Earnings Labs

The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW)

Q3 2010 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 26, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. Thank you for joining The Sherwin-Williams Company’s review of the third quarter 2010 financial results and expectations for the full year. With us on today’s call are Chris Connor, Chairman and CEO; Sean Hennessy, Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO; Al Mistysyn, Vice President, Corporate Controller; and Bob Wells, Senior Vice President Corporate Communications and Public Affairs. This conference call is being webcast simultaneously in listen-only mode by Vcall via the Internet at www.sherwin.com. An archived replay of this webcast will be available at www.sherwin.com beginning approximately two hours after this conference call concludes and will be available until Monday, November 15, 2010 at 5:00 pm Eastern Time. This conference call will include certain forward-looking statements as defined under US federal securities laws with respect to sales, earnings and other matters. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. A full declaration regarding forward-looking statements is provided in the company’s earnings release transmitted earlier this morning. After the review of third quarter results, we will open the session to questions. I will now turn the call over to Bob Wells.

Bob Wells

Management

Thank you Claudia. In order to allow more time for questions we provided balance sheet items and other selected information on our website at sherwin.com under Investor Relation's third quarter press release. Summarizing overall company performance for the third quarter 2010 versus third quarter '09, consolidated net sales increased $175.4 million or 8.8% to $2.172 billion due primarily to acquisitions, selling price increases, higher sales volume and favorable foreign currency translation rate changes. Favorable currency translation increased consolidated net sales 0.6% in the quarter and acquisitions increased net sales by 3.4%. Consolidated gross profit dollars increased $42.6 million to $971.6 million. Gross margin decreased 180 basis points to 44.7% of sales from 46.5% in the third quarter last year. The decrease in gross margin was primarily due to higher year-over-year raw material prices which included certain spot market material purchases tied to supplier plant shut down. Selling, general and administrative expenses for the quarter increased 7.6% to $703.7 million due primarily to incremental SG&A from acquisitions, currency translation rate changes, higher service costs resulting from increased sale and higher freight and distribution costs to maintain customer service levels. As a percent of sales, SG&A decreased to 32.4% in the third quarter this year from 32.8% last year. Net interest expense increased $2.8 million compared to the third quarter last year. Consolidated profit before taxes in the quarter decreased $3.3 million or 1.3% to $255.4 million. Profit before tax decreased as a percent of sales to 11.8% from 13% last year. Our effective tax rate in the third quarter this year was 31.4% compared to 32.3% in the third quarter of 2009. For the full year 2010, we expect our effective tax rate to increase slightly to 32% compared to last year's rate of approximately 30%. Consolidated net income was essentially…

Chris Connor

Chairman

Thank you, Bob. And good morning, everybody thanks for joining us today. You know from the demand perspective the third quarter actually started to feel a little bit more normal to us. We posted solid revenue and volume growth in the quarter, including a 5% in comp store sales gain, even though many segments of our end markets continue to struggle. We did not feel normal to the fact that we failed to general earnings leverage on this revenue growth. Our sales in the third quarter came in about as we had expected, when you back out revenue from the Becker Acroma acquisition which was completed during the quarter, but not included in our guidance. Our sales increased 7.3%, which was in the debt center of our range of mid to high single digits. A little more than half of this sales improvement was from increased volume, the balance coming from a combination of price in favorable mix for the company. Earnings per share for the quarter also adjusted for the Becker Acroma acquisition finished in the middle of our guidance range of a $1.55 to $1.70. When you are going into the quarter the earnings improvement would be challenging even with the solid sales increase and we guided accordingly. Three key factors contributed to our cautious outlook, continued raw material cost pressure, higher SG&A expense and dilution from acquisitions. So let me kind of brief on each of these three issues a little further. First, the persistently higher raw material cost we experienced during the first-half, did not update in the third quarter and some commodities such as titanium back side are still rising. We are also continuing to experience higher operating cost results from raw material supply shortages. Many of the extraordinary actions we’ve taken during the year…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Our first question is coming from the line of Bob Court with Goldman Sachs. Please state your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Hi, this is (inaudible) on for Bob. Just help me to dig into the raw material cost pressure a little bit more, you mentioned titanium back side, I was hoping you could maybe quantify what kind of year-over-year price increases you are seeing and then maybe you could also talk about what's going on with some of the other raw materials or there is some of the pressure from the first half of the year, is it [baiting] or if you are seeing continued pressure there? Thank you.

