Earnings Labs

The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW)

Q2 2008 Earnings Call· Sat, Jul 19, 2008

$320.93

+1.02%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. Thank you for joining the Sherwin-Williams Company’s review of the second quarter 2008 financial results and expectations for the third quarter and full year. With us on today’s call are Chris Connor, Chairman CEO; Sean Hennessy, Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO; John Ault, Vice President, Corporate Controller; and Bob Wells, Vice President, Corporate Communications. This conference call is being webcast simultaneously in listen-only mode by VCall via the Internet at www.sherwin.com. An archived replay of this webcast will be available at www.sherwin.com beginning approximately two hours after this conference call concludes and will be available until Wednesday, August 6, 2008 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time. This conference call will include certain forward-looking statements as defined under U.S. Federal securities laws with respect to sales, earnings, and other matters. Any forward-looking statements speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. A full declaration regarding forward-looking statements is provided in the company’s earnings release, transmitted earlier this morning. After the review of second quarter results, we will open the session to questions. I will now turn the call over to Bob Wells.

Robert J. Wells

Management

Thanks, Claudia. In order to allow more time for questions, we’ve provided balance sheet items and other selected information on our website, www.sherwin.com, under investor relations second quarter press release. Summarizing overall company performance for second quarter 2008 versus second quarter 2007, consolidated net sales increased $31.4 million, or 1.4%, to $2.23 billion, due to strong sales by our global group and acquisitions that were partially offset by sales declines in the paint stores group and consumer group. Acquisitions completed since June 30, 2007 increased net sales in the quarter by 2.4%. Favorable currency translation rate added another 1.1% to second quarter sales. Consolidated gross profit dollars decreased $13.7 million for the quarter to $972.9 million. Gross margin decreased 130 basis points to 43.6% of sales from 44.9% in the second quarter last year. Selling, general and administrative expenses increased to 30.4% of sales in the second quarter this year from 30.3% last year. An impairment charge of $23.9 million in the second quarter resulted primarily from trademark impairments related to soft sales in some acquired trademarks tied closely to the new residential market. Interest expense net of interest and investment income increased $4.2 million compared to second quarter last year. Consolidated profit before taxes in the quarter decreased $47 million, or 15.5%, compared to the second quarter ’07, to $256.2 million. Our tax rate in the second quarter was 33%, compared to 33.2% in the second quarter of ’07. For full year 2008, we expect our effective tax rate to be comparable to last year’s rate of 33%. Consolidated net income decreased by $30.9 million to $171.7 million, from $202.6 million in the second quarter of 2007. Net income as a percent of sales was 7.7%, down from 9.2% in the second quarter last year. Diluted net income per…

Christopher M. Connor

Management

Thanks, Bob and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. You know, at the beginning of 2008, we knew that our plans for sales growth and earnings improvement would face some very significant challenges -- the likelihood of continuing turmoil in the domestic housing market, raw material cost inflation driven by rising petroleum prices, slowing commercial construction activity, a weakening domestic economy, and declining consumer confidence, to name just a few. And in fact, these were the realities we faced during the second quarter and first half of this year. Consequently, the demand for coatings products across North America continued to deteriorate and the cost of producing, transporting, and selling these products continued to rise. The good news is that every dark cloud has a silver lining. The actions we’ve taken in response to the difficult market conditions we faced this year we believe will make the company stronger, more competitive, and more profitable in the years ahead. They will unlock new sources of cash, further streamline our operations, and position the company to better capitalize on the eventual recovery that we expect in this market. Despite the lower sales volume in the quarter, our working capital ratio, defined as accounts receivable plus inventories minus payables to sales, was flat compared to last year at 14.1%. The combination of responsive production planning that held inventories in line with sales volume and prudent management of receivables and payables contributed to improvement of $44.3 million to net operating cash in the first half. Operating cash decreased by only $8 million to $262.8 million, despite a drop of almost $65 million in net income in the first six months. The contribution from working capital offset most of the shortfall from earnings. Free cash flow, operating cash minus CapEx and dividends, was flat…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Saul Ludwig with Keybanc Capital. Please state your question.

