Earnings Labs

SunPower Inc. (SPWR)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 13, 2024

$0.89

-1.81%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+21.08%

1 Week

+8.65%

1 Month

-10.27%

vs S&P

-11.88%

Transcript

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Hello. My name is T.J. Rogers. You're at the Complete Solaria Earnings Release. Normally, I insist on having an in house Board Meeting. I was in Salt Lake a couple days ago. Orem is actually where our headquarters is now. A couple days ago and got sick and, tried to fly home. My airplane had a bad, bad valve in it, so I'm homesick with no airplane. Dan and I are going to handle this call. We've got a good report. We're going to handle this call, but in the future, you should expect to see a boardroom with me and the VPs in it ready to answer questions. Today, we'll handle that with just two of us. Okay. Presentation. This is our third quarter report. Q3 '24 and Q4 24 forecasts are as follows. This is for the old Complete Solaria, and then there'll be a new section on the combined company. We've emerged for weeks, decks, and more than a month, and we're looking forward, but this is the last official report of Complete Solaria. We've done the acquisition of SunPower's assets. We've taken three divisions, New Homes, Blue Raven and Dealer, I'll talk about that later. We had a little court battle for the rights to the SunPower brand. The Chinese tried to take it away from us. We won that one. We've also got, here's the SunPower brand. We've taken -- our company has only 65 people in it now. We've just hired 1,204 SunPower employees. In a way, it's not a technical way of saying it, but it's like a reverse merger, the minnows swallow the whale. We hired the people we wanted with interviews and then the new company goes away and the old SunPower takes care of its business without us. We raised…

A - Sioban Hickie

Operator

Thank you, T.J. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Derek Soderberg from Cantor Fitzgerald. It's a two part question. SunPower had a backlog in February of this year of 37,000 new homes and 15,000 retrofit homes in their backlog. Can you update us on the number of new homes and retrofit homes in the backlog currently?

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Okay. Thanks, Derek. You got me right on the very first question. Dan Myers on board here?

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Dan Myers is not on at this time.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Dan? Find a microphone. The answer is we lost some of our new homes business, and the number was on the order of 10% or 20%. And we have an account by account rent of that. Reason was the corporations freaked out two reasons. The corporations freaked out, when SunPower went bankrupt. In effect, their revenue is selling a new house to somebody. And all of a sudden, if an amenity, a $20,000 amenity, like an in wall vacuum cleaner, for example, shuts you down and selling a $500,000 house, not good. So they shifted some business right away. I've been in multiple calls with new homes people, and they are -- they get it. I've had to compromise with them. The deal was, we got some batteries we don't like. You need to take care of them. I go, they're not my batteries. They're SunPower's batteries. SunPower is bankrupt. All SunPower. Well, you got to do it. And I said, we're not the successor, even though I told you we're planning on being, to SunPower. SunPower went bankrupt. They're 4x bigger than us and their bankruptcy could have wiped us out. Let me try this one. If you want new business from my company and that's $45 million a quarter and it's good business, our most profitable business, you'll do something. So I get, I understand that logic, and I think I'm going to work on that problem. So once I decided to work on it, we have actually some pretty good solutions going for the problem. I'll give one example. SunPower made a battery called SunVault. And SunVault is a good battery. It's safe. It has a software problem. And the software locks up typically, and it takes a month. And then, the battery goes into a safe…

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Yes. We have Dan here. I'm handing him the microphone now.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Alright. So Dan, and by the way, get the other product line guys there if we get another question like that. You want to add to what I said?

Dan Myers

Analyst

Yes. I would just add that we're seeing a lot of positive response and support from builders. We have a backlog through Q4 and 2025 of over 10,000 homes. And, while we've seen some attrition from builders, we're rebuilding the relationships.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Are you next are you sitting next to Dan Foley?

