Earnings Labs

Sylvamo Corporation (SLVM)

Q1 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, May 9, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Sylvamo's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, you will have an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, your conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Hans Bjorkman, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.

Hans Bjorkman

Analyst

Thanks, Sarah. Good morning, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2025 earnings call. Our speakers this morning are Jean-Michel Ribiéras, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Sims, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Slides 2 and 3 contain important information, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also present certain non-U.S. GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of those figures to U.S. GAAP financial measures are available in the appendix. Our website also contains copies of the earnings release as well as today's presentation. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jean-Michel. Jean-Michel Ribiéras: Thanks, Hans. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. I'll start on Slide 4, highlighting some news we announced a few weeks ago. After over three decades of working in the paper and packaging industry, I have decided to retire at the end of the year. Serving as the Chairman and CEO of Sylvamo for the past four years has been one of the greatest highlights of my career. I'm pleased that John Sims will become the next CEO of Sylvamo. John was elected Chief Operating Officer effective May 1 and will lead our commercial and operational functions. Following my retirement, John will assume the role of the CEO on January 1, 2026. As you know, John has served as the CFO of Sylvamo since the spin-off and has been instrumental in our work to build the world's paper company and drive our company's strong performance. Don Devlin was named Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective May 1, and is with us here for today's call. You'll hear more from Don in future earnings calls. He joins us from International Paper…

John Sims

Analyst · Bank of America

Thank you, Jean-Michel, and good morning, everyone. I also want to thank Don, who's sitting right next to me. We're in a transition of moving the CFO role quickly over to him and look forward to working in the future with Don. Slide 7 contains our first quarter earnings bridge versus the fourth quarter. The $90 million of adjusted EBITDA was in line with our outlook of $85 million to $105 million. As Jean-Michel mentioned, we had some operational issues in North America, which impacted us by roughly -- by $5 million, $10 million. Half from lower sales volume and half from operations and other costs. This also includes less volume from IP's Riverdale mill than was planned. Price and mix was unfavorable by $10 million, driven by the expected seasonally unfavorable mix in Latin America, lower pulp prices and paper price decreases in Europe and in our export regions. These were partially offset by paper price increase realizations in North America and Brazil. Volume decreased by $30 million, driven by the seasonally weakest demand quarter in Latin America, lower North America volume from IP's Georgetown mill exit and the operational challenges in North America. Operations and other costs were unfavorable by $12 million, primarily driven by unfavorable FX plus the North America operational challenges we mentioned earlier. Planned maintenance outage costs increased by $9 million as we executed major outages at our Saillat and Eastover mills. Input and transportation costs increased by $6 million, primarily driven by seasonally higher energy prices and the longer-than-expected extreme cold weather across the United States in the first quarter. Let's move to Slide 8. We expect to deliver second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $75 million to $95 million. We project price and mix to be favorable by $5 million to $10 million. This…

Hans Bjorkman

Analyst

Thanks, Jean-Michel, and thank you, John. Okay, Sarah, we're ready to take questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America.

George Staphos

Analyst · Bank of America

Jean-Michel, John and Don, congratulations. Yes, and all the best in the next chapters. And Jean-Michel, thanks for all the help, obviously, and you're not retiring yet, but thanks for all the help with our research for everybody on this call since you're in public. I guess the question I had, I didn't really follow what the operational issues were. If you could give us a bit more detail in terms of what happened. And then I know you're not guiding on third quarter, but you mentioned you won't be in a position to recover some of the orders in 2Q. It sounds like some of that might be pushed into 3Q. Is there a way for you to size what that benefit might be as you recapture some of those orders particularly as regards seasonality, Brazil typically picks up to the third quarter as well.

John Sims

Analyst · Bank of America

Yes, George, and thank you. The issues we had with the after multiple reliability issues, both at our Ticonderoga mill and our Eastover mill, a majority of that is behind us. We do have one issue that's in our mid and so it makes it hard to troubleshoot on 1 paper machine at Eastover. That actually is in our outlook in the second quarter. And we think we're going to have that resolved. We should have that result by this quarter. The other thing I'll make a point about is the impact of the Riverdale volume because that doesn't show up in the operations, but it's certainly showing up in the volume. I mean, in fact, they've obviously been having some runability issues themselves, and it really started in the fourth quarter, translated into when it continued into the first and it's also continuing into the second quarter. That in itself is in about almost 30% of what they should be supplying us we haven't been getting. So you can see it actually kind of build up. In the first quarter, we said the impact of all these issues was roughly about $10 million. I would say that the Riverdale conditions also are continuing into the second quarter. And some of that is in our outlook. But if you're trying to get to a number of what would the improvement be in the third quarter, something a little bit less than $10 million. George, that will show up in both ops and volume.