Saul Ludwig - Keybanc Capital

Analyst · Keybanc Capital. Please state your question

Good morning, guys. Impressive results considering the impairment charges. When you provided the guidance the last time, did you have embedded in that guidance the knowledge of the $23 million impairment charges? And in thinking about the guidance you’ve given for the rest of the year, does that include any known additional impairment or special items?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Keybanc Capital. Please state your question

At that time when we put our forecast out of $1.40 to $1.50, it did have an impairment. As you know, when you take a look at -- when you look at the -- hang on one second. Let me pull this out here, Saul. You know, impairments are taken when the sales volume of a trademark does not support the asset value on the balance sheet at that time, so as acquisitions are integrated, trademarks are phased out and the decline in the value flows through our P&L. When you take a look at the process that we’ve taken this first six months and the integration of some of the acquisitions, and you can see on the segment table that $20 million of this actually went through the stores group, it refers to a lot of the acquisitions that we -- more recent acquisitions. So as we’ve integrated and increased the velocity of that integration, we had a feeling that the sales of those branded products were going to decrease and so we had it in there for the second quarter. For the full year, we’ll watch to see what happens with the sales but it’s hard to -- we don’t have a specific forecast for the impairment for the second half.

Saul Ludwig - Keybanc Capital

Analyst · Keybanc Capital. Please state your question

So there’s no impairment charge in your second half outlook, so to speak?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Keybanc Capital. Please state your question

That’s true.

Saul Ludwig - Keybanc Capital

Analyst · Keybanc Capital. Please state your question

Okay, good. Second question, I noticed that in the quarter, your environmental expense fell sharply from $7 million to $1 million, or from $8 million to $1 million this year, which certainly helped earnings. I see last year in the third quarter, environmental expense was like $14 million. How do you -- and then $6 million in the fourth quarter, so you had $20 million in environmental costs in the back end of the year last year. It seems to be running much, much less this year. How do you think about that? Granted, it’s hard to estimate precisely but in your guidance, how are you thinking about environmental costs?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Keybanc Capital. Please state your question

Right now, and as you’ve said, a year ago environmental costs in the second, third quarter were a little higher than the prior year. This year, a little lower. We do look at this. We have a team of environmental attorneys that are working on environmental problems that we have inside the company. As we look at those, we feel that we will have some environmental expense in the second half of the year but we really don’t forecast that line by line. But we do have some environmental in there for the second half of the year.

Saul Ludwig - Keybanc Capital

Analyst · Keybanc Capital. Please state your question

-- last year, maybe?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Keybanc Capital. Please state your question

Probably less than last year.

Saul Ludwig - Keybanc Capital

Analyst · Keybanc Capital. Please state your question

And then just finally, what was your raw material -- let’s say unit raw material cost increase second quarter versus second quarter this year?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Keybanc Capital. Please state your question

Hang on, Saul. I’ll have to pull that out. We’ll give you that answer in a second.

Saul Ludwig - Keybanc Capital

Analyst · Keybanc Capital. Please state your question

Thank you. You can go on to the next question then.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with J.P. Morgan. Please state your question.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

Good morning. Was your volume decrease on a consolidated basis in the second quarter greater or less than your volume decrease in the first quarter, in gallon terms, I guess? Maybe that’s the way to put it.

Christopher M. Connor

Management

The units, the movement in our units were slightly below the first quarter but not dramatically different.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

So is it fair to say that in rough terms, maybe your volumes were down 4% and your prices up 2%? Is that the right -- is that an order of magnitude that seems correct to you?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

Directionally, that’s correct, Jeff.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

And I assume that what you would expect is the pricing to accelerate as you issue these new increases -- do you see the volumes in the second half as being comparable to the volume decrease in the first half? Are you more worried or less worried or can’t you tell?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

I think it’s a little early to make that call. I think the guidance that we’ve given, that we expect sales to be slightly lower in the second half would indicate that it’s possible they could go down further.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

And all things being equal, will you expect your raw materials to really step up in the third quarter versus the second quarter?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

Yes.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

I don’t know if you noticed, but there’s some possible consolidation among your acrylic suppliers.

Christopher M. Connor

Management

Wow, we hadn’t heard.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

What do you make of that? And do you think that that -- you know, is that neutral for Sherwin or negative or positive?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

Well, time will tell. I guess I would comment on Dow and Roman Haus that both of these companies have had longstanding relationships with Sherwin-Williams. They are important suppliers to us. They’ve been very good companies to deal with and we expect that that relationship will continue and time will tell whether this is a positive, neutral, or negative -- too early to make that call.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

Would you have any interest in integrating into acrylics?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

Again, too early to make that call.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

Too early to make that call -- okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Robert Felice with Gabelli & Company. Please state your question. Robert Felice - Gabelli & Company: Congrats on a nice quarter, a little better than I think everyone had expected. I guess first question, with the threat of the potential liability from lead paint now gone, could you discuss your existing capital structure, whether you feel it’s optimal? And what actions, if any, around a more aggressive buy-back, perhaps an ASR we should expect?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Gabelli & Company

