Shelly R. Ibach
Analyst · Stifel
Thanks, Dave. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Today, I'll discuss fourth quarter results including what we are doing to deliver short-term performance while we position the company for sustained long-term growth. I'll also speak to our outlook for 2014. We remain confident in our strategy in competitive differentiators, which include proprietary products, exclusive distribution and an unparalleled customer experience. In 2013, we made progress in strengthening these advantages for the long term, while generating operating cash flow of $88 million. However, our short-term sales growth was slower than planned, creating pressure on our bottom line. While the current retail environment invites aggressive discounting and commoditization, we remain focused on game-changing improvements in our customer sleep experience and on delivering growth over the long term. In the fourth quarter, total net sales increased 5% to $231 million, with EPS of $0.12. Our comparable store sales were flat versus prior year. The 6% sales growth, within company-controlled channels, included a 4% increase in ASP, driven by product innovation and pricing actions taken over the past 12 months and 2 points from mattress unit growth. We added 17 net new stores in the quarter. New store growth from the past 12 months contributed 6 points of sales growth in the fourth quarter, which was consistent with our plan. Here's what happened in the quarter and why. Sales were on track with our expectations through Cyber Monday, with comps exceeding our mid-single-digit guidance. Traffic declined through the remainder of fiscal December. Our traffic trends were consistent with ShopperTrak's report of an approximate 18% decrease in mall traffic in December. We believe this decline was due to multiple factors including the compressed consumer calendar in December, reduced marketing effectiveness and, possibly, weather, which impacted 2 of our 4 regions. In response to this traffic decline, we reduced our media in December, but it wasn't enough to compensate for the sales decline. Media deleveraged 140 basis points in the quarter. Gross margin also deleveraged by 260 basis points due primarily to promotion mix combined with the impact of more generous return policies implemented earlier in the year. We lowered operating expenses throughout the quarter and achieved a 50-basis-point year-over-year improvement in G&A expense as a percent of net sales. Our long-term growth strategy involves meaningful product innovation combined with increasing brand awareness and local market development. We have these initiatives underway to strengthen each of these components in 2014 while maintaining a strong cash position. I'll start with what we're doing to improve our marketing effectiveness to increase brand awareness, traffic and unit sales. First, we have just introduced a new advertising campaign called "No Better Sleep" to support our new product innovation and drive brand awareness. This work is the most tested creative we've ever produced, and testing results suggest that this campaign can break through and increase brand awareness with our target customer in a cluttered marketplace. Second, we have been testing adjustments to our marketing mix to reach our customers more effectively. It is still early in the process, but we do plan to leverage media in the back half of 2014 by over 100 basis points. Third, and not least, we recently recruited Kevin Brown, a uniquely qualified marketer, as our new Chief Marketing Officer. Kevin has broad consumer experience and a proven track record in consumer durables, retail and business development. With respect to local market development, we are expanding and optimizing our exclusive national distribution, particularly in underdeveloped markets. Approximately 25% of our leases have been expiring each year since 2010, providing us an opportune time to improve the quality of our store portfolio. During the past 2 years, we've completed over 200 store buildouts, nearly half of our current store base, including new stores, relocations from mall to non-mall and expansion remodels within the mall, all funded through cash generated from our operations. Over the past few years, these real estate actions have contributed to increased sales and profit per store as we build toward our long-term goal of over $3 million in average annual sales per store. At the same time, these investments in our retail customer experience have increased our fixed cost base in the form of occupancy, depreciation and fixed store compensation. In 2014, fixed selling expenses are expected to increase, year-over-year, by $27 million, which is similar to the increases experienced in 2012 and 2013. This is an important consideration in modeling our business for 2014 and beyond. While these market development investments have impacted our profit in the short term, they also position us well for longer-term upside as our advertising becomes more effective in this consumer environment. Here are a few specifics. Today, we deliver a consumer-validated, value-added experience in our stores as indicated by annual average revenue per comp store of $2.1 million. New stores continue to have an average payback of less than 2 years with cannibalization rates at less than 15%. And one additional mattress unit transaction per store a week generates approximately $70 million in annual, incremental sales. The point here is the power of the business model, which achieves significant sales and profit leverage as we grow and why these investments are important