Ole Hjertaker
Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead
Yes. I think, we have got two levels, I would say to that question. If you're a liner operator, you have your, call it running expenses think your vessels, which is, either renting them, owning them yourself, running them and paying for the fuel. And the other is, how can they get effectively a fuel surcharge from their customers. And I think generally most of the liner companies have positioned themselves to be quite -- get a significant compensation for the expected increase in fuel costs count 2020. But of course, as we all know, if every dollar saved on the cost side go straight to the bottom line. So therefore, several of the large container lines have focused on installing scrubbers and most of the scrubbers that are committed on the vessels we own are container ships on long-term charters to liner operators. Due to confidentiality process, we cannot specifically disclose which vessel it is. But I would say generally it's the larger vessels where you see most of the -- we call it fuel oil, call it consumption. And just to give you some sort of -- some feel for the numbers, with the forward rate currently of around $200 per ton. You can see an annual saving for larger container ships and this is by that I say sort of around 9,000 TEU/NOK. You can see a payback time effectively of less than one year. A large container ships, say of 20,000 TEU would consume around 35,000 tons per day on, I would say, normalized speed adjusted for days at sea, while sort of 9,000 to 10,000 would have a consumption of around 22,000 -- 23,000 tons per year. So matching that up with the savings, again at these levels, we're talking say around $7 million savings for a very large container ship and maybe $4 million, $4.5 million saving on a $9,000 to $10,000 TEU set. So this can be very significant for the liner companies. So the question is that, of course, if you are liner company, how much of the fuel surcharge will you be able to keep for yourself and how much of that will you have to share with your customers and that is of course down to the competitive landscape. What do I think, we will see also is an added effect also in this segment because of the number of vessels that is expected to go in force proper retrofitting and the time that it will take both during the actual job, but also the rotation effect of taking it out of service before it started into service. You could see a significant the utilization impact of this, which should also benefit hopefully the -- on the cost side for these liner operators.