Earnings Labs

Sasol Limited (SSL)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Mon, Sep 9, 2013

$13.10

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.25%

1 Week

-1.31%

1 Month

-2.47%

vs S&P

-1.25%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us this afternoon for our year-end results presentation. I would also like to welcome those people joining us via teleconference. Our panel this afternoon, on my left is Chief Executive Officer, David Constable, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director Christine Ramon, our Executive Director, Nolitha Fakude; Senior Group Executive, Andre De Ruyter; Senior Group Executive, Giullean Strauss and Group Executive, Bernard Klingenberg. I'd also like to welcome those other members from our GEC sitting in the front row. Your safety and the safety of our employees and contractors is critical to us. So please take notice of the safety instructions. Should we need to evacuate the venue, please leave from the two doors at the rear and Sasol safety Marshalls will meet you outside and will direct you at the steps to either exited number one security reception all through the emergency doors behind the bar which will take you out at Baker Street and Bolton Avenue. In any emergency, please do not use the lift, and also do not pause to pack your things, and please exit immediately. As at all presentations I'd like to remind you about disclaimer and forward-looking statements which you can find on page two of your slide deck, and before I hand over to our CEO.

David Constable

Management

Good day, thanks and good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us for Sasol’s audited yearend results presentation today. This past financial year, the group processed another outstanding all around performance against our safety operation and financial targets, while we acknowledge the tailwinds obviously of macroeconomic success in large part it's due to managing the factors within our control. Our strong results are also testament to the resilience of our strategy where a volatile external environment is going heavily on economic growth, I'd like to acknowledge and thank my Sasol colleagues from around the world, who have again distinguished themselves with their commitment, passion and hard work and I thanks to their resolve as we continue to deliver high level of performance even through often uncertain times. Now, let me as usual start with an overview of what you're going to hear today, first of all we'll highlight our solid full year earnings and then discuss how we are growing sustainably in South Africa and abroad. Next, I'll provide you with a brief overview of our business performance enhancement program, which is going to be driving cost optimization across the Group. Christine will then go into more detail on the financial and operational performance of our businesses and I'll come back up to talk you through Sasol’s current project pipeline, the status there and wrap up this afternoon's session by summarizing our strong investment case. We'll then open it up for any questions. Earlier this year Sasol celebrated 10th anniversary of our listing on the New York Stock Exchange, in 2003 Sasol’s ADR is listed at ZAR10.73 per share on the NYSE, decade later the share prices increased almost five fold to close at ZAR48.41 on this past Friday, over the same period our market capitalization has risen more than…

Christine Ramon

Management

Thank you, David and good afternoon everyone. I am certainly pleased to present (inaudible) excellent results to you today. We’ve delivered record earnings for financial year ‘13 and our reported earnings are at the midpoint of the guided range provided in our recent trading statement and the [heat] of consensus for cost. Before I discussed the results in detail, I would like to note the following three comments. Firstly, our continued focus on operational performance has results in improved plant stability, with Synfuels production performance delivering ahead of our stated target. Secondly, although the operation profit was significantly impacted [financial] charges, a further production performance together with the favorable impact of the average weaker rent on exchange rates has enabled us to deliver record operating profits. And finally our balance sheet remained strong on the back of very strong cash flow generation across our businesses which continuous to position Sasol well to fund our attractive growth projects, to fund our [pervasive] different policy, as well as to provide a buffer for volatility. The past year continued to be characterized by predominantly favorable but volatile macroeconomic environment. Oil and product classes were softer throughout most of the 2013 financial year, although the average rand-dollar exchange rate was about 14% weaker than the prior year. Although the weaker rand-dollar exchange rate was overall positive from an operating profit perspective, it certain contributed to an already challenging cost environment. The chemicals market remained challenging impacted by volatility in global markets. Chemical process continued to soften on the back of weaker demand in downstream markets, coupled with higher feedstock process, the industry wide margins squeeze prevailed. We also see that the average [rand] we have gas prices were higher which is positive for our Canadian shale gas operations, and the oil to gas differential…