Bob Wells

Management

For the first half of the year most of the inflation we saw on the material basket was acrylic (inaudible) and acrylic latex. And although those the supply situation is getting better in the acrylic chain, we're not seeing much relief on the price side yet in acrylics. At the same time as Chris mentioned, titanium dioxide is to heat up. We're seeing pressure on TiO2. The pressure for this year is embedded in our outlook for the full year for the raw material basket to be up in the high single digit. Year-to-date its probably mid-to-high with the highest level of inflation being in the fourth quarter. For next year we're seeing analyst outlooks that across the pretty broad range with the high probably being in the 40 to 50% inflation range, most analysts put titanium inflation for 2011 in the range of 20 to 30% and we think that feels about right based on the tightness in the supply right now

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Thanks that’s helpful. Just one more if I might. On the cadence of losses from acquisitions you mentioned there is about 2.8 million this quarter. I was wondering if you might give some indication of how that will track over the next quarter or two and when you might expect the dilution to end?

Bob Wells

Management

Chris mentioned in his comments that for the full year we expected to be out $0.07, it was $0.02 in the third quarter. That brought us year-to-date up to $0.05, so its going to be 0.02 in the fourth quarter. We believe that the first quarter will be dilutive, but after that and starting in the second quarter we'll start to see accretion.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Great and that 2.8 million expense, is that include re-branding or conversions of any of the acquired companies or is that strictly just kind of amortization expense and lower margin or profitability for those businesses?

Chris Connor

Chairman

Yes those are operating hits and cost of acquisitions to get them in there. There won’t be significant expense towards re-branding at this point in time.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Kevin McCarthy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Just a follow-up on raw materials, if I think about the pace of inflation here on a relative basis compared to the selling price increases that you've announced. Would 3Q be the quarter of maximum margin compression if we think about the spread there or do you anticipate more severity over the next quarter or two?

Chris Connor

Chairman

I think if you take a look at our quarter, last year in the fourth quarter we were over 47%. When we take a look at this year, we think that the degradation from last year as a percent, that will be the greatest difference in this year.

Kevin McCarthy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Okay, that’s helpful and then to follow-up on pricing, what is the outlook in the consumer segment relative to the increases that you've already announced in paint stores?

Chris Connor

Chairman

Yes, I think we have been pretty consistent about sharing what the straight our pricing activities, we announced that in the middle of the third quarter specifically in August that we took pricing to the market in all of our architectural businesses including consumer group you're specifically asking about Kevin. And as we commented, the implementation on these price increases has gone pretty well, pretty inline with our historic performance and trucking along appropriately. When we took that pricing in August we were able to have very good visibility of the impact that we've been hitting during the first half of the year obviously but also the titanium pressures was starting to build at that point in time, so that was the pricing we took to offset Bob's comments that we're seeing the basket of [rods] for the industry move up into the mid to high single digits for this year.

Bob Wells

Management

And Kevin I should also mentioned we could fairly give this guidance that we believe that our gross margin for the full year will be slightly below 45%. So when you look at the 44 right through the first three quarters, we're going to be slightly below 45, so you can see what we think the gross profit's going to come in at in the fourth quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst · JPMorgan

Couple of questions, in TiO2 some, I guess, some competitors or some paint companies can access Ti02 from China where there seems to be a lot of capacity growth or as everywhere else there is not much growth, because you're largely domestic seller of paints, is that something that you can't really access or can you? How you see that?

