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Sohu.com Limited (SOHU)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Mon, Feb 4, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and good evening. Thank you for joining Sohu's Fourth Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After managements' prepared remarks, there will be a Q&A session. Today's conference call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today's conference call, Tip Fleming from Christensen. Please go ahead, sir.

Tip Fleming

Management

Thank you, operator. Thank you all for joining us today to discuss Sohu.com's fourth quarter 2012 results. On the call are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Charles Zhang; Co-President and Chief Operating Officer, Belinda Wang; Co-President and Chief Financial Officer, Carol Yu. Also with us from Changyou are Chief Executive Officer, Tao Wong; President, Dewen Chen; Chief Operating Officer, Xiaojian Hong; Chief Information Officer, Wendy Pan; and Chief Financial Officer, Alex Ho. And we also have CEO of Sogou, Xiaochuan Wang; Vice President of Sohu and CEO of Sohu Video, Ye Deng. Before management begins their prepared remarks, I would like to remind you of the Company's Safe Harbor statement in connection with today's conference call. Except for the historical information contained herein, the matters discussed in this conference call are forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections and therefore you should place no undue reliance on them. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. We caution you that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. For more information about the potential risks and uncertainties, please refer to the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its registration statement and most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K. Now, let me turn the call over to Dr. Charles Zhang, Chairman and CEO. Charles, please proceed.

Charles Zhang

Management

Thank you. And thanks to everyone for joining our call. We are pleased to report that Sohu Group ended 2012 with an encouraging fourth quarter. Looking at 2012, despite the slowdown in China's economic growth, I am pleased that the Group's total earning revenues rose 25% year-on-year and it surpassed the $1 billion mark for the first time in our history setting an important milestone for our Group. Our business units, for online video, we achieved initial success of our newly established but dedicated sales team as the business returned to growth in the fourth quarter. We expect the performance to further to accelerate in 2013. Sogou once again achieved triple digit year-on-year revenue growth in 2012 and we were thrilled with some notable breakthrough products on the mobile side that have been well received by our users. For Changyou, strong performance from both MMO and the web games helped have post the new records for revenues. Now I would like to share some fourth quarter financial highlights with you, first; record total revenues and record revenues in brand advertising, Sogou and online game businesses. Total revenues were $299 million, up 22% year-over-year and 5% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the high end of our guidance by $6 million. Net brand advertising revenues were $82 million, up 6% year-over-year and 5% quarter-over-quarter. Sogou revenues were $41 million, up 78% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter. Online games revenue were $159 million, up 29% year-over-year and a 5% quarter-over-quarter. Non-GAAP diluted EPS were $0.73, exceeding the high-end of group guidance by $0.08. For the full-year of 2012 record total revenues and record revenues in brand advertising; Sogou and online game businesses. Total revenues were $1.67 billion, up 25% year-over-year. Net brand advertising revenues were $290 million, up 4% year-over-year. Sogou revenues are $131 million, up 108%…

Belinda Wang

Management

Hi, thank you, Charles. The data shows that the number of visitors and the page views of Sohu.com homepage both grew about 25% in the past 12 months, demonstrating our position one of the most influential online media in China. In the fourth quarter, our brand advertising revenues were at the high end of our prior guidance. This was mainly due to solid performance from the auto, online video and the real estate sectors. We previously expected our first fourth quarter for the auto industry, as Japanese car makers would be cautious with their marketing promotions. Nonetheless this negative impact was largely offset by the growth in marketing spending among non-Japanese car makers. For, online video with our dedicated sales team now in place, our monetization capabilities have improved. In addition to good FMCG client coverage in the third quarter, we started to engage with more non-FMCG clients in the fourth quarter. Total number of clients also grew by 18% quarter-over-quarter. We expect the sales growth momentum in our video business to continue in 2013. For the first quarter video revenues should achieve double-digit sequential growth backing the trend of the first quarter typically being the slow season due to the Chinese New year holiday break. We are now in discussions with key advertisers and agencies about '12 and '13 full year budgets and have received encouraging feedback thus far. Based on the current information for the first quarter of '12, '13 we expect for Sogou Group including 17173 brand ad revenues before tax to be between $86 million and $88 million, net brand ad revenues to be between $78 million and $80 million despite a sequential decrease of 2% to 5% (inaudible). Now, I will turn the call over to our Co-President and CFO, Carol Yu, who will walk you through the quarter's financials. Carol?

