SOUHY (SOUHY) Q4 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the South32 2026 Full Year Results Investor and Analyst Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's call will begin with opening remarks from South32 CEO, Matt Daley, followed by Q&A. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand over to Matt Daley, CEO. Please go ahead.

Thanks, [ Kaley ], and hello, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we discuss our financial results for FY '26. On the call today with me is Sandy, our Chief Financial Officer. It's a really exciting time for our business with our positive operating performance and repositioning to base metals driving strong financial results. There's a clear pathway to substantial value-accretive growth in copper and zinc with 55% production growth expected from projects under construction or approved and a pipeline of growth and life extension options beyond this that can drive further value and returns for our shareholders. Before I run through our financial results, I just want to take a moment to speak about safety. The most important measure of our success as a company is the safety of our people. In FY '26, we didn't live up to the expectations that we set for ourselves. The death of our colleague, Simon Mukwarami, in an incident at Worsley Alumina in March 2026 had a really profound impact on everyone at South32, particularly our people at Worsley. Simon's family, friends, and colleagues remain in our thoughts. We have taken steps to further enhance awareness of Worsley's existing procedures and controls for working at heights, and we continue to look for opportunities to design tasks in a way that eliminates or reduces from-height risks. As South32 CEO, I'm unwavering in my commitment to a workplace free from fatalities. So turning to our financial results. Our base metals business drove strong earnings and cash flow with strong operating performance, enabling us to capture the benefit of commodity price tailwinds, while active cost management mitigated the impact of our industry-wide inflationary pressures. Group underlying EBITDA increased by 28% to $2.5 billion, and underlying earnings increased by 55% to $1 billion. Group cash flow from operations (sic) [ Group free cash flow ] increased by $352 million to $610 million after investing $700 million to grow future base metals production from Hermosa. Our balance sheet remained strong with net cash of $283 million after returning $327 million to shareholders during the period. Reflecting our strong financial performance and disciplined approach to capital allocation, the Board has today resolved to pay a fully franked ordinary dividend of $0.054 per share or $242 million in respect of the June 2026 half year. We've also extended our capital management program to September 2027, with $209 million remaining to be returned to shareholders. On the 1st of July, we announced the sale of our aluminium value chain assets to Alcoa for an enterprise value up to $5.6 billion, plus the assumption of related rehabilitation provisions of over $1 billion. The transaction will unlock significant value for shareholders and reposition South32 as the leading base metals company on the ASX. We have high-margin assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions, a transformational growth pipeline, and a strong balance sheet to deliver this growth and shareholder returns. We're working with Alcoa and other stakeholders to satisfy the conditions for the transaction with expected completion in the second half of FY '27. Looking forward to FY '27, we're progressing a pipeline of projects under construction, approved, and in study phases that are expected to substantially grow our base metals production. At Sierra Gorda, this week, we announced a 61% increase in the Ore Reserve to 1.1 billion tonnes, an extension of the initial reserve life by approximately 5 years to 19 years, which just highlights the scale, the quality, and the long-life ore body at Sierra Gorda, which is still open at depth. Sierra Gorda is expected to deliver production growth of 5% in FY '27 and a further 2% in FY '28, supported by higher planned copper grades. Beyond this, the recently approved fourth grinding line project is expected to increase production by approximately 30% from 2031. At Cannington, we've upgraded expected ore processed with the inclusion of our low-grade stockpile material to utilize available plant capacity. Life extension work from both underground and open pit sources is continuing, with the open pit development option offering the potential for further ore feed and life extension of the complex. At Hermosa, we are focused on delivering our large-scale, long-life Taylor zinc-lead-silver project. Sinking of the ventilation shaft is advancing really well and in line with our recent project update, and key processing infrastructure such as the primary and secondary mills, the flotation cells have now all been installed. Once completed, Taylor is expected to deliver attractive financial returns for decades to come and support further growth phases at Hermosa. This includes Peake, where exploration and study work is continuing to support the potential for future copper production with an integrated development with Taylor. We're also progressing an exciting portfolio of exploration options in base metals. Ambler Metals boasts district-scale exploration potential in Alaska's unexplored and highly prospective Ambler mining district, where our summer field work season is currently underway following progress on permitting and stakeholder support for the Ambler Access Road. This really paves the way to unlock value from Ambler's high-grade copper and zinc options. So in closing, our operations are performing really well. We're generating strong cash flow to underpin our base metals growth and shareholder returns. The sale of the aluminium value chain business will reposition South32 as a simpler, higher-margin business with a strong balance sheet and peer-leading growth, making South32 a leading base metals exposure for investors. I'm going to pause there and happy to take any questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Ian Rossouw with Barclays.

