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Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 19, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Sera Prognostics Conference Call to review Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Results. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. We will be facilitating a question-and-answer session towards the end of today’s call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Peter DeNardo of CapComm Partners for a few introductory comments.

Peter DeNardo

Management

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Sera Prognostics fourth quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings conference call. At the close of the market today, Sera Prognostics released its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2024. Presenting for the company today will be Evguenia Lindgardt, President and CEO; and Austin Aerts, our CFO. During the call, we will review the financial results we released today, after which we will host a question-and-answer session. If you've not had a chance to review our quarterly earnings release, it can be found on our website at sera.com. This call can be heard live via webcast at sera.com and a recording will be archived in the Investors section of our website. Please note that some of the information presented today may contain projections or other forward-looking statements about events and circumstances that have not yet occurred, including plans and projections for our business, future financial results and market trends and opportunities. These statements are based on management's current expectations, and the actual events or results may differ materially and adversely from these expectations for a variety of reasons. We refer you to the documents the company files from time-to-time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the company's annual report on Form 10-K, its quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and its current reports on Form 8-K. These documents identify important risk factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections and other forward-looking statements. As a reminder, a webcast replay of this call will be available on the Investors section of our website. I will now turn the call over to Zhenya, Sera Prognostic's President and CEO. Zhenya?

Evguenia Lindgardt

Management

Thank you, Peter, and good afternoon, everyone. During 2024 and starting strong in 2025, we effectively executed on our stated plan of putting in place the necessary steps to grow Sera's business and shareholder value, that included building our evidence portfolio, building awareness, and seeking publication of clinical trial results to drive adoption and inclusion in care guidelines in the future. I'm pleased to report that we have made solid progress on each of these. We believe we are now poised to take advantage of a new phase following pivotal PRIME study results to pursue evidence growth opportunities. Towards leveraging the best of these opportunities, we're grateful for the support of our investors and pleased to have successfully executed our fund raise last month to help fund these endeavors. Added to our strong debt-free balance sheet, this affords us flexibility to cost effectively invest in those with the best potential commercial return on investment to build awareness and adoption of our solution to preterm birth. Speaking of awareness, we were excited to recently share the full results of our PRIME study at the Society for Maternal Fetal Medicine 2025 Pregnancy Meeting on January 31, and during our virtual R&D event later that day. Prior to that, Society for Maternal Fetal Medicine published our abstract as one of just a few late-breaking ones chosen for publication. Furthermore, ours was one of just five studies for which Society for Maternal Fetal Medicine issued a press release out of about 1,200 studies overall reviewed in the Pregnancy Meeting. Let me briefly review compelling data points, Dr. Brian Iriye, maternal- fetal medicine expert at the High Risk Pregnancy Center in Las Vegas and principal investigator for PRIME shared during the January presentation. First of all, Dr. Iriye recapped that the PRIME study was conducted…

Austin Aerts

Management

Thanks, Zhenya, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me review our financial results for the fourth quarter. I'll then touch on our view of operating expenses for the year ahead and our plan to make selective investments that we believe will expand our commercial reach and revenue over time. Net revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $24,000 compared to $41,000 for the fourth quarter of 2023. Total operating expenses for the fourth quarter of $9.4 million were up 6% from $8.9 million for the same period a year ago. Net loss for the quarter was $8.6 million compared to $7.9 million for the same period a year ago. Research and development expenses were $3.1 million, down from $3.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, due primarily to reduced expenses related to our PRIME study, which stopped enrollment at the end of 2023. Selling, general and administrative expenses for the fourth quarter were $6.3 million, up from $5.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, due primarily to focused spending on commercial activities aimed at broadening awareness of the PreTRM test to begin growing test volumes and sales over time. As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash, cash equivalents and available for sale securities of approximately $68.2 million. As noted previously, in February 2025, we raised $57.5 million through a public follow-on offering that allows us to significantly expand our commercial operations in 2025 and beyond, while also securing a cash runway through 2028. Despite the capital markets environment continuing to be extremely challenging, particularly within our space, we believe investors see the promise of what our technology can do to improve the lives of mothers and babies and drive the future growth for Sera. We are thankful for their continued support. We previously communicated that our…

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Dan Brennan from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Dan Brennan

Analyst

Great. Thanks for – thanks for the questions. Maybe just the first one on the three tenants of your plan to get into guidelines. You talked about publishing more information, providing more real-world evidence on health care and economic benefits and then driving clinical community adoption, and getting institutions on board. Can you just elaborate a little bit on each of those and kind of things investors should be looking for in 2025 on each of those fronts, that will give people confidence that you're making progress?