to our organic growth strategy. Product innovation is also a core element of our strategy and a key element in building brand awareness. Over the coming months, we will introduce some of the most significant advancements to the product portfolio in our company's history. These introductions are the result of the investments we've made over the past 18 to 24 months, including the acquisition of Comfortaire, and the minority investment in one of our R&D partners. Specifically, last month, we introduced the Sleep Number x12 bed with Sleep IQ technology at the International Consumer Electronics Show. The proprietary platform of the Sleep Number x12 bed integrates several technologies with our exclusive DualAir technology, to deliver a simple, yet individualized consumer experience that comprehensively tracks and monitors your sleep without the need for any wearable devices. It communicates how you slept via your personal Sleep IQ score and shows what support and comfort adjustments you can make to your Sleep Number setting and your daily routine to improve your sleep. And it is designed and conceived for an evolving future, including the ability to push software updates with new features to existing customers. Importantly, we will deploy several of the technologies featured in the x12 bed across the entire Sleep Number product line in the coming months. We expect these meaningful and proprietary consumer benefits to further strengthen our value equation at all price points. Our excitement and consumer research was certainly validated by the enthusiastic press and National Innovation Award recognition we have received. In addition, we are receiving high satisfaction scores from our customers on the new products that we introduced in 2013. And a leading national consumer magazine just rated the Sleep Number Innovation Series i8 as its top-rated bed. It's the only mattress that aced their back support test. As planned, we invested and expensed an incremental $3 million in Q4 versus prior year to support new products that will be introduced in the front half of 2014. These introductions will include all-new Classic Series beds, featuring an edge-to-edge design, with increased comfort and support and prices still starting at $999. We are also introducing an expanded FlexFit adjustable base series with new consumer benefits, such as the Partner Snore feature. In addition, we have a new mattress design called the FlexTop, which will be available across our entire line. This design enables individuals to independently adjust the top half of their side of the bed while still sleeping together on one mattress. While we expect these heavily researched product introductions to drive incremental ASP and units, it will take time to monetize our innovation and we have reflected this in our forecast. Now to our 2014 outlook. We expect a mixed consumer environment to continue, so we are projecting our top line growth to be consistent with our current 13-week trend. Specifically, we are planning for mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth in 2014, including 5 to 6 points from net new stores and the impact of the 53rd week. We expect positive sales growth each quarter accelerating in the back half of the year. While we would be delighted with quick customer uptake of our innovations, we have built very little into our short-term forecast. In keeping with the mixed consumer outlook, we slowed the pacing of our local market development initiatives including net new stores of 5% to 7% versus our previous plans for 6% to 9% and we plan to hold our capital expenditure level similar to 2013. Additionally, we are actively containing cost across the company while prioritizing our top initiatives, which include product innovation. Our key assumptions built into the 2014 outlook include: depreciation and amortization of approximately $43 million, which represents a $12 million increase from 2013; sales and marketing expenses at approximately 46% of net sales; and G&A of approximately $80 million. The slower growth top line forecast will challenge our near-term bottom line. For 2014, we expect EPS to be roughly flat versus 2013, including a year-over-year decline in the first half similar to what we experienced in the back half of 2013. The investment to support our product innovation introductions will add an incremental $7 million to the first half expenses compared to prior year. In the second half of the year, we expect EPS improvement year-over-year as we advance our initiatives and benefit from the 53rd week. Consistent with our cash advantage model, we're projecting positive free cash flow, with year-end cash remaining above our targeted minimum balance of $125 million. At the top of the call, I spoke to our confidence, as measured by testing and consumer feedback, in our growth strategy and business model as we strengthen our key differentiators to drive long-term shareholder value. The environment has definitely changed and we are dealing with a careful and discerning consumer in an increasingly commoditized and competitive landscape. Despite short-term challenges, we tenaciously advanced our product, stores and brand experience. And now, we must strengthen our marketing engines to optimize these investments and drive awareness, traffic and units. While our initiatives will take time to mature in the consumer space, we believe we are working on the right things for long-term performance and we will provide updates on our progress. Thank you for your attention. We now welcome your questions. Gabrielle, would you please open the line for questions?