Chris Connor

Chairman

We absolutely have the ability to access titanium, Jeff from a variety of different more locations around the world. This is a global commodity with operations now in multiple continents and countries around the world, we're buying titanium from a variety of these different sources including Chinese suppliers as you mentioned, so not a problem.

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst · JPMorgan

And so you say a multi-year period, do you see the supply demand balance in titanium dioxide loosing up or continuing to stay pretty tight?

Chris Connor

Chairman

Well, we're the wrong guy to be asking that question. The titanium producers of the folks that need to answer that for us. We've been fairly consistent in saying that while there certainly is pricing pressure on titanium that is sticking in this market, the availability of titanium is not an issue for the short-term or the near-term outlook in terms of gallons that we're going to need to manufacture. Now we would remind all of the listeners on the call that speaking specifically in United States and to equal amount that the growth has been through some what of a global recession here we’ve seen significant fall off in the manufacturing of architectural paint coatings which is a primary user of these titanium backside raw materials from 800 million ton gallons under the 500 million gallon range and we're just hoping that much capacity came out of the industry. So long one did answer saying that we're comfortable that there is capacity out there. We're not going to have an issue dealing with that side of it. It will be all in the pricing.

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst · JPMorgan

And just a couple more short thing. Normally your inventories sequentially go down in the third quarter, but this time they went up by about $65 million, why is that?

Chris Connor

Chairman

I think part of that is really the raw material piece of the inventory Jeff. You can start to see those. As Bob mentioned, the basket, how large a basket is when you compare to what our growth in the inventory is. You can start to see that raw material cost being converted into finished goods.

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst · JPMorgan

And then lastly, organically did your gallonage grow domestically in the quarter or globally in the quarter?

Bob Wells

Management

It did Jeff; it grew low single-digits.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from PJ Juvekar with Citi. Please state your question.

PJ Juvekar - Citi

Analyst · Citi. Please state your question

The recent slowdown that we're seeing in foreclosure activity, that is likely to have some negative impact on existing home sales. So do you think that can be a risk to fourth quarter or early part of 2011 volumes?

Bob Wells

Management

We think that the typical drivers of our architectural paint demand in the US have been crippled for quite some time and certainly new construction market declines rapidly years ago. Re-sale or turn over has traditionally been a driver of coatings volume, less so in this environment. So as the challenges in the foreclosure market continue to work themselves out, we think that most of the volume demand in the states will be driven by just cycle painting amongst home owners that are staying in their home.

PJ Juvekar - Citi

Analyst · Citi. Please state your question

But earlier in the year you had mentioned that foreclosure was a growth driver and you had a foreclosure team.

Bob Wells

Management

Yes, I think that was a miscommunication PJ. What we’ve said is that foreclosure activity really doesn’t drive volume in our markets. The banks selling properties to investors is not nearly as good for us as an owner occupant selling to a new owner occupant.

PJ Juvekar - Citi

Analyst · Citi. Please state your question

Okay now I will follow up on that later on. And just another question quickly I know there is a lot of excitement about this paintless primer introduced by two of your competitors and you think that could have some negative impact on your consumer group.

Bob Wells

Management

No I don’t think so. Probably architectural paints and quite a few products in our line also have this capability to act as a paint and primer in one. If you're going over previously un-painted services, these competitive products articulate that two coats are needed. So I think it's an interesting market approach. Good quality of paints should be able to handle these types of projects in one or two coats and we have full basket of these products as well in our line.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Dennis McGill with Zelman & Associates. Dennis McGill - Zelman & Associates: Just first one, just to clarify the fourth quarter revenue guidance. Sean how much should we model for the benefit from acquisitions for the quarter?

Sean Hennessy

Analyst · Zelman & Associates

We think that when you think about the mid-teens and probably just about half of that will be for acquisitions Dennis McGill - Zelman & Associates: Okay, so when you think about it from an organic standpoint, you could actually see an acceleration relative to the third quarter even though comps are a little bit more challenging year-over-year?