George Staphos

Analyst · Bank of America

Okay. And the related question that I had there was just in general, can you remind us then seasonally what goes well, third quarter versus 2Q. As we recall, LATAM volumes pick up. Is there a way to size that for us? I know you're not guiding on 3Q, but as we're trying to build out our bridges or refine them.

John Sims

Analyst · Bank of America

Yes, George, the best thing I would do is look at what we've done historically. And we break it down by region, and we don't see much difference in that.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Matthew McKellar of RBC Capital Markets.

Matthew McKellar

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Jean-Michel, congratulations on your upcoming retirement and congratulations also to John and Don for their appointments.

John Sims

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Thanks, Matt. Donald Paul Devlin Sylvamo Corporation – Chief Financial Officer Thank you, Matt.

Matthew McKellar

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

I'd like to start by asking just around the changes at Saillat and Nymolla. Could you tell us just a bit more about what the upgrades to your capabilities at Saillat entail and the market opportunity that's leading you to reposition your product mix, but you whether that's entirely serving demand in North America or if there's anything else going on there? And then at Nymolla, what levers do you have to reduce your wood costs and improve efficiency? And as we kind of think about putting this all together how would you have us think about how financially meaningful these changes could be and over what time line? Jean-Michel Ribiéras: Matt, so in Saillat to answer your first question, we've invested on the new and revised winder. This is going giving us the capability to sell roles in Saillat in interesting segments, more specialty rolls segments in Europe. We are quite a different position. I don't know if you got that in mind. In Nymolla, we sell 50% of our business in roles, and we are very successful and 50% in cutsize. In Saillat today, we sell 90% in cutsize and only roughly 10% of growth. This is going to give us a capability to sell much more rules and enter into the specialty segment. So I hope I'm answering your first question. On Europe, in general, in Nymolla, we have great opportunities in operations. We don't run Nymolla mill at the same bench, OEE or if you want cost performance that we run the other mills. We've done some investments in capital, but also in people. And we're continuing to do that. And that gives you quite a lot of cost opportunities to improve Nymolla. And in Saillat, it's mostly mix and also looking at our fixed costs mostly.

John Sims

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Yes. And I'll just add to that, Matthew, you asked about the leverage that we have in reducing the wood costs. So when we purchased the Nymolla mill, it was an agreement that we would continue to source the wood from a company that's owned by a store. One of the options we have is to go that directly right to the land owners, which cuts out some of the costs around that. The other opportunity we have is actually importing in the lower cost wood. And then there's operational improvements where we increased the yield and reduce the consumption of wood going forward. There are some of the levers that we're pulling. In terms of the levers, how much we're targeting for is we're looking at and targeting at least a 10% reduction. Jean-Michel Ribiéras: I think, Matt, you asked also a question on Europe profitability in general. And as we mentioned, we're clearly not satisfied we are clearly expecting a significant improvement in 2026 and now building programs to be back to cost of capital in 2027. So that's the plan we have as of today.

Matthew McKellar

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

That's helpful. Last one for me. There is a comment that some shifts in uncoated freesheet and pulp trade flows are already starting to materialize. Could you just elaborate on what you're seeing and kind of how that's affecting you by markets?

John Sims

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Yes, I'll take that one. The -- this is -- what makes it difficult around trying to assess the impact of tariffs because some of it is probably the most impactful to us to potentially be the secondary effects of the negotiations that are ongoing and give you some examples that we've seen -- like we talked about increased imports into the U.S. Some of that, we believe, could be due to prebuying or getting ahead of the tariffs in North America as an example. We also have seen in Europe, just reported this month by Fastmarkets so we see that pulp prices decreased almost EUR 40 a tonne on BEK coming out of Brazil, and that's really driven because of the significant decrease in pulp demand in China. And then that's coming over to Europe. So that's some of the impacts that we're seeing as a result of this tariff situation here in the U.S.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Daniel Harriman with Sidoti.

