Earnings Labs

Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG)

Q2 2007 Earnings Call· Tue, Sep 18, 2007

$85.19

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Transcript

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

Good afternoon. I am pleased to welcome all of you in the room and those joining by webcast and conference call. I am Terry Burman Group Chief Executive and with me is Walker Boyd, Group Finance Director. Rob Anderson, Chief Executive of the U. K. Business is in the front row. I will present an overview of the business. Walker will summarize our financial results and then we will all take your questions. During this presentation we will be discussing Signet's business outlook and making certain forward-looking statements. Any statements that are not historical facts are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. We therefore urge to read the risk and other factors and cautionary language in the annual report on Form 20-F that was filed with the SEC on the 4th May, 2007. We also draw your attention to the slide and our press release which is posted on our website for more information on the risks and uncertainties. In the first half, Group total sales were up 9.2% and like-for-like sales by 3.2%. Profit before tax, grew 3.2% to $109 million. Earnings per share increased by 5.1% to $4.1. The Board has declared an interim dividend of $0.96. In sterling terms this represents an increase of 7.5% using the exchange rate as of Monday. Turning now to the U. S. business. The retail environment was more challenging in the first half than in most recent years, and this has been reflected in sales performance of most U. S. retailers. Our reported like-for-likes were up 2.7%. On an underlying basis they increased by an estimated 2% after adjusting for the adverse impact of weather disruption over Valentine's Day and the benefit from the timing of a promotional event at the beginning of…

Walker Boyd - Group Finance Director

Management

Good afternoon. Group operating profit for the six months of $116.9 million represents an increase of 5.3% at constant exchange rates and reflects a stable U. S. performance and improvement in the U. K. and some increase in central costs. Financial costs have increased principally as a result of the $100 million 2006-2007 buyback program. Correspondingly, pre-tax profit again on a constant rate basis increased by 3.8% or 3.2% on a reported basis. Sales growth in the U. S. was 7.6% with new space contributing 4.9%. The underlying like-for-like sales growth was estimated to have been 2% with the benefit of a timing promotional event at the beginning of the half, more than offsetting the adverse impact of weather disruption over Valentine's Day. The U. K. like-for-like was 4.6% with space changes adverse by 0.4%. Exchange movements as a result of an average rate of $1.99 against $1.81 a year ago had a favorable impact on reported sales. At the Group level, like-for-like growth was 2.8% on an underlying basis and total sales at constant exchange rates were up 6.7%. Looking at the geographical split, U.S. operating profits were little changed at $126.3 million although operating margin of 10.4% was down from 11.1%. In the U. K. where profits are much more skewed to the fourth quarter, the normal seasonal deficit was virtually eliminated with an improvement from an operating loss last year of $6.8 million at constant rates to only $600,000 in the current period. Group costs show an increase of $1.5 million at constant rates, primarily attributable to exchange losses largely arising on dividend payment and an increase in professional costs. In the U. S. gross margins fell as anticipated by around 30 basis points. Reflecting tight cost control during the period, expenses remain steady as a percent…

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

Thanks Walker. We will be pleased to take your questions now. We'll start with those people present in the room before going to those joining us by conference call and then return to the auditorium for any final questions. Please state your name and organization and if you are in the room please wait for a microphone so that those joining by telephone can hear. Question And Answer

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Could you talk about your credit experience in a bit more detail? Have you changed your credit criteria tool or seen any different behavior in the credit book? And what's the thinking behind taking on... is there a specific reason why you have taken on the 40 more collection agents?

Walker Boyd - Group Finance Director

Management

I think if we look at the statistics on the credit portfolio and I think you have to believe me, when credit statistics are after sales and margins, the most poured over statistics, we have in the business, I think if you look at the individual ratios apart from the bad debt loss, you look at exit rates, you look at the participation, you look at the monthly collection rate. All of these, I would say are symptomatic. The movements in that are symptomatic of a tighter consumer. Having said that and none of these movements show any sense of direction that there is a fundamental change in the performance of the portfolio. So, in that sense, yes I think the performance reflects economic situation. But no fundamental change. And the comment that Terry made in terms of the loss rates have been comfortable in the range over the last 10 years, I would apply equally to these other key statistics, I have mentioned. I think the investment in more collectors I think that is one area where we would say that keeping the receivables in-house is a competitive strength particularly into this environment allows us to manage the credit portfolio at our strategy. We have maintained credit standards overall in terms of the overall level of acceptance, deterioration in consumer balance sheet says exit rates go down a little. The other symptom then is people trend to take slightly longer to pay, and that's where we think it appropriate then to invest in an additional collection response. And I think that is to add advantage as opposed to if we had credit on a third party basis with a bank. I think we take a different view in terms of their balance sheet ratios and come down on the exit rate much more dramatic, and clearly that will have a much of a greater impact on our business model than the additional cost of 40 additional collectors. So, we will respond to the performance of the portfolio, but we continue to strongly believe that keeping the receivables in-house is a very strong competitive advantage particularly in these uncertain credit times.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thanks a lot. And so while I got the mic and Terry, you mentioned that you're moving to national network TV advertising for Jared. Could you talk for a bit implications that what the advantages would be relative to what you have been doing, and whether there is an additional cost?

