Drew Evans
Analyst · Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead
Thanks, Tom, and good afternoon everyone. I hope you’re all safe and well. As Tom mentioned, we had a very strong start to the year. Our adjusted EPS for the first quarter of 2021 was $0.98, $0.20 higher than last year and $0.14 above our estimate. The primary drivers compared to last year was strong performance at our state-regulated utilities, despite a comparative quarter that had very limited COVID-19 impacts. The lessons we learned during COVID-19 allowed us to maintain a relatively static cost structure as we saw a withdrawal of COVID-19 impacts from their peak. We saw year-over-year benefit of $0.06 from weather due to the extremely mild first quarter we experienced in 2020. Further, retail electric revenues increased in aggregate due to strong customer growth in the Southeast and constructive state regulatory actions. When looking at an adjusted EPS as compared to our estimate for the quarter, the main drivers of the positive variance were continued expense discipline, retail sales impacts from COVID-19 that were nearly 60% better than our forecast across all customer classes and significantly lower than their peak and residential customer growth that has continued to exceed our expectation by almost 50%, we added nearly 60,000 customers last year. A detailed reconciliation of our report and adjusted quarterly results as compared to 2020 is included in today’s release and the earnings package. Looking more closely at sales in the first quarter, weather-normal retail sales were only approximately 1.5% lower than last year’s largely unaffected quarter. This decrease was driven by the continued trends of higher residential sales offset by lower commercial and industrial sales compared to normal times. While residential sales remained elevated, commercial and industrial sales continue to be depressed by about 3%. As you would expect, the commercial sub-sectors most impacted by the pandemic continue to be office, restaurant and education. These are meaningful declines and we expect recovery to be very gradual, even with improving economic conditions. For industrial sales during the quarter, supply chain constraints appear to be affecting the automotive sector with primary metals and chemicals also down, but construction and lumber in particular are demonstrating early strength. In general, all industrial segments have moved stronger since the COVID-19 peak. The economies in our service territory are showing strong signs of recovery with retail sales exceeding our expectations in the first quarter by roughly 3 percentage points. A recent analysis produced by IHS Markit estimates that most Southeastern states, including Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi are predicted to return to their pre-pandemic peak employment levels by 2022, while other states may not return to these levels until 2025 and beyond. We have certainly learned that the COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts are unpredictable, but the potential for more near-term recovery is encouraging. We mentioned on our last call that economic development trends are strong in our region, particularly in Georgia. And in fact, in the first quarter of 2021 alone, economic development announcements in Southern Company’s retail electric service territory, included the addition of over 3,600 new jobs and investments of more than $2.2 billion. We saw strong activity in both non-manufacturing and manufacturing segments with new project announcements across a variety of industries, including warehousing, distribution, scientific and transportation equipment among others. For the second quarter of 2021, our estimated EPS – our adjusted EPS estimate is $0.78. I would also like to call your attention to our recent dividend increase. At its last meeting, the Southern Company board of directors approved an $0.08 per share increase in our common dividend, raising our annualized rate to $2.64 per share. This action marks our 20th consecutive annual increase and for 73 years, dating back to 1948, Southern Company has paid a dividend that was equal to or greater than that of the previous year. The Board’s decision to increase the dividend reinforces the strength and sustainability of Southern Company’s business. This dedication to continuing our dividend increases combined with our projected long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7%, supports our objective of providing superior risk adjusted total shareholder return to investors over the long-term. Before I turn the call back to Tom, I’d like to spend a few minutes providing an update on some of our strategic priorities. On our ESG efforts, recall in January, Southern Company became the first major U.S. utility to publish a sustainable financing framework. Our first issuance was a green bond related to Southern Power’s renewable investments, further solidifying Southern Power is one of the largest green bond issuers in the United States. In February, we issued our inaugural sustainable bond at Georgia Power with net proceeds to be used for sustainable projects, such as our spending with diverse and small business suppliers and our investment in renewable energy projects. The Georgia Power issuance aligns with our ongoing commitments to the community and the continued growth of Georgia Power solar portfolio. We look forward to leveraging our sustainable financing framework for future financings by all of our issuers as appropriate. Also I’d mentioned that Southern Power has been very active over the last few years, establishing itself as one of the nation’s largest renewable generation owners with a total renewable portfolio of nearly 5,000 megawatts in operation are under construction. Within the last month, Southern Power announced the acquisition of the 300-megawatt Deuel Harvest wind facility located in South Dakota and the 118-megawatt Glass Sands wind facility located in Oklahoma. With these acquisitions, Southern Power now owns 15 wind projects and approximately 2,500 megawatts of solar across the U.S. along with approximately 160 megawatts of battery storage. The existing generation fleet comprised of both renewables and natural gas is over 90% contracted for the next 10 years. Finally, over the past three years, we have strategically simplified our business in order to focus our time and investments in our core operations. As another example of that commitment, yesterday, we entered into an agreement to sell our wholesale gas trading and services business comprised of Sequent Energy Management and Sequent Energy Canada and we expect to complete the transaction in the third quarter of 2021. We do not expect a material gain or loss on the sale of the business, there we’ll provide a return of the associated working capital and the elimination of certain credit supports of approximately $1 billion. As a reminder, we have always excluded Sequent’s earnings from our adjusted results due to its quarterly variability. So the sale of this business both reduces risk and has no impact on our adjusted EPS expectations for the remainder of the year. I’d like to personally thank the team at Sequent for their years of dedication and service to the company. I can tell you that it’s been my pleasure working with all of those individuals at Sequent for more than 20 years. And I really look forward to their continued success. Tom, with that, I’ll turn it back over to you.