David Constable

Management

Thanks, Christine. And behalf of the management team on the Sasol Ltd Board, I want to wish you and [Richie] on the girls all the very best going forward. Okay, just a few more slides here to conclude. Despite persistent turbulence within the global context Sasol's ability to match it in many instances better the performance in the past, demonstrating the resilience has become the company's hallmark. And it's clear that our U.S. growth projects aren't very large and we are fully aware of the importance and the focusing on their successful completion. This being the case the management team embarked upon a thorough review of our entire product portfolio and commence to carefully considered prioritization process. The purpose of this exercise was a simple one to ensure that we advance the right projects that can unlock maximum value for our shareholders over the long-term. Based on our review and particularly the financial and human capital requirements of our various projects as well as our near to longer-term strategic direction, we are being unanimous as the management team as well as the Board to proceed with the FEED work on our U.S. project, thereby prioritizing them over our proposed Canada GTL venture. As part of our capital allocation determination, we give due consideration creating a right balance between investing in the company’s capital for a longer-term benefit and returning cash to the company’s shareholders. Today our strategies are very closely aligned to our product pipeline, as you can see from the side on the screen. To the left, we highlight the five key drivers that comprise our high level strategies, looking for first line accelerate GTL growth; two, we are moving forward on several fronts in Escravos Nigeria, where our third GTL plant is closed to commissioning, in Uzbekistan, where…

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

And if I continue and just ask that the quicker to ones two questions as there are quite of few people that would like to ask questions, and if you could also just introduce yourself, thank you.

Gerhard Engelbrecht - Macquarie

Management

Gerhard Engelbrecht from Macquarie, thanks for the opportunity. There were just a couple of questions, one, maybe can you give us a little bit more [random] thinking on the Uzbekistan decision. I see also now you say that for the project you got (inaudible) 51.1% non-government interest and do you have a buyer and a buyer that can contribute to the capital spending rates; that is the first question. On ORYX you often talk about instantaneous production being higher than 100% yet your production guidance for this year is actually very similar for what you achieve in 2012. So all the improvements that you’ve made ORYX doesn’t really seem to come through introduction. Is it still stop start at ORYX or what exactly is the situation there. And maybe just lastly a financial question; last year you said on provisions that you lowered the discount rate and in Sasol Synfuels there was quite a big increase in provision and now you are talking about the discount rate changing and a release of provisions. Is that something that we can expect every year as interest rates change, and will the earnings be more volatile as a result?

David Constable

Management

Great, thanks for the questions. And we'll start at Uzbekistan GTL and then move to ORYX and the provisions Christine maybe you can handle. Uzbekistan obviously is as I said, remains a great projects, very robust returns there. As we prioritize our portfolio and look at the requirements across the Group from a capital perspective and project execution perspective, and risk perspective obviously, we found it appropriate to take a reduced shareholding there. It's encouraging truly from financing perspective, initial indications are positive, feedback from the lenders is strong and we have a process in place right now, where we are talking to potential new partners, who have quite a bit of interests, it's quite a long list from a number of different countries and to answer your question, yes they will be able to bring CapEx support to the project. Lean anything to add to that?

Giullean Strauss

Management

No, David I think you have covered it well.

David Constable

Management

Okay. ORYX, you can stay on the mic now because as I walked up here today you said 85 is very conservative with ORYX for a guidance, and I think it was at least 85% that we are talking about. In the month of August, we had a run rate of 108%. So barring any challenging shutdown issues at ORYX, I think that 85% is a very conservative number and maybe Lean just there maybe you can comment as well.

Giullean Strauss

Management

As I see, we’ve used the worth exceed 85 (inaudible) given the range, and I think there is upside, significant upside. We are comfortable that we cannot maintain continues operations.