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

The cost... for Jared, the cost will stay in proportion to its sales, and Jared's growth makes it possible for us to increase the advertising budget that we spend on media. The significant... there are several significant benefits to national network advertising versus the regional advertising that... the local advertising that we were doing. First of all the impressions are of a higher quality. It just opens up opportunities to buy higher quality impressions rather than those impressions that are saved for the local markets. Secondly, it gives us an opportunity to do add-ons. With any TV buy there are promotional opportunities. So for instance in Kay we are sponsoring the American music awards and we have done so far several years. We have the Kay lounge in the back where they interview the award winners. And this gives us an opportunity while we pay for our adds on the program but it gives us an opportunity for extra promotional mentions. For instance, when they go to a commercial they say American music awards brought to you by Kay Jewelers. We've never had this kind of opportunity and there is many of these that we do for Kay throughout the year. We never had these opportunities before in Jared. We'll now start to achieve them. So you get more for your money in terms of quality impressions. You also get more for your money in terms of these promotional opportunities which can tie into your buy, by allocating additional money to certain programs that you hence [ph] select. Finally and the biggest benefit of going to national advertising is we have been able to as we've increased our sales and allocated the same percentage of sales to advertising cost in Kay, we have been able to raise our... the number of impressions that we have every year. In Jared, however, because all the advertise has been local all the additional new money has gone into funding the local advertising and adding new local areas to our advertising buy. Now with national TV we are going to be able to start increasing impressions as our sales and budget increase. So we'll be able to leverage our spend into increased impressions that come in from the increased budget from each new store and that will benefit the entire chain. We previously weren't able to do this, because we didn't have enough mass to be able to get over the hurdle to buy national advertising. But now that we have reached that hurdle, now we can invest in national and start increasing our impressions like we have in Kay.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thanks a lot.

John Baillie - SG Securities

Management

Hello, John Baillie from SG. Could you elaborate a little bit on the vendor payments and the change in terms, impact that's having on the margins and the scale of them?

Walker Boyd - Group Finance Director

Management

I wouldn't overestimate the scale, but then obviously if you look our balance sheet you can see that our creditors have gone down more, you would expect them to go down more of this time of the year relative to year end, they have gone down more than that. But really there is a short term timing difference where we are paying vendor slightly earlier, and I think in effect using our balance sheet rather than their's which ours is clearly stronger. So, clearly it does have a benefit to the overall operating margin which is then slightly offset by higher interest charges. As I said, I would not overestimate the impact of it, if you look at, as you see it's effectively at two week timing difference in terms of the cycle of our year end vendor... our month end vendor payments.

John Baillie - SG Securities

Management

And could I just ask also on outlet centers, whether you... I mean if they are working and whether you'll be... can accelerate the pace of expansion going forward?

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

Sure, just to tie up on Marcus' question I think he asked about the vendor payments whether they're impacting gross margin. No they have no impact on gross margin.

Walker Boyd - Group Finance Director

Management

I will take up and discuss, so they impact SG&A rather than gross margin.

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

We are very pleased with the first year test of the outlet centers. We opened five... we opened four as you know give us a total of five and we're opening... we anticipate opening at between 5 and 10 next year. So, good result early days but a good result.

Andrew Hughes - UBS Warburg

Management

Yes good afternoon. It's Andy Hughes from UBS. I have got couple of questions. Firstly it was on the level of cost growth, it seems to be in a lot lower in Q2 than Q1 if I am right on the numbers and that you have made this some sort of a step change into the cost savings initiatives, started the equations. Do you think that's... you have found as much as you think you need to do for the year? Or should we expect it to be even tighter on cost growth in the second half? And the same thing was on the H. Samuel store closures that you said... can you give us any indication firstly of where you think the ideal chain size would be for H. S and also what the P&L impact would be? I mean these stores are still profitable at store level and you're doing it long term DCF [ph] type regions?