Sean Hennessy

Analyst · Zelman & Associates

Yes, so if you take a look at the third quarter, our total sales rough 88. Net of acquisition there was 5-4. Yeah we can see an acceleration from that 5-4. Dennis McGill - Zelman & Associates: And that's just a function of price and to Chris' comments, a little bit better on the margin?

Chris Connor

Chairman

And improving volume as well.

Sean Hennessy

Analyst · Zelman & Associates

Yes, all those things. Dennis McGill - Zelman & Associates: Great, second question, I know there's been a lot of comments out there most of which I think are probably inaccurate around what's happened with some of the share loss at Wal-Mart. Can you just clarify what that announcement means for your business and also throw the timing of when that will actually start to flow through on the revenue side?

Bob Wells

Management

Yes, the decision that Wal-Mart need was to displace their two branded product offerings which were our Dutch Boy and another product supplied by Masco with the Glidden brand and then move some of their volume of there house brand which is colored place to AkzoNobel and a way from of their current suppliers. In total, we have reported that in terms of revenue loss for us on a full year basis, it will be less than $100 million. Dennis McGill - Zelman & Associates: And as far as timing on that, are you starting to see that now with the order shipments or is that later?

Bob Wells

Management

With our fourth quarter guidance that has been (inaudible) 17th 0:10 and about half of that being organic if there isn't impact in the fourth quarter it's not significant. I this from what we're operating under Dennis, is the expectation that the branding part of this business will move first and that as the paint season unfolds next year you should probably see Wal-Mart's new branding position on shelf and the private label work will flowing behind that, that won't be as evident to the marketplace but all these things should be well underway by the first quarter of next year. Dennis McGill - Zelman & Associates: Okay, very good and then just one last question. Taken the comments you made about the dilution of global segment. Is it right to assume that the margins there excluding acquisitions were up 50 or 100 basis points year-over-year?

Chris Connor

Chairman

Yes, when you take a look at without acquisitions in the third quarter. No, actually misspoke there, without the actuations they were still, they were not up that much but for the full year they are going to be almost twice of what they were last year.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from John Roberts with Buckingham Research.

John Roberts - Buckingham Research

Analyst · Buckingham Research

Couple of clarifications, when it sounds like you expect to fully restored margins after freight raw material stabilize?

Chris Connor

Chairman

Yes, I think when we take a look at the long-term, the way we run the company, when the runs go up, we usually see some depression in our gross margin and it's happening again. But over a course of time, 12 to 18 months we eventually come back and recover our gross margin. So, last year was their all-time peak at 46%. Now we're going to be slightly below 45 this year. We think that eventually we're going to be backing that 46 range.

John Roberts - Buckingham Research

Analyst · Buckingham Research

Secondly could you comment on the commercial re-paint market? There's a lot more square footage out there obviously which you've talked about in the past because of all the construction activity over the past several years. It seems like we're having a lag here in getting the re-paint activity to pick up in commercial.

Bob Wells

Management

Yes that’s accurate John, most of the lift that we're seeing this year, we commented comes from the residential re-paint market and the commercial re-paint market has actually been one of those areas that we're seeing stress in. Two numbers that you can look at to help support that would be the vacancy rate at both retail and office. Big users of residential re-paint products and contractors time and both of these numbers are running at pretty high rates historically. So much like we needed is get to those kind of glut of housing through the residential side has start to see some lift there. We need to see occupancy rates for over build retail space rebound as well as in office. To that end, very little if any new commercial construction activity happening in United States this year and those spaces we think this is our first time in about four years that there hasn’t been a major retail complex under construction somewhere in the United States so we're going to have to wait for a while before our backlog goes through and our guidance for this year with the commercial re-paint would be a soft segment for the company and it's certainly proven to be the case.

John Roberts - Buckingham Research

Analyst · Buckingham Research

Is the industrial and government re-paint activity picking up but not have any effect here on the overall?

