Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to Sempra’s Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn it over to Glen Donovan. Please go ahead.
Sempra (SRE)
Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 28, 2023
$92.70
+0.26%
Same-Day
-1.40%
1 Week
-1.11%
1 Month
+2.12%
vs S&P
-2.22%
Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to Sempra’s Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn it over to Glen Donovan. Please go ahead.
Glen Donovan
Management
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Sempra’s fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. A live webcast of this teleconference and slide presentation are available on our website under the Investors section. Here in San Diego, we have several members of our management team with us today, including Jeff Martin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Trevor Mihalik, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Kevin Sagara, Executive Vice President and Group President; Justin Bird, Chief Executive Officer of Sempra Infrastructure; Allen Nye, Chief Executive Officer of Oncor; Peter Wall, Senior Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer; and other members of our senior management team. Before starting, I’d like to remind everyone that we will be discussing forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement we make today. The factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially are discussed in the company’s most recent 10-K filed with the SEC. Earnings per share amounts in our presentation are shown on a diluted basis and we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the presentation slides that accompany this call for a reconciliation to GAAP measures. We also encourage you to review our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022. I’d also like to mention that the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only of today, February 28, 2023 and it’s important to note that the company does not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements in the future. With that, please turn to Slide 4 and let me hand the call over to Jeff.
Jeff Martin
Management
Thank you, Glen and thank you all for joining us today. We are pleased with our accomplishments in 2022 and in large measure it gives us added confidence in our future performance. In 2023, we will be celebrating our 25th anniversary and across our management team, we are pursuing future opportunities with a lot of optimism. For purposes of today’s call, I will provide summary comments on our performance recap our business strategy and frame our success in terms of our accomplishments over the last half decade. Then Trevor and Justin will review our business and financial accomplishments in greater detail and we will reserve time for your questions. Let me start with Sempra Infrastructure. In 2022, the United States reached an important milestone as an energy exporter. It was the first year that our country became the top exporter of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, while also leading the LNG industry and new offtake contracts that support future development. This supports our view that U.S. LNG exports will more than double by the end of the decade. At Sempra Infrastructure, we built an exciting backlog of LNG development projects that are expected to support that forecasted growth. As one example, Sempra Infrastructure signed more long-term SPAs and HOAs for LNG offtake in the fourth quarter of 2022 than any other market participant. In part, this has allowed us to stay on track in meeting our goal of taking a final investment decision on Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 before the end of the quarter. Outside of our LNG business, we see the continued need to expand and modernize North America’s energy networks, particularly in California and Texas. There is a common opportunity set in front of each of our business platforms focused on investments in modern energy infrastructure that…
Trevor Mihalik
Management
Thanks, Jeff. What we would like to do is update you on three things. First, I will provide business updates on Sempra California and Sempra Texas then Justin will discuss Sempra Infrastructure, including notable progress on our LNG export projects, and then I’ll wrap up with a review of our financial results. Let me start with Sempra California. Community safety is a core tenet of our culture, and I’m proud to highlight that in 2022, SDG&E completed the hardening of 100% of its Tier 3 high-fire threat district transmission infrastructure. This has been long journey that reflects the dedicated efforts of our employees, extending across more than a decade and have significantly improved community safety. In November, SDG&E received a final decision from the CPUC maintaining its 2022 cost of capital rates of return. In December, SDG&E and SoCalGas received a final decision authorizing the 2023 cost of capital, which preserved both companies’ equity layers at 52% and updated SDG&E’s and SoCalGas’ ROE to 9.95% and 9.8%, respectively, through 2025. Last year, we announced the Angeles Link hydrogen proposal. In December, SoCalGas received CPUC approval to establish a memorandum account that allows the company to track the costs of performing Phase 1 feasibility studies. This is an important milestone in evaluating new opportunities to advance California’s decarbonization goals. Moreover, the CPUC directed SoCalGas to include this as part of California’s application to the U.S. Department of Energy for Hydrogen Hub federal funding. SoCalGas believes Angeles Link has the potential to serve a significant strategic role in supporting the build-out of a full scale Hydrogen Hub and the transition to a green hydrogen economy in Southern California. As proposed, this would be one of the largest hydrogen infrastructure hubs in the U.S. and would support the decarbonization of hard to electrify…
Justin Bird
Management
