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Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (SPWH)

Q1 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, May 30, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Sportsman's Warehouse First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ms. Rachel Schacter of ICR. Thank you, you may begin.

Rachel Schacter

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. With me on the call is Jon Barker, Chief Executive Officer; and Robert Julian, Chief Financial Officer.Before we get started, I would like to remind you of the Company's safe harbor language. The statements we make today will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which includes statements regarding our expectations about our future results of operations, demand for our products and growth of our industry. Actual future results may differ materially from those suggested in such statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those described under the caption, Risk Factors, in the Company's 10-K for the year ended February 2, 2019, and the Company's other filings made with the SEC.We will also disclose non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. Definitions of such non-GAAP measures as well as reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided as supplemental financial information in our press release included as Exhibit 99.1 to the Form 8-K we furnished to the SEC today, which is also available on the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.sportsmanswarehouse.com.Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Jon Barker, Chief Executive Officer of Sportsman's Warehouse.

Jon Barker

Analyst

Thank you, Rachel. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today.I'll begin by reviewing the highlights of our first quarter performance and then discuss the progress on our strategic initiatives and thoughts on the coming fiscal year. Robert will then go over our financial results in more detail and review our outlook, after which we will open up the call to your questions.Our first quarter results were in line with expectations on the top line and $0.01 below expectations on bottom line. For the quarter, net sales declined 3.4% to $174 million. Comparable sales decreased 5.7%, which was modestly below our outlook, driven by weaker than expected firearm and ammunition sales, primarily due to a difficult event-driven year ago comparison.Gross margins were up 27 basis points for the quarter, due to favorable mix and rate variance, partially offset by higher transportation costs. Operating expenses increased $300,000 for the quarter, primarily driven by increased rent expense. We reported adjusted diluted loss per share of $0.12 for the quarter.Drilling down on the composition of our first quarter comparable sales results, firearm units across the Company performed better than the adjusted mixed data nationwide and within our states. This is reflective of our continued market share gains, as we strengthen our dominant positioning within the industry given our breadth of firearm offerings combined with unique value-added services that are driving further customer engagement.For the quarter, firearm units decreased 8.1% versus an 11% decline in the adjusted mixed data. Firearms and ammunition sales together decreased 14% in Q1 2019. This decline was primarily due to the difficult event-driven comparison for these categories in Q1 of last year.For our non-hunting categories, as expected, weather had a negative impact on our fishing and camping categories, with both decreasing 2.5%. Our soft good categories performed…

Robert Julian

Analyst

Thank you John and good morning everyone.Let me begin by saying how pleased I am to be on the call with you today. I'm very excited about joining the Sportsman's Warehouse organization. It's been a real pleasure getting to know the Sportsman’s team since coming on-board in mid-April from the corporate staff to our operations people to our retail sales associates. I look forward to working with John in the entire Sportsman's Warehouse team and contributing to our profitable growth and driving long-term shareholder value.Now, turning to the numbers. I'll begin my remarks with the review of our first quarter results and then discuss our outlook for the second quarter and fiscal year 2019. Most of the financial figures discussed on today's call are reported on a U.S. GAAP basis. In the instances where we report non-GAAP financial measures, we have reconciled the non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures in our earnings press release which was issued earlier today.First quarter 2019 net sales came in at $174 million compared to $180 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2018, a decline of $6 million or 3.4%. Same-store sales decreased 5.7% which was slightly under the low end of our expectations and guidance. The decline was primarily driven by weaker than expected firearm and ammunition sales due to difficult comparisons from event-driven actions taken by competitors in Q1 of last year.However, we did see nice year-over-year in our footwear and clothing categories as well as continued improvement in our e-commerce driven sales. We ended the quarter with 92 stores operating in 23 states. Total square footage growth was 2.9% this year versus the first quarter of fiscal year 2018. Q1 2019 gross profit was $54.2 million compared to $55.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2018, a…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Peter Keith with Piper Jaffray. Please proceed with your question.

Peter Keith

Analyst

Just want to dig into the slightly revised down guidance outlook and just understand what's driving that? Is that basically baking in kind of what happened with Q1 and/or I guess is it factoring any current trends or any changed your outlook looking at the Q2 to Q4. And I was hoping you could address that both from a sales and an expense standpoint.