Bob Wells

Management

Yes, absolutely that’s certainly better than the commercial re-paint and actually quite strong, it was a real help in the quarter. Not only are we seeing some of the impact at the stimulus money and infrastructure projects but as typical in a cycle like this, you can only hold off on maintaining these kinds of assets for so long and then you need to get back on them. So our protective and re-encodings business both domestically as well as under role is actually performing quite nicely right now.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Douglas Chudy with Keybanc Capital

Douglas Chudy - Keybanc Capital

Analyst · Keybanc Capital

Good morning. You know there is some temporary elevation in SG&A, but taking a longer term view, do you sense that is your volumes improved, you can ratchet that SG&A as a percentage of sales back down to say 32, 33% level on 2006, 2007.

Chris Connor

Chairman

Yes, I think that as a percent of sales for sure that over the course of time you're going to see us ratchet that SG&A down as a percent of sales. I think though that when you saw the SG&A improvement in the first six months of the year versus the last six months of the year. I think you are going to starting to see that our SG&A from the closed stores and all the activities we have done, we've now really getting close to a more normalized rate as we get more volume then I think you are going to start seeing that SG&A as a percent sales continue to go down.

Douglas Chudy - Keybanc Capital

Analyst · Keybanc Capital

Okay, that’s helpful and then secondly just a follow-up on the Wal-Mart business. Do you have any concerns that some of your other Wal-Mart business could be at risk here?

Bob Wells

Management

Business is always at risks, at all these third party retailers that we do business with. Having said that, the programs are performing well. These are strong brands that are at Wal-Mart, Minwax, Thompson's, Krylon and our expectations are going forward that that won't be an issue for us but time will tell.

Douglas Chudy - Keybanc Capital

Analyst · Keybanc Capital

Okay, and then just finally, can you comment on the sequential demand trends? I mean it sounded that you are a little bit more optimistic. I mean have you seen any sort of a pick up here in the early parts of the fourth quarter versus what you were seeing during the third quarter?

Bob Wells

Management

No again I think the residential re-paint components of the business continued to show some strength. As Sean clarified the kind of fourth quarter sales guidance with acquisitions out we're looking in kind of that mid to upper single digit range here. So all that's an indication that we're seeing a little better. Performance for the company, I think that clearly there is market share gains being generated here, but also we're seeing a little better health in the [iron] markets.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research

Analyst · Longbow Research

Couple of questions, but most have been answered, but you've had a pretty decent volume growth in the global market. I mean, it's global and industrial. So was the growth more on the architectural side in Latin America or was the growth more on the aftermarket, the automotive and maintenance and marine and global colorings?

Bob Wells

Management

Actually the architectural volume for the quarter was a little bit higher than the automotive or the industrial, but the automotive, industrial were fairly strong for us.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research

Analyst · Longbow Research

Okay. So you actually did have mid to high single digit growth, it sounds like an architectural paint.

Bob Wells

Management

Yes.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research

Analyst · Longbow Research

Latin America, and did that come largely as a function of heading new stores or did you also disclose same store sales for the global business like you do for domestic?

Bob Wells

Management

No.

Chris Connor

Chairman

We don't do comp store sales for our global business probably something we should think about doing going forward, Dmitry fair question. I would just say that just a better architectural health and the key architectural segments, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile really drive Latin America for us. So to our stores, our dealer network, our home centers all doing nicely right now.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research

Analyst · Longbow Research

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then I'll not do so much concentrate on the loss of the business of Wal-Mart, but kind of what that loss represents beyond the P&L impact and then how do you view your brands outside of Shawn-Williams, obviously you have a very good and very strong brands in Minwax and Thompson Seal that’s just about every distribution channel you can think of. Krylon is a good brand, but is there much behind that or will you going to have to address at some point your stable of brands and see how viable some of these are longer term particularly Dutch Boy but also beyond Dutch Boy?