Gerhard Engelbrecht - Macquarie

Management

Are you running continuous (inaudible) than the stop start.

Giullean Strauss

Management

No, no we are in continues

David Constable

Management

So, the last question to answer for [Alex] Christine on the provisions and the discount rates.

Christine Ramon

Management

Yes, so also R1.6 billion positive impact on the release of the provision and that related to 0.5% reduction in the discount rate, but clearly I think one can expect that as interest rates change, one has to within accounting requirement that you actually have to look at the impact on the discount rate and flow through the necessary impact. So I think it's something that you better watch going forward and clearly the rehabilitation provisions relate primarily to Synfuels but there is also the mining business that has some rehabilitation provisions in it as well.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Couple of questions. Just on your labor costs, they were up I think 21%. I just wondered how much of that was currency, how much of it was organic? And then if you look at your share based payments, (inaudible) some 800%, EPS was up 11%, bps 25 and the share price 26%, how do we model what that number is going to be going forward? And then just on the polymers business, I ask this question a lot, but we are looking at what you said in terms of your polymer selling prices, what happened to the Synfuels selling prices and oil prices? There should have been a gap opening up not going either way. So (inaudible) in the ongoing profitability shortfall there and just on that, maybe is there a bit of turnaround in polymer pricing in the last few months. Are you close to breaking even there?

David Constable

Management

Thanks, [Alex]. Let’s start with labor costs and the effect of increased manpower and share based payments, Christine if you could comment?

Christine Ramon

Management

Okay. So you could read that the labor increase in total was about 20.6%. If you want, if one had to look at the impacts of that, clearly inflation was the biggest impact, and you can probably say about 7.5% related to inflation. The next biggest impact is about 7% relating share based payments. And I think followed being by the exchange rate to fixed and up about 3.5%. And then we saw headcount increased, headcount of this coming through of about 1.6% and that mainly related to the acquisition of the outside shareholders interest in Merisol. We did see some smaller increases coming doing businesses like (inaudible), but your biggest increase in the headcount really come through in Merisol business. And obviously, when one increases the headcount, one has to look at the flow through of the increase in headcount and that does relate to employee benefit costs that one has to take into account and there were some growth costs across our businesses as well. In terms of modeling share based payments, I think it is quite a difficult modeling because one can’t anticipate in advance as to what the increase in the share prices actually going to be, but clearly one sees this impact is coming through every six months and I think for me too to give you guidance on modeling, I think it’s a difficult maybe because we have an offline discussion on you got to study all these statements and the accountants and experts executive involved in the full valuation, but we could maybe have an offline discussion on that.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay, thanks. And then polymers, sales volumes up Andre, (inaudible) impairments and the translation losses but maybe you can comment on the profitability of polymers? Thanks.

Andre De Ruyter

Management

As you know and this is becoming a repeat dialogue, I think I have seen this movie before. Fuel products, which is a basis for the transfer pricing out of Synfuels into the Polymer business went up by 11% in rand terms and polymer prices also in rand terms went up by 11%. So you can see there that in spite of polymer prices going up, feedstock prices going up as well and therefore the margins remained very tight. Are we close to breakeven? Our gross margin on Polymer South Africa is still under a lot of pressure. We are addressing those issues that are within our control and that’s as David has referenced why we are implementing a cash fixed cost reduction exercise and that should play out in improving our cash cost position in the polymer business as well as the other businesses. But until such time as we are in a position to reconsider how we allocate profit in the different parts of the value chain, polymer margins will remain depressed unless of course there is an increase in global ethylene utilization rates.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

(Question Inaudible).