I think we’ve certainly managed our balance sheet and liquidity sources differently since February ’06, the date of the Rhode Island trial verdict. Our philosophy continues to be the same -- we’ll use our cash and balance sheet to increase shareholder value. If you haven’t noticed, we already eliminated the $500 million accounts receivable securitization line of credit, which will lower our liquidity costs. On the balance sheet, this verdict does give us tremendously more options, which we are evaluating. Our current forecast calls for year-end debt to be in the range of that 950 to 975. We haven’t change that yet. When you look at the verdict we received the first week of July, we haven’t really stepped that up, except for the accounts receivable securitization. And that’s also without any additional acquisitions. We do have one acquisition of the [Incam] in Southeast Asia but the acquisitions and buy-back opportunities, we’re going to be watching the stock price and we do have 20 million shares authorization from our board, so I would say that we’ll watch the stock price and we’ll be careful to see what’s happening on the acquisition front, and then we’ll make that decision. Robert Felice - Gabelli & Company: But at this point, no plans for any more aggressive or accelerated buy-back?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Gabelli & Company

No. Robert Felice - Gabelli & Company: Okay. And then, if I look at your first and second quarter earnings, and then your guidance for the full year and for the third quarter, it implied that you expect to have your worst year-over-year earnings comparison in the fourth quarter of the year, something north of 30% decline in EPS. Yet at that point, you’ll have -- you should have the bulk of your pricing in place to offset cost inflation, so I was hoping you could just help me understand that a bit.

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Gabelli & Company

I think when you take a look at the forecast, we have our second half gross margin lower in the second half than in the first half of the year. The first half of the year came in at 43.7; the second quarter came in at 43.6. We have the lowest gross margin in the fourth quarter for one reason -- it’s really that’s when we’re going to take the bulk of the LIFO expense. We’ll see what event we have forecasted right now in the fourth quarter, the -- we’ll see as raw materials continue to roll in, so our gross margin is lower in the third quarter and then lower again in the fourth quarter, but it has to do with LIFO, not the selling prices. Robert Felice - Gabelli & Company: Okay, that’s helpful. And then I guess lastly, you had mentioned, Chris, the high-single-digit price increase. I was hoping maybe you could provide greater clarity around the magnitude of the price increase specifically in the paint stores group?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

I think as we commented in the past, the January and May price increases were both kind of in the mid-single-digit range, and this one that we are going out with right now, it’s going to be in the high-single-digit range. These are being discussed with customers as we speak right now and implemented in the middle of the paint selling season, and we’ll see how well they go. Robert Felice - Gabelli & Company: Okay, and how much of the cumulative pricing has stuck so far? I guess I’m wondering what run-rate you’re at in terms of --

Christopher M. Connor

Management

Yeah, the effect of implementation.

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Gabelli & Company

I would tell you for the company wide, when you look at the company in total, what we’ve said is it usually takes us 12 to 18 months, and between the first -- right now, the first price increases that we implemented in the first of January, we’re running about 50%, 55%, which is normal at this time. The second price increase that we mentioned in stores group were below that, were a little below that because we’re implementing it today. But if you take a look at it, it’s right on pace with prior years and we think eventually we’ll recover this in the marketplace. Robert Felice - Gabelli & Company: So just cuffing the numbers and remembering what they were, it sounds like you are probably running at about a 3%, 3.5% pricing run-rate at this point, is that fair?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Gabelli & Company

Yes, in the month of June. Robert Felice - Gabelli & Company: Great. Thanks so much for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from John Roberts with Buckingham Research. Please state your question.

John Roberts - Buckingham Research

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please state your question

Good morning, guys. A couple of things; why didn’t the range on the guidance narrow as we -- you know, we had $0.50 of range with nine months, and now you have certainty in the quarter just reported. We still have $0.50 of range.

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please state your question

Well, when you take a look at it, when we did put out the $0.50, that was the first week of June, so it’s only four or five weeks ago, and we had a pretty good view of where we were in the second quarter at that time, and that’s why we came in right in the middle of the range, the $1.45. So I think that the volatility of the gross margin, we’re going to wait to see what happens with the gross margin. Jeff asked us about some volume questions and we’ll have more of a view of it here in the third quarter. Third quarter is a very large quarter for us, so I understand what you are saying. You’ve seen the second quarter but we had a pretty good idea of where we were going to come in in the second quarter when we gave that range.

John Roberts - Buckingham Research

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please state your question

And then in the back half of the year, you are going to open more stores than you will close? During the first half, you’ve closed more than you open and now that reverses. Is that going to impact productivity? Productivity has been a pretty good offset for you to help out offset some of the volume weakness.