Chris Connor

Chairman

Well we should be thinking about that all the time Dmitry and working to strengthen the brands. So we are having that in the company. We would point out that the third largest home center chain in United States Menorah is a terrific partner for our Dutch Boy brand and there are dozens of other regional home center discount hardware chains across United States that are enjoying and helping us market that brand. So, we are committed to the staple of brands we have. There is no movement of foot because of its one decision by Wal-Mart to change any kind of channel strategy or support for the brands we have inside the company.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of (inaudible) with Stevens.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Couple of questions back just on the raw materials just briefly. Can you remind us how much that you are paying costs are associated with the TiO2?

Bob Wells

Management

Yeah it’s in the low 20%. TiO2 represents the 21%, 22% of the cost of our total raw material baskets.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Okay. So if I understood right, you are kind of thinking or at least you think it’s a most realistic expectation is that those costs might be up 20% to 30% next year.

Bob Wells

Management

That’s what it looks like now

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Okay and so that would imply I think like 4% to 6% price increase needed to help offset that particular increase.

Chris Connor

Chairman

But I don’t see the math you get to the raw material cost input, but the pricing that we would need would be about half of that as raws as the path kind of good that counts about half of the average selling price of given of architectural paints.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

Okay that’s really helpful thank you. And then also your talks kind of on accrued prices I know you said that the ply looks like its getting better prices continue to be high do you think that that’s kind of continue or do you think at some point we’ll start to see those move down again?

Chris Connor

Chairman

I think that’s obviously a good question and one that we are all paying attention to. Our practice trade has been at that first quarter call to give you guidance on what we are seeing for industry for the year. And its just a little early for us to start going down the whole basket of raw materials here. There is so much noise around Titanium and there is a lot of press on that now that’s why Bob wanted to commented on that kind of ranges that we are seeing out there. Its just too early to make this call and the others supply is easing. And as Bob mentioned we are off for the forced measure and some of struggles we had earlier in the year. We would like that settle in little bit, get to our year end negotiations with these folks. I won’t give as much visibility and guidance we possibly can in the first quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our Next question is coming from Eric Bosshard with Cleveland Research. Eric Bosshard – Cleveland Research: A couple of things first of all the titanium dioxide the 20% to 30% or maybe I am missing something. But that seems to be a tremendous amount of inflation in a very important raw material and I guess my question is, is that actually where you think it ends up in 2011? And secondly, when you put through your August price increase, you had commented that that reflected what you'd seen inputs. I'm assuming that titanium dioxide has worsened materially since that pricing decision was made. Can you just give a little bit of color on those two items?

Chris Connor

Chairman

Bob’s comments were relative to some of the chemical analyst reports that we are reading here and that’s so much hard negotiation at the table and what the stuff is going to cause the industry for calendar year 2011. So that’s just an early look at kind of the pressure. You are correct in your assessment, this is remarkable inflation in price for product line that has typically gone through its ups and downs. I am just going to have to wait let a whole time, go by here until that kind of settles in and we see what the number comes in at. We are not giving guidance on this call for 2011 cost increase for the industry and we absolutely will hold true to our commitment to get that to you in the first quarter.

Eric Bosshard - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research

In terms of the second half of my question that was about pricing in August. I don't know if you can give any color that if the input cost environment has changed since that pricing decision was made?

Chris Connor

Chairman

Yes, I would say that what you categorized earlier about the CO2 situation and worsening them before we went out with debt price increase and determine the percentage we needed. I would say that the TiO2 pricing has become more dire than what we had there at that time.

Eric Bosshard - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research

And then secondly on the progress with that August increase, Chris, you said that it's kind of gone through at a normal basis up or similar to what's happened historically. Can you give any further color about the markets instead for the price increases?

Sean Hennessy

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Yeah I think that you know when you take a look at it, it’s always difficult. But if you take a look at on the store side and the consumer side is just as difficult that’s it is always but I would tell you when we look at the effectiveness of that August 16 plus, have it’s a little bit of a mix again positive mix that we have had in the past, now its only been six weeks there but we take a look at it, we think its that price increase probably has gone in just as well and any that we put in, in the last 10 years.

