Earnings Labs

Stifel Financial Corp. (SF)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 15, 2012

$77.50

-0.82%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, my name is Mimi, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fourth Quarter Earnings 2011 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Chief Financial Officer Zemlyak, you may begin your conference.

James Zemlyak

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. This is Jim Zemlyak, CFO of Stifel Financial Corp. I would like to welcome everyone to our conference call today to discuss the fourth quarter 2011 and year end results. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. If you'd like a copy of today's presentation, you may download slides from www.stifel.com. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind listeners that this presentation may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are not statements of fact or guarantees of performance. They are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual future results to differ materially from those discussed in the statements. To supplement our financial statements presented in accordance with GAAP, we use certain non-GAAP measures of financial performance and liquidity. These non-GAAP measures should only be considered together with the company's GAAP results. And finally, for a discussion of risks and uncertainties in our business, please see the business factors affecting the company and the financial services industry in the company's annual report on Form 10-K and MD&A of results in the company's quarterly reports on 10-Q. With that, I would like to turn the call over to the Chairman, CEO and President of Stifel Financial, Ron Kruszewski.

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you, Jim. Welcome to everyone on the call, and thank you for your continued interest and support in Stifel Financial. As is our practice, we will supplement our call with slides that Jim told you that are downloadable from our website or that you may be following if you called in to the service that provides the slides. So starting with the chairman's comments, we are pleased to report that 2011 represented our 16th consecutive year of record net revenues. This is significant given continued headwinds and the uncertainty in the marketplace, particularly in the second half of the year. We thank our clients for their support and our dedicated associates who strive to distinguish Stifel by providing superior service and execution. Our fourth quarter results mark an improvement from the prior quarter, but are tough in comparison with the record year ago fourth quarter. Stifel Bank's assets continue to grow, contributing to our overall results, and investment banking rebounded, particularly in advisory due to increased activity at year end. Financial advisor recruiting has picked up, and we welcomed the Stone & Youngberg associates to our platform during the quarter, who made an accretive impact. Looking forward, we remain committed to growing our businesses and are well positioned to take advantage of opportunities. The next slide looks at our quarterly results. The second half of 2011 proved to be a challenging period for the markets, businesses and frankly, the overall economy. Our results reflect this challenge. While we are pleased with the contributions from our global wealth segment, our institutional group was not immune to the lower volumes, cautious risk taking and frankly, many of the issuers remaining on the sidelines during a volatile second half of the year. Turning to our result. As compared with the year ago…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Patrick Davitt from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

M. Patrick Davitt

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

It looks like retail investor activity was pretty weak in the fourth quarter. Have you seen any improving trends there given the market rally and a little bit better economic data?

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Yes. It was muted, of course. I mean, yes. But the market still seems to be marked by events, which kick sentiment it bounces like a bobber on either side of positive or negative. But overall, we've had a nice start to 2012.

M. Patrick Davitt

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

And you mentioned the comp kind of true up to protect the franchise. I wouldn't imagine there would be that much pressure this year, though. What kind of drove that decision? Can you parse that out a little? From a competitive standpoint.

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

I think at times you have to be able to smooth some of the compensation over years. It was only difficult from the perspective of how much contribution was down. Our contribution was down 50%, and while that will often yield lower comp ratios and then it even declines more than that in comp, and so we just had the viewpoint that we needed to balance and smooth some of that. It was a difficult year regardless of what we did. There's nothing we could do. But I wasn't so much focused on the fact that, hey, you can't go anywhere, than trying to be fair. I mean just, yes, from what I've seen on the Street, the amount of cash compensation paid was next to nothing. Patrick, we want to be fair, and we want to take a viewpoint not on an annual basis, but we want to take it across market cycles. So I think we did the right thing, and it wasn't crazy, but it certainly on a quarterly comparison basis it's significant -- 6 points.

M. Patrick Davitt

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

And the loan book grew 59% last year. It looks like you still have a lot of capacity there. Do you think that pace can continue?

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

I do. It's on a risk-adjusted basis. We do not set out with any quantitative goals to add x number of loans, but as our franchise grows, as we grow our capabilities and we get better at having the bank look at some of our corporate opportunities on the investment banking side, each day that goes by we get better at that, and frankly the landscape of opportunity is very large compared to what we're doing. And all that said, we try to always grow -- especially when you're building your balance sheet and your leverage. We grow on a balanced and measured basis.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick O'Shaughnessy from Raymond James.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Analyst · Patrick O'Shaughnessy from Raymond James

First question, I guess following up on the last question, in the fourth quarter Stifel Bank's assets were flat, actually slightly down a little bit from the third quarter. Your deposits were slightly down from the third quarter. Was that just basically a function of not sweeping cash from the brokerage into the bank and taking a breath for the quarter?