Christopher M. Connor

Management

That kind of opening schedule is very traditional and historic for us. We’ve always had -- third and fourth quarter have been higher openings for these stores, and I think it speaks to the aggressive nature of the closing, so you are right, that’s going to reverse a little bit. From a productivity standpoint, you know, we’re talking about 20 stores on a basis of over 3,000, so it’s not going to have a material impact.

John Roberts - Buckingham Research

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please state your question

Okay, and then lastly, sometimes the averages -- average volume declines in margins kind of belie the range that you are seeing. Could you maybe give us a sense of where are the worst areas, and are they -- do you have some areas that are down well over double-digit percentages? And what are the strongest areas of the company? Do you have any areas showing double-digit percent kind of volume trends?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

I think in Bob’s comments, we gave some indication geographically about where we are struggling, and I think we made the comment that the Southeastern part of the United States was our poorest performing, and with the exception of that one division, the other three actually had sales gains, including pricing and acquisition support for them, but definitely the Southeastern part of the United States, which for us is the Virginias, the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, and the Caribbean, where the vast majority of the new residential housing market has impacted them, and continues to do so, by the way. We don’t think we have seen the bottom and we don’t think we’ll see the bottom in ’08. We think it deteriorates in ’09, particularly in Florida from the latest data points that we are looking at. So that’s the part of the United States that we are getting hit with the hardest. When we look at it by more of a customer segment, again the new residential component of this business, not only in Southeastern but where there’s new residential -- the West Coast as well continuing to struggle.

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please state your question

John, through June, new residential construction square footage was down more than 40% nationally, and certainly above that in the pockets that Chris mentioned.

John Roberts - Buckingham Research

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please state your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Dmitry Silverstein with Longbow Research. Please state your question.

Jonathan Grassi - Longbow Research

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please state your question

This is Jonathan [Grassi] for Dmitry. Can you first give us your performance in the paint store group and the consumer group versus the overall market? It basically looked like it did better than one of your -- a lot better than one of your competitors who reported this morning. What would you attribute that to?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

Well, first of all, we’re just seeing some of those other numbers come out and we rely on the federal government’s data points, which usually come out several quarters in arrears, so I’m not sure we’re prepared to claim victory just yet on this quarter. Our strategy has been to focus on, primarily through the stores group, on the professional painting contract, and we are bullish on that segment long-term, to the extent that those -- that customer continues to grow and play an important role, we’ll benefit from that. We definitely are taking on the chin on the new residential. We marginally believe that we are gaining share against all of the segments that we are involved in and time will tell whether that continues.

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please state your question

There are a few segments, Jonathan, that we mentioned are doing -- are still holding up okay. Industrial maintenance coatings is holding up okay. Commercial repaint, which is property management sales, in terms of the industry are holding up pretty well. One of the advantages of our stores network is that we can focus the attention of our selling organization on those segments that are holding up, so that’s where they’ve been concentrating their efforts and it may bear out in perhaps a little less negative growth rate than the industry.

Jonathan Grassi - Longbow Research

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please state your question

Okay. Are you seeing a big difference between professional contractors and DIY customers?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

No, both are down.

Jonathan Grassi - Longbow Research

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please state your question

Similarly?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

You know, within reasonable ranges. They are not dramatically different.

Jonathan Grassi - Longbow Research

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please state your question

Okay, and then I guess just one last question regarding Latin America -- have you started to see any deterioration in that market, or is that holding up pretty well still?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

Holding up well for us -- the predominant portion of our business in Latin America is in Brazil. That’s the largest country for us. That economy continues to do well. We have a good presence in that country with architectural, industrial, automotive finishes, as well as some specialty products as well, and no end in site right now.

Jonathan Grassi - Longbow Research

Analyst · Longbow Research. Please state your question

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Prashant Juvekar with Citigroup. Please state your question.

Prashant Juvekar - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup. Please state your question

Good morning. Bob, can you give us some price volume breakdowns in all your three major segments? I mean, that would be helpful if you give that on an ongoing basis.

Robert J. Wells

Management

We’ve never done that, other than to say in somewhat general terms that certainly volumes are down more than sales, which implies that pricing was positive and I think Jeff kind of spit out some numbers earlier in the call, and they are certainly in the range.

Prashant Juvekar - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup. Please state your question

Okay, I’ll follow-up with you on that. You mentioned that you announced the third price increase in paint stores group. The big boxes are not raising prices fast enough, so is their risk that you lose the marginal customer to big boxes?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

You know, that’s always a risk. We pay close attention to that. We’re aided by the fact that Sherwin-Williams products are only available in our own stores, so the apples-to-apples comparison is not something we were concerned about. The quality of the products, the innovation, the continued focus on bringing new products to market also has created a gap anyway in that environment, and of course we’re paying attention. We’re blessed with great competition in this space. The price elasticity demand is important to us; however, we are behaving in our typical traditional fashion, rationally and raising prices to offset raw materials and we’ll continue to do that going forward.