Daniel Harriman

Analyst · Sidoti

I echo the congratulations given by Matt and George. I had a question about your capital spending for the balance of the year. If we look at what you spent in the first quarter, that run rate won't get you to your guidance of $220 million to $240 million for the year. So I'm just curious how we should think about that over the last three quarters, understanding that you don't guide to cash flow, but just trying to get a sense of what we should be looking for the last nine months?

John Sims

Analyst · Sidoti

Daniel, we do -- we haven't changed the revision on full year capital. And whereas most of our outages in the first half of the year, the second half will be somewhat influenced by the large capital projects we have associated with Eastover both the speed up and the new sheeter. So the full year guidance will still be $220 million to $240 million. Jean-Michel Ribiéras: Daniel, Jean-Michel. I would just maybe add something. I think when you look at free cash flow, and we've had, I would call it, the issue last year and the one before, we are very strongly second half of the year cash flow. Our two last years were 90% of our cash flow the last two quarters of the year. We expect about the same this year. So I know sometimes in your modeling, it's a little bit difficult to do, but this is what we've seen historically speaking, you've got it in our appendix slides, and we expect about the same thing this year. So a very significant increase in cash flow for the second half of the year.

Operator

Operator

The next question is a follow-up from George Staphos with Bank of America.

George Staphos

Analyst · Bank of America

John, Jean-Michel, Don you mentioned on one of the slides that you think the North American demand is down 1%, but that is I guess, if you will, higher than underlying demand because it reflects imports. So I guess two parts, imports, you think are going into inventory right now and prebuying, putting that comment together with another one you just made, that will be, I guess, something that has to be absorbed and being overhang for a little while? And then I think you said, overall, you think demand is 3% to 4% on an underlying basis. Is that what your expectation will be for industry shipments over the rest of the year? And how would those figures map? When do you think they should ultimately align the demand versus shipments in 3Q, 4Q and the like? I'll turn it over there.

John Sims

Analyst · Bank of America

Yes. So the comment there was the apparent demand and we called out the word apparent because it's calculated when you looked at domestic shipments plus imports/exports. And that's being reported is down negative 1%, but we believe that underlying demand is really down 3% to 4% to the point you just -- you made, George, because you count the imports as soon as they hit the port. And typically, that -- and there was a large surge of imports, particularly in January in the first quarter, and so we think that, that has made demand look stronger than it actually is. But yes, it's in inventory, and that will be probably consumed going forward. If you look at the numbers, it's only -- I think it's reported, but February numbers, import numbers were a little bit, I guess, not full, but they were lower than January. So we think some of this is due to just the timing of the imports coming in like the first quarter demand maybe looks stronger than what we actually see.

George Staphos

Analyst · Bank of America

And when do you think -- go ahead, jean, I'm sorry. Jean-Michel Ribiéras: No, that was Jean-Michel, sorry. I just wanted to integrate when we look in terms of demand, especially for Sylvamo I'm taking our order flow, not only because we've had some issues in the mills, but in general, the demand we're seeing with our customers is strong. We are full.

John Sims

Analyst · Bank of America

Yes, I think you were asking about the costing shipment, George. So my comment on this there was some capacity that closed last year. So domestic -- just that in itself would lower domestic shipments. And then there was a mill that was recently announced that may be setting down at the end of this year. But -- so we would expect domestic shipments to be down just because of the capacity closures, but as Jean-Michel said, operating rates are in the mid -- low 90s domestically.

George Staphos

Analyst · Bank of America

Very good. Another question I had, and I'll turn it over, actually. So the operational issues, thank you for going through those earlier, do they affect at all the progress on Eastover with your bigger projects? And if you can just give us a quick update on how that's going.

John Sims

Analyst · Bank of America

No, they do not. Just to be frank with you. They did not impact that. And actually, those projects are going well from a timing perspective. So we're still seeing startup next year on that. It's on schedule, on time. No impact there.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] I'll now turn the call back over to Hans Bjorkman for closing comments.

Hans Bjorkman

Analyst

All right. Thank you, everybody, for joining our call today. We appreciate your interest in Sylvamo, and we look forward to continued conversations in the coming weeks. Thank you very much. Jean-Michel Ribiéras: Thank you, everybody.

Operator

Operator

Once again, we would like to thank you for participating in Sylvamo's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. You may now disconnect.