Dan Fishbein
Analyst · Desjardins Markets. Your line is now open
Yes, thanks, Doug. Great questions. I think there’s a number of different pieces there to go through. So first of all, on the stop-loss experience. As I said earlier, we think that about 60% of the favorable experience in 2021 was from the impact of delays and care due to COVID. But about 40% of it was due to ongoing just really strong underwriting results. So, we in the fourth quarter utilization returned and this is based on overall population statistics as well as what we see in our book of business utilization return very close to normal. So it’s that underlying part a favorable experience that we would expect to continue, but the tailwind from delays and care would not. Now I should caveat that there was a period of time, especially in January, in the first quarter where there were hospitals were very overburdened, but thankfully getting a little better now. So we might see some anomalies in the pattern versus a straight linear path back to complete, normal utilization. As far as the mortality, what we experienced in the fourth quarter was if you look at loss ratios, or mortality as a percent, as a relative portion of the book of business I experienced was middle of the pack compared to peer companies in the US So, nothing unusual in our book of business. Obviously though, very unusual in that we’re having a once in a century pandemic. As you know, with both the delta variants in the fall, and then the Omicron variant extending into January and February, we’re in a very difficult part of the pandemic. At the same time, things are starting to get better. Cash flows, hospitalizations, and now even deaths are starting to fall nationwide. So our belief and our hope, but of course, we can’t predict what will happen, especially with the emergence of new variants. But barring another dramatic new variant, we would expect the COVID impacts to subside after the first quarter. There will still be significant impacts in the first quarter. But we’re hoping that we get to a much more endemic kind of level of impact beyond the first quarter.