Prashant Juvekar - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup. Please state your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Amy Zhang with Goldman Sachs. Please state your question.

Amy Zhang - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Good morning. Two quick questions; the first one is what’s your year-over-year raw materials cost increase assumption behind your second half ’08 earnings guidance?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Amy, when we talk about raw material costs, we typically comment on the industry, and as you know, at our financial community presentation, we said that we expect year-over-year for the full year raw material costs to be up in the 9% to 14% range. They were certainly less than that in the first half, which implies that they are going to be on the high side of that range in the second.

Amy Zhang - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Okay, and then I guess you’ll prepare for another price hike in the second half of ’08 if we see the raw material costs peak over the next six months?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

That would be the historical way that we’ve dealt with this and you should expect us to continue to do that.

Amy Zhang - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

And then a second question is non-residential construction market -- obviously people have started to worry about that market in the second half ’08, not only the commercial side but also the industrial and institution factors. Can you just remind us how much is Sherwin-Williams exposure to that market? And also, if overall non-residential construction market demand declines by 10% or 20% in the second half ’08, on a year-over-year basis how big of an impact it would be on Sherwin-Williams?

Robert J. Wells

Management

Well, in answer to the first part of the question, we have pretty broad exposure across all new construction segments in the U.S., so we are certainly in those arenas and have substantial share in all of those arenas. Basically what we’ve seen so far is that some of the non-residential markets have already been declining pretty rapidly. The commercial and manufacturing segments are down sharply through the first half. Through June, total non-residential is down about 19% but there is kind of a dichotomy there because at least according to the data we’re looking at, a lot of those institutional components or categories are still holding up well. Educational buildings, public buildings, et cetera are still pretty sharply positive. So we have not seen weakness in those sectors yet. It’s not to say it can’t come but it certainly could. If you look at the breakdown of the industry when you are talking about new construction, you are still only talking about a relatively small piece of the business. You are talking about primarily the architectural coatings market, which is roughly half of the industry in the U.S., so you are excluding all of the industrial segments that are growing pretty well. And then within the architectural segment, new construction only accounts for about 20% of unit volume. So we are going to see pressure in residential and non-residential new construction but it’s pressure we’ve been seeing and it’s a small portion of the overall market.

Amy Zhang - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

So that means in the second half, your second half ’08 EPS guidance, you don’t assume much more pressure from the non-residential construction market, is that right?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

We assume it will continue to diminish but to Bob’s point, the scale of it is relatively small and it’s baked in the forecast we’re giving you.

Amy Zhang - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Okay, understood. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with J.P. Morgan. Please state your question.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

Thanks very much. How are prices going in your consumer business? Do you have any plans to increase prices in the third quarter?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

Yes, Jeff, we have, as we’ve indicated earlier, taken pricing out in our consumer group in the beginning of the year and the comments that I made in my opening remarks were that across all segments, we’re instituting pricing in the July/August time period. That includes our consumer group and that includes the comment that these are in the high-single-digit range.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

Your global business didn’t grow as much as it normally does. Can you talk about some of the weak factors that softened the results this quarter?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

As you know, Jeff, in our global business we have really three different businesses that we include in that. We have our automotive refinish business on a global basis. We have our product finishes or what we call our chemical coatings business on a global basis and then we have our international architectural business, primarily in Latin America. The Latin America and architectural businesses have continued to do very well and trend at the same kind of high performance that we’ve seen in the last several quarters. The softness for global in this particular quarter mainly is coming in the domestic automotive businesses. Refinish business is down as miles are declining with higher oil prices, and some softness in our product finishes business is also domestically.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

In the second quarter, were the volume trends very different month to month, or could you perceive any trend through the quarter, Chris?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

The second quarter, you have to remember, April we didn’t have Easter versus the last year but when you adjust it for April, if you look at April, May, and June, there really was no distinguishable difference. It was relatively -- strength or weakness was across the board.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

And lastly, one of the raw materials that really hasn’t touched the paint industry very much over the past couple of years has been TI02, but there’s been a lot of raw material increase for the TI02 suppliers, or for some of them, notwithstanding the very weak demand environment. Are they having any more luck in pushing through price increases?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

I think the revised guidance that we’ve given now on the industry’s [around] costs likely to be in the 9% to 14% range does include the recent raw material price increases announced in titanium and it would be premature for me to comment on how those are going for them.