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Patrick O'Shaughnessy from Raymond James

I'd say part of it is -- can be prepayments, and you have to reinvest proceeds and opportunities the way we were looking at it, whether or not we were willing to contribute more capital in that timeframe to the bank. A number of factors went into that, but again, we have no stated goals to grow the bank. As I've said many times, if we wanted to grow the footings in the bank 50% next quarter, we could do it, subject to regulatory approval of course, but it's merely a factor of us -- how many deposits do we want to sweep into the bank. So there was no underlying trend to the fourth quarter being relatively flat.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Analyst · Patrick O'Shaughnessy from Raymond James

And then following up on that, on Slide 13 you talk about your mix of interest earning assets in the bank, and nonagencies were basically flat, agencies were down quarter-over-quarter, commercial loans were up. Can we view that as maybe a little bit of risk on within the bank, or what specifically was taking place that would explain that mix shift this quarter?

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Patrick O'Shaughnessy from Raymond James

I think overall, as I look forward, the thought that -- the percentage of our increase in the bank, that would come from agency MBS type investments, versus what will hopefully come from commercial C&I type lending. I would think, no I would hope, that the C&I lending portion will be a bigger percentage than it has in the past. Is that a risk on trade? Well, certainly compared to a AAA investment. At least I hope it is. I mean, our -- on a risk-adjusted basis, we believe that it's a better use of our capital. So I think that's a long-winded answer to agree with you.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Analyst · Patrick O'Shaughnessy from Raymond James

Fair enough, and then one last, if I could. At the start of the quarter, you guys authorized another 3 million shares in your repurchase authorization, if I recall correctly. According to my math, it looks like you guys did not repurchase any shares during the quarter. If you could just kind of talk about your capital return plans for 2012, I think that would be helpful.

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Patrick O'Shaughnessy from Raymond James

Again, there's a lot of factors that go into whether or not you're in market for your shares. And I'm really not going to comment on those though. We did purchase a number of shares in the third quarter. Overall, we seek to have a capital structure where we believe, given normal markets and our operating margins, that we can achieve 15% ROE across market cycles. So our capital plan is evidenced by the fact that we did -- we raised debt instead of equity, and we used that debt -- we'll use that debt in various manners. But on balance, we're funding our growth, or managing our cap structure with an eye toward reducing equity, increasing leverage, albeit still one of the most conservative balance sheets in the industry. But you can't achieve 15% ROEs levered 1:1. You need to have some leverage. So I think as we go forward we have recognized that we need to manage our equity base. Through the crisis we husbanded capital and we grew it faster than maybe we were growing our business. But going forward, we're certainly cognizant -- associates own over 40% this firm and we understand the importance of return on equity.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Devin Ryan.

Devin Ryan

Analyst · Devin Ryan

So you spoke a little bit about FA recruiting picking up. Just love to get your thoughts on what you see driving that, and what channels you're seeing, or what type of firms you're seeing the most interest from.

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Devin Ryan

I think in general it's picking up, okay? To get into details on which firms and all of that probably not appropriate at any time, especially on this call. So I'll politely duck that portion of your question. But it's been a competitive and difficult market, and it has certainly, in my experience in this business -- I understand the ingredients, which contribute to muted recruiting, which was certainly there in the latter half of '10 and throughout 2011. What I can say is that the environment for recruiting is improving. And that is -- there's many fathers to an increase in recruiting environment, but I'll leave it that the recruiting environment is improving.

Devin Ryan

Analyst · Devin Ryan

Got it. And then just on Stone & Youngberg, you gave us a little bit of details there, but I'd just love to get a sense of how that business is trending, maybe relative to your original expectations when you guys did the acquisition. I think the original range was somewhere in the $4 million to $6 million a quarter pretax based on I think that's what they had been generating previously. So would just love any color there. And then also, I was just a bit surprised the noncomp expenses declined sequentially despite Stone & Youngberg, so any additional comments there would also be appreciated.

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Devin Ryan

Well listen, Stone & Youngberg we closed in October. It's hard to immediately snap your fingers and have productivity in everything immediately though. It took us -- which was I think a yeoman's job on behalf of everyone, it took us about 30 days to get them fully integrated. But that 30 days also impacts productivity and a number of things. It was -- Stone & Youngberg was accretive. Based on what we issued, I'll say that. But I'm not going to comment yet on run rate, because I don't think it would be -- I don't think it's fair, and I just don't want to comment on it other than I'm pleased with the start to Stone & Youngberg. Noncomp, I think I said noncomp, we did -- I think we were looking at our expenses. We did have a recovery of a litigation accrual that -- but not necessarily all the explanation of that. But noncomp expenses were there. I think going forward I'll probably give some thoughts as to what we see going forward. And we said -- in fact, I'll kind of do it now, I think, and we'll update it. But we had said 332 to 335. I would say 340-ish, 340 to 345 going forward. Some of this is volume related, so you've got to understand that if volumes go up more than we think then you could see an increase in that. But hopefully that gives you some idea. Versus we had said 328 million to 335 million, I think I said last year.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from David Trone from JMP Securities.

David Trone

Analyst · JMP Securities

I had a quick question related to a previous one, and if this is overly sensitive then I apologize in advance. But we all know that you were looking at Morgan Keegan. Are you legally allowed to pick up any other folks, or do you have some kind of a nonsolicit?

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · JMP Securities

David, the way those agreements work, if they even exist, is that you can't even talk about whether they even exist, and so overly sensitive question. In general, I don't feel any real restraints to any recruiting.

David Trone

Analyst · JMP Securities

And then kind of an antithesis question here. Equity volumes on the cash equity side are continuing to be pretty weak, and I know you guys have a pretty big footprint. You're one of the biggest research footprints in America. And so have you ever looked at that and thought, gee, do we need to maybe rethink our size?

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · JMP Securities

I often look at Jim Zemlyak and wonder if I need CFO. So -- he's sitting here. Come on, David, you always look at your relative size, without looking at people, in difficult markets. And that's not limited to research. That's across the firm. My general experience and where I grew up and our success and sort of my Pavlovian response to difficult markets is to hold the course and to be -- to continue to invest appropriately. I believe that the future for our business is brighter -- and maybe my viewpoints are more bright than what other people think. I believe that we are well positioned to gain market share and I am not in any mindset to dismantle what we've built over the last 15 years, primarily the last 5 years, at the altar of what I believe to be relatively short-term market dislocations.

David Trone

Analyst · JMP Securities

Okay, sounds good. And then 1 more question. This has been about a year since -- a little bit more, than you closed on Thomas Weisel, and looking back, how happy are you with the cultural integration and efficiency and those types of things?

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · JMP Securities

Well, the cultural integration I am thrilled with. I mean, I just spent a few days at our tech conference, which was well attended, spent a lot of time with our tech experts, a lot of which are my partners from TWP. Just spent time at a board meeting with members of their board and management team. I think culturally that integration has been as good as any integration that we have done. In terms of the business, I was dead in love with the entire investment banking business a quarter ago, and this quarter -- the one just ended was -- I liked them a lot. The point being that it's a tough business, but we have a fantastic franchise, which is well positioned to do a lot of business if we get a decent market. So long and short, that Weisel transaction was fantastic from a business perspective, better from a cultural fit and I don't think we've yet to see the power of that franchise.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Alim Shaikh from KBW.

Alim Shaikh

Analyst · KBW

As you mentioned we've seen the market stabilize in recent months, with lower volatility, and I was just wondering, in your conversations with companies, are you starting to see improved confidence, or maybe a change in sentiment in terms of issuing equity versus debt, which has been pretty attractive?

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · KBW

Certainly the debt markets have been very attractive. That said, there's a lot of sort of re-equitizing of many industry sectors that has to occur. So has there been improved sentiment? Sure, in many ways led by the confidence in the debt markets. But there has been. The question is last year at this time I would have said kind of the same thing. We got off to a good start and things kind of came to a halt that April timeframe or whenever it was. So today, yes, I'm encouraged by the start, but not does a start equal a finish, right? But certainly the sentiment's better.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Hugh Miller from Sidoti & Company.

Hugh Miller

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

I guess a bit of a follow-up on, color on so far you guys had mentioned in the first quarter you are seeing, on the retail side of the business, a little bit of a pickup. I guess we've yet to kind of see positive inflows for the industry in equities. I just was wondering if you could give some color on kind of where you're seeing the strength from the retail business, and I guess what you think has to happen in order for us to get to an environment where retail clients are a little bit more interested in putting money to work in equities.

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

We saw that at the beginning of last year. I think it's an overall -- the inflows plus -- I think, that we have had inflows. I mean, the market's up a fair amount from the October lows. And we have seen an increase certainly on our Global Wealth Management in the percentage of equity business versus fixed, etc. I need to see some increased flows in the overall equity flows of the institutional business, which I guess I haven't seen the recent data so I don't want to comment. But I think that where we need to see a little more confidence is for the institutional business to believe that there's a consistent inflow, where they can allocate capital not around existing positions but to new positions and have some conviction. And that uncertainty, I see in sort of the malaise that's occurring in the equity flow business, that coupled with some of the shift in trading platforms. But I certainly don't see what I would deem a significant conviction to the equity side. I think there's a lot of protection around redemptions, frankly. So I think that needs to change.