JonBarker

Analyst

Yes Peter, it does certainly bake in what happened in Q1. As we mentioned earlier, we missed our revenue by about $6 million on the top end of our previous guide. We hit exactly the low end of the guide in revenue. So we did bake in that on the top end, we lowered our guidance for full-year by that same amount. We did have some results that were less than expected even in terms of margin in SG&A as a percent of revenue on the lower revenue, and so that is reflected in the full-year guidance.In terms of revenue, we did see a little bit of a slower start to the Q2 than we were hoping for, although it's picked up more recently. And so we have considered that as well in the Q2 guidance, and that just sort of rolls through the end of the year. Jon, I don't know if you want to add anything to that.

JonBarker

Analyst

I think that's accurate, Robert. On the EPS provision, Peter, we did lower that range, which reflects Q1 performance, but also some of the freight headwinds that we experienced in Q1 are likely to continue. We also are, like all retailers, very focused on this tariff uncertainty and how that may flow through. At this point, we don't have a clear understanding exactly what is going to happen with tariffs from a timing and the lift, working with our vendors, and we'll be negotiating to try to offset those increases. So there is some tariff uncertainty built into our EPS as part of this.

Peter Keith

Analyst

And I always hate to harp on weather, but it does seem like that's been a point of discussion with investors, because of some of the precipitation dynamics so far this year. So you guys have gone from most of your West stores from a very dry year last year to now very wet year, this year. Could you help us frame up how you're thinking about whether in terms of maybe helping or hurting your business, if we look to Q2, Q3?

JonBarker

Analyst

Great question, Peter. Weather, you're exactly right, last year, mid-summer was very challenging for the West with the drought and ultimately a series of fires through many of our states. This year we've started out with an extreme snowpack in most of the Rockies, you went through some of the Wasatch Front and it's continued through even today with rain and moisture.So, our start to camping and fishing, Memorial Day was off. The rivers, many of them are still blown out in most of the high camping areas of our under multiple feet of snow as we sit here today. We're still skiing in parts of parts of Utah, and I assume they're still skiing in Colorado.The next couple of weeks we'll be telling how that manifests itself for the rest of camping and fishing. Now, we're hopeful we'll return more normalized temperatures and a reduction to a normal amount of precipitation over the next couple of weeks is going to be important for us to get back on track with camping and fishing for the remainder of the year.

Peter Keith

Analyst

And one last question from me. So the inventory management was quite impressive at down 9% on a per store basis. Is that a trend that we should expect to continue or was there certainly something unique to Q1 particularly with some of the decline in comp dynamic?

Robert Julian

Analyst

Peter, we discussed a little bit in the fall of last year bringing on a new inventory planning leader. And he's done just a fantastic job of building the structure, the analytics and the rigor around our processes. And we expect to continue to have similar results in our inventory flow through the rest of this year, making sure that we balance our inventory turns with our in-stock and our fill rate. So we're very impressed by his performance so far and we believe there will be continued progress on that front for the remainder of 2019.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Hofkin with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

Daniel Hofkin

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

Just wanted to clarify the point regarding the first quarter and the comparison in firearms and ammo. Obviously, the comparison aspect of it was already known, so I'm just trying to understand a little bit when you say that the comps coming in below the low end of the plan, reflected the tough prior year comparison.Maybe you could explain that a little bit, or was there some aspect of this year's performance that was weaker in those categories and what drove that? Was that affected by some of the same weather things that affected camping, for example? And then kind of what are you seeing real time in terms of trends in your hunting and shooting business as we speak? That's my first question.

Robert Julian

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

Let me parse this out a little bit. On ammunition, the biggest driver of the comp down was actually in reloading and gun parts, which are the magazines, which had a very large growth in Q1 of last year, as there was discussion of regulation changes. That comp was greater than we expected. We missed a little - slightly on that comp around reloading and gun parts.On the firearms, we actually saw a little bit of a change in trend during April. We were in good shape to forecast in the last couple of weeks of April. We're a little farther down than we expected in actual firearm units. That was directly related to the comparison of 2018. We've seen that start to normalize the last couple of weeks.As I said on the last call, we expected kind of late May, early June to see a more normalized comp pattern, and that has started to flow through on the firearm side. Ammunition still continues to be a little down year-over-year. I think the consumer hasn't necessarily gotten back on track with their ammunition sales as quickly as we would have hoped. But firearms are starting to normalize.

JonBarker

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, I would say also just to answer your question directly. We would not attribute it to weather, and we would not attribute it to market share. In fact, you could, based on the next data, it suggests that we're gaining share. It was just a lower result on those comps than expected, I think, across the industry.