Jeff Zekauskas - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · J.P. Morgan. Please state your question

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Gregg Goodnight with UBS. Please state your question.

Gregg Goodnight - UBS

Analyst · UBS. Please state your question

Good morning, all. I’m looking at the interest expense and in light of some of Sean’s comments, what is your guidance for the full year? Do you expect the interest run-rate to sustain or to go down? Can you help us out on that one?

Robert J. Wells

Management

I think that what we mentioned is that the net interest expense, which is interest expense minus the interest income, we believe will be in the low $60 million range, so between $61 million and $63 million for the year.

Gregg Goodnight - UBS

Analyst · UBS. Please state your question

Okay, excellent. Good. The second question is you mentioned, if I recall, that there were 39 new stores opened year-to-date and you expect 100 by the end of the year. Will the bulk of these new openings come in the third quarter, or are they going to be spread out fairly evenly over the rest of the year?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

You know, Gregg, we start every year with the discipline and mindset that we are going to get these open, 25 every quarter on a straight line and despite our best efforts, they always tend to lag toward the back half of the year. A lot of this is driven by a municipality -- building inspectors, et cetera -- that are creating delay in the process. There always seems to be a push to get them in before the year is over. That’s important to developers and landlords, et cetera. So despite our best forecasting, this thing always tends to push towards the back half. My guess is as we sit here right now, we’re thinking we’re probably going to have a pretty equal third and fourth quarter, but the reality and the history would tell you some of the third quarters will lag and the fourth quarter has always been our largest opening quarter.

Gregg Goodnight - UBS

Analyst · UBS. Please state your question

Excellent. Okay, thanks for the help.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Ivy Zelman with Zelman & Associates. Please state your question. Analyst for Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates: This is actually Dennis on for Ivy. My first question just kind of relates to the paint store segment; if you look at the 40 basis point deterioration in margin year over year, can you maybe break down the delta on the growth line versus the SG&A line within that segment?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Zelman & Associates

Well, what we’ve always continually said is we need around a 3% growth rate to just start to see some leverage. So when you see that our external sales for the first six months are about negative 1.2, the sales are probably 30% of the deterioration and 70% of the gross margins. Analyst for Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates: Well, I guess looking at it a different way, would SG&A within that segment be lower year over year?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Zelman & Associates

Not lower year over year but it was well-controlled, and the reason why it’s not probably in the core, what I’ll call core was lower but with the acquisition last year of MAB in June 1st, we had three months versus one month; Columbia had three months versus zero months, so without acquisitions, I’d say it was lower but with the acquisition, it was higher. Analyst for Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates: So the percentage of sales SG&A would have been slightly lower within that segment on a comparable basis and the deterioration would largely be driven by leverage loss and the raw material pressure?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Zelman & Associates

Yes. Analyst for Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates: Okay. And just remembering back to the investor conference, I don’t think the 9% to 14% increase included the most recent Dow announcement. Is there a reason why that didn’t put some upward pressure on that?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

I think we’re waiting to see how that price increase goes in. I mean, the reason we give a range, Dennis, is because there’s a lot of moving parts and the range was up dramatically from our previous range, so it anticipated some future pricing actions. Analyst for Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates: Okay, that’s helpful. And then just lastly, Sean, I missed your comment earlier about the 4Q08 LIFO adjustment. Can you just run through what you were getting at there?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Zelman & Associates

What I’m getting at is that we are a LIFO company. What we do is we have -- we run our company on FIFO and then put in the LIFO reserve. As the raws are increasing this year, as it goes from the lowest raw material increase we are going to experience is the first quarter through the fourth quarter, so the last raw materials are the first ones we’re going to expense through our P&L. So what we do is we put in a forecast and we try to put in what we think are LIFO expenses and we try to straight-line it quarter by quarter but when we look at it, invariably when we have years like this, the fourth quarter, the LIFO expense tends to be higher than any other quarter, as more information comes in, as more and more of the raws change. So we just have more LIFO expense in our forecast in the fourth quarter than any other quarter. Analyst for Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates: Okay, so I guess one way to think about it, if you had perfect forecasting, the current gross margin would be slightly lower and the fourth quarter would be slightly higher than what you will probably ultimately impact on the fourth?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Zelman & Associates

Yes, and what ends up happening because of our sales curve, that higher expense creates a higher impact because of the fourth quarter, because of the -- well, sales. And then -- I’m sorry, go ahead. Analyst for Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates: No, that’s okay. Continue on.