First question, just on Hermosa, obviously, with the sort of CapEx and time line reset you've announced earlier this year. Just curious to hear how that project is progressing, specifically on the, I guess, cycle times from the contractor's shaft sinking. And I guess just how you're tracking to the sort of budgets and how much of the contingency if there has been any sort of consumption of that? Just keen to get an update on that, please.

Yes. Thanks, Ian. Thanks for the question, and good to hear from you. So Hermosa is progressing really well. The shafts are on track with our updated schedule. We are getting very close to the bottom of the ventilation shaft. And in the next couple of months, it will be at shaft bottom and the main shaft is actually tracking the vent shaft now really well as well. Decline extension into Taylor ore body is progressing to plan. And of course, that allows us that early access to ore that's really important. And as I mentioned in my opening comments, the surface infrastructure is all coming out of the ground well. Mills are in place, float cells are now in place and substations, which is really important in the context of the build-out of infrastructure in the U.S. 5 out of the 6 substations are now installed, including the major substation allows us to bring primary grid power into the project. In terms of contingency, it's still all intact as we stand here today. It's only been 3 or 4 months since the project update, but very comfortable, happy to say that it's all intact and very much looking forward to taking yourself, Ian, and others of our investors and shareholders on a site tour in September, where we can show you all the great progress that we've been making.

Great. And then just a follow-up on Cannington. Obviously, you've talked on the overnight call about the low-grade stockpiles at Cannington. And could you maybe just give us a sense of what's the differential in the grade of the stockpiles versus what you mine to get a sense and just how we should think about the proportions as you -- I guess, you mentioned sort of trying to push above the 2.1 over the medium term and how that proportion from the stockpiles will change?

Yes. Thanks, Ian. So we did around 200,000 tonnes of low-grade stockpiles through the plant last year. We really saw that as a test. And some of the key things we were checking for is how recoveries were through the plant and how we interacted with our paste fill system. So we built confidence through that test work. It gave us confidence to, again, put that into this year's guidance. It's performing really well. We potentially have some upside. As we've talked around in the past, we have a plant there that's done historically up to 3 million tonnes. We've got a guide of around 2.1 million. So there is some potential to push more through, and we'll continue to update the market as we progress. In terms of the grades, the ratio is probably about 2 to 2.5:1. So the grade is quite variable given it a historical stockpile. So preferentially, we're always going to put the underground material through the plant. But where we have opportunities, this is -- it's already been mined. It's already been paid for, sitting very close to the existing crusher. So it's just the cost to transport it and then push it through the mill. So that's how we're thinking about it for this year.

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Matthew Daley for closing remarks. Pardon me, we do have a question from Tim Clark with SBG Securities.

Just 1 or 2 quick questions from me. Just first of all, on the new capital allocation framework. I just -- I suppose I was interested to understand how franking credits and the transformation of the portfolio comes into the thinking on growth and dividends. So perhaps just maybe if we can get some -- a little bit of color on that, Sandy, it would be really helpful. And then just a second one, have you given us the amount of cash that's sitting in the lockbox as we run towards the end of this deal? Sorry, I might have missed it in the details, and I didn't see it in the main announcement. Have you given us that lockbox number?

