Earnings Labs

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (SPWH)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 17, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Sportsman's Warehouse Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode and a question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Ms. Rachel Schacter of ICR. Thank you, Rachel. Please go ahead.

Rachel Schacter

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. With me on the call is John Schaefer, President and Chief Executive Officer and Kevan Talbot, Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, I would like to remind you of the company's Safe Harbor language. The statements we make today will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which include statements regarding our expectations about our future results of operations, demand for our products and growth of our industry. Actual future results may differ materially from those suggested in such statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those described in the company's most recent 10-K filed with the SEC on March 24, 2016. We will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. Definitions of such non-GAAP measures as well as reconciliations to the most directly GAAP financial measures are provided as supplemental financial information in our press release, included as Exhibit 99.1 to the Form 8-K we furnished to the SEC today, which is also available on the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.sportsmanswarehouse.com. Now, I would like to turn the call over to John Schaefer, President and Chief Executive Officer of Sportsman's Warehouse.

John Schaefer

Analyst

Thank you, Rachel. Good afternoon everyone and thank you for joining us today. I will begin by reviewing the highlights of our third quarter performance and then discuss our progress on our strategic initiatives and thoughts on the remainder of the fiscal year. Kevan will then go over our financial results in more detail and review our outlook, after which we will open up the call to your questions. We are pleased with our third quarter results that finished within our guidance range on sales, same-store sales and earnings per share. We believe our unique localization strategy, efficient business model and disciplined execution allowed us to continue to outperform our peers in the third quarter and strengthen our position as the high growth retailer in the outdoor sporting goods segment of the retail marketplace. In Q3 we once again demonstrated the consistency of our financial performance as we met each of our financial targets for the quarter while maintaining and in some cases improving category level gross margins. This was against an industry backdrop that remained very promotional at both the national and the local level. The fact that we yet again successfully maintained a disciplined promotional calendar with no sales or traffic degradation despite the promotional stance of others in the industry illustrates the inherent customer appeal of our differentiated concept with our focus on having the right product in the right place at the right time and our everyday low price merchandising strategy. This accompanied by our characteristic expense discipline has consistently enabled us to meet our new store ROIC objectives and overall earnings guidance. Looking at our topline drivers more closely, the most recent NICS data reflected the continued increased demand for firearms, especially in the states in which we operate. We are able to outperform this…

Kevan Talbot

Analyst

Thanks, John. Good afternoon everyone. I will begin my remarks with the review of our third-quarter results and then discuss our outlook for the remainder of fiscal year 2016. My comments today will focus on adjusted results; we have provided these results as well as an explanation of each line item and reconciliation to GAAP net income and earnings per share in our earnings press release which was issued earlier today. We are pleased with our third quarter 2016 result. Net sales increased 13% to $217.2 million from $192.1 million in the third quarter of last year with a 17.2% increase in the number of stores and the same-store sales increase of 2.1%. Our third quarter revenue was driven by strong performance in four of our six major categories, namely our hunting and shooting, clothing, footwear and fishing categories. We continue to be excited about our opportunity to grow our store base in both new and existing markets. During the third quarter, we opened the remaining five of our 11 planned store locations for our 2016 class of stores and now operate 75 stores in 20 states. We remain committed to growing our store base and capitalizing on the significant wide space opportunity we see available to us. We have now announced seven store locations in our 2017 class of stores, three of which we announced today which John previously mentioned. We expect to announce additional 2017 store locations in the near future. Turning to our same-store sales by each of our three-store groupings which are, one base stores; two, new stores or acquired stores that have been in the comp base for two years or less; and three, stores that were subject to competitive openings which we defined as a new competitive entrant into a market within the past…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentleman, at this time we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Peter Benedict with Robert Baird. Please go ahead sir.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Hi guys, couple of questions. First, if you're willing to just a quick discussion around trends, may be that you saw around the election, I mean obviously it's been of all a couple of weeks here, but any kind of color on that? And staying with the political side of things, any State legislation that has passed recently that we need to be aware of, we saw some stuff in California potentially just want to make sure we're understanding that all correctly?