Carol Yu

Management

Thank you, Belinda and hello, everyone. I will now take you through our financials for the fourth quarter. One, revenues; total revenues were $299 million, up 22% year-over-year and 5% quarter-over-quarter. Brand advertising revenues were $82 million, up 6% year-over-year and 5% quarter-over-quarter. Sogou revenues were $41 million, up 78% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter. Of this, Search related revenues were $30 million, up 68% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter, the number of Search customers and the average spending per customer, increased by 37% and 33% year-over-year. Online games revenues were $159 million, up 29% year-over-year and 5% quarter-over-quarter. Wireless revenues were $13 million, a year-over-year decrease of 13% and quarter-over-quarter decrease of 12%. Now, let me provide some more details with our other financials. From now on, most of the figures discussed will be on non-GAAP. As a reminder, you can find a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures in our official earnings release. Two, gross margins; non-GAAP gross margin in the fourth quarter was 69%, compared with 66% in the previous quarter and 71% for the same period last year. Three, operating expenses; non-GAAP operating expenses for the fourth quarter of 2012 totaled $138 million, an increase of 40% from the previous quarter and an increase of 46% from the same period last year. Both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter increases were primarily due to an increase in salaries and compensation expenses as a result of increased headcount and higher expenses associated with marketing and promotional activities. Four, operating margins; non-GAAP operating margin was 23%, compared with 24% in the previous quarter and 33% in the same period of 2011. Five; income tax expense. GAAP income tax expense was $20 million. Excluding a non-cash income tax expense of $2 million recorded for the utilization of tax benefits from excess tax reductions related to…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. And your first question comes from the line of Dick Wei from JPMorgan. Pleaseyou’re your question. Dick Wei – JPMorgan: Hello and thank you for taking my questions. If I just look at the portal business only, I wonder, how is the mobile usage impacting the PC traffic at the key verticals, for example, on News BYD F8 or video, is there any difference? Also given the limited inventory on mobile, how should I be thinking about ad rate and ad revenue for the PC portal going forward?

Carol Yu

Management

On pricing, I’ll take that.

Charles Zhang

Management

Okay. So, let me answer the first part of the question. I think the mobile traffic for Sohu News and content had an indirect impact on the traffic on the PC platform. It's by having higher awareness of Sohu's content. More people will come back to PC, when they are by their PC, when their PC are nearby. So when they are using the PC, so it's indirect, but we do have news and content improvement itself that and also the improvement of its layout and its other channels that helped us to achieve a 25% growth on the front page of the Sohu traffic on the PC platform. Carol?

Carol Yu

Management

On the advertising rates. As usual increase our rates every two year, every two quarters, so we intend to do the same. On the video side, the increase will be a bit more dramatic, it could be north of 30% up to 50%. Dick Wei – JPMorgan: Okay, great. So, this cannot much impact on the PC traffic. Maybe if you can share what is the percentage of mobile traffic now on the portal?

Charles Zhang

Management

Well we said the 25% on the front page doesn't include the mobile traffic.

Carol Yu

Management

The 25% is an increase in UVs. Dick Wei – JPMorgan: And if I look at percentage of mobile traffic as total, what would it look like?

Charles Zhang

Management

No, we didn't give out the mobile traffic number. Dick Wei – JPMorgan: Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Eddie Leung from Merrill Lynch. Please ask your question. Eddie Leung – Merrill Lynch: Good evening, thank you for taking my questions. My question is more on the margin trend. If you could share more colors first on the margin trends of portal business in first quarter 2013. It seems like by deducting the forecast of Changyou, seems like the margins of portal would drop quite a bit in the first quarter, so besides normal seasonality is there any factor that would be watchful? Thank you.

Carol Yu

Management

The increase in both cost of revenues as well is maybe due to the bandwidth, additional bandwidth cost that comes with additional traffic, especially on the video side. And then the overall increase in OpEx is really related to headcount increase, compensation benefits across all business lines. Eddie Leung – Merrill Lynch: Carol, can I have a follow-up question on your comment on the bandwidth cost? It seems like usually when we look at the bandwidth cost there could be some operating leverage into the following quarters, because usually portals with high bandwidth in-house, right?