Walker Boyd - Group Finance Director

Management

YesI think on your first question particularly if you're asking about the U. S. I think looking at the Q2 and Q1 cost increases is difficult because you... if you recall at the end of Q1 we did say that there was a flip of advertising spend in the U. S. that had gone... for Mother's Day, gone more into Q1, which then reversed in Q2. So I think if you look quarter-on-quarter, the expense levels is somewhat distorting. Having said that I think if you look at the overall half, which is the appropriate way to look at to eradicate that timing difference that we had at the end of Q1, I think both the U. K. and the U. S. have maintained underlying expense growth in the US obviously net of space growth in that low single digits. I think for the balance of the year, we... both divisions will continue to tight control costs. We don't have any specific cost cutting exercises, similar to for example what we had in U. K. at the beginning of 2006, when we reacted to the change in activity. But overall continued tight control of cost will remain important. Clearly for the second half when you look at the amount of expenses which you can vary, they are somewhat less particularly the U. S., where advertising then takes a higher proportion of total sales. And the Terry has said we continue to invest in advertising at the same percent of sales. So, I would continue to look for underlying cost increases certainly in the low to slightly under mid single digits. But we don't have any plans for specific cost reduction exercise. I think it's just generally very tight control of day to day expenses. As far as H. Samuel closures…

Andrew Hughes - UBS Warburg

Management

Thank you.

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

I think, I would just add to that, there is a shift in the U. K. market to some bigger centers which obviously have an impact on the surrounding smaller market, shopping centers. So, you're seeing these examples that come to mind are the center that's built in Bristol or White City and they do... these bigger centers allow us the opportunity or give us the opportunity to open bigger stores, provide a larger selection of merchandise and better customer service. So if other retailers are doing the same thing and they are then that does tend to impact some of the smaller market areas with smaller stores, and you are really into... it's just a slow evolutionary market shift and we are optimizing our portfolio, because of that... because that's where the market is going.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

[Indiscernible] from Credit Suisse over here. Just a couple of things. Talking about the U. S. expansion program obviously taking place against the backdrop of pretty difficult market conditions in the U. S. generally. Is this allowing you to sort of reduce proxy cost so to achieve much better proxy deals, should we be sort of factoring in... sort of cash inducements or lower rent per square foot, from what you are opening at the moment? And second question as far as the U. K. credit operation is concerned can you give us some idea of what you hope to achieve in terms of scale up the operation and profitability over what sort of time scale?

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

In terms of the U. S. there is a slowdown, there is not a... we are not going backwards in terms of retail sales. So, the property costs are... we haven't noticed any difference in property costs and don't anticipate any meaningful changes in the basic cost structure. Especially for the very best space and that's what we require, and the very best space is still rare, has more buyers and sellers. And we... for that space we would not expect any fundamental change in the... nor are we seeing any fundamental change in the pricing. In terms of the credit card program, this is, I want to make it clear that... I want to emphasize that this is a third party program. So, I think your question went to scale it's not an issue like in the U. S. business where you would have scale up. The thing that we are trying to achieve is, this is a unique credit program with a lot of options and choices for the customer in terms of purchase plans that's modeled after our programs in our U. S. business and the offering if you will, in our U. S. business. As you know, we've got 50% of our sales approximately on credit in the U. S. business. So, we have not just adapted administering credit, but our sales people are very adapted selling it. And a lot of the program is about... a lot of the skill comes in matching the customers' needs with the appropriate payment plan suggesting it, knowing how to suggest credit, when to integrate into the sale or introduce it into the sale and how to close the sale with credit. We have taken those training methods over here and developed a unique credit offering certainly in the jewellery market with three different choices that we will be offering the customer this year in... or this holiday... this Christmas season with an interest free program, buy now pay later program, which is also interest free. And most of our sales are on those two programs. And then there is also a traditional interest bearing program. So, what we achieve... what we expect to achieve from it is that which we have achieved in our test in the four areas which is increase sales. How much you want to know, that's why you are smiling?

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Yes that might be the idea behind it for asking us...

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

Well so you can... right.

Walker Boyd - Group Finance Director

Management

I think it's important, when you say how profitable. We're not... just as in the States, we're not going to... is not being run as a profitable credit business, is not being run as a profit center. It is a sales enabler and clearly we would hope it will facilitate sales. In terms of profitability, it should be reflected more in the top line rather than looking as a separate profit center.