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Zelman & Associates

I was just going to mention, I wanted to mention the [SOL]. The sheet that I have here just shows the raw materials versus the forecast and the raw material variance for the second quarter was immaterial, so it was right on our forecast. I just don’t have that forecast number. Analyst for Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates: And Sean, did [Incam] close?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Zelman & Associates

No, it did not close in the first or second quarter. We believe it will close in the third quarter. Analyst for Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates: Thanks a lot, guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Eric Bosshard with Cleveland Research Company. Please state your question.

Eric Bosshard - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research Company. Please state your question

Good morning. Two things; first of all, the LIFO effect, Sean, that you just talked about in 4Q, do we continue with a difficult year-over-year LIFO comparison when we get into 1Q and 2Q of ’09 as well?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Cleveland Research Company. Please state your question

No, because usually we’ll reset the standards and then it won’t get -- it will go right into our standards. But you are absolutely right; we believe the first and second quarter will be our -- right now, the way the run-rate is, the raw material hurdle we’ll have will be the highest in the first and second quarter of ’09.

Eric Bosshard - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research Company. Please state your question

Okay, and then secondly, the price increase, the third price increase in eight months I think is unprecedented in your history. I know you’ve had three in 15 months, or something like that, but how is it going, if you could give us your perspective on the feedback from your customers and also from a competitive standpoint, how you feel like that’s going?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

I’ll comment on that, Eric. Two days ago, we had all of our store leadership in from around the United States to go through a first half review with them and this was a topic of great discussion, as you would imagine. I would say that as we’ve commented frequently on these calls, as well as on individual meetings with investors, we are operating in a rational industry. We are seeing pricing activity occurring from all of our competitors, and we are working our way through this. No customer is happy to receive a price increase, let alone three of them in one year, and specifically in the middle of the paint season. So these are difficult discussions, they are well supported with facts in terms of why the company needs them. Our customers, to the best of their ability, are passing them on. We are blessed, particularly with the professional painting contractors, you know, we’ve also shared the fact that a typical painting job is approximately 80% labor, 20% material, so that does mitigate the impact somewhat for these folks, and our guys are out there doing a good job of making progress on this. The price increases that we are talking about in the July/August time period are being announced as we speak. They are not set to take effect until later in the month, so it’s a little early for us to comment on how well they are going to go in and we will certainly be prepared to comment on that on the next quarter call.

Eric Bosshard - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research Company. Please state your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Stephen O’Neill with Hilliard Lyons. Please state your question. Stephen O’Neill - Hilliard Lyons: Good morning. I think you answered this as part of Jeff’s question, but could you elaborate on the impact of the domestic economy on the global group? I think the tail end of his question, you answered that and I’m afraid I missed it.

Christopher M. Connor

Management

We didn’t give any specific number, Steve, on what that was. We just directionally commented that while the architectural businesses in Latin America and the other coatings business in Latin America were doing terrific for us, that some of the softness in the segment relative to previous quarters was related to the domestic automotive refinish and some of the domestic product finishes businesses, which are feeling the effects of the economy in North America, like so many other businesses. Stephen O’Neill - Hilliard Lyons: And then I think this was asked and I’m afraid I didn’t understand it -- did you say earlier that your guidance of $1.40 to $1.50 for March did include the impairment charge?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

Yes, we had figured that we would have some impairment in the quarter in that number. Stephen O’Neill - Hilliard Lyons: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Gregory Melich with Morgan Stanley. Please state your question.

Matt McGinley - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please state your question

This is Matt McGinley on behalf of Greg. Can you tell me how the mix has changed as your prices have increased? And have you seen any signs of a downtrade?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please state your question

Actually, we look again at that at the end of July and we looked at specifically some of the high-end exteriors and we’re not seeing a shift down at all, and we’re still -- and we’re seeing a slight positive shift for us.

Matt McGinley - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please state your question

Okay. And in regard to promotional and advertising spending in this environment, are you increasing it due to the environment or are you decreasing it in line with the drop in demand?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

Basically consistent with the process. Those dollars are managed on a percent to sales, so they may be slightly down this year but in terms of tone and types of discount and frequency, all those things are maintaining.

Matt McGinley - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please state your question

Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Don Carson with Merrill Lynch. Please state your question.

Donald Carson - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please state your question

Thank you. Two questions; first, Chris, still a bit confused on your outlook for the paint market. Do you think -- I know that you talk about the Southeast getting worse next year, but if you look at the broad national architectural market, do you think that we’ve bottomed here at sort of an 8% year-over-year decline? Do you see it getting worse in the second half before it gets better?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

We’re a little reluctant to give outlooks and forecasts. This has been a remarkable period to go through. We think that certainly there are pockets of the United States where the new residential market will continue to deteriorate even further from these historic low levels, and to the extent that that’s offset by the repaint markets, it’s just really early for us to make that call. To your point with kind of 8% gallon declines for the industry, it would be difficult to see that worsening much from that level, but we are a little reluctant to say that it’s going to get any stronger from that level, certainly for the next several quarters.

