Earnings Labs

Sasol Limited (SSL)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 23, 2022

$13.10

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the presentation of Sasol Limited's Annual Results for Financial Year 2022. Thank you for joining us today. Our speakers today are Fleetwood Grobler, President and CEO of Sasol and Hanré Rossouw, Sasol's Chief Financial Officer. In today's presentation, Fleetwood will cover the business performance for the financial year, which also includes an update of our ESG progress and milestones. The financial performance will be covered in more detail by Hanré with Fleetwood concluding with a brief update on our future Sasol aspiration. You will then have an opportunity to ask your questions in our Q&A session, which commences immediately afterwards. Before we begin, I'd like to refer you to our disclaimer which is summarized on the slide. This contains important information regarding forward-looking statements that are made in this presentation. Please have a look at it in your own time.

Fleetwood Grobler

Management

Good day, everyone, and welcome to our 2022 financial results update. In the last two years, we have faced multiple challenges both in South Africa and abroad. The outbreak of COVID significantly impacted the global economy and the world is still adjusting to major supply chain disruptions. The war in Ukraine now entering its six months has caused enormous upheaval in global energy markets, along with a devastating toll on human life. Inflation is soaring across the globe and recessionary concerns are rising. In South Africa, the civil unrest of July 21 and more recently, the torrential rainstorms in April this year, largely concentrated in KwaZulu-Natal affected our ability to export products and disrupted our operations. Notwithstanding this backdrop, we remain focused on meeting our short-term targets, while recording progress on future Sasol aspirations. In this period, we were successful to significantly strengthen our balance sheet through well-executed response measures without the need for the rights issue. We completed our strategy late, accelerated asset divestment program. And today, I am pleased to announce the reinstatement of our dividends to our shareholders. As in the past years, team Sasol stepped out and delivered in a challenging operating environment. And I express my sincere appreciation for our people's continued diligence, commitment and support. I also want to thank the Board of Sasol for its continued guidance and support as we take significant strides to a more competitive and sustainable future Sasol. In recent years, we framed our strategy to the triple bottom line focus of people, planet and profit. Sound ESG performance is fundamental to our business and integral to the delivery of future Sasol goals. Within this framework, I will start my presentation by providing a high-level review of financial year '22. Maintaining safe operations is our primary focus, particularly considering…

Fleetwood Grobler

Management

Thank you, Hanré. As we look to conclude the presentation of our year-end results, I will now shift the focus to future Sasol. As we accelerate plans to meet our 2030 GHG reduction target, we built the foundation for achieving our 2015 net zero ambition. In this regard, we continue to progress the techno economic studies on the pathways considered for 2050 with more detail being developed. Our GHG emission reductions will be achieved through transformational pathways that could also include conscious decisions to cut back production in parts of the business. We could, for instance, see our Secunda production slate shifting fundamentally beyond 2030, depending on demand profiles for energy products in the longer term. We are also playing a leading role in coastal green hydrogen export through the Boegoebaai opportunity. Through a memorandum of agreement with the Northern Cape Development Agency, we are leading the prefeasibility study to explore the potential of Boegoebaai as an export hub. Sasol ecoFT, which aims to provide sustainable aviation fuels or SAF and related feedstocks for chemicals, using our own proven Fischer Tropsch technology has seen significant interest in the recent period. SAF remains one of the most promising pathways for the hard-to-abate aviation sector to decarbonize in future. The SAF drop-in offering is [Technical Difficulty] Our sincere apologies for this power failure we experienced, I think we need more renewable energy earlier. Let me continue. The SAF drop-in offering is an attractive aviation fuel solution and the market is expected to grow massively in the years to come. We are refining our go-to-market strategy and entered into multiple collaboration agreements with venture partners, feedstock suppliers, aircraft manufacturers and other service providers to firmly position Sasol within the developing SAF market. The Lake Charles ramp-up continues to be a focus area in…