Thanks, Trevor. I’m excited about Sempra Infrastructure’s recent accomplishments and want to highlight some of our key achievements. Sempra Infrastructure has seen a solid year of commercial activity with robust LNG, cross-border renewables and pipeline infrastructure demand, creating a foundation for future growth. During the year, Sempra Infrastructure brought assets online within its Clean Power and Energy Networks businesses, while operations at its Cameron LNG Phase 1 terminal exceeded production targets. On the Pacific Coast, we continue to expect ECA LNG Phase 1 commercial operations to commence in the summer of 2025. Also, both ECA LNG Phase 2 and Vista Pacifico LNG received DOE approvals to re-export U.S.-sourced natural gas from Mexico in the form of LNG to non-free trade agreement countries. Please turn to the next slide. As you all know, we continue to advance our strategy of building out a dual market platform that allows us to efficiently deliver LNG to customers in the Atlantic and Pacific regions. To that end, I am excited to say we have completed the marketing phase for Port Arthur LNG Phase 1. We have carefully structured this development project to reduce risk by fully contracting the long-term offtake securing a fixed price EPC and identifying world-class development partners. In November 2022, we announced the execution of definitive agreements with ConocoPhillips, pursuant to which they would acquire a 30% ownership interest in Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 and take 5 MTPA of offtake from the project. In January, we announced that Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 was fully subscribed at 10.5 Mtpa of definitive long-term take-or-pay contracts with world-class counterparties. We also have a fixed price turnkey EPC contract with arguably the most experienced LNG EPC provider in the U.S., Bechtel. With the completion of marketing and execution of the EPC contract, we’re…
Trevor Mihalik
Management
Thanks, Justin. Turning to Sempra’s financial results. Earlier this morning, we reported fourth quarter 2022 GAAP earnings of $438 million or $1.39 per share. This compares to fourth quarter 2021 GAAP earnings of $604 million or $1.90 per share. On an adjusted basis, fourth quarter 2022 earnings were $743 million or $2.35 per share. This compares to our fourth quarter 2021 earnings of $688 million or $2.16 per share. Full year 2022 GAAP earnings were $2.94 billion or $6.62 per share. This compares to 2021 GAAP earnings of $1.254 billion or $4.01 per share. On an adjusted basis, full year 2022 earnings were $2.915 billion or $9.21 per share. This compares favorably to our previous full year 2021 adjusted earnings of $2.637 billion or $8.43 per share. As a reminder, 2022 includes the minority interest sale of Sempra Infrastructure to ADIA that closed in June of 2022. Even after considering this minority interest sale, our strong performance and growing adjusted earnings demonstrate our ability to generate value for our shareholders while providing safe and reliable service to our customers. Please turn to the next slide. The variance in full year 2022 adjusted earnings compared to the same period last year can be summarized by the following: at Sempra California, $161 million of higher earnings from higher CPUC base operating margin, net of higher operating expenses at SDG&E and SoCalGas and $46 million of higher flow-through items related to repairs deduction allowances and self-developed software and other items recorded as a reduction to income tax at SDG&E, partially offset by $52 million of higher net interest expense primarily due to higher debt balances at SDG&E and SoCalGas. At Sempra Texas Utilities, $120 million of higher equity earnings primarily due to rate updates at Oncor to reflect increases in invested capital, higher…
Operator
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Shar Pourreza
Analyst
Hey, guys.
Jeff Martin
Management
Hi, good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourreza
Analyst
Good morning, Jeff. Just maybe just more broadly on the 6% to 8% growth CAGR from the ‘23 midpoint based. I mean I guess the question is the cadence of growth that is embedded in that long-term CAGR. And the reason why I ask is the ‘22 to ‘23 original midpoints reflect 6% growth in ‘23. And obviously, we don’t have ‘24 guidance today. So do you anticipate some step-up in growth with maybe regulatory outcomes, SIP projects reaching commercial operations and getting some clarity on the upwards cost of capital revision in California as we move further in plan?
Jeff Martin
Management
Sure. Let me provide some context here. You did mention the step up from ‘22 to ‘23, which was about 9.25% growth. I’ll give you a couple of things that I think will help you on this. One is when you look back over the last 1, 5, 10, 20-year periods of financial performance, we’ve delivered EPS growth in the range of 6% to 8% or higher. In fact, over the last 5-year, Shar, we’ve delivered a compound annual growth rate of right at around 11%. So I would also note, over those same periods of time, we’ve outperformed our sector in total shareholder returns. Second, harking back to 2022, as you alluded to, our 5-year capital plan we launched last year was our largest ever at $36 billion. And you’ll recall that over 90% of those dollars were allocated toward meeting our expected rate base growth. And we certainly – we think that will continue to be a big driver across the balance of the decade. But one of the reasons we have so much confidence in our long-term growth rate is because now we really have improved visibility to a portfolio of growth opportunities at Sempra Infrastructure over the same period. So we feel very good about our 6% to 8% growth rate. I think that we’ve demonstrated over a long period of time we have the ability inside this organization to grow at a rate faster than that. And we’ve certainly done that in the last 12 months than we’ve done it over the last 5 years.
