Earnings Labs

Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Wed, May 24, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to Shoe Carnival's First Quarter Fiscal 2017 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. It is also being broadcast via webcast. Any reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this call is expressly prohibited. Management's remarks may contain forward-looking statements that involve a number of risk factors. These risk factors could cause the company's actual results to be materially different from those projected in such statements. Forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the discussion of risk factors included in the company's SEC filings and today's earnings press release. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today's date. The company disclaims any obligation to update any of the risk factors or to publicly announce any revisions to the forward-looking statements discussed on today's conference call or contained in today's press release to reflect future events or development. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Cliff Sifford, President and Chief Executive Officer of Shoe Carnival, for opening remarks or comments. Mr. Sifford, you may begin.

Clifton Sifford

Management

Thank you and welcome to Shoe Carnival's First Quarter Fiscal 2017 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on today's call is Kerry Jackson, Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Operating and Financial Officer. On today's call, I'll provide a brief overview of our first quarter performance and give you an update on our 2017 guidance. Kerry will review the financial results, then we'll open up the call to take your questions. Like many companies across specialty retail industry, we had a challenging start to fiscal 2017. We believe this was primarily due to the IRS decision to delay tax refund season until the end of February compared to mid-February last year. Historically, in conjunction with the timing of tax refunds, our customers use the beginning of the year as a second back-to-school sales period, where they replace the athletic footwear purchased in July and August. This year, we saw an escalation of sales of first few weeks of tax refund season. But our sales results never hit the peaks we experienced in comparable prior year periods. In addition, we also believe that a later Easter selling season hurt our sales because the holiday moved away from the timing of spring break. As a result of these 2 events, our first quarter comparable store sales declined 3.9%. To give an indication of how sales trended for both the Easter selling season, along with the shift of the later tax refund season, March and April sales combined were up 1.4% on a comparable store basis. For the quarter, conversion was flat. Average dollars per transaction and units per transaction were up low single digits. These positive results were partially offset by a mid-single-digit decline in brick-and-mortar traffic. We ended the quarter with inventory down 1% on a per-store basis. Our merchants continue to do…

W. Jackson

Management

Thank you, Cliff. First quarter net sales decreased $7.1 million to $253.4 million compared to the first quarter last year. This was primarily due to a $9.9 million decrease in comparable store sales and a $3.3 million loss in sales from the 14 stores closed since the beginning of fiscal 2016, partially offset by sales of $6.1 million generated by the 26 new stores opened since the beginning of fiscal 2016. Our gross profit margin for the quarter was 28.5% compared to 29.0% in the first quarter last year. This was driven by a 30-basis-point increase in our merchandise margin, offset by an 80-basis-point increase in buying, distribution and occupancy expenses as a percentage of sales. The increase in buying, distribution and occupancy cost as a percentage of sales was primarily due to higher occupancy costs. As a reminder, we typically need a 2% to 3% comp store sales increase to leverage our occupancy cost. SG&A expenses increased $658,000 in the first quarter of fiscal 2017 to $58.9 million. As a percentage of sales, these expenses increased to 23.3% compared to 22.4% in the first quarter last year. For the quarter, the increase in expenses for new stores was partially offset by expense reductions for stores that have closed resulting in a $1.1 million increase in non-comp store selling expenses. Significant changes in SG&A for the quarter included increases of store-related fixed asset impairments and employee health care, along with decreases in advertising expense and stock-based compensation expense. Included in both cost of sales and SG&A in the first quarter of fiscal 2017 were store closing costs of $1.1 million, which included $646,000 of store-related fixed asset impairments. Store closing costs, including cost of sales and SG&A, were $119,000 in the first quarter of fiscal 2016 and there were no…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from David Mann with Johnson Rice.

David Mann

Analyst

You talked about how you expect it to be more promotional as the year goes on. Can you just give a sense on what you've seen thus far in terms of the liquidation sales and how that's impacting your business from the other retailers?

Clifton Sifford

Management

David, the -- earlier in the year, with MC Sports closing down, we did see, especially in shopping centers where we shared -- where they were a cotenant, we actually did see a slowdown in sales in those stores. The department stores have not really begun their going out of business sales yet or at least not in our area, and we believe that's going to have an effect sometime during the second quarter or maybe even heading into the third quarter. So we'll have more information on that as we do our call in August.

W. Jackson

Management

And we're tracking those stores that are affected by it and we're looking at about 41% of our stores or about 170 stores will be affected by at least one closing in this primary trade area. So that's why we had projected our gross profit margin to be slightly down in the second quarter taking into account those GOB sales.

David Mann

Analyst

Great. And then in terms of the commentary on May and also the sort of flattish outlook for Q2, have you seen -- where have you seen the recovery in the business? Has it been all traffic? Has it been certain categories? Any color would be appreciated.

Clifton Sifford

Management

No problem. It has not necessarily been traffic. Traffic continues to be a challenge in brick-and-mortar stores. I will tell you, however, that spring product categories have picked up nicely since the beginning of May with sandals coming on fairly strong. We were a little disappointed actually in our sandal sales in the first quarter, but they picked up very nicely in the past 4 to 5 weeks and very excited about where that could be with our strongest sandals month coming in June. The reason for the caution is, again, as Kerry said, the number of closures that we have going on around us and what that's going to do with the customer, well, is yet to be seen.