Carol Yu

Management

Yes and no. If our bandwidth is the consumption rate is higher. So we do expect of course, we did say that we have secured the Voice of China. So, we will expect another big jump in bandwidth cost in the third quarter, when we see the traffic coming in from that very hit show. Eddie Leung – Merrill Lynch: Now, that’s very helpful, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ming Zhao from 86Research. Please ask your question. C. Ming Zhao – 86Research Ltd.: Thank you. And I also have a follow-up question to Eddie's question. So, implied in your guidance, a very significant cost increase due to the content cost for the video, and also if you look at the product development expense and market expense in the fourth quarter that did it go up. So my question is what is the major spending there, are they going to continue into the future quarters? Thank you.

Carol Yu

Management

As I have explained, the major increase in cost and spending for Q1 is relating to bandwidth and HR related cost, so that would go into the rest of the quarters. And what's your earlier question, Ming? C. Ming Zhao – 86Research Ltd.: I am just trying to understand if the video content cost is going up as you are acquiring more and more exclusive content?

Carol Yu

Management

Yes. We do expect to increase our content acquisition for the year of 2013. In the last year, our total content acquired for programs that were launched during 2012 is about $60 million. We do expect that number to go up to $70 million to $80 million for 2013, but with our improved monetization, we are very comfortable with that. C. Ming Zhao – 86Research Ltd.: Just to clarify, the content cost to last year was $70 million to $80 million?

Carol Yu

Management

No, last year it was $60 million and 2013 we are budgeting for $70 million to $80 million. But that's the contract value, not the amortization value. C. Ming Zhao – 86Research Ltd.: That's cash flows?

Carol Yu

Management

Contract value. C. Ming Zhao – 86Research Ltd.: Okay, all right. Contract value. Okay, all right. So what about the expenses in R&D and marketing and sales, in the fourth quarter there is a significant increase there? Can you comment to what has led to that kind of increase and are we going to see this continue going forward?

Carol Yu

Management

We always have very strong emphasis on R&D and you are looking at it on a Group level so both Changyou and Sogou and Sohu are all putting in lots of product innovation effort. So yes you will be seeing that throughout the year. And Ming you have many follow-up questions already. C. Ming Zhao – 86Research Ltd.: All right, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Alicia Yap from Barclays. Please ask your question. Alicia Yap – Barclays Capital: Hi, good evening everyone. I just have questions on video related it maybe a few sections of it. So just wonder, if you could share with us how you see the online video landscape going forward? Do you think the market could accommodate several players where you certainly have several choices or do you anticipate further market consolidations? And then just quickly on you previously commented that you expect the video business to achieve profitability in about 18 to 24 months do you still expect to achieve that target? Thank you.

Charles Zhang

Management

Well, the first part of the question, I think, for video business, it’s most parties really media business, so it can unlike the social network business actually winner takes all you actually have, actually kind of accommodates quite a number I feel players at the same time to survive. I think now there are already this several leading video players and I think these are the players that will last for the future. And…

Belinda Wang

Management

Alicia what's your second question again? Alicia Yap – Barclays Capital: Second question, you previously mentioned you target to achieve profitability for the video business in 18 to 24 months, so do you still expect that target to be met or maybe achieved earlier?

Belinda Wang

Management

We expect that target to be met. I still maintain 18 to 24 months. Alicia Yap – Barclays Capital: Okay, thank you. I’ll get back to the queue.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Philip Wan from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question. Philip Wan – Morgan Stanley: Hi, thanks for taking my question. First of all, your first quarter guidance implied pretty strong brand advertising outlook. Could you break down the growth between online portal and online video? And then my second question is about your Sogou business, could you share with us how many advertisers you have for the pay-for-click service this quarter and also the competitive dynamic in the pay service market especially assets sequestering and meaningful traffic market share and your traffic acquisition cost trend if possible? Thank you.

Belinda Wang

Management

I will take the first question. Like what we have said, we are seeing very strong traction for the online video business going into Q1 upon our accomplishing our dedicated sales team. So and then we already gave out all the quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year increase for that segment which is, we expect the year-on-year growth for video in Q1 would be north of 70%. So and then for the other segments, we expect a traditional seasonality for the portal business, ex-video. And then we do expect a stabilized stream of revenue from our real estate business. And then we do see some seasonality again in our 17173.com, the games portal. (Foreign Language)

Carol Yu

Management

So for advertisers for Sogou, in 2012 Q4 we have 39,800 advertisers with the quarter-over-quarter 10% increase and a year-over-year 37% increase. (Foreign Language)