John Schaefer

Analyst

Sure. In the – as we've said in the past in previous election years 2008, 2012, if there was going to be a surge in firearms it came a day or two before the election. This year we saw a modest increase in activity before the election that started about a week before the election and that has continued post-election. Now the thing to understand, I think is with a Republican-controlled Congress and a Republican President, the thing that worried us before was a Democratic President and a Democratic Senate meeting that you would end up with the Democratic nominee for Supreme Court and the potential for the Heller versus Washington DC to be overturned, that is not going to happen. In fact done legislation is probably at the Federal level, we got to go down. But really the pass-on, on the Presidential Elections have always been short term hits. In 2012 we had some unfortunate events at Sandy Hook that really prolonged the surge at that timeframe not really the Presidential Election. So really the stuff that is going on is that the state as you're asking and what we see going on in the states is really kind of happening in California, the biggest thing happening in California is the requirement to have ammunition purchased with a background check. That actually is a big benefit to us as a Brick-and-Mortar retailer as it virtually eliminates the purchasing of ammunition online by residents of the State of California. And as you know, we have a bunch of stores in California who are opening more stores in California, so I think that ends up being a net positive. There really hasn't been a whole lot of other legislation that has any impact, a couple of states have passed legislation about private party transfers having to be done at a Federal firearms license dealer, but those are not requirements of us to do that. And as we've talked in previous year, Colorado passed a similar law, we're not required to service those private party transfers and we have chosen not to and there are a bunch of risks associated with doing such. And then the states that passed that it is basically the same as Colorado, so they really don't –that really doesn't have much of an impact on us. So it's really just the main ones of the ammunition in California.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Perfect. Thanks for that John. And just on the competitive headwinds, it sounds like it was probably the DICK's Field & Stream combo store, I think that opened earlier, how do you guys think about the competitive headwind now for the fourth quarter? I think before you were thinking, it might have been less than 100 basis points, but given that this opened earlier maybe that is going to be higher and then how you're thinking about it next year can you give us a sense of how you see this flowing?

John Schaefer

Analyst

No you're exactly right, Peter. We do expect the competitive headwinds to be higher in the fourth quarter as a result of this early opening. However, come next year in the fourth quarter, we expect to see the benefit of that as that new store approaches the tail of that competitive curve. So currently our thoughts are is that, we're going to be somewhere in the 120 to 130 basis points competitive headwind in the fourth quarter. But that's it's higher than what we had hoped for, but ultimately next fourth quarter, it will come back to benefit us.

Kevan Talbot

Analyst

And it starts to flow down as we get into the Q1 and Q2 of next year as we hit - more stores hit that 18-month mark.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Sure. Absolutely makes sense. Was the response in your store to the Field & Stream stores similar to what you see when you have a Cabela's or Bass Pro?

John Schaefer

Analyst

Actually not, it was more or like what we see to a Cabela's outpost.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Okay, makes sense. Last question oil and gas markets, I think you spoke to some impacts in the past on that, I didn’t hear it in the remarks, can you give us a sense for maybe what those markets did in the third quarter? Thanks.

John Schaefer

Analyst

The oil headwinds for the eighth or excuse me the sixth competitive store or oil stores that were there in the second quarter decreased 80 basis points, so sequentially they came down from headwind perspective. So we will continue to monitor those oil headwinds but for those Apples to Apples stores, they are coming down.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Okay, thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Seth Sigman with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Seth Sigman

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Thanks, good afternoon. Nice quarter guys.

John Schaefer

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Thanks.

Seth Sigman

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Just following up on one of the prior questions, John in the past you've talked about the normalized rate for firearms sales growth in the high single digit range, does the outcome of the election change that view at all?

John Schaefer

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

No it really hasn't and one of the things when I mentioned in the subcategories of long rifles, we're seeing some really strong performance in the bolt-action rifles which really tells us that the interest in hunting is actually growing we're seeing, you know we've seen, for the past couple of years the increase in shooting sports with handguns and shooting ranges in metropolitan areas and long-range target shooting. We’ve always said that 5% to 8% normalized growth which is kind like a five-year CAGR on that. We've been actually a little stronger than that post election. So I think were in a situation where the shooting sports are becoming very popular. Those, all those people that joined became first time purchasers in 2012 and into 2013, it is clear those people are really now buying their second, third and fourth firearm as they get comfortable with the techniques of shooting both a handgun and a long rifle and become interested in the different types of calibers of rifles, the different types of make ups of rifles whether it be a bolt-action rifle or a modern sporting rifle. So, they are starting to act like longer-term buyers in the shooting sports and I think that bodes really well for the industry on a go forward basis, just as, just from an organic growth standpoint.