Eric Bosshard - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Great, thanks for that Sean. And then lastly on the acquisition delusion and the transition to accretion which sounds like begins in 2Q of next year, can you give us any sense of what the magnitude of that swing is? And then also explain what happens within the business to make it go from diluted earnings to accreting?

Sean Hennessy

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Probably if I could just refer you, later this week we are going to be putting out our queue and our financials, and our footnote and if look at good footnote 14 which basically does a pro forma and what it shows, I freely share with you. 2009 if we would have owned Becker as well as Sayerlack from the beginning of '09 our pro forma third quarter would have been in $1.52 and for the first nine months would have been 3.19 and as you know, last year we earned $1.51, so they would have been accretive by $0.01 and $0.02 for the first nine months. And I think we have talked about that it was lower than dollar-for-dollar for sales for that reason. But when we think about next year number one, the first thing its going to cause accretion is not going to get to closing cost and number two we think that some of the steps that we are going to take are managing this businesses will be higher than what they were earning in prior year. So I think you can see they you are in the depending in the third quarter and $0.02 for the first nine months. We expect to have more than that in a run rate maybe not because of just the beginning of the change that we are making but by 2012 we’ll start to see more, but I think we’ll have more than what they have earned in 2009.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Matt McGinley with ISI Group.

Matt McGinley - ISI Group

Analyst · ISI Group

On the increase in inventory that you had on the raw materials versus the acquisitions can you give me the rough split between what those (Technical Difficulty) quarter and then on the acquisition side of that as you fully integrate these acquisitions out on the 2011, how will that number change do you think that you can get that number to go down as this become broaden the share (inaudible).

Sean Hennessy

Analyst · ISI Group

Yeah I think when you take a look at the working capital as a percent of sales of these two acquisitions that we can buy them we are going to be around 30% of sales and I think which is almost three times the time we run the company, but when we segregate our company we are little higher outside of the United States because of scaling so forth, but when we look at this we expect over the next few years we are going to be able to make dramatic improvements in there. The inventory of $859 million of the inventory was $74 million from acquisition so when you take a look at that the reminder was up about 7.2% - 8%, so when you take a look and gain that’s again the high end of the range that Bob talked about with the raw material side. You make a great point that 30% working capital percent of sales we are going to be again working on that next year.

Matt McGinley - ISI Group

Analyst · ISI Group

Okay. that’s helpful thanks and then second question is, this is the first time, a couple of years we saw paint stores top line growth that was better then the consumer group. Do you think you are starting to see a channel shift back to other (inaudible) DIY or is this just you know the pro segment bouncing off the bottom?

Bob Wells

Management

Don’t forget that in that paint stores group number is also DIY business as well. E have had a good DIY quarter there, but the strength primarily coming from that residential re-paint category and join the painting contract is playing the real role over there.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research

Chuck Cerankosky - Northcoast Research

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Chris, when you are looking at the volume strengths and weaknesses gained from you touch then a number of markets are there any others as you’d like to call out or point to?

Chris Connor

Chairman

We’ve talked about the residential repaid both from a professional DIY to our stores, I think one of the earlier callers also got us talking a little bit about the protective in marine segments both domestically and globally. Those have certainly been highlights in the quarters Chuck.

Chuck Cerankosky - Northcoast Research

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Alright, as you are looking out to next year with the prospects of some higher [royals] what do you think the contracted markets is going to be like regarding its receptivity for future price increases as there has been a lot of them in the last couple or three years.

Chris Connor

Chairman

Yeah we are blessed with a customer base with the professional that has the ability to pass pricing on to their customers as we have commented frequently on this call, the cost of material is anywhere between 10% to 20% of the cost of the paint jobs, so they are about able to mitigate it. The likelihood if some of the chemical analysts are correct the titanium is up into 20% or 30% range, we would expect to see the industry go to another round of pricing in calendar 2011 and we'll just have to be prepare to respond to that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Carly Mattson with Goldman Sachs.

Carly Mattson - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

I was wondering, give us an update on white paint litigation and putting anything that's happened in California?