Carol Yu

Management

So from the Search query front for Q4 we have 71 million Search queries and up 1% quarter-over-quarter for our competitors in the market they haven’t announced disclosed such information. That's it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jiong Shao from Macquarie. Please ask your question. Jiong Shao – Macquarie Research: Good evening, thank you for taking my question. My question is on Sogou, given the new entrants in the Search business, I was wondering could you talk about what do you see comparatively in terms of your market share? For example, are you experiencing any kind of market share loss because of the new competitor and what's your long-term strategic goal for this division is IPO, sometime in the near-term horizon? And also related to Sogou, your guidance if I remember correctly, you are guiding Q1 to be down 13% to 17% sequentially. That seems to be a little bit worse than your leading competitor typically seen in the past for Q1 seasonality. I was wondering, what are the differences in your Search business versus theirs, sort of indicating why that's a bigger sequential decline for the Search business? Thank you. (Foreign Language)

Belinda Wang

Management

Okay, so, for the Search query, typically, it comes from the Search front and then also from the browser effect. So in the 2013, we'll in-force our growth in the browser effect to secure our Search query growth. (Foreign Language)

Belinda Wang

Management

We don't have a timeframe, timeline for the IPO.

Charles Zhang

Management

I want to add one point, just want to expand more. I think the although there is a new entrance, a new competitor enter the market for Search, actually it's really competition not about Search, it's really about the browser, if you have the larger higher browser market share then you have better entrant access and gateway for Search. But the browser market competition has been not just half a year, but has been several years that Sogou has been competing effectively with competitors. So we are very confident that we will continue to compete with our expanding Sogou Pinyin market share and also the Sogou browser's competitive advantage which mostly above its innovation and its superior technology. Jiong Shao – Macquarie Research: Thanks, Charles, for the additional comment. (Foreign Language)

Belinda Wang

Management

So typically if you are looking at our competitor Baidu of quarter-over-quarter for Q1 experienced about 10% sequential decline as well, so I think we are at par with the industry on this aspect. Jiong Shao – Macquarie Research: Okay, actually, I don’t think, they saw that kind of big decline, but anyway, okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Mark Marostica from Piper Jaffray. Please ask your question Mark Marostica – Piper Jaffray: Yes, thank you for taking my question. I want to go back to the comment on the increase of acquisition costs for contents for online video for 2013, and get a sense of your strategy as to where you intend to invest those incremental dollars. What areas in terms of online video content do you feel that you will look to invest in 2013?

Charles Zhang

Management

Well, we'll continue to, we already secured our, basically, since we have considered it our core products, which is our TV episodes. The TV episode includes both, domestic, I mean, Chinese TV episode and also American ones, and we've been able to secure very good flection. You can see our track record that we are back on right to the heart, the most popular. This is the traditional core content that we’ll be able add now, the only thing we need to improve and significantly is to really to do a very good marketing job for the best content, best TV shows and both in domestic and international, especially American TV episodes that is our focus. Of course, we also as variety shows, become ever popular on TVs we'll definitely to time our marketing with the TV shows time domestically. So one of the most popular one and significant and most noting is the Voice of China, which is envy of the industry that we got is right. And of course, besides the core TV episodes and drama section, and the variety of shows, the third-party is really the in-house production, which normally cost less, but if we have the right hit, then it could become very, very popular and can get the traffic as equivalent as a very popular TV drama. So it's just that we already have the very good content and now it's really how to market it to let the world know that we have this content, and when everyone coming to our site to view it and also to monetize it better. So… Mark Marostica – Piper Jaffray: Thanks for the color.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Wendy Huang from CIMB, please ask your question. Wendy Huang – CIMB Research: Thank you. My first question is regarding your non-game business. Based on my calculation the net loss for the non-game business was about $23 million and your guidance implied this loss to for the widen to $33 million in Q1. So, I wonder, if you can give some color on the loss breakdown between brand advertising and in also Sogou?

Belinda Wang

Management

Sogou will be a $2 million. Wendy Huang – CIMB Research: Okay. So, which business is actually resulting that widen loss in Q1 in your guidance?

Carol Yu

Management

Like what I said, it’s the increased bandwidth cost and the salaries cost across the board. Wendy Huang – CIMB Research: Okay. And also just a follow-up on your Sogou’s revenue guidance, so was that the Sogou’s revenue, is that Sogou’s revenue guidance has anything to do with Qihoo actually started monetization on their search engine in December, and also is Sogou still breakeven? Thank you.