Shar Pourreza
Analyst
Got it. And Jeff, just – I was actually referring to the original midpoint on ‘22 from ‘23. But I appreciate, thank you for that clarity. Just on the ‘23 guide, I just want to make sure, is there – is it inclusive of sort of the headwinds around O&M, interest rates, cost of capital that we just saw in California. Just trying to get a sense a better idea of what’s in and what’s upside to ‘23 and whether there is any tail risks out there that we should be concerned about? Or is it just the fact that you want these events to close?
Jeff Martin
Management
Yes. I think it’s a combination of both. You’ll recall that when we set our 2023 guidance last February. We’ve come back 12 months later, we’ve affirmed that guidance. When you look at the 2022 results, obviously, it was record adjusted EPS for our company, really had strong safety results, strong operational results, executed a $7.8 billion capital plan, which we’re really very pleased with. But I would note to your point, as we look to 2023, we are going to manage some headwinds, right? Number one, you referenced one of them which is the ROEs and our California utilities were adjusted down by 25 basis points. We are operating in a higher interest rate environment. Number three, and Trevor mentioned this one, non-controlling interest at Sempra Infrastructure today is 10% higher than it was at this time last year. And we’re managing some different potential outcomes associated with the Oncor base review. That said, the reason we’re confident about our 2023 numbers, and we’re going to work hard to beat them is. We have a great plan of execution. It causes us to have a lot of confidence in our guidance. And I would also mention to your earlier question, we have a visibility to one of our largest portfolios of opportunities in the future, and that’s why we feel very good about the 6% to 8% growth rate.
Shar Pourreza
Analyst
Perfect. And then just lastly on the LNG side, Jeff, as you’re getting closer to ECO COD, can you just maybe talk about how the economics of that project kind of stack up in the context of SIP similar returns and earnings contribution, pro rata versus chem or there sort of some headwinds from the inflationary pressures, interest rates, etcetera, more broadly. So how would the economics? Is that in line with other projects, especially Port Arthur as the next step is, that’s the next big one.
Jeff Martin
Management
Well, thank you. We’re certainly excited about Port Arthur. I noted in Justin’s prepared remarks, I think he used the word exciting 4 or 5x. I think it reflects our excitement inside the company. As Sempra Infrastructure, you’ve followed us for a long time, Shar. We tend to be very disciplined in how we allocate capital between shareholder distributions and new projects like Port Arthur. Sempra Infrastructure typically targets high single-digit to low double-digit unlevered returns. And we mentioned in our prepared remarks that we do this with the goal of maintaining portfolio equity returns in the mid-teens. We’re very excited. I think one of the things Justin talked about is, we think we can give this project on time and on budget. But given the positive interest in the marketplace for the project, I would tell you the returns that I decided we think, are very reasonable. But 1 thing it’s worth our audience tracking, which is we also expect to retain certain preferences and economics and the sell-down of our equity and asset optimization initiatives like you’ve seen us do around debottlenecking, expansion projects and gas supply that could give us returns at levels well higher than our normal target.
Shar Pourreza
Analyst
Perfect. Thank you, guys so much. Appreciate it. I will see you soon.
Jeff Martin
Management
Yes. Thanks for joining the call.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And our next question will come from Nicholas Campanella from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Nicholas Campanella
Analyst
Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question.
Jeff Martin
Management
Good morning.
Nicholas Campanella
Analyst
Good morning. Hey, I just wanted to round out the conversation on just how to think about growth past ‘23. When we think about the EPS CAGR off the ‘23 midpoint, does that already incorporate the 5-year CapEx view you’ll give us on the first quarter? Does it assume anything for LNG development on top of ECA such as funding for Port Arthur and Cameron 2. Can you just give us a sense of how the next update can affect growth considerations? Thank you.