Andre De Ruyter

Management

No, I think you need to look -- let’s take it offline, but I don’t think that you can extrapolate quite as linearly as that.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Next question.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Just couple of questions. Firstly numbers that were the idea that you will do high density polyethylene plant in joint venture with INEOS. Is that, it wasn’t clear to me with the cost of that would be incorporated in the ethane cracker, so if you could explain that perhaps and any other further possibilities? The second thing comes to the end, again it’s probably a big question, but kind of this show I guess is costing a lot of money in headline earnings per share and you are spending money on capital and you are still short of your total carry that you set so far [to 2]. What is your proposed scenario, when you can just stop for field development plant, and if and when, what are you going to do after that given that we hear that your joint venture partners in particular keen on one thing? That’s the second question. The third question relates to, the question that my colleague here has thought the utilization rate, just the record, (inaudible) utilization forecast from yourselves ever, a reflection of your uncertainty about the detailed plant at ORYX? Thank you.

David Constable

Management

Yes, as everyone is aware, we signed an MOU with INEOS on the high density polyethylene units in the U.S. It is not part of the ethane crack profit, it’s the separate product that will be taken on and run by INEOS. They are taking the project and executing. It’s a 470,000 ton per year plant of HDPE, of course 235,000 tons to Sasol and that will be starting up in the second half of calendar year '15, so some more volumes for us to talk about Sasol before the cracker comes online. So I think that is very good. I think, Andre anything else, that is okay. Shale gas, field development plant, Giullean can you take that one?

Giullean Strauss

Management

Thank you. Maybe just to say that, I think if you follow our partners’ announcement, that they have withdrawal Montney from their sales to the market, they are going to continue to develop with us, there is other assets they are selling in Canada, but they are not selling Montney anymore. But they will be challenge with at least with low gas price, I mean that doesn't make sense for us to develop gas prices (inaudible) range. I think we are going to long way with the risking, I think we satisfied that we now understand the field, we drilled just about 130 wells now. And I think from next year our approach would be more to drill economic wells, to drill those wells that we can drill on the economic basis rather than just to some derisking, although we haven't done derisking on site per say and that’s starting this part of the year and also next year, we're going to do exploration work in Montney, our inside per say. Our prognosis is that long term gas prices will continue to increase and that will be very economical for us to develop the field. We are still confident that we will achieve overall rights that we will in terms of the investment that we expect. What is very encouraging is decreasing in drilling cost, the drilling cost is now well below what we have expected in our recent scenarios. We have now drilled wells that are less than a $1 million, a $1 million less than we anticipated. So I think the economies are going to improve significantly. As far as ORYX is concerned, yeah, I think we've used the [word] that exceeds and I think we will exceed this by a significant margin, but we would like to prove that, we haven't run for 12 consecutive months. I think also the shutdown the operations have been very stable. We have exceeded design significantly and watch this space, I think we will give you a nice number come March next year.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Questions? A couple of more minutes.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

The next question is from Investec. Just a couple of questions I will keep it brief. Just in terms of your sustaining capital or CapEx, sorry should I say, it's got up from $12 billion to $17 billion this year, and if I look in your projections on that slide, looks like the inflation rate you are using to 2015 is around 5%. Not a lot [outside] risk given your 2015 policy and also I just like to know if there is any capital allowance and therefore (inaudible) which I should say will be coming soon. Then one last question, this for Christine. You mentioned, you are starting to capitalize some of the SSI funding cost. How could we model that going forward? It’s around about a billion, last year it was a billion as well, somewhere around there. Can we see that going to zero or is it just kind of stay around those kind of level. Thank you.

David Constable

Management

Thanks. Sasol’s CapEx, Bernard, are you okay with that one and also talk about 2015, when that starts to come in to play on our CapEx gross?

Bernard Klingenberg

Management

Thanks, David. Joe, I think, let me start with the clean fuels. We have the clean fuels in our earning capital plant. I think R11.6 billion or R11.7 billion over the next few years. So that certainly features. In terms of the rest of the sustainability capital, we have made provisions for some of the cost coming through in the environmental space. Not everything that’s envisioned, because we do think that our strategy was governed around the [air] quality space will be successful. And then with respect to 2050, we are still doing the work to confirm the numbers that will be required, but we are quite confident that the capital spend levels that we’ve got in our rolling capital plan will be sufficient going forward but they are still somewhere beneath going in that area.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thanks, Barnard and then on the cracker and the growth cost getting capitalized Christine, can you give us the timeframe.