Dan Myers

Analyst

I am.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

You guys are broadcasting the wrong picture. You got my picture there. You should be broadcasting their picture. Believe it or not, I actually thank you. Well, flash for a minute. I actually have a spec. Here's Dan Myers. I actually have a spec for how to run this TV show. I'm a little bit unhappy in the way this one's being run, but that'll get fixed. Dan Myers, I met him. I liked him. I invited him to -- I was going to Oshkosh for a jazz festival, my hometown. And I took him there and wined and dined in Oshkosh and recruited him. So he came out of Blue Raven. He is one of the executives in Blue Raven that was really good. And I recruited him to stay in the company. And then, when the new homes opened up, I asked him to take that job. He was a little bit reluctant to begin with, but now he's getting to run his own business and he's understanding that's really cool. And he's really good at it. His technical background of supply chain. You know that thing Joe Biden kept complaining about, which is really complex, that's what he does. And the new homes business is a supply chain business. He asked what percent of our cost because of the bankruptcy.

Daniel Foley

Analyst

Can you hear me okay, T.J.? Can you hear me?

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Yes.

Daniel Foley

Analyst

Excellent. So your estimate of 20% is where we're at right now. We're continually scrubbing that. We've had some builders who've moved some communities away and have come back to us, because they have been thrilled with what they've seen with the competition. I expect we're going to land a little bit higher than 20%, maybe in the 30% range, kind of our trough, and we'll continue to rebuild that throughout 2025 as we regain builders' trust and show them we can execute successfully in Q4.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

And the builders are on our side. Somehow, my phone number got -- my home phone number, my cell phone number got out. I remember when SunPower first announced bankruptcy, I got a call from our second biggest builder, guy with a British accent, kind of reams me out 10 o'clock at night. And then, I tell him we're going to work on it. Then we talked to him and we talked to him again. Then, we talked to him and his boss. And finally, he said, can you guys do anything in Washington state? Of course, we can't. We don't have people there, new SunPower. And the Blue Raven guy says, sure, we got Washington state. He says, I got a deal I want to talk to you about. So their attitude is, as long as you care and are truly doing something, we want to work with you. We don't want our vendor base to be limited, not you have you in it. So we can do that. Next question.

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

The next question is for Dan Foley. Dan, can you talk about the full diluted share count expected exiting 2024, including the expected raise from the Chinese investors? And there's a second part to this, maybe I'd ask that first.

Daniel Foley

Analyst

Yes. That's inclusive of the raise that we're going to do here from the additional funds from the Chinese investor. Fully diluted shares outstanding at the end of the quarter will be approximately a 143 million.

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

And the second part of that question was how much cash do you expect to have on the balance sheet exiting the year?

Daniel Foley

Analyst

Approximately $20 million to $25,000,000.

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Thank you. Last question here from Derek Soderberg. T.J., you mentioned the company can break even in a few quarters. What is the revenue run rate you need to achieve that?

T.J. Rodgers

Management

$80 million. So it's simple. We -- in the last week, after we scrubbed our backlog and started looking at the validity in the solar business, it's common to have backlog and have 30% of evaporate while it's on the books. A guy calls up and says, yeah, you know that solar thing, but I've changed my mind, and that kind of stuff. And you say you've signed a contract. What does that mean? You're going to go force a guy to put solar in his house in Denver, Colorado? Isn’t going to happen. So the answer is when you get $80 million Noah's Ark, we built a company to survive and the revenue we can make and we will do that. So the answer is, it's going to be a breakeven in time and that will be at $80 million. And by the time we get there a couple of quarters, then we will have, I hope, higher revenue. We got one weak quarter that the one of the problems is we're heading into winter. Q1 of the year is a winter quarter. You can't get on roofs or safety standards and all that kind of stuff. So we're looking at second quarter of next year. But we're going to cut now again more so we can live under that $80 million umbrella. I want to make a comment about the 143 million shares. If you go and look at any of the stock tables right now and you divide the market cap they report by the share price, you'll come up with a number like 72 million shares in that realm. And we've gone to 143 million. Now that includes all of our funding, some shares that haven't been issued yet, some shares that are in a pool for employees that haven't been given to employees yet, et cetera. One of the things we're doing is, I gave a lecture, about Silicon Valley, and I was in a room with Blue Raven people who had their company get bought by SunPower for $160 million. And I said to them, well, how many of you made some money on the Blue Raven? And not a hand went up. And I said, okay, so that's not Silicon Valley. The way Silicon Valley works is you get 20% of the stock. And then, if the company gets sold or you just want to trade it, because it's a public stock, you're going to make money. And that's how Silicon Valley companies get the extra performance. I showed them a graph of the top 10. What's that? What's the picture I'm looking at? Something's going weird here.