Jeff Martin
Management
Yes. I appreciate the question. I would remind folks that we brought back our 5-year forecast back in 2021. The convention we’ve adopted over the last several years has been to work off the midpoint of our current year guidance, which we announced today we feel very solid about our 6% to 8% growth rate. And really, that’s looking at the roll forward capital plan from last year of about $36 billion. I think what’s exciting for us is we have the opportunity to improve that forecast. Certainly, Phase 1 of Port Arthur is important. And Allen and his team are doing a really good job of managing our rate case outcomes in Texas. So I would just say that, that 6% to 8% growth rate is something that looks conservative relative to our past performance. And I will tell you that one of the things we talked a little bit in my prepared remarks about how we have repositioned the business over the last 5 years, what’s unique today is our visibility into future growth is better than it has been in the past. So, we want to get through a couple of big events here in the spring and come back with a more robust capital plan by our May call, and we look forward to having that conversation in greater detail.
Nicholas Campanella
Analyst
Okay. Thanks a lot for that. And then I just wanted to ask just capital allocation question. The dividend increase is 3.9%. We just noticed that maybe a little light compared to what you kind of executed on historically. Can you just give us a sense of what’s driving that? How you are thinking about capital allocation regarding the dividend? And then also the buyback that you outlined last year, just given you have all these new growth opportunities in front of you that would be great. Thank you.
Jeff Martin
Management
Yes. That’s a great question. I will tell you, one of the things that really differentiates good companies from average companies is how disciplined you are in capital allocation. And I will tell you, we certainly understand the importance of dividend to our investors, and that’s why we have consistently grown it over the last 12 years. Our Board has established a projected payout ratio for us between 50% and 60%. What we announced today falls in the 53% range. And I would make a comment that over the last 10 years, we have averaged roughly a 7% increase to our dividend, which we feel great about. But remember, too, that we are investing in our businesses to support organic growth, and that is our most important initiative. And over our history, I think most people would say our focus has been on investing in opportunities to grow our business while balancing that with returning capital to shareholders, just like you talked about. So, you have seen us return capital in the form of share repurchases, and we have also been fairly aggressive about returning capital in the form of a dividend. So, I guess my concluding point would be in combination, that dividend growth and the planned growth we have in front of the company, we think this strategy has resulted in the relative outperformance of Sempra stock over the last 1-year, 5-year, 10-year and 20-year period relative to our index. We are committed to disciplined capital allocation in a strategic manner that results in increase in shareholder value. It is certainly a priority to our management team.
Nicholas Campanella
Analyst
Okay. And then if I could just sneak one last one in. Just the NCI sale around Port Arthur, can you just kind of give us a sense of how we should think about that timeline? Do you have to take FID first and then pursue it? Just how should investors think about that?
Jeff Martin
Management
Yes. I would say we focused on really the last two remaining items that we are working on right now is focusing on lined up our non-recourse debt and also the sell-down of equity, right. And I think if you think about historically, what we have communicated about how we finance projects. We do step one, we look at project level debt is non-recourse to our owners. Two, we leverage the benefit of partners at the project level. We are very pleased to have ConocoPhillips play in that role in Port Arthur. Third, we use capital calls from our partners at separate infrastructure partners. We have got ADIA and KKR and the capital structure and they are going to have an important role in helping us move this project forward. And then finally, as we are doing now, we look to bring in new sources of private equity capital to sell down our interest. So, for us, it’s all about striking the right numbers to take FID, and you should expect us to execute in a way that economizers calls on our equity while striking the right balance of efficient financing, risk mitigation and retention of upside from future project cash flows.
Nicholas Campanella
Analyst
Thanks for all the color. Appreciate it.
Jeff Martin
Management
Appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And our next question will come from Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho. Your line is open.
Jeff Martin
Management
Hi Anthony.
Anthony Crowdell
Analyst
Hey. Good afternoon Jeff. Good afternoon Trevor.
Trevor Mihalik
Management
How are you doing?
Anthony Crowdell
Analyst
Good. Hopefully, two easy ones. And I guess – I don’t know if you mentioned it in Shar’s question, but Slide 14, you guys talk about maybe basis differential in the Western gas market. Is that an investment opportunity for either the regulated utilities or SIP?
Jeff Martin
Management
I would go back to a couple of first principles here, which is we are very focused on building an infrastructure company. It’s one of the reasons that we talked about the reposition of this business back in 2018 really around being an infrastructure business and really removing non-core assets and commodities from our business model. So, in the Western region right now, we are focused on working through this Western region gas event. And certainly, we are trying to do that from a customer perspective. We have been relatively aggressive about trying to ensure we are making the appropriate announcements to our customers and put some good programs in place. But no, we are not pursuing a basis differential opportunity. But I would think it might be helpful, Justin, talk about how we think about your asset position, particularly in Texas, Louisiana and Mexico.
Justin Bird
Management
Yes, sure. Thanks Jeff. I think – and I will hark into something that you said earlier, Jeff, that as a starting point, SI is really focused on long-term contracted cash flows from our infrastructure projects in Louisiana, Texas and Mexico. And I think there is two important points to remember there. One, we don’t own infrastructure in the Western U.S. and two we work to avoid commodity exposure. As you think about ECA LNG in Baja, as you recall, when we took FID decision in 2020, we essentially leased transportation capacity that would allow natural gas to be delivered from the producing basins both in Texas and New Mexico to the project when it comes online in 2025. And in the interim, we look to offset those costs by utilizing that capacity to deliver gas to customers. But given our infrastructure focus, we do this by conservatively hedging our position well in advance, which reduces our market exposure. And you will notice, as you look in the ‘22 earnings on a GAAP basis, as a result of those hedges, we have unrealized mark-to-market losses of over $300 million, which represents the difference between our conservative hedges and the market price. So again, as an infrastructure company, we prefer to optimize recurring infrastructure cash flows and minimize our exposure to changes in commodity prices, essentially exchanging price volatility to get recurring cash flows. And I think you will see that trend continue. We are focused on long-term recurring cash flows from credit where the offtakers and that will be our focus at SI.
Anthony Crowdell
Analyst
Great. And then if I could just follow-up probably also to you, Justin, on the Port Author Phase 1, enter the EPC contract, $10.5 billion fixed price. If you could just give us some more color maybe on the contract. Is there cost-plus agreement or any commodity exposure that maybe SIP or Sempra has with Bechtel, and I will leave it there?
Justin Bird
Management
Yes. Thanks Anthony. So yes, as we have said, that contract is for $10.5 billion. It is a fixed price. There is some escalation components in that as we move towards issuing a final notice to proceed. I think importantly, let me emphasize again, we are very proud of our selection of Bechtel. They have a history of building projects, LNG projects in the Gulf that have all been on-time, on-budget and have importantly provided production numbers in excess of what was guaranteed. As we look at our specific EPC contract, there are some very small pieces of that, that would float. But again, we have a contingency in place as does Bechtel to handle those adjustments. So, I think again, looking to Bechtel’s history, they delivered on-time, on-budget, under fixed price EPC contract. So, we are very comfortable with the contract. And again, I will use my word again, I can’t tell you how excited we are as we move towards FID prior to the end of this quarter.
Anthony Crowdell
Analyst
Great. Thanks so much. Congratulations on the great quarter.
Jeff Martin
Management
Thanks Anthony.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Rich Sunderland
Analyst
Hi. Good morning. It’s actually Rich Sunderland on for Jeremy. Thank you for the time today.
Jeff Martin
Management
Hey Rich.
Rich Sunderland
Analyst
Sticking with some of the LNG questions here, I know in the past on the growth rate you have had LNG in the plan. And obviously, the business has changed a lot since then. I believe Port Arthur was upside to the growth rate last year. Just curious if that’s still the case this year, or is Port Arthur now baked in as you approach FID.
Jeff Martin
Management
Yes, it’s a great question. We are going to update our roll forward 5-year capital plan later this spring. Currently, we are working off of the plan we rolled out last year. We don’t simply put projects in our plan unless they have reached FID. So, I would view Port Arthur as an upside to our long-term opportunities.
Rich Sunderland
Analyst
Got it. Very clear. Thank you. And then looking across a range of future LNG projects, are you seeing more interest from Asian buyers versus European buyers for incremental offtake, curious where interest stands?
Jeff Martin
Management
Yes. I would tell you the answer is both, right. So, you have gone through a really unique situation in Europe. Most of the contracts for Phase 1 are being launched off the basis of Europe. But I would also note in the Washington Post a few days ago, they talked about the highest ever approval rate for coal plants in China where they are launching 106 gigawatts of new coal plants. That’s 82 new plants going into service. And between China and India, they burn about 70% of all the coal in the world. So, there is a big opportunity for energy insecurity in Asia. The long-term market opportunity remains an Asian opportunity. And the great news is we have got a platform that allows us to dispatch efficiently into the Atlantic and the Pacific. And I think that’s one of the things that offtakers are excited about doing business with Sempra because of that.