Daniel Hofkin

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

No, I was just trying to clarify the lower than expected part. Because the expectation seemingly would have had - you would have known what happened last year, but maybe there's some aspect of that that's tough to forecast off. But anyway, the other question was, as it relates to tariffs, maybe you could comment on what sort of an impact you've seen thus far from the 10% tariffs that have been in place for a while?And is it reasonable to think about some kind of multiplier effect on going from 10% to 25% on the same set of goods and if that were to broaden to potentially the other, the part of goods that are not currently tariff, what might that look like?

Robert Julian

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

The 10% tariff was contemplated and built into our expectations and our guidance and we haven't seen any change versus expectations in that regard. We've not seen any real impact currently in our results for the new tranche of tariffs or the increase from 10% to 25% based on inventory that's in the stores and what's on the water that might not have been impacted by that. If we were to see an impact, it would be in the second half of the year, and it's really unclear in terms of how that's going to impact us.We source very little goods directly from China, but indirectly many of our products in camping and fishing and other categories do come from China and have a potential to impact. And then John talked a little bit about the mitigating strategies that we're trying to apply. But at the moment, it's really hard to know what that overall impact might be in the second half of the year.Frankly, we're hoping that it gets resolved in a positive way that doesn't impact consumers at the end of the day. It also is – it's probably worth noting that these tariffs do not impact guns or ammunition, as most of those do not come out of China, they're coming out of the U.S. and Russia and other places. So, a large portion of our business will not be impacted by the tariffs at all.

Daniel Hofkin

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

And just to be clear, when you say - I guess I was thinking perhaps you had a sense for how much, even though it's been factored into your numbers and then to your expectations, what sort of the impact the 10% tariffs have had to date versus prior to when they went into effect?

Robert Julian

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, I'm not sure that it's been very significant. I think it's been relatively insignificant through actions taken by the suppliers and other mitigating strategies. I wouldn't say that it was a material impact so far.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Peter Benedict from Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Peter Benedict

Analyst · your question.

A quick one on just on the firearms and ammo discussion. Jon, you mentioned kind of more normalized trend setting in here, ammo still down a bit. Just curious how you guys are planning those categories within this guidance over the balance of the year? I mean, are positive comps implied for firearms in 2Q or in the second-half or how should we think about your approach there? That's my first question.

Jon Barker

Analyst · your question.

On the firearm side, we are assuming a slight increase on same-store [ per ] units and dollars on firearms, and flat to slightly down in ammunition for Q2 in the back-half.

Peter Benedict

Analyst · your question.

And was the 14% decline in firearms and ammo, was that a comp number for the first quarter?

Jon Barker

Analyst · your question.

Yes, comp number.

Peter Benedict

Analyst · your question.

Turning to the margin outlook, I mean, for 2Q the EBIT margin is implied down here. Just curious if you could tease out a little bit the gross margin view in the second quarter? It seems to be implied down a bit. Just what the pressure points are? How should we be thinking about gross margin? I'm assuming inventories are in very good shape.

Robert Julian

Analyst · your question.

Yes, so we saw a little bit of pressure on transportation costs in Q1 that we've sort of reflected in our guidance in the Q1 experience generally. I do think we're going to see a mix impact continue. We saw a little bit of product margin improvement in some of our categories, clothing and so on. But mostly the impact has been mix related and then some traits, pressures. Frankly, the inventory management also has some impact on margins in the short term as we clean that up. But that's generally what's built into the guidance for Q2 and the year.

Peter Benedict

Analyst · your question.

And in terms of SG&A, I mean the pace of growth, when you ex out some of the items, it seems to be growing maybe at a mid-single digit pace, call it 5%. Is that the way we should be thinking about the growth rate in SG&A here? I mean, I know there's a few items you've called out that have been part of the guidance but as we think about just the underlying growth in the expense structure is 5% to 6%, is that the right way to think about it or are there other factors that we need to think about as we look through the balance of the year?

Robert Julian

Analyst · your question.

Well, there's a bit of a step function increase in SG&A going from Q1 to Q2. And actually we did a really nice job of controlling cost in Q1. Very marginal increase in absolute dollars from prior year, despite wage increases and some benefit changes and so on.You do see a little bit of a step function increase in SG&A in our projection starting in Q2, and then it flattens out for the remainder of the year. And I wouldn't expect it to continue to grow. It's fairly consistent, the SG&A spend, across the last three quarters of the year.

Peter Benedict

Analyst · your question.