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

He'll see you just fine, T.J..

T.J. Rodgers

Management

So this guy I'm looking at isn't being broadcast?

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

We can see your face.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

I didn't ask if you could see my face. I asked if the guy I'm looking at can be broadcast or not.

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

No. He's not broadcasting.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Alright. So that must be my machine here. So we have given out, part of our offers were we didn't increase money because we couldn't afford it. So we gave out stock and we gave out a meaningful amount of stock to every employee we hired. And that is Silicon Valley meaningful. It's non-trivial. It's not an option that kind of is interesting to have. And that ended up being 28 million shares. So of the 143 million shares, we will give out, over the next five years, the options vest over five years, 28 million shares to employees. And the idea is they do what they got to do to make the company run right, and we get fix our customer issues, and we move forward and don't gripe about the fact that you don't have that the company has been cut back and you make some meaningful money. It's new car money, new house money, kid goes to expensive school money kind of level for everybody. I pointed out to them, if the Blue Raven acquisition of SunPower, if they had owned 20% of the stock in their company and look at the number of people they had at that time, every employee in that company would have gotten $64,000 worth of stock. And those for the highest level employees, that's what we're talking about with us. So we would all like to thank you for your support of employees in Silicon Valley model in Utah. We're expecting to have that be a competitive weapon that we can use there. So the asterisk on that one, so don't gripe about 143,000,000 shares. We got money in the bank, and we're not expecting to have to raise more money right now.

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Thank you, TJ. I did want to highlight we're at the top of the hour, but we do have more questions.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Keep going. Like, people can leave if they want.

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

We have a question about, C&I, commercial & industrial. There seems to be a lot of opportunities in that segment for growth. What are your thoughts about that for Complete Solar?

T.J. Rodgers

Management

We will -- we have actually commercial & industrial now. They were opportunistic things that one of the companies did. For example, Starbucks decided to show green. And what they did was they put an awning, a solar awning, big one, over, like, the front parking area on posts, and they used the -- there's a type of panel that's got glass on glass. So you can see right through it. You can see themselves, and they're pretty. And so Starbucks got this really good. And these are real systems. They're 50,000 watts. They're not play systems. So we've upgraded 57 Starbucks Restaurants. So we have already gotten into commercial industrial, and we're suited for that, because they're a little bit more formal. They won't pay a premium over market, but the market price in that area is pretty good. So, yes, we're going to go into that. And I'm not going to launch a division or anything like that. We will serve them with our current division, and we'll take business opportunistically. And we already are.

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Thank you. We've actually gotten a couple of these, various forms of the same question. Looking for your thoughts on the impact of the IRA repeal and President Trump impact on the industry and Complete Colar.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Sioban, do you have your comparative stock price graphs?

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

I do. I don't know that I'd be able to pull them up right now.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

If you try real hard, you can. I'll talk while you're working on it. The largest drop in Complete Solar price since I took over as CEO, happened when Donald Trump got elected because Donald Trump gripes about solar energy and how he's not going to support it. Right now, I think the solar energy subsidy is safe, because it's an income tax credit. So you do it, you spend the money, you stimulate the economy. And then the next April, you can knock some money off your income taxes. I don't think that's going to go away, but I'm not an insider in politics. And significant number of investors felt that, and it's already in the share price.

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Thanks, T.J. I am in the process of pulling that up. In the interim, can you speak to future cost reductions? How much more do you expect?

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Sure. I can't see the picture we're broadcasting anymore. Is my picture still there? Now you know why I insist we go in the boardroom and have one guy who's one arm's length choking distance away from me to run these shows.

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Are you looking for your slides, T.J.?

T.J. Rodgers

Management

I'm looking for T.J. My question was, is my picture being broadcast?

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Yes.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Okay. Then in my case, I brought up the complete solar slide, and I can talk to a blank screen. No sweat. I'm getting old. Remind me again in the question. Hello?

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Cost reduction efforts. What further cost do we anticipate going forward?