Seth Sigman

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Okay, thanks. And then on the competitive front, I'm just wondering have you seen any changes as a result of the announced merger just yet, maybe anything in terms of store plans or I guess maybe how is it changing your dialogue with vendors at this point?

John Schaefer

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Well our dialogue with vendors is always been excellent so, I don't know that it's, it's really changing a whole lot although. We'll see how that moves as we go into parts of next year where you would normally have more dialogue with vendors. I mean the chart shows in January so there's not a lot of talk going on now with vendors. We’ve seen the two companies that are playing and emerge continue to operate independently and you can see that, all you have to do is set one of their advertising inserts one right next to the other and you will see the vast difference in how they are strategically approaching the Christmas season, both in terms of where they put product, one company is putting firearms not until page 20, other handling ammunition, one has it at 11.99, the other has it at 6.99. They are acting pretty much as independent companies which I think is probably the prudent thing to do until they get this process completed. From a competitive opening standpoint, we certainly haven't heard of anything new. We have heard rumblings although, I wouldn't say they've been, we have been able to verify all of them, but we've heard rumblings from the real estate community about delays and certain things like that, but that's not a lot different than you hear all the time.

Seth Sigman

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Okay and then just on current trends it sounds like you're pleased with where the business is now. So if I look at the guidance the comps down one to up one, if you strip out, I guess the pull forward from a year ago the $5 million, it would still point to comps in the 2.5% range in the fourth quarter. So, pretty much in line with where you've been tracking the last couple of quarters, just wanted to clarify that you're not really seeing any major change in underlying trends.

John Schaefer

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

I think we’re pretty happy with the way the entire year has gone. It's been pretty steady. It's been pretty much as we expected. We’re now lapping the weather. The weather is not great, but it wasn't great in the fourth quarter last year. So, I don't think that there's, I think the steady pace of what we've been seeing the last few quarters we have no reason to see that it will change in any material way going forward.

Seth Sigman

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Okay, great. Thanks very much.

John Schaefer

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Sure.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Daniel Hofkin with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Daniel Hofkin

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon guys. Just maybe a little bit of clarification, I may have missed this earlier, but within the quarterly results obviously kind of sort of Bauer and of the comp plan could you discuss any areas that might have been a little softer than you had expected and then conversely anything that might have been stronger just within the different categories? And then I have a followup.

Kevan Talbot

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead.

John called out in his remarks, obviously we’re very pleased in our soft goods categories, both clothing and footwear and we were cautiously optimistic that they would turn positive and we did although the third quarter was warmer, we did have a few spots of weather that were right prior to the hunts that really helped us in use categories as we've referred to in the past. One of the disappointing categories for us was in the optics and electronics department. We're seeing a lot of price cuts in that we're selling I think roughly the same number of units if not a little bit down particularly with respect to electronics. There has just not been a lot of innovation there and the prices are coming down as natural in a product evolution cycle. So that is hurting us from a optics electronics and accessories department, that really has been the one underperforming department. Our camping department which was also negative was just slightly negative, again on a two-year stack basis is a very strong category for us. So, we’re not disappointed there, although we had hoped that, that would turn positive in the third quarter. Those were the two primary factors there kind of weighing down the comp from that perspective.

Daniel Hofkin

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead.

Okay and then with regard to the kind of the components of the comp were transact and kind of distinguishing between traffic, for traffic and transactions were transactions themselves positive was it all average ticket?

John Schaefer

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead.

I don't have that data right in front of me, so I'll have to follow up with you on that went Dan.

Daniel Hofkin

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead.

Okay and then I guess just, thinking beyond the fourth quarter by the same token, the first quarter of next year comparison eases for the same reason that it is tough in the fourth quarter. Is there anything else just from a kind of a flow into next year that we should be aware of or what your comment before about the comp, underlying comp outlook have been pretty steady, but is there anything else from a comparison standpoint moving through the year that we ought to be aware of?

John Schaefer

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead.

We’ll address those specific events as we provide our 2017 guidance on our next earnings call. So as of right now we're not prepared to talk about those items, but we will do so at the appropriate time.

Daniel Hofkin

Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead.

Okay, thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Andrew Burns with DA Davidson. Please go ahead.

Andrew Burns

Analyst · DA Davidson. Please go ahead.