My last question just on this partnership with the dealers in non-Sportsman's markets I guess. Could you just give a little more color on maybe the scale of that? And I was a little unclear on the timing, but just maybe expand a little bit on that. It sounds like an interesting initiative here.

Jon Barker

Analyst · your question.

Peter, I really should have connected the dots. As we think about firearm units growing in the remainder of the year as a comp of both dollars and units, it includes the additional reach through the dealer network, as well as used firearms and the gunsmithing. All of that combined is included in our internal modeling on the growth.The website is already live. So, if you go to the website today, choose a firearm, put it in your cart or go to put in cart, you can choose a firearms dealer in your area. Now to be clear, that has just started in the last few weeks, so the network is not completely built out. We are going to be very specific about dealers we will let in our network. They will have to be reputable dealers that are storefronts, compliant, regulatory and outside the Sportsman's Warehouse reach, as partners not necessarily within the reach.But we have, call it, an additional 25% of U.S. population can now purchase our firearms and have it delivered to local dealers in 45 minutes of their home in the first few weeks. So over time, you'll see that expand to most areas of the 48 states.

Operator

Operator

Our final question comes from the line of Ronald Bookbinder with IFS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Ronald Bookbinder

Analyst

On the inventory, doing a terrific job of bringing that down and driving cash flow out of it. But are there any certain areas that it's especially down in? And is the reduction in inventory also benefiting from your sort of shift to include drop shipping?

Jon Barker

Analyst

There's a combination of things working together here, Ron. The drop-ship component on firearms absolutely is helpful. The buy online pick-up and store component of the new e-com platform is immensely helpful. Because now someone in any, and again using Slidell, walk into the Slidell store, Ron, you can't find the particular caliber you're looking for, very good chance that we have it in one of our 93 stores.The systems are now allowing us to fulfill your needs in Slidell from any one of those 93 stores with the existing inventory. Where in the past we might have had to special order that item for you, going against our inventory turns. So those categories especially around firearms, the buy online pick-up in store is helping with our inventory turns and reduction.When it comes to other areas, I think apparel is a place that we will continue to be focused as an organization on ensuring that our assortment strategies are accurate for the local markets that we’re within and that we have good plans to move through that inventory seasonally and keep our health of that inventory up. So, apparel is the area that we're heavily focused on currently.

Ronald Bookbinder

Analyst

On the apparel side, that would really help drive gross margin because you'll have less to clear. And that would give you some benefit to help offset the increase in freight, correct?

Jon Barker

Analyst

That's correct. Ron, to be clear though, we aren't in the shape we want to be in all categories. So let's say we have some apparel to move through to get everything lined up with our inventory commitments and rigor for the future, so that will take a little time to get into the spot where we expect it to be.

Ronald Bookbinder

Analyst

And on footwear, impressive comp on the footwear. What is driving footwear this past quarter?

Jon Barker

Analyst

The weather, again, I hate to choose weather is a good and bad but the weather helped us immensely from a comp in the last quarter. If you remember, we had very, very little moisture in Q1 of 2018, the snowpack was very limited. This year our snowpack boots, snowshoes and related activity, related products in the West did very, very well, given our snow accumulation. So weather helped us there.

Ronald Bookbinder

Analyst

Well, yes, weather is always going to impact outdoor sporting. Gun services, how has that been ramping up, and how has that been accepted by the community?

Jon Barker

Analyst

It's on track, Ron, with expectations. We started slow in our marketing plans to make sure that we had all the processes down, all of the technology in place and the staff. So we're very pleased with its progress. Over time we see that being a very strong pillar in lifetime value engagement with the consumer.

Ronald Bookbinder

Analyst

Have you seen any new loyalty members coming in because of the services you now offer?

Jon Barker

Analyst

I don't know that I can specifically speak to those new services drive in loyalty members. But I can tell you that the loyalty program continues to grow as we've indicated, not only account but also in revenue percentage. And as we think about using our new e-commerce capabilities for customer engagement, the e-mails we're capturing as part of that loyalty program are paying off very nicely for us in reengagement and future transactions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Management, for any closing remarks.

Jon Barker

Analyst

As I wrap up today, I want to thank all our team members, over 5,000 employees at 93 stores, distribution center, corporate office and our care center that support our consumers on a daily basis. Their passion is what keeps our loyal customers coming back to Sportsman's Warehouse. We look forward to building on our progress and further strengthening our market position. Thank you again for joining our earnings call today.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.