Douglas L. Peterson
Management
So, this is Doug. Just in terms of the mix that we've seen over the last year, as you saw on the slides, and all of you know because you track it very carefully, issuance has been – the story of issuance has been very mixed this year. And as you know, total global issuance was down 20% in the third quarter with different puts and takes in terms of how they came out. So far, October started off very weak. It was a weak month with issuance. So, we're cautious about the fourth quarter overall. There were some large issuance related to M&A as well as some, what I call, synthetic repatriations where corporations have a lot of offshore cash they don't bring back, but they do borrow domestically. In the last week or so we saw Microsoft, ACE. There's continued to be a robust pipeline of municipal and public finance issuers, like Texas and Florida. So, we're not projecting anything right now. It's hard to see. Some of the same conditions which made the third quarter very volatile, like the questions about what's going to happen to the U.S. interest rate; when is Yellen going to increase interest rates; what kind of impact that's going to have, what are some of the emerging markets' volatility factors, China, Brazil, et cetera; what's happening with the banking market? There's a new initiative which was released last week from the Fed for U.S. banks about resolution and recovery planning, which has new guidance about TLAC. In addition, in Europe, they're looking at TLAC, which is the total loss-absorbing capacity of the large financial institutions. Depending on where that comes out, that might drive more issuance. But we're looking at a lot of different factors. I don't want to give you a forecast, but I'd tell you that we're seeing – we saw a slow start to October, a very robust end of October. But generally speaking, in the fourth quarter, we are going to be watching interest rates, inflation numbers, TLAC, China, Europe, et cetera; and we're cautious.