Carol Yu

Management

I just mentioned Sogou is having a loss about $2 million, so we didn’t say that Sogou is breakeven. And as we explained, this is typical. The seasonality, accounts mainly for the drop of revenue from Q4 to Q1. We're still expecting a strong 2013 ahead of us in terms of our Sogou revenues. Wendy Huang – CIMB Research: Okay, thank you Carol.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jialong Shi from CLSA. Please ask your question. Jialong Shi – CLSA: Hi, good evening, thanks for taking my question. Could you kind of repeat for your brand advertising business, which sector sold the finest growth in 4Q and how is the trend for your order ads in 4Q and into 1Q? Do you expect a recovery in the ad spend by Japanese auto advertisers. Also just very quickly, could you give some colors on the amount of sub-licensing revenue and the related content cost in the past 4Q? Thank you.

Carol Yu

Management

Like what Belinda has said on the call, we previously expect a very soft quarter, from the auto industry in Q4, but we actually see non-Japanese cars making up for the loss that we expected for the Japanese cars. So that's what happened in Q4. And Q1 is a very typical quarter for the auto business, so we are expecting a downward trend in Q1 and then what's your other question? Jialong Shi – CLSA: Your video sub-licensing revenue in 4Q, and the related content costs?

Carol Yu

Management

The sub-licensing is about $1 million and content cost is relating to the sublicensing agreement is already included in our content costs on an overall basis. Jialong Shi – CLSA: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And next question comes from the line of Mi Zhou from UBS. Please ask your question. Mi Zhou – UBS: Thank you for taking my question. My question is about what is the status of your conversion from a time based pricing model to a CPM based model for your video advertising? I also want to know, what is the diluted shareholding in Sohu Video now? Thank you.

Carol Yu

Management

We have always been using the CPM model already, so there is no such as the conversion. The bulk of the advertising that we are selling today are on CPM basis, if it is pretty role. But obviously, we do have other advertising slots on our webpage which is still somewhat based on time. And up to now Sohu Video is other than a few percentage points giving out to employees, Sohu owns substantially all of the shares.

Operator

Operator

All right, thank you. We’ll move onto the next question and it comes from the line of Chi Tsang from HSBC. Please ask your question. Chi Tsang – HSBC: Good evening, thank for taking my question. I had a couple of questions. In terms of Sogou can you help us understand the traffic mix between desktop and mobile, and I am curious about sort of the mix and also sort of the growth rate, please, hello?

Carol Yu

Management

Yes.

Charles Zhang

Management

Yeah, we are here yeah. Chi Tsang – HSBC: Okay. (Foreign Language)

Carol Yu

Management

Okay. So we have seen a quite substantial growth as increasing speed in the traffic growth for the mobile front. And for, while compared to the PC front, it doesn't have the sizeable, I guess monetization base as of yet. I think currently, we are still focusing on working with our advertisers and then later on, we will come to the monetization part. Chi Tsang – HSBC: Can you say what percent of traffic does a mobile is in portal traffic and search?

Carol Yu

Management

Less than 10%. Chi Tsang – HSBC: Less than 10%. Okay, great. And my second question is, I am curious what your headcount was at the end of last year and what your expectations are for headcount growth for 2013. Thank you very much.

Carol Yu

Management

Are you talking about Sogou? Chi Tsang – HSBC: No, total group level?

Carol Yu

Management

Okay. We are right now about 5,000 people and we expect to be increasing by about 15% to 20% in 2013. Chi Tsang – HSBC: Thank you.

Carol Yu

Management

Ex-Changyou. Chi Tsang – HSBC: Understood.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Fei Fang, from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question. Fei Fang – Goldman Sachs: Hi, thanks for taking my question. Very quick on video, on the cost side, are you seeing rapid content cost inflation in the video content market on a per unit basis. And if so, is it driven by any particular competitor, and also who do you view as some of the most aggressive content buyer in the marketplace? Thank you.

Carol Yu

Management

We are seeing an overall stabilization in the content prices, especially compared with the escalation that we sold in 2012. Obviously, there will be some top notch content launched, which is sought after by all players and those prices will be on a very extraordinary basis be still a pretty premium prices. And then for aggressive buyers I think for these very premium content, everybody will be aggressive buyers, so I will think one or two companies. Fei Fang – Goldman Sachs: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That's all the time we have for questions. Thank you for joining and I would now like to hand the conference back to Tip Fleming of Christensen. Thank you.

Tip Fleming

Management

Thank you everyone for joining our call today. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact us or the Company directly. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.