Evguenia Lindgardt

Management

Absolutely. Great question. So first, on the publications front, as you can imagine, with our 5,000 patient trial PRIME, we have unleashed an enormous treasure trove of data and have 19 PIs, who are currently looking at the data and have discussed plans for further analysis of the data set and discussing half a dozen to a dozen potential topics that may end up in additional publications from PRIME data set. We think that the more value can be derived from PRIME data set in new publications. The more evidence will there be in the market about the value of the test and treat strategy of PreTRM test. Of course, PRIME is not the only data set we have. We are looking forward to broader analyses from the other studies that we have conducted, namely, potentially prevent and, of course, any future evidence we generate. So that's on the publication front. Second tenet is real-world evidence. We truly believe that learning how test performs in real world and partnering with leading institutions to study aspects of it, both in different populations in the context of health disparities, for example, will be accretive to adoption and awareness building across the clinical community. So as I mentioned, we are kicking-off first real-world evidence study this year. And with the preeminent (ph) institution, we will absolutely publish on the results of this study and look forward to sharing the outcomes of that work. We're planning to launch more real-world evidence trials and generate a continuous flow of evidence on how well the test is performing. Additionally, we've launched an investigator initiated research program at Society for Maternal Fetal Medicine Meeting in January, and are looking forward to all of the submissions review and communicating back to the investigators on the results of which studies will support come April of this year. We're hoping that the investigator initiated research will also provide a lot of interesting evidence around the test that will help whenever the professional society chooses to review the policy and recommendations on preterm birth care to take into account all of the evidence that these three levers generate. The last tenant, I talked about was generating clinical adoption, of course. As you can imagine, a lot of the early adopter physicians and institutions will put the test to use in real world. And the more adoption we generate, the more, of course, questions will be raised to the professional societies on what is their formal position on utilization of PreTRM test and our screen and test strategy. So we believe that all these three avenues of supporting evidence generation and momentum for PreTRM test will pull forward getting to professional recommendations on how this test should be used in the community.

Dan Brennan

Analyst

Great. Maybe as a follow-up, you talked about in the prepared remarks, Medicaid, you talked about paying for 43% of births. You cited the four states with a focus on Nevada and Louisiana. How do we think about that opportunity ahead of guidelines? So are you -- kind of just maybe elaborate a little bit on the Medicaid opportunity, what your plans are? And if there's any predicates about how Medicaid looks a test like this, is this a multiyear process in order to get Medicaid to pay for this test or could you go faster than that?

Evguenia Lindgardt

Management

Great. Another great question. Well, Medicaid, as you can imagine is our single biggest payer in the United States. And 27% of all inpatient costs that Medicaid covers are related to child birth and neonatal care. So of course, maternal care and neonatal care slice of Medicaid budget is substantial, with tens of billions of dollars that are spent on both the child birth and the first year of baby's life that is covered in most cases by Medicaid. So our test and its very low number needed to screen to save a NICU day and again, very low number to save a NICU admission is an enormous opportunity for Medicaid leaders to reduce Medicaid budget costs without cutting benefits. We think at this moment in time, when, unfortunately, United States has struggled to reduce the rates of preterm births in spite of many innovations in the last couple of decades. We now have both the momentum of the community around clinical breakthrough research, but also focus by Medicaid administrators on cost reduction. We believe that, that momentum of both innovation, support of research and potential to save money will be a catalyst for Medicaid moving faster than usual in covering the innovations that can help the community. So, of course, it will be different state by state, given a different plan shape across the states. But the reason we want to start focusing on the states most hard hit by preterm birth, is that's where it will become a priority for the administrators to adopt innovations that can make a difference in clinical outcomes as well as save on the budget. So we look forward to and are engaging as we speak, with Medicaid plans across the country and are looking forward to coming back to which states would jump in with us to start adopting our screen and treat strategy. It is unusual for a screening test to generate savings and especially generate savings within a year, given the test is administered in the second trimester, and within six months, the baby is born, and therefore, the savings are realized. So we think it could be not a multiyear affair, but we could make some really nice inroads even this year. So we'll, of course, keep the community appraised of our progress.

Dan Brennan

Analyst

Perfect. And then maybe just on the guidelines. So between SMFM and ACOG are both important is one more important than the other? And any way to think through given the feedback so far from the PIs and the doctor community in your plans? Is this possible in the next year, two, three or is this something that given predicates could take four, five, six years? Just any thoughts on how investors might contemplate the opportunity for you to get in guidelines?

Evguenia Lindgardt

Management

Great. Well, it's hard to say which society is more important because ACOG and SMFM work together on the guidelines. And specifically on the ACOG Bulletin 234 that governs preterm birth, which is an ACOG bulletin, but Society for Maternal Fetal Medicine is an enormous influencer and partner in developing those guidelines given their expertise in addressing higher risk pregnancies and preterm birth. And in this case, we think that they will work together. There are precedents when Society for Maternal Fetal Medicine went ahead with practice advisory separately for ACOG, but given how important preterm birth is to the community, we think they will very, very likely work together on it and will be equally important. Hence, we're engaging with both sets of experts and opinion leaders from both societies. Now as far as the feedback so far from opinion leaders, that we are hearing, of course, everybody is eager to dig into the data, like, investors and analysts, we frequently get the question, when is the publication coming? To which our answer is, we don't know quite yet, but we're working very hard on it. And hopefully, it is imminent in the coming months. Happy to dive deeper into the questions around the data, which you can probably anticipate questions like what subpopulations, for example, first-time moms or second, third time moms, are there performance differences for the screen and treat strategy, other differences in the usage of particular intervention levers like aspirin, etc., etc. But we are working with our principal investigators to see them the questions that we receive and hope that they pick them up and address them in the publications. What RPI is saying, all of our principal investigators are incredibly committed to bringing innovative solutions and bringing great research and rigorous science to…

