these years. So, we are expecting cash cost this year to be at about $0.81. And either remain at that level or decrease [indiscernible].

Jens Spiess

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open

Okay. And before by-products, how much would that be? So, what's embedded by-product or something that you have in that number?

Raul Jacob

President

About $1.45, which is what we – we're expecting for this year $1.47 before credits. And it should remain at about that level. Until 2022, we will have an increase in our – over the 1 million-ton production capacity that we have now. So, 2022, 2023, we should have a reduction on a per pound basis to about $1.40. Obviously, as you may imagine, this is not operating cash cost. It's the most difficult metric to predict because you not only have the metal prices as part of it, but also all the costs that affect the operations. But even at the current cost level and considering the growth program that we have; we should be aiming towards from where are now $1.47 for this year down to $1.40 in the next few years before credits.

Jens Spiess

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open

Okay. Thank you, Raul.

Raul Jacob

President

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Hernan Kisluk from MetLife. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open.

Hernan Kisluk

Analyst · MetLife. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open

Good morning. Thank you taking my question. It's a short one regarding the bond maturity that you have on April next year for $400 million, if you already have any plans to refinance that or to pay that down? What's the idea there? Thank you.

Raul Jacob

President

At this point, we are considering – well, just – if you look at our cash position, obviously we can pay it from our own funds. We're considering different options for this maturity, but no decision has been made so far.

Hernan Kisluk

Analyst · MetLife. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open

Thanks.

Raul Jacob

President

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Alfonso Salazar from Scotiabank. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open.

Alfonso Salazar

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open

Hello Raul and good morning for everyone. I have two questions. The first one is regarding Tia Maria. You already mentioned that you're going to get a social license [indiscernible] for social approval. But this…

Raul Jacob

President

Alfonso, we can't copy you well. I'm sorry, we cannot copy you well.

Alfonso Salazar

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open

Can you hear me better now?

Raul Jacob

President

Yes, certainly.

Alfonso Salazar

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open

Okay. So, my question – the first question I have is regarding Tia Maria. You were saying that what you're doing to get the social license. The question I have, have you plan B? Because you have been trying to do sort of [indiscernible] or so and certainly, it hasn't been an easy task to get the social approval. So, what is the plan B? Have you thought about the possibility to monetize somehow these assets in case that you don't get the approval? Or you're going to continue until you get? The second question I have is, if you have a strategy to improve public opinion in both Mexico and Peru, after this deal in [indiscernible] deal. There has been some comments – negative comments. So, if you have any strategy there to improve the public opinion? Thank you.

Raul Jacob

President

Thank you for your questions, Alfonso. On Tia Maria, we have no plan B. We want to keep following what we are doing now, which is having a very good, very successful social programs in this area. We believe that we're doing – at this point, we have a much better project environment than what we had in past years. This is somehow reflected in receiving the construction permit. We don't want to speculate on what if. We are currently focused and concerned and committed to moving forward with this project in both the social aspects that it has as well as the operational ones when we initiate the construction in the future. On your second comment or question on public opinion. Obviously, we are working to inform – we're certainly informing in Peru and Mexico as well, on different levels of both government and public opinion on the quality of the operations and the way that we do our business. And we believe that this is certainly helping us in both countries to moving forward with our projects as we are now doing.

Alfonso Salazar

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please identify yourself. Your line is now open

Okay. Thank you very much Raul.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I am showing no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Raul Jacob for any closing remarks.

Raul Jacob

President

Thank you very much, Gigi. Well, with this we conclude our conference call for Southern Copper's second quarter 2019 results. We certainly appreciate your participation and hope to have you back with us when we report the third quarter of 2019. Thank you very much and have [a nice day].

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect.