Earnings Labs

Stoneridge, Inc. (SRI)

Q1 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, May 1, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Stoneridge First Quarter 2025 Conference Call. All participants would be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instruction] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kelly Harvey. Please go ahead.

Kelly Harvey

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our first quarter 2025 results. The release and accompanying presentation was filed with the SEC, and is posted on our website at stoneridge.com in the Investors section under Presentations and Events. Joining me on today's call are Jim Zizelman, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Matt Horvath, our Chief Financial Officer. During today's call, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see slide two of the presentation for a more detailed description of these non-GAAP financial measures, and the appendix for a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. In addition, certain statements today may be forward looking statements. Forward looking statements include statements that are not historical in nature, and include information concerning our future results or plans. Although we believe that such statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, you should understand that these statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Additional information about such factors and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ may be found on page three of the presentation and in our Form 10 Q, which has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the heading Forward Looking Statements. After Jim and Matt have finished their formal remarks, we will then open up the call to questions. And with that, I will hand the call over to Jim.

Jim Zizelman

Analyst

Thanks, Kelly, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin on page four. In summary, we delivered strong performance in the first quarter, including operating margin improvement across every single one of our segments, overall adjusted gross margin improvement of 210 basis points, and adjusted EBITDA and cash performance that soundly exceeded our expectations. MirrorEye revenue increased by an impressive 24% relative to the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by strong sales in the bus market, and the continued ramp up of our previously launched OEM programs, where we are benefiting from the system becoming standard equipment on several additional truck models. MirrorEye continues to be a strong growth driver for Stoneridge as the system continues to gain momentum through our OEM programs, as well as through continued expansion in our aftermarket applications. And as I mentioned previously, adjusted gross margin improved by a healthy 210 basis points in the first quarter, driving adjusted operating and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. This progress was a result of success across our key operational priorities as we continued to focus on material cost improvement, where we achieved a strong 220 basis point reduction, and reduced quality-related costs, which resulted in a $2.5 million improvement relative to the fourth quarter of last year. We are also seeing success in improving our cash performance as well, driving working capital reductions through continued management of our inventory. This resulted in free cash flow of approximately $4.9 million, an increase of approximately $1.5 million versus the first quarter of the prior year. We are very proud of the progress we have made in reducing our inventory, which has resulted in a $28 million reduction over the first quarter of last year. Matt will provide further details on our financial and cash performance later on the call. Over the…

Matt Horvath

Analyst

Thank you, Jim. Turning to page eight; sales in the first quarter were $217.9 million, approximately in line with our expectations. First quarter adjusted EBITDA was $7.6 million, resulting in a $1.6 million improvement relative to the fourth quarter of last year, exceeding our previously outlined expectations. As Jim mentioned earlier on the call, we are maintaining our full-year guidance ranges based on our first quarter outperformance and run rate margin improvement, as well as our original relatively conservative assumptions related to vehicle production volume. In the recent weeks, third-party production forecasts have significantly reduced full-year production volume expectations, primarily in the back-half of the year. However, based on our original conservative assumptions for our full-year guidance, as well as the current short-term production forecast provided by our customers, our expectations have not been significantly impacted. Even considering the most recent external production forecast, we expect to perform within our previously provided EBITDA guidance range. Consistent with the outperformance we saw in the first quarter, we expect continued progress on our material cost improvement initiatives, and quality-related costs for the remainder of the year. We will continue to manage structural costs and make adjustments as necessary to align our operating structure with current market conditions. We expect our revenue and EBITDA cadence for the year to be relatively consistent with previous expectations. We expect the second quarter performance will slightly increase compared to the first quarter. We expect continued expansion of MirrorEye sales in the second-half of the year, primarily driven by the continued ramp up of new programs to substantially offset production volume headwinds. As a result, we expect revenue to be approximately evenly split between the first and second-half of the year. We expect continued EBITDA margin performance as a result of the actions we are taking to…

Jim Zizelman

Analyst

Thanks, Matt, and turning to page 13. In summary, our strong first quarter performance was driven by continued progression across each of our key priorities for 2025. As evidenced by the progress made so far this year, this team is laser focused on executing on our key priorities to drive strong growth, continued margin improvement and an improved balance sheet. We remain focused on building a strong foundation for continued earnings expansion as we capitalize on our impressive portfolio of advanced technologies. We will continue to focus on overall operating cost improvement and operational execution to drive strong contribution margin and focus on inventory reduction to improve our cash position and reduce our leverage profile. We are quite confident in our ability to navigate global trade policies and implement mitigating actions to limit the impact of tariffs on our performance. We will continue to focus on addressing the things we can control and reacting efficiently and effectively to conditions that are not in our control. Stoneridge remains well positioned to continue to outperform our underlying end markets resulting in long-term shareholder value. And as always, driving shareholder value is at the forefront of all of Stoneridge's strategic initiatives. And with that, I will open the call to questions.

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Daniel Imbro with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Daniel Imbro

Analyst

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking the questions.

Jim Zizelman

Analyst

Good morning, Daniel.

Daniel Imbro

Analyst

Maybe, Jim, I'll start on the electronics kind of momentum. It's really good to see MirrorEye and SMART 2 both accelerate. Can you maybe just unpack a little bit more detail what improved, kind of how that trended versus your expectations for the improvement this year? And as you think about the margin, Matt, I think you mentioned sales and margins should ramp through the year. Any way to help frame up the amount of increase we should expect Office 1Q margin?

Jim Zizelman

Analyst

Daniel, first off, thanks for the question, and thanks for joining us this morning. Yes, the improvements that we saw here in the first quarter of 2025 really springboard from a lot of what we were talking about after the fourth quarter call. We obviously are now ramping up quite significantly our launch with Volvo in Europe, right? That's really taking grip and there's a lot of traction there. We've talked a lot about the application of the product as standard equipment on additional models, right? So, that's providing some additional opportunity for us, and we're seeing that in the sales. And we also are seeing in the aftermarket, especially in the bus market, a lot more interest and a lot more applications happening throughout both North America and Europe. So, all of those things really led to where we are today. And we do expect as we go forward through the remainder of the year, as we launch here in North America with Volvo and its related brands as well as with Daimler Truck North America, we will expect to see those begin to take the same kind of pathway that Volvo in Europe did in terms of implementation and acceptance of the product. So, we're really quite bullish on the sales for MirrorEye going forward for sure.

Matt Horvath

Analyst

Yes. On the margin side, Daniel, I would say typical contribution margin is kind of 25% to 30%. I would expect that some of the initiatives we've talked about this morning on the material cost side and the quality side continue to ramp as we go through the year, like we talked about some of those initiatives mature. But I would expect kind of a linear progression of margin as we move through the year with a pretty strong run rate obviously at the end of the year.

Daniel Imbro

Analyst

Great. That's some helpful color. Maybe shifting to the tariff discussion, Jim, I think you mentioned direct costs are pretty limited, maybe the risk is more on the demand side or the ripple effect. Just curious what you're hearing from your auto customers. I know you're exposed to the big three, but you're plugged into the industry. Like what are you hearing in terms of actual impacts on demand out there, if anything yet?

Jim Zizelman

Analyst

Yes. So, first off, relative to tariffs, maybe I'll speak first to the recent announcements made by the President. We think that that is helpful in general for the automotive industry in that it gives some relief to the automakers. For the auto parts folks, it wasn't too impactful other than the fact that there was an elimination of the stacking of tariffs. There can be multiple ways that tariffs can impact tier ones in the automotive industry, whether it be through steel and aluminum tariffs, the emergency tariffs called IEPA or the direct auto what they call the auto tariffs or the auto two-three-two tariffs. And they can't stack any of those anymore. And before they were all stackable, so it looked a little daunting. That is now gone. And the fact that we have most of our products, as I said in the call, as USMCA-compliant, those are still exempt from tariffs, and at the moment, there is no expiration of that exemption. There's no expiration date that is published. So, we are pretty free from that. Relative to our customers, we've had fairly robust orders actually through the first quarter. And we are now beginning to see some changes in that. But at this point, we would still call it not that significant coming from our customers. But of course, we have a keen eye on that. We are engaged with these guys regular basis. And we would take any mitigating action necessary if those kinds of projected volumes were just start to have some substantive decline.