Dan Brennan

Analyst

Great. Maybe last one, sorry, I'm asking so many. Maybe one for Austin. Just on the cash, the cash on the balance sheet today and basically the burn, which is going up a bit, which makes sense. Just again, walk us through how far in advance -- or how far out do you think the cash on the balance sheet will last? What are some of the key assumptions that go into that? Any color on kind of where the costs are going to this year? Thank you.

Austin Aerts

Management

Yeah. Thanks, Dan. So we think we have cash runway into 2028 based on our current operating plans, which as we stated in the prepared remarks, includes a range of cash operating expenses this year of $30 million to $35 million. How much -- where we're in that range will be dictated by the opportunities that are presented for us commercially. The vast majority of that increased spend over last year's roughly $29 million is going to be dedicated to commercial investment. Over the next two or three years, certainly, we would expect that to be the majority of where operating expenses increase is in commercial investment. And so to get to that 2028 mark, we're looking at some increase in spend over the next three or four years, and offset by some, net assumption or some very modest revenue assumptions as well, which we certainly hope will be much greater than modest over that time period.

Dan Brennan

Analyst

Are you going to share any details on the revenue assumptions or no?

Austin Aerts

Management

Not at this time.

Dan Brennan

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Brackmann from William Blair. Your line is now open.

Margarate Boeye

Analyst

Hi, everyone. This is Maggie Boeye on for Andrew Brackmann. Thanks for taking our questions. Maybe first, if you could just dive into those commercial investments you were just talking about. What can we expect for 2025 and here on out for what the focus will be? What you're thinking about how big your commercial organization needs to be as you continue to build PRIME evidence and drive adoption of PreTRM? Thanks.

Evguenia Lindgardt

Management

Hi, Maggie, and good to talk to you. And absolutely, let me start with the last question, the size of commercial organization and how we are aiming to grow it to go after the commercial opportunities. We are first building out our sales organization with the regional account managers to the driving on the ground, the adoption in the selected target states that we are addressing with building a strong ecosystem of influence between the opinion leaders, the clinicians, organizing speaker programs, unlocking institutional buy-in and adoption by individual clinicians and largest practices in those states. As you can imagine, we are teaming with our partners on the payer front, potentially on the public payer side as well, to make sure that the awareness and policy coverage is there to support their efforts. Second, of course, is going to be on the medical liaison front. We brought in a head of medical liaison group last year and are looking forward to potentially adding to the field presence in selected states as needed -- that role. We also grew our revenue cycle organization last year, and we're aiming to optimize that this year depending on how fast is the uptake. Revenue cycle, as you know, is going to be critical for bringing the revenue in and collecting on the payments. Last but not least, potentially building out our payer group to ensure that we are expanding reimbursement and working with both payers, government and commercial payers as well as employers benefit design, consultants and others, so that's just to start. Of course, as momentum grows and more states become in focus, we will expand our commercial presence in waves as we go into more and more geographies. Hope this helps.

Margarate Boeye

Analyst

Got it. Thanks. Yeah. Thanks so much. And then just maybe one on the pipeline. Can you talk about what we should be expecting for pipeline initiatives in the near term? And just kind of level set us on where things stand around the launch of the time to birth assay? And then just relatedly, any update on how you're thinking about the pricing of that test when launched? Thank you.

Evguenia Lindgardt

Management

Definitely. So, as we've talked about before, we've prioritized two products from our pipeline to bring to market near term, that's the Time to Birth product, which we are targeting in the second half of this year. And the second one is the Predictive Analytics product, which we are beta testing across the country and are hoping to get to production scale release in the second half of this year as well. In terms of pricing of the Time to Birth product is truly a consumer directed test, even though it will be helpful for both consumers and physicians. So as an immunoassay, it's priced at $150 or around that. So it should be accessible and affordable.

Margarate Boeye

Analyst

Great. Thanks so much for taking our question.

Evguenia Lindgardt

Management

Thank you for the questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. So I'm going to go ahead and turn the call over to Mr. Zhenya Lindgardt for closing comments. Ma'am, please go ahead.

Evguenia Lindgardt

Management

Thank you, operator. Thank you all for attending our call today. We are really pleased with our progress during the year, and of course, more recently in being able to share the results of PRIME as we await expected publication of the full study results, which will provide more evidence of the value of utilizing our PreTRM Test and Treat strategy. We're thankful for the support of our investors, including those who participated in our recent fund raise that see the great opportunity that lays ahead for Sera. I’ll now turn it back over to the operator to conclude the call. Operator?

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you, everyone for your participation. You may now disconnect.