Thanks and congrats on the solid year-to-date performance. During the prepared remarks you mentioned the marketing initiatives in the fourth quarter. I didn’t know if there was just a shift in timing of an annual promotion or if there was incremental spend because we saw an opportunity in the marketplace?

John Schaefer

Analyst · DA Davidson. Please go ahead.

It was a slight incremental spend. I mean we promote constantly from Thanksgiving through Christmas everybody does. We had an insert last year that we wanted to last for 10 days and 10 days is just too long for an insert at this time of the year. So we added another insert in that time period. So, we’re promoting through the same length of time. We’ve just added a little bit more freshness to keep the newness and the freshness healthier and a little more attractive and hopefully it will obviously do that to disburse some incremental sales as these inserts go through their normal evolution.

Andrew Burns

Analyst · DA Davidson. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Weather was clearly not a benefit in the quarter that there was easy comparisons relative to last season, did the season's weather have a negative impact on hunting category performance and do we need to see a big improvement in weather for you to be able to clear out softer as you move through the fourth quarter?

John Schaefer

Analyst · DA Davidson. Please go ahead.

No, I don't think we need to, I think our inventory level in clothing and footwear especially in the hunting categories is solid. We’ve seen some good growth in hunting as we noted with the bolt action rifles doing well in the firearms category. There are plenty of participants. It's a little, there's something, we could use a couple of weeks of cold weather. I mean it’s a little hard to sell packed foods when it is 80 degrees. But people are I don’t think we’re going to be over inventory. You know the last year in the fourth quarter we ran out of product mid-December. We didn't overbuy this year, assuming that we had to make up for that and for a cold winter as I said back in the first quarter when we were talking about the rest of the year I said that we are buying for the fourth quarter based on really no weather change but making sure we have enough inventory go through a selling cycle that includes, both the Christmas selling season, the after Christmas selling season, and then the clearance sales that you normally have as a retailer in January. We bought to that and I think that's where we're sitting right now, so I don’t see any issues with it.

Andrew Burns

Analyst · DA Davidson. Please go ahead.

Thanks and good luck.

John Schaefer

Analyst · DA Davidson. Please go ahead.

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Tanal with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Stephen Tanal

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hey good afternoon guys. Thanks for the questions. I guess if you think a little bit longer-term about how the story is evolving, certainly I appreciate the choppiness of the category kind of quarter-to-quarter, but what is in your mind at this point sort of a fair assumption for kind of a normal annual same-store sales growth rate that is achievable here going forward?

John Schaefer

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

We've always believed that again as you've indicated stripping out the choppiness, we believe we can achieve long-term steady-state same-store sales on a store basis of 2% to 3% at maturity. We typically see a 1.5% – 1% to 1.5% price increase from our vendors that are passed along to us each year and then that combined with other things that we do inside the store, other new products as well as remerchandising or other things that we make to improve the experience for our customers, we believe we can achieve that other amount to get us to that 2% to 3%.

Stephen Tanal

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

That's helpful and thinking about SG&A, I know you had kind of given us the head-drop there'll be a little bit of investment activity in the back half, I think on a per square foot basis or per store kind of normalized on that basis, it's still at the little more than we modelled, is there another acceleration here in 4Q or was this the pick-up and this is kind of the trend rate that we carry forward?

John Schaefer

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

As we've looked at the investments that we've been talking to all year long, that really, the plan is for that to be the third and the fourth quarter, so we're continuing – we're continuing on with our plans, with these investments and that will be through the fourth quarter as we talked about before, we do expect to leverage these expenses in 2017. But we will talk specifically about that again as we provide our annual guidance at the next earnings release.

Stephen Tanal

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Got it. Just to be clear like a similar trend rate 3Q to 4Q there is no incremental pickup per se?

John Schaefer

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

No, no. That would be correct.

Stephen Tanal

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Got it. So then lastly from me, inventory looks maybe a little bit elevated, I know your competitor had mentioned potentially stocking up on firearms in event of any sort of a spike or just generally better demand around the election, is that a similar dynamic or can you comment on what the inventory is, I guess you're also cycling a pretty lean period on apparel, but any color there would be helpful and that's it from me?