Daniel Imbro

Analyst

Great. And then, maybe last one -- [multiple speakers]. Yes, that does. That's helpful. If I could squeeze one in the balance sheet, Matt, inventory coming down nicely, continues to drive a working capital benefit for cash flow. I just would love to hear your thoughts around as we return to overall growth in the industry, maybe in 2026 and beyond, I guess, how sustainable are these improvements? Can we continue to grow can we grow revenue with inventory levels? Do we need to add inventories? How should we think about the sustainability of the working capital benefits here?

Matt Horvath

Analyst

Yes, great question, Daniel. This has been one of our focuses obviously the last year. We've been really successful in reducing inventory balance. Like you heard in the prepared remarks, inventory balances have come down almost $30,000,000 over the last year, so really good progress there. But what I would tell you is there's more to go. If you look historically at our inventory turns, we should be at least high single digits. We're kind of mid single digits trending in a good direction now, but we should be high single digits. Some of our facilities have even been over 10 historically, which is I wouldn't say best in class, but certainly better than average for our peer set. So, there's still more work to do there, so I think there's still opportunity to improve inventory even as we grow. And I think it's sustainably improved as well. So when we start growing, I think you'll see inventory turns hold at those levels as we pick up volume. So, still more work to do this year, which obviously we're on a good track with good momentum. And I think that that will be sustainable even as the overall industry returns to growth here as we navigate some of the volatility in the short-term.

Daniel Imbro

Analyst

Great. Thanks for all the detail this morning, and best of luck, guys.

Matt Horvath

Analyst

Thanks, Daniel. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Gary Prestopino with Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning all.

Jim Zizelman

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Hey, Gary.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Matt, can you maybe address issues related to quality-related items. I was looking at what you did in Q4. You had an impact. Was there any real big impact here in this quarter? Or do you think that you've got that situation under control and it shouldn't come out as a one time hit to expenses going forward in any of the quarters, in the remaining quarters in 2025?

A - Matt Horvath

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Yes, Gary, good question. Obviously, quality-related costs is something we've focused on specifically over the last couple of years. We have made a significant amount of progress there. Like you heard in the prepared remarks, both control devices and electronics had a significant improvement over the fourth quarter in their quality-related expenses. Total company was $2,500,000 down in quality-related expenses from quarter to quarter. Those quality-related costs, you're always going to run into issues, right? For us, it's built in quality, which is you're seeing an overall reduction of quality-related expenses, but it's also speed and efficiency in addressing any quality issues that come up. And that's where we've really made a lot of progress. So, we're limiting any of the issues that we have, which are normal in our industry. You've always got some level of quality back and forth, but we've done a really good job limiting those peaks and valleys and building in better quality with our kind of consistent global processes to improve the baseline. So, I don't think anybody would ever tell you you'll never have another quality-related issue. I think we've done a good job of putting processes in place to limit any of those issues that may come up. So, I won't tell you you'll never have a quality-related expense again. Think that would be silly, but I can tell you that the processes we have in place are driving a significant improvement in both the baseline and our response to those issues.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Okay. I mean, so, you can see in the quarter, significant improvement in the quarter here?

Jim Zizelman

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Yes, it's really moving fast on anything that does come up, and it's working just elbows and everyone working hard to drive quality into the product that we're developing and bringing into production. There's got to be a key focus there. There's got to be appropriate processes there that are proactive to eliminate quality before it becomes a problem, either in the plant or in the field. And that's the most important thing, because that puts you at a strong foundation for good quality and being sure that you'll have very, very few big problems in the future. Now, for us, obviously, we've redoubled those efforts, as I said in the call, and we're truly focused on that. We feel very good about what we're doing. But we also have adjusted our processes so that we act with great speed if anything starts to crop up that we have to really go and address.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thank you for that. And then, in terms of what's going on with tariffs, which it'll probably change today somewhat, another major announcement here. With what you're doing in Europe with MirrorEye, is that production of MirrorEye products coming being shipped from The US into Europe or are you able to produce it in Europe as well?

