Rodger Fuller
Analyst · Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, George, it's Rodger. I'll try to give you some color and if you have a follow-up to that, fine. But yeah, achieving core volumes, especially in North America, have been pretty good the last two quarters, up a couple of percent in the third quarter. It's just been uneven. And that's what we've seen really across the board, even in the paper side of our business. You feel like you're really seeing some volume push up, and then it softens up. But if you look at the third quarter specifically, paper mill cores and film cores were both strong on a year-over-year basis, which we feel like is driven by consumer spend and retail on food and other types of products. On the other side, textiles, protective packaging, light goods very weak, and that's something we've seen in the last couple of quarters. So it kind of bounces from quarter-to-quarter. If you look at the fourth quarter, we expect it to be basically flat in North America. The real weakness that we're seeing in driving that global industrial number down is outside the U.S. Asia very, very slow in both paper and tube and core, even ex the work we're doing to exit China and Industrial, the rest of the Asian market very slow. Europe, a lot more competitive on the boxboard side, on the tube and core side, and we've seen weakness there. We've exited the Greece markets, so we're doing our best to get out of nonprofitable operations. But all in all, pretty uneven and that's why we're calling it flat next year because you just don't see any sustainable trends as you look forward. On the URB side, capacity in the third quarter for us was still pretty strong in North America, about 94%. Globally, about 89%, because we were driven down by Europe and Asia. We expect that to come down some in the fourth quarter, simply because of the holidays pretty normal in the high 80s, probably. But yes, we're not -- again, we get the question all the time, boxboard imports or URB imports, we see a little bit of that. We don't see anything that's changed substantially. But we're seeing the same thing in our paper markets. Tissue and tile was strong in the third quarter. It seems to be slowing some in the fourth quarter probably just inventory adjustments. So it's -- the reason we're saying flat next year because there's just no sustainable trends that are really tied to on a multi-quarter basis.