Donald Carson - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please state your question

Okay, and then a capital structure question -- you said you haven’t really changed your view yet post the successful resolution of the pigment litigation to lever up a bit more. Is that partly because you are trying to keep your powder dry for acquisitions? And what is the acquisition environment? Are some of the smaller companies still a little shell-shocked about the environment and not yet willing to consider selling?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

On your first point, you are absolutely correct. We want to keep the powder dry. We do think -- we think we -- and it goes to your second point; we think that eventually there might be some real nice assets here. We’re continuing to look at it but I don’t think the owners of these businesses has really changed. I think that we’ll see how they feel over the next six months and year, but we continue to push.

Donald Carson - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please state your question

Okay, and what’s the backlog like on international acquisitions? Is there anymore progress there?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

There’s some interesting properties out there right now. To Sean’s point, a little bit more activity there than domestically, given a more robust market and willingness to sell more of the -- on an up trend. And we don’t comment much more beyond that in terms of what we are seeing or what we are doing.

Donald Carson - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please state your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from John Emerich with Ironworks Capital. Please state your question.

John Emerich - Ironworks Capital

Analyst · Ironworks Capital. Please state your question

Thanks. Just a couple of unrelated questions, if I could ask them separately; first of all, I apologize. I missed the depreciation and amortization guidance for the year and if you gave CapEx ranges as well?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Ironworks Capital. Please state your question

We did. The CapEx range that we gave, John, was $140 million to $150 million, and for the year we said depreciation would be about $150 million and amortization would be about $21.4 million.

John Emerich - Ironworks Capital

Analyst · Ironworks Capital. Please state your question

Super. And second to last, what’s the right tax rate to use for this company, kind of on a go-forward basis?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Ironworks Capital. Please state your question

Well, we think that the -- right now we’ve been able to maintain it in the low 30s. We’ve commented that we think that’s where we’ll be. On an ongoing basis, our statutory rate is 38%. The low to mid 30s would probably be the right one to use.

John Emerich - Ironworks Capital

Analyst · Ironworks Capital. Please state your question

Okay, and then lastly, just some balance sheet metrics, specifically debt and cash, long- and short-term, if you have it.

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Ironworks Capital. Please state your question

Yes, our total debt at the end of the second quarter was $1.5 billion, and $300 million of that is long-term, $1.2 billion of that was short-term.

Christopher M. Connor

Management

And variable.

John Emerich - Ironworks Capital

Analyst · Ironworks Capital. Please state your question

And cash?

Sean P. Hennessy

Analyst · Ironworks Capital. Please state your question

In cash, we had $50 million, approximately.

John Emerich - Ironworks Capital

Analyst · Ironworks Capital. Please state your question

Super. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Chuck Cerankosky with FTN Midwest. Please state your question.

Analyst for Chuck Cerankosky - FTN Midwest

Analyst · FTN Midwest. Please state your question

Good morning. This is actually Alex sitting in for Chuck. I guess just one quick question -- what trademark was impaired in the quarter?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

These trademarks were in our, as Sean said, of the $23 million, 20 of it was in our stores group. We don’t give specifically which ones but we’ve indicated they were the trademarks from recent acquisitions made in this segment, as we’ve begun to consolidate these brands and businesses a little bit quicker.

Analyst for Chuck Cerankosky - FTN Midwest

Analyst · FTN Midwest. Please state your question

All right, that’s it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is come from John Roberts with Buckingham Research. Please state your question.

John Roberts - Buckingham Research

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please state your question

This morning, PPG indicated there were significant differences regionally in raw materials, that the international raw material costs were significantly lower for them than domestically. Are you maxed out in terms of what you can do regionally to shift your sourcing?

Christopher M. Connor

Management

I can’t really comment on Chuck’s comments on the PPG call in terms of what they were saying. These chemicals frequently are priced on a global basis. We are sourcing chemicals, both from the United States as well as markets around the world. I wouldn’t characterize us as being maxed out on any raw material strategy, and we’ll continue to aggressively manage these going forward.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing comments.

Robert J. Wells

Management

Thank you. I would like to close by expressing our appreciation for you taking time to join us this morning. As usual, I’ll be around this afternoon to answer any additional questions that arise and thank you for your continued interest in the Sherwin-Williams Company.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.