David Mann

Analyst

And if you could just clarify, how much do you think the shift in school openings will affect you in terms of this quarter and benefit you in Q3?

W. Jackson

Management

We think we're going to come out of July relatively flattish because of the shift. It's where we were looking at a slight increase in the comps because of -- we had a weaker July and an easier compare at this -- but that shift will probably leave us relatively flat in July.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Sam Poser of Susquehanna.

Samuel Poser

Analyst

What are you expecting -- I mean, you're expecting promotional activities. So what's the gross margin expectation for the full year again? Could you just walk us through how that all plays out now?

W. Jackson

Management

Well, what we said, Sam, was that we expect our gross profit margin to be down in Q2. But we also expect to be down for the full year slightly.

Samuel Poser

Analyst

But I mean, if -- are you including in that the promotional activity at those department stores that will close, which would probably pressure into Q3 as well. Is that a fair assumption?

W. Jackson

Management

So we're currently expecting since these GOBs are -- seem to be very aggressive to get through them and some of the stores like Penney started this week that we were contemplating the majority of that issue to happen in Q2. The flip side of it, we did not have -- we had a decent back-to-school, but our early fall sales last year were not very strong. And assuming that's going to not be repeated, we should see a little bit better margin improvement in that. So we're looking at coming out of Q3 relatively flat there.

Samuel Poser

Analyst

Relatively flat in gross margin and then Q4 would be up because of the -- Q4 would be up because the extra week helps you and things like that, correct?

W. Jackson

Management

Well, it's not as much as the extra week as much as we had to get very promotional to keep our seasonal merchandise turning. And therefore, we expect -- and like Cliff, said on the call that we're going to be cautious with our seasonal merchandise. And if it's stronger than we expect, we'll chase it. So we're expecting some recapture of our merchandise margin in Q4. Remember, in Q4 last year, our merchandise margins were down 130 basis points.

Samuel Poser

Analyst

Right. Right, I understand. I missed the beginning of the call. Can you -- I mean, what is -- what tax -- I mean, sorry. You talked about tax rate. What share count are you using within your guidance now that you took such a big buyback in the quarter?

W. Jackson

Management

On an annual basis, it's just over -- fully diluted. It's just over 15,900,000 shares.

Samuel Poser

Analyst

So you're planning to get more aggressive on the buyback, too?

W. Jackson

Management

Well, not necessarily more aggressive, but we had planned to be buying back shares in every quarter this year. And what that reflects is the positive benefit -- the longer the shares are outstanding for the -- or retired for the year, the more beneficial they are. So we front loaded our repurchase towards the beginning of the year to show a lower weighted average for the full year. So we don't intend to maintain the same level of buying back the whole year as we did in Q1.

Samuel Poser

Analyst

I mean, to get to 15.9 million, you're going to have to -- I mean, you're going to have to still buy back fairly aggressively, if I'm thinking about this right.

W. Jackson

Management

We'll still be buying back, but we may spend about the same amount we did in the first quarter over the remaining 3 quarters, though it may be slightly more than first quarter. But you also have to take into account the positive effect of all the -- the full year effect of the shares we bought back last year.

Samuel Poser

Analyst

I mean, you ended last year with 17.4 million. You now have 16.8 million. I mean, getting down to an average of 15.9 million is heady stuff there.

W. Jackson

Management

I think I've just laid out the repurchases for you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll go next to Greg Pendy with Sidoti.

Gregory Pendy

Analyst

Just wondering if you could give a little bit of color on the traffic, I know it was down in the quarter. But is there any kind of overall theme or trend? Are you seeing some puts and takes with some stores maybe being outliers within the traffic? I know you don't have much mall exposure, but if you could kind of tell us which areas and what reasons might be below and then if any areas are trending above?

Clifton Sifford

Management

Greg, that's a terrific question and one I don't think I have the answer to at the tip of my fingertips. We've experienced declining traffic across -- we've watched ourselves from North, Central, South, deep South and of course, Puerto Rico, and traffic remains down mid-single digits in all of those market areas which is, again, reflective of what's going on with brick-and-mortar stores. I can't -- the best -- the most interesting part of that question I believe I could get you an answer on is mall-based traffic and -- is this mall?

W. Jackson

Management

No, it's North, Central, South.

Clifton Sifford

Management

Okay. So with the North, I can give you this. With North our traffic for the quarter was down mid-singles. In the Central time zone, traffic was actually down very, very low singles. And in the South, weather zone, it was down mid-singles. And in the -- in Puerto Rico, down mid-singles and in the deep, deep South, down low singles.

Operator

Operator

It appears we have no further questions at this time. I'll turn it back to you, Cliff, for any final or additional remarks.

Clifton Sifford

Management

I just want to thank you for joining our call this afternoon and we look forward to talking to you about second quarter in August. I hope each of you have a great Memorial Day weekend. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at any time and have a great day.