Rich Sunderland
Analyst
Great. Thanks for the time today.
Jeff Martin
Management
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And our last question will come from Craig Shere from Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.
Jeff Martin
Management
Hi Craig.
Craig Shere
Analyst
Hi. Thanks for taking the question. So, I am often accused of getting over my skis, especially on LNG. But looking past PA1 and Cameron 2, first, could you discuss the logical pecking order at this time between Port Arthur 2, Vista Pacifico and ECA2.
Jeff Martin
Management
Sure, Craig. I will pass that to Justin, and maybe you can provide some view in terms of how you are thinking about the loading order for development.
Justin Bird
Management
Yes. Thanks Jeff. And Craig, I am never going to assume you don’t have a lot of LNG experience. So, thanks for your question. I think as you look at the pecking order, again, it can always change. As you will note, about this time last year, the war in Ukraine changed, what we thought was, our pecking order at that time. But as I think about our opportunities going forward, let me start with Port Arthur Phase 2. I think there is a lot of excitement around a second phase at Port Arthur, would be brownfield, would clearly benefit from sharing of common facilities. And as I think about that development, there is a few key work streams, which again, is consistent with Craig, how we have always discussed about how we move forward our LNG projects. First, permitting, Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 has an application in the FERC and the FERC order is pending. Second is commercial. We have MOUs for volumes out of Phase 2 and are discussions with many parties to fill any outstanding volumes. Engineering and construction, we are in discussions with Bechtel about continuous construction and optimizing that process. And as we always do, we are engaged with the credit rating agencies to make sure as we think about financing these opportunities, we find them the most efficient way to finance taking into account credit and returns. So, that’s kind of Port Arthur. If you ask me the pecking order, I think the second phase at Port Arthur would be next. As we think about Vista Pacifico, I think you are seeing some exciting developments there as we continue to work with the Mexican government and with CFE about really optimizing supply there. There is a lot of interest, as you might expect, given it’s out of the Pacific Coast. And as we think about ECA LNG Phase 2, I think you have seen some also exciting developments. If you recall, we recently got our non-FTA permits for both Vista and ECA. The other thing that you may have noticed is we had an MOU that we announced with CFE and Carso, which would be an opportunity to bring additional gas volumes to the Baha area, which could expedite the development of ECA LNG Phase 2. So again, I hate to be the being accused of saying excited too much, but I think there are exciting opportunities in the rest of our LNG portfolio.
Craig Shere
Analyst
Great. And that kind of tees up a little bit my second question here. I guess on a macro basis in the United States, I am wondering, Justin, if you have some feel for after remarkable prior 12 months of contracting, what we might see in terms of a slowdown in the next year or 2 years? And what I am kind of referring to is that if some partially contracted projects were across the finish line, some peers, we could see 80-plus Mtpa of FIDs within 18 months. And we are just wondering if that’s just more than the market needs just past mid-decade.
Jeff Martin
Management
Well, this is Jeff speaking. I will provide a couple of comments, and Justin, feel free to weigh in. We think our view across the decade is very similar with what’s been put out by the EIA, which is forecasting 130% growth for U.S. LNG across the decade. The 80 million tons per annum that you referenced sounds about right, actually. I think actually the DOE might be forecasting slightly more than that. But remember, it’s not just American LNG, we are competing against other markets, whether it’s Australia or Qatar. There is certainly opportunities potentially at Mozambique. And remember, there are still volumes coming out of Russia, particularly on the North Coast as well as from South. And so, I think one of the things we have noticed is there is a tremendous demand for energy security and affordable sources of energy and natural gas has a very big runway internationally. We may see a decline here in the United States in different regions of the country, but it is a really big opportunity. I think the United States is viewed as a market that has security of supply, and we have got good counterparties and we have got good credit, and we have got deep capital markets. So, we are going to see the lion’s share of LNG across the globe will be coming from the United States across this decade.
Craig Shere
Analyst
Thank you.
Jeff Martin
Management
Thank you for joining us.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. That concludes today’s question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Jeff Martin for any additional closing remarks.
Jeff Martin
Management
Sure. Just by way of a brief close, we know there are several investor conferences underway today. So, we very much appreciate everyone making time to join us. If there are any follow-up questions, per custom, always reach out to our IR team with any additional questions. This concludes our call.
Operator
Operator
Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.