Christine Ramon

Management

So from what I see it was that the FEED cost in future will actually be capitalized. So within the past year you’ve actually seen that for US GTL we’ve actually had two expense cost. In future you can expect to see lower growth costs coming through in SSI and so in future the FEED cost will actually be capitalized and that’s been regarded as part of the total capital investment program than for was Uzbekistan and US GTL. So we’ve put our previous guidance with respect to numbers there. I think probably just to clarify on the [sustenance] related capital because we’ve only given two year forecast even though Bernard has spoken to the total clean fields number. For the next two years and for financial ‘14, we’ve included about a R1 billion and for financial ‘15 it is about R2 billion for [clean fuels] too. Our [continued] debt impacted the weaker rand-dollar exchange rate, but as you know on imported components, (inaudible) so we have to actually factor in the weakening of the rand and the rand is currently both a lot weaker than what we even factored in the impact on these numbers and so clearly we will have to review that and type out appropriate [hedging] ones [recent] decisions are made.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay thanks Christine.

Operator

Operator

If we can take the last question on the telephone, there’s one on the telephone.

Unidentified Speaker

Management

(inaudible) Deutsche Bank, please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Good morning thanks guys. Just my question on (inaudible) in Nigeria, as the (inaudible) start to commission. What are I guess the right set of applications with Sasol and where are we seeing the impact of your income is coming through and they still have six months period or 12 months period, what should we hear or not hear from you guys in regards to that ramping?

David Constable

Management

Okay, easy to you Lean December 2013.

Giullean Strauss

Management

Yes, we are still on track to commission the plant and to have beneficial operation in December. Obviously the first couple of cargoes, we still have to get the product on spec, but everything is on track beneficial operation the first product to market in December. I think full operations at around the second quarter of next year, but everything is on track, things are going actually very well at this time.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Are there any I guess operational hurdles that Sasol undertake and is responsible for?

David Constable

Management

Yes, we have been major party in commissioning the plant. We currently have about 70 Sasol colleagues at the plant and is quite integral part of the commissioning of the plant.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Should we take one last question?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Okay. One from the floor and then we will close up.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

(Inaudible) Barclays Africa. Can you comment on the process and timing in terms of finding your next CFO? And also just on the dividend, you explained your dividend policy going forward, but when you look at (inaudible) check of how covered and dividends are by earnings, do you look at it on a headline basis or basic basis?

David Constable

Management

Next CFO, like I said, we have got because of our challenge in the finance division, we have been able to name an acting CFO with great experience institutional knowledge from one of our most complex business in Synfuels and spent some good amount of time here corporate now with the numbers. So very comfortable that gives us a lot of flexibility and we don’t need to rush in, in any decision making, but we will be looking for candidates both internally and externally, looking in South Africa and outside South Africa and taking good look and find best candidate for Sasol and put someone into again is in the best interest of the company timing wise. It’s going to be some time next year is in the near to medium term. And then on dividend policy and the cover and (inaudible)?

Christine Ramon

Management

Yeah, so the progressive dividend policy is determined on the earnings per share number and we do either take full cost into account as well as how to pick final numbers. We purposefully moved away from the dividend cover. So I think quite importantly is the progressive dividend is to maintain growth dividends into the future (inaudible) rent and it’s been in the dividend and we certainly seek to remain competitive with our peer group as we increase our dividends going forward. I think clearly as we stated in the past should the earnings decline, they even underpin the dividend.

David Constable

Management

Great. Thanks, everyone. Look forward to see you on the road shows and answering more detailed questions in our one-on-ones and our lunches and till the next time please stay safe. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today’s Sasol yearend financial results conference call. Thank you for your participation.