Hugh Miller

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

And just another question on the recruiting side. Obviously you've mentioned how things are picking up here, you're getting a little bit more excited. Are discussions over upfront money changing at all from what you're talking about? And any adjustments you're seeing from peers? Is anyone getting a little bit more aggressive or less aggressive on upfront money?

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

I would say in general that while we haven't really changed what we've offered, I think that what we have offered has become relatively more attractive for a variety of reasons. So that's what we're seeing. I mean, some of things got crazy, and while there's pockets of craziness out there, there's also a -- there's segments of FAs that are becoming more and more disfranchised every day. And so that's what we're seeing. I hopeful that -- we didn't have a bad recruiting year last year. On many firms, I think, we've hired 180 some people or something like that. A lot of firms would -- our side would think that that was good, but for us and our historical recruiting, that was low. And while we don't have numerical targets, I'd like to see, and I believe the recruiting will pick up.

Hugh Miller

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

And I guess as you've obviously raised the debt at this point, you're talking about the deployment of capital, are there areas in the business right now with what you see the environment shaping up that you get a little bit more excited about deploying that capital into?

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

I think the capital can be used to sort of increase our overall leverage. Again, I say that always guarded, because I don't want to sound like we're just betting the farm. We're talking 3:1 leverage going somewhat higher than that, which I think we need to do. You do that by utilizing leverage and sort of double-leveraging it into the bank. We have very, very high capital ratios, but within the bank you need equity in the holding company. Obviously you've got ratios. So I can see that being utilized partially to increase what we're doing in the bank, and I can see it being used to appropriately change our capitalization structure. And I can also see it certainly being used to take advantage of opportunities and recruiting opportunities. The mix of all of that is undetermined at this time and it will depend on what opportunities present themselves.

Hugh Miller

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

And then last question I had is just more of a housekeeping one. It seems as though in the quarter within the GWM business that the other income revenue line item just seemed exceptionally strong, at about $10 million in the quarter. I was just wondering if you had any color on what was kind of driving that.

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

I think relatively, there's a number of things, but probably the single biggest item there might have been loan originations in terms of fee income. It was a strong quarter.

Hugh Miller

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

Primarily at the bank, got you.

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Sidoti & Company

It's not that big relative to all the numbers, but I understand that line item it might be.

Operator

Operator

Your last question comes from the line of John Masi from Rudman Capital.

John Masi

Analyst · Rudman Capital

Two quick questions. The first, can you talk about staffing level trends in your senior bankers, both at Thomas Weisel and then across the business? And then secondly, synergies from Thomas Weisel maybe relative to your initial targets? I know this is similar to something that's been asked, but just looking for a little bit more color.

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Rudman Capital

Well, I mean, I think our staffing among MDs is consistent. We've hired some nice hires, both here and on the continent a little bit. I think we're obviously somewhat guarded considering the environment. Synergies, I think first of all on the deal front the synergies are we're simply doing deals we never would have done before without Weisel, and vice versa. We sit in meetings and we say we're doing this deal and some of the Weisel guys will say, well, we never did a deal like that sector. And say, financial institutions, and we're doing deals with them that we've never did before, because we weren't in it. So the synergies on the deals, on that side are -- they were evident the day we did the deal, they're evident every day we do deals, they're evident today. The synergies in terms of culture I've already talked about. They're phenomenal. And the synergies as it related to cost, we've achieved all of our cost synergies and have met all of our expectations. It's just been a nice transaction that the results of which are difficult to measure in this kind of environment, or at least the environment we had in '11. I hope that answers your question. I don't really even -- I guess the best way I can talk about the synergies of Thomas Weisel is I don't even think about the separates of Thomas Weisel and Stifel. It's one firm.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I turn the call back to Ron Kruszewski.

Ronald J. Kruszewski

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Well, you can turn it back to me. I feel like I've been talking for an hour. So listen, thanks everyone. Thanks for your confidence and all that you've done in terms of the associates on this call and our shareholders. I look forward to a better 2012, better clarity on economic policy and tax policy and things that can provide a foundation for some not only economic growth, but some stock market growth that we really over a 10-year period really haven't had except volatility. And I think that if we get those things our company, your company, is well-positioned to not only deliver shareholder value but gain market share. With that, I'll talk to everyone next quarter and thank you for your time and attention. Goodbye.