Sean Hennessy

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

Yeah. There are actually handful of season counties that brought simply in California in recently the State Supreme Court ruled on one of our motioned and determined that it is permissible for these season counties to retain contingency be council to aid in these suits, but the governmental agencies must retain control over the suits, so that is essentially now sending the matter back to the trial court for further proceedings. We anticipate that, we still need to complete discovery in those suits and there is other motion track that issues to resolve there. And then in addition to that there are a couple of our personal injury suits that we face in Mississippi one being a single point of suit which was tried to a Jury last year and The Jury returned a verdict for the Plaintiff, the company has filed a Notice Of Appeal with the Mississippi Supreme Court and we've now begun briefing, we filed our opening brief this past summer and the Plaintiff filed their brief shortly after that, no hearing date have been set yet a decision is not expected until at least mid 2011 for any outcome of that appeal.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from James Ainley with Citigroup.

James Ainley - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup

Just a question on the proposed lease accounting changes and what impact that would have on Shawn-Williams. We don’t really hear with that much in the chemical sector but you are sort of a hybrid.

Chris Connor

Chairman

Couple of things. Of our 3350 approximate stores we own right around 260 of them and so that means that we have many leases and we are trying to get a five year term and four or five year options with a fine (inaudible). What’s going to happen, when a lot of times people will ask us about our leverage, we always talk about our debt to EBITDA being right around one but really 1.7 if you think about net present value of those leases. So, we’ve always continued to freely point that out. What you are going to see is, our leverage is going to grow to about 1.7, because what we have to do is put that asset on our books and we are going to have to put the debt on the books. We are not going to have any pounds with our covenants. We looked on our covenants and I know other companies are taking a look at this and say that this trigger covenant issue form with the banks, we don’t have that. The real question will be how much we are going to have to on an ongoing basis change the fair market value of those leases and that will be pretty interesting because we got with 20 years control with the change of interest rate, we might have that going in and out and unfortunately I figured really it doesn’t change the aspect of our company or so forth. We got to see more volatility on our balance sheet, because of this sized asset being changing on an ongoing basis for fair amount of value, but what we are again trying to do is to keep this out of our operating division so that they are so focused on selling paint which is how we really make paint money.

James Ainley - Citigroup

Analyst · Citigroup

So it just a bit more transparent in terms of leases beyond the balance sheet, but once they are there assuming that this goes forward then there maybe some noise, but its just more about accounting. Different noise rather than actual results being impacted.

Chris Connor

Chairman

You find them about six, seven years ago with the lease changes there was many people and you had a sum up come over the change and we put something on our balance sheet, but it was less than $10 million but this one is going to be tremendously larger. It’ll be in the neighborhood of $700 million.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Our next question is from Paul Mann with Morgan Stanley.

Paul Mann - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

You know the analyst is expecting sort of 20% to 30% inflation in TiO2 in 2011. On the similar year-over-year inflation what sort of inflation is better than the current level of TiO2. Also what are you expecting from the rest of the raw material baskets. I guess the rest of baskets is going to ease a little during 2011.

Bob Wells

Management

We really aren’t prepared for a full raw material outlook for 2011 on this case. The comment about the 20% to 30% inflation was simply picking up kind of consensus view of analyst that we read and we have not done the analysis of current levels versus a 20% to 30% inflation rate year-over-year. So, I don’t think we are prepared to answer that question.

Paul Mann - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Okay then my second question is just how do you favor by your own inventory of raw materials particular in acrylics during Q4 during kind of the seasonal down turn. Is it like you can sort of re-order to re-stocking in your acrylic inventory.

Chris Connor

Chairman

I think this acrylic inventory position in the industry is phenomenally better today than it was two or three quarters ago, most of the operating issues from our suppliers have been resolved to back up running and full capacity. The seasonal slack in demand and its helped that process, and at this point in time there are no issues there at all.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I’ll now turn the floor back over to management for any closing comments.