T.J. Rodgers

Management

So we've cut from 2,800 to 1,200 employees. We will lose another couple of hundred who are redundant. For example, in our finance group. We started out with 67 employees from basically all the finance people from all the companies, so that we could get our first quarter, Q3 and our first official quarter, Q4, done exactly right, and we didn't have any tribal knowledge. But then we were skinny on down that group. As a matter of fact, I showed you some dramatic cuts in the various groups, legal, et cetera. That's actually our target. Right now, we've got some employees who are leaving at the end of this quarter and the end of next quarter. Those cost targets are there. We have Lehigh is sort of like the Palo Alto of Salt Lake, and we're in an expensive building. We're out of there. We moved out last week. SunPower had, as I remember, 98 leases all over the United States, including multiple leases in Austin, Texas. We're moving into one building. I don't know which building that is yet. Linda DeGiulio, our Chief Administrative Officer is going to work with the people in Texas and pick it. I like colocation, but I don't need five buildings in Austin, Texas, et cetera. And all of that's just -- that's going to roll it over the year because you don't get out of a lease right away. You typically have to sublease and then you go a couple of years and then then you get rid of it. So we got, okay, we're working with a group called Ayna, A-Y-N-A. They are a spin out of Mackenzie. They are a spin out of the famous Mackenzie Group that operated out of Palo Alto that worked with the solar industry, excuse…

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

T.J., we have the slide ready for you now.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Okay. I need to see it. How do I do that? I'm trapped in my own pitch, and I need to see what they're brought there. I got it. I got it. Nope. That's T.J.'s pitch. I like this one. I need to go back and see their picture. She's going to show something, and I'm going to talk about it. Okay. There it is. Good. So, this is a graph. We're in the dark line, and it's approximately from the time I joined. Is my arrow visible here? Is my arrow visible here? Do you see?

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

I don't think so.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Okay. Thank you. So there's press releases there, and you see term sheet Carlisle debt. So you can see a big pop is a doubling of stock when we signed the term sheet. You can see Trump over on the side, so that was negative, et cetera. So right now, we're relative to the solar industry, we're doing well. People believe we're doing the right stuff to succeed. We are. And I have to argue all the time. I'm not really a mean guy. We have to do this for investors. I give the lecture about investors own us. We have fiduciary responsibility to make money for them. And I sound like Anne Smith when I'm giving the lectures, but it's taken root. Is that the only slide you've got? Sioban?

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Apologies.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Is that the only slide you have?

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Yes.

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Okay. So I want to point out right below the word change is look at what happened today, two days after we won the SunPower, won the stocking horse thing, Judge ruled for us. So you can see they're coupled in. As long as we bring out good news periodically, which we will, at least I'll intend to, we'll do okay. And cost cutting is part of that. Okay. We can go back to questions.

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Thank you. I have one final question for you, T.J. It appears you are close to creating another $1 billion company. Do you see Complete Solar doing over a $1 billion in annual revenue, and how soon could you achieve this?

T.J. Rodgers

Management

This is, would you please commit suicide on film and make a promise you can't keep, meanwhile, my lawyers have got their tape recorders turned on. I have a slide I showed shareholders. You can go on our website and look because I don't want to go through the rigmarole of finding a slide right now. But, if we grow only at the rate that the solar market is expected to grow, we don't take share. And if we do revenue of $622 million then two years later in 2028, we will have revenue of $900 million. Now next sentence is based on the $100 million going to $80 , 00,000 that I told you today, that $622 million is more likely $480 million, and you have the same compound growth rate. I think that takes you up to $700 million and change. So I see revenue, if we grow at the average rate without taking share, don't acquire anybody, that kind of stuff, getting up $700 million. Right now, if we're going to do that, and I already showed you. It's a bunch of companies that are going to be on the market. They're going to be buyable. I would like stock, real stocks, stocks traded on the stock exchange. And we'll give you and your people an option. And then I'll give you, Mr. Founder, some money for what you did, and then, you can come out and be one of our managers and VPs and run this thing. So we have plans to grow like that. Can I? Okay, let me talk about $700 million in 2028. And you realize, it's not an ass pull because I took what we're really going to do this quarter, took a reduced version of 2025 and then applied the average…

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Thank you, T.J. That wraps up all the questions we have for today. Did you wish to make any final comments?

T.J. Rodgers

Management

Nope. Thank you.

Sioban Hickie

Analyst

Thank you, everyone. You may now disconnect.