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

You can bet, for competitive reasons we are not going to share the lift that we get. But you can bet since we've been testing it and we're rolling it out, you can bet that it's the sales, more than cut... the incremental sales more than cover the cost to the program.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Jamie Asmoto [ph] from Deutsche Bank. Can you tell us whether there is any CapEx differential between the new Ernest Jones refit and the old ones and whether any of the watch brands contribute anything to this? And then secondly, just on watches in general, which have been strong industry wide and globally, what happened to gross margin in that product category?

Walker Boyd - Group Finance Director

Operator

I think the answer to your first question both your first questions are no. I think that we would expect the cost of the enhanced design, that we showed the photograph the cost per store is not going to be materially different from the existing millennium refits. So in terms of overall CapEx no there is no significant, no meaningful change. And no I think in terms of contribution that would be... we haven't received contributions in the past from watch suppliers and we would not anticipate that going forward. In terms of overall gross margins, I don't think the gross margin on the watch category per se percentage has changed. Clearly the favorable mix or the mix to a... the movement in mix towards watches in the first half in EJ was one of the contributing factors to the overall 30 basis points decline in the gross margin. But again the payback in terms of the leverage we get from the extra sales is worth a few basis points in terms of adverse mix on overall gross margin percentage.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And is there any major intra-product group mix change within the watch category?

Walker Boyd - Group Finance Director

Operator

You mean within specific brands?

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Either brands or price points, is it all moving to higher price points?

Walker Boyd - Group Finance Director

Operator

NoI think in... seven brands will do better than others and it would be wrong just to go into that at this time because that tends to be... different brands will perform better or worse so over a cycle. I think in terms of general movement, yes the move towards higher office [ph] selling price that applies both to the more fashioned brands within the... within the Ernest Jones and indeed to the more prestige brands both of which have been strong and in the period for the EJ. I love to say the prestige brands particularly so.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thank you.

Andrew Hughes - UBS Warburg

Management

Yes it is Andy Hughes, another quick, your table on market share the major brands and I know you've obviously been the best performer in that, which is notable that that Tiffany seems to going up in the ranks as well every year. And I guess fine luxury goods generally is performing very strongly in the market. My question is, there anything that they are doing as a group the higher end brands that you think you should be doing in terms of... in terms particularly product or pushing price points higher?

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

I was scrambling from a table because I thought you were referring it to but...

Unidentified Analyst

Management

On page 9.

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

No, I have got it. I think that sector of the market has been, the higher end sector of the market has been strong and I think that's more of a demographic issue than is anything else. Having said that for the past three years, we have meaningfully increased our average transaction values in both the mall stores and in Jared. I think the last two years we were in double digits, and this year we are in mid single digit if I memory serves me correctly. But that's not... we are always test... we are always probing and testing. And we are testing... as we test higher price points, the customers responded them, we are going to lift our ranges up to meet those higher average transaction values and then test it at an even higher level. So it's not... we are not pushing this. The customers are pulling the higher price points from us. So we are working on our basic principle which is pull merchandising versus push merchandising. We're reacting to that which the consumer is responding to in terms of our merchandise offering.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And I say, watch is in the area that worked very well, but do you think other accessories is that's an area where you could push out as well?

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

Our average price points are out there in every category and we've got a new merchandise offering. In Jared, we just put a branded diamond which is exclusive to us. It's called the peerless [ph] and what this is an ideal cut, ideal proportions in terms of the cut of the diamond that scores triple very high on a light reflection scale. So when the light reflection is measured it's brighter, it's more sparkly. And that's exclusive to us. It's something that our merchandise... our merchandise team developed the idea, went to several manufacturers and asked them to if they could produce it. Three of them were unsuccessful and had to dropout, two of them are able to produce it. We've got exclusive rights to this. It is a more expensive product, because to get the right proportion you have more waste when you are cutting the rough. It's probably more than you wanted to know about diamonds. But we're very proud of the program because it gives us a complete... it gives us a product offering that can't be duplicated by our competitors. So, we have got some thing special to offer and the program has been very successful. It's only in the Jared stores and we are taking all the production that the manufactures can cut. So, that's an example of our higher price point that's been successful in helping to drive our sales.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thank you.

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

Any other questions in the room. Okay. We would now like to go to the conference call and operator would you tell us if there us any questions from the conference call.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. We have no questions at this time.

Terry Burman - Group Chief Executive

Management

This is like the fourth time in a row. Well thank you America. Thanks for your support. Any further questions from the room? All right, well thank you for attending.