Yes. I might answer the second part of that first, which is we have provided an update on the lockbox at 30 June, and that was around $100 million that's sitting in the lockbox representing that deal value through to 30 June. The third part of the question, I think then just relating to the capital management framework. So the current capital management framework will remain on foot until deal completion. So you will see a 40% payout of our underlying earnings, which includes those earnings from the aluminium value chain right through until completion. So that's perhaps just the first point to make. And then post-completion, we'll look at that transition on the capital management framework. Of course, you can hear from the conversations in the presentation, we are shifting the capital management framework to be more in line with the business we'll be on the other side of the transaction, with a bigger focus on growth going forward. Certainly still maintaining safe and reliable operations, capital, a strong balance sheet, but you will see our committed growth projects sitting next to the stack. So that's Taylor, fourth grinding line for now, and then more opportunities as they mature. And then really seeing that competition for excess capital sitting above that, including dividends, acquisitions, and other shareholder returns. So really seeing the shift in the capital management framework in line with the shift in our underlying business. As to the dividends and franking credit balance, we certainly recognize the value of dividends and of course, franking credits to the Australian investors in particular. We do have a $1.6 billion balance there on franking credits. Some of that will be distributed as part of the upfront distribution of Alcoa stock, which we'll be doing by way of an in-specie distribution of half of that fully franked. And so that will be one way in which we'll be distributing that and obviously, shareholders taking value from that. Of course, future dividends, we'd look to frank as appropriate going forward as well.

Okay. Super. Just while I've got the mic, if there aren't other questions. May I just ask on GEMCO on Groote Eylandt, just the -- a little bit of color, if you could give us to us on water, just in terms of dewatering and what you need to do to achieve that, what the sort of parameters are to advance some of that dewatering. And then maybe if we could just sort of ask on life there, presumably, the reserves are sort of finalized now going into the year-end. And just how much life there is that's fairly easy to get out of some of the leases? What we should -- what you would be modeling if you were us on life of mine with existing capital installed?

Yes. Thanks, Tim. Good question. So the operations up there have actually started pretty well this financial year, but we are in the dry season, and it's important to recognize that. And we've guided a range because of the uncertainty that sits around water and weather coming into the next wet season. So we've had a couple of years of cyclones and very high rainfall that certainly limited access to mining areas. So in response to this right now, we're working with both the NT Government and traditional owners to get a number of different permits in place to allow us to discharge larger volumes of water through a number of different mechanisms that will -- and we'll continue to update on a quarterly basis how this is progressing. The kind of capital works we're looking at doing is mainly around additional pipe installations that allows us to move volume from different parts of the operating lease. The NT Government has been giving us great support, but the reality is that some of these processes do take time, and hence, we've got that range in our guidance. In terms of the life of mine, at the moment, we have a life of mine of about 6 years out to 2033 at the current mining rates. There is potential, and the team is looking at that potential right now actually in terms of the northern leases and options to the East and South. The north requires us to do some early exploration work. It's a very shallow ore body. So it's not like exploration work in a big copper mine. That said, at the moment, our life of mine is just modeled out to 2033.

Your next question is from Ian Rossouw with Barclays.

I just wanted to follow up on a question from Tim. Sandy, you mentioned the lockbox contains about $100 million. I was just curious, Alcoa was saying on their Q2 conference call, they were estimating it to be over $200 million. So just curious what could be the cause for that delta?

Yes. I mean, we're obviously going to have access to their modeling, but I would suggest it could just be to do with the tax overlay on the profits from Hillside would be something that would be akin to that value difference there, Ian.

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Matthew Daley for closing remarks.

Thank you, Kaley. I just want to thank everyone for joining the call today and for all the questions. We're really pleased with our results for FY '26. FY '27 is off to a good start, and we're taking that momentum from last year into this year as we really focus on delivery from our existing operations and then a really exciting growth portfolio across Hermosa, Sierra Gorda, and life extension at Cannington. So thanks again for everyone for joining. We'll leave it there.

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.