Jim Zizelman

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

No, that's produced in Europe.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Okay. So, and is your tachograph product produced in Europe as well?

Jim Zizelman

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Tachograph is produced in Europe. Yes, sir.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Okay. So, there's no issues there with the tariffs then. Okay. Just a couple of more questions, last quarter, you talked about MirrorEye revenue almost doubling to $120,000,000 this year. Has there been any change in that outlook?

Matt Horvath

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Yes. So, Gary, I would say no change in the outlook right now, but obviously, we're very pleased with the start we've gotten to in the year here. The Volvo program in Europe in particular has had really good volume. We're on a really good track with our existing programs. Like you heard in the prepared remarks, we're really proud of the bus applications, the global bus applications, both really in Europe and overall North America. So, we're making good progress on the aftermarket side, bus and fleet. We're making really good progress and we're seeing good volume on the OE side with launch programs. I think all of that suggests good momentum with the programs that we expect to launch this year in North America and some nice volume there. So, overall, really good start to the year. Obviously, we're still early in the year, but really good start to the year with the things that are already in the market, we're looking forward to our two launches here in North America to continue that trend here as we ramp them up here in the second-half.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then, just lastly, the connected trailer suite of products, still working on that, you still think you're going to be getting some of these out in 2025 followed by significant expansion in 2026?

Jim Zizelman

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Yes, that program is actually going quite well. And a lot of the various trade shows that we go to, including CES and TMC and so forth, we've been really showing further expansion in the capability of connected trailer. So, customers are very excited about that. And in a very small way, we do expect to see some of that here at the very tail end of 2025. More in the evaluation mode by customers, where they're going to have a few here and there where they start to evaluate how deeply they want to go, what kind of features they really want to have on this, but really getting it out there and making use of that Stoner specific connectivity innovation that allows it to be so quickly applicable in the market.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Okay. Can I just get one more in and then I'll jump off?

Jim Zizelman

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Sure.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Mark, you mentioned that, and I've seen these numbers, I mean the IHS numbers are all over the place, at least what I've seen, you know, a lot of these prognosticators have put out a range, and the ranges, the high end is where they were for the year, the low end is their new targeted number. Relative to where the new numbers are in terms of unit production, are you with your assumptions for 2025, are you still below some of those assumptions? I mean, you said you went into the year with very conservative projections, so I'm just trying to get an idea of where you are relative to where maybe some of these new estimates are coming out at.

Matt Horvath

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Yes, Gary, good question. Obviously, there's a lot of volatility, in the production forecast space right now. You know, like Jim said, from our customers' perspective, we're not seeing any real significant short-term impact, you know, variation in production, I would say. We obviously are looking at the range of potential outcomes, and like you mentioned, it's pretty broad. We feel comfortable that with, I would say, we're within that range from our original expectation. Our original expectation wasn't quite as low as the low end of the range is now, but we feel comfortable that even within that range, high to low, we can still maintain the guidance for the full-year. So, obviously nobody's got a crystal ball, like you said, the potential of outcomes here is pretty broad, But we feel very comfortable that we can still fall within our guidance, you know, even within that very broad range.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Zizelman for any closing remarks.

Jim Zizelman

Analyst

Thank you everyone for joining us for the call. I know your time is very important and as always, we truly appreciate your willingness to engage us today. We are operating with an unrelenting focus on our key priorities, driving significant earnings expansion as we grow. We will continue to deliver on our commitments by focusing on long-term strategy, quality improvements and material manufacturing cost reductions, all while maintaining a clear focus on market dynamics and making any necessary mitigating actions. We expect that our performance, along with our unique mix of industry changing product platforms, will continue to drive strong shareholder value. Thanks again, everyone.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.