Adam Greenlee
Analyst · Bank of Montreal
Sure Mark, it's Adam. There is a couple of things really driving the outlook that we have for 2020 on food can volume, particularly in the U.S. market. The first being that we don't have the negative impact of the Q4 2018 pre-buy, so we're looking for a more normalized year from an overall volume standpoint. Secondly, we spend a pretty good amount of time at our Investor Day, and we've had a lot of dialog on these calls about how -- as Tony mentioned, we are heavily weighted to some of the growth categories of food cans, so items like pet food and protein, we're going to continue to see growth, and even if you go back to our Investor Day, we said at some point, you could see that growth outweighing the general moves of the market for the food can business. So those are our two big items. A third one I'd give you is our soup volumes. I think what you've seen in the last two quarters certainly are positive trends on soup. We're not sure exactly where that's going to go, but we like what we see right now from a promotional activity standpoint and the soup story will continue to play out, as we head through the first quarter of the year. Finally, we talk a lot about pack related volumes. There's two components there, the first being the shelf life of a filled can with either fruits or vegetables from pack related volumes are two to three years on the shelf, and so our customers' can can manage inventory of four packs over the course of a two or three year period, but at some point, that volume is going to have to catch up, and that's what we've seen historically. So it's a little rare for us to see a continued bad packed momentum of, say more than two years. So we are thinking that we're going to have a more normal pack this year. The last component of that is, the one customer that we've been talking about for some time now, is now through their inventory reduction program, and their usage will be more reflective of our volumes to them. And so we don't think there is a lot of downside and that volume, in fact, there might be a little bit of upside. So big answer to your question but a lot of moving parts.