John Schaefer

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

We increased the inventory in the firearms category. It wasn't specifically because of a potential surge or anything. But we saw continued strength as we went through the year, we had some opportunities to buy ahead which we took advantage of and now we are going through the normal sell-through process that's about as we expected with these firearms. So we – at least we anticipated an increased inventory going into Q4 which will result in a normal sell-through we see going through Q4 and into next year. So it wasn't any type of special stocking up, although we are certainly compared with backup orders to stock up had there been a dramatic surge pre or post election.

Stephen Tanal

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Now our next question comes from the line of Peter Keith with Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

Peter Keith

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

Hi, thank you and good afternoon everyone. Just a little bit nuance on the guidance, but I hope you could give us some color just on how the full year was adjusted, it looks like the bottom end was taken up a penny and the top end was taken down by two pennies, was there anything that transpired in Q3 or something up in Q4 that has changed your outlook maybe a little bit for the worse?

John Schaefer

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

No there hasn’t. Really that is just a narrowing of the range as a result of our activity there. As I drilled into to that activity, I think there might be a penny of rounding from the fourth quarter there, but really it's the same, it's the same exact guidance that we had planned on for the fourth quarter when we provided annual guidance last quarter.

Peter Keith

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

Okay, that's great to hear. And sort of beating a dead horse here, but on the firearms dynamics, so the stock market has determined that your business some of the manufacturers would see a slowing of sales here post elections. But I guess what you are saying is that you're not seeing anything thus far and looking out maybe in the long term it is actually a better, just want to may be put those words in your mouth, is that correct?

John Schaefer

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

Well, yes, as I said, we saw a small surge a little bit before the election, nothing like 2012 and postelection as we said in our prepared remarks while our sales continued strong there is a growing number, the thing that's absolutely evident to us is there are a whole lot of people that are participating in the shooting sports, a whole lot more people than there were before. Can we quantify it? No, but we do know that 20% of the surge in 2012 and 2013 was first-time buyers and we are now seeing those people joining our loyalty program. We are seeing those people coming in and buying their first long gun as well as their second handgun. So I think the strength of the industry is here to stay. I think the CAGR of 5 to 8% is certainly achievable going forward. And I think what you have is you have a federal government with laws that are really kind of a nonfactor and frankly the party of the President really has never been a long-term factor in the firearms industry. And as you noted in the San Bernardino effect of last year was simply a pull forward and it was only a pull forward because President Obama came out with a bunch of executive orders which scared a lot of people until they actually read them and realized that they didn't really mean much. So what you're really trying to look at when it comes to firearms is what's the new steady-state and I think the new steady-state is a pretty darn good number and we're seeing that strength as we go into the fourth quarter.

Peter Keith

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

Okay, good feedback I appreciate that John. Two other questions for Kevan then, first on the gross margin, there was a bit of a directional change from Q2 just checking my notes you guys had freight and vendor incentive benefit, what is the more realistic trend of gross margin is Q2 where you maybe some increase or Q3 where may be there is constant mix headwind going forward?

Kevan Talbot

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

A lot of it depends, as we discussed last quarter, the freight and the vendor incentives we were planning for the freight benefits to continue and we didn't see those materialize in the third quarter and the vendor incentives we really started to see that in Q3 of 2015. So while the vendor incentives have continued on an incremental basis year-over-year we did not see a lift as a percentage is an impact to our gross margin. So we do continue to expect our vendor incentives to continue. Our vendors are good partners with us and they continue to offer us incentives with their products that we take advantage of. Those plans are for them to continue, but incrementally there's not any lift over the prior year because those programs were in place a year ago.

Peter Keith

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

Okay and the mix dynamic in the quarter was that similar Q3 through Q2 or was there an increased mix headwind?

Kevan Talbot

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

No, the 40 basis point drop I think is my calculation showed 35% of it was product mix which was primarily the sales mixed shift to the firearms to strengthen the firearms and ammunition.

Peter Keith

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

Okay thanks. Lastly from me then my favorite question reporter that overtime rule was that the DOL kicking in December 1, you guys have determination on adjustment and how that might impact the expense structure if at all?

Kevan Talbot

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

Well, we made the adjustments this quarter. We've been very pleased with how they've been working. We did see some additional overtime, but it was not significant enough to call out. So as a result we don't expect any additional significant pressures as a result of that change.

Peter Keith

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

Okay, sounds good. Nice quarter and good luck in the fourth quarter.

Kevan Talbot

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Your line is live.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back over to management for any closing remarks.

John Schaefer

Analyst

Thank you for your time everyone and we will talk to your next quarter.