A - Tiffany Sydow

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the question-and-answer session related to Sasol's financial results announcement this morning. My name is Tiffany, and I'll be facilitating the question-and-answer session today. With us in the room, we have Fleetwood Grobler and Hanré Rossouw. And on my right, we have the rest of the Sasol executive management team. Welcome to the session. Your questions can be posted online on the right-hand side of your screen, you should see a dialogue box where you can input your question. Please submit any questions you have via this. Alternatively, you can also dial in to Chorus Call and verbalize your question today. I'll be switching between the two during the session to ensure that all questions are adequately addressed. Turning to our first question for the day. Excited by Sasol's initiative to start a venture fund. Is there a capital target for the venture? And by when will the ventures start operating from [indiscernible] at NPV Investments. Hanré, over to you. Hanré Rossouw: Thanks, Tiffany. I share the excitement. I think the venture capital fund that we are targeting gives us the ability to innovate also outside of Sasol, and I think it links nicely to the research and technology work that we do. I'm going to keep you in suspense. We are hoping to launch that later this year. We're finalizing the funding and governance aspects of that, but hopefully share some more news on that before the end of the year.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thank you, Hanré. I think sticking with the theme of financial results. Could you please shed some light on your oil price hedging strategy, given the risk that oil prices could come down in the event of a global recession from Richard Middleton at Excelsia Capital. And I think if we can go in to the next question as well, what would be the criteria for Sasol to consider a blend of share buybacks and dividends going forward from baking [indiscernible] at Bateleur Capital? Hanré Rossouw: Thanks, Tiffany. I think the overarching aspect for both questions are the capital allocation framework and risk management structure that we have. And I've got to first just declare my personal allergies to hedging. I think it's important to not look at hedging in isolation, but important as part of a broader risk management aspect of the business. To that extent, we had excessive hedging, you could say. And then the need for hedging given our previous significant debt on the balance sheet, if we go back to 2020, we had over ZAR 10 billion of debt. And at that stage, we had around the 70% cover of our oil production. Given the significant reduction in gearing, operational gearing has also improved. We now see a lower need for gearing or for hedging rather. And we've reduced the hedge cover of oil to around 45% for the 2024 financial year. And that also now has a slight change in approach where previously, we used the zero cost collars, we are now using more put options, really just to buy the downside protection in the event of a severe drop in oil prices, which could come from a global recession. In terms of buybacks and dividends, again, we referenced the capital allocation framework. And really, thereafter the allocation of capital to maintain and transform and paying the base dividend, the excess cash then will either going to growth capital, as I mentioned, both inorganic or organic or be returned to shareholders. And to that extent, we're happy to consider both buybacks and special dividends. We've not given any guidance yet on the balance of buyback and dividends through which we will consider, but we will consider that given the specific circumstances at that time.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thanks, Hanré. I think moving over to operational and business outlook questions. I'm going to direct these next two questions to Fleetwood. The mining productivity guidance of 1,000 to 1,100 tonnes per CM per shift is well below my understanding of targeted levels of 1,200 to 1,300 tonnes per CM per shift. What is constraining the ramp-up in mining activity and that comes from Wade Napier at Avior? And the second question around LCCP, what was the capacity utilization at LCCP during FY '22. What will normal capacity utilization be? And when do you expect to reach the systems from Victor Seanie at Benguela Global?

Fleetwood Grobler

Management

Yeah. Thank you, Tiffany. Thank you, Wade, for the question. So let me just position first that our mining productivity guidance that we've given at half year-end, that was attained through the second half of the year. And our outlook now is building on that guidance. So I think what is underpinning our targeted mining productivity improvement is, first of all, our safety remediation program. So that is the bedrock of our mining operation. And so I would be loath to indicate any higher numbers before we haven't solidified our safety foundation and that remediation program. And it's also about you can't mixed signals to your mine workforce to say what is now the priority? Is it now first safety recovery? Or is it production productivity? And so I think the message is clear. We're going to remediate the safety, we're going to set the realistic targets where we can build from over the last six months delivery, built from that going forward, but in a very measured way, making sure that safety is the primary focus during that ramp-up of productivity. As far as the second question with respect to the capacity utilization of LCCP in the past year, I think from the outset, we have made it very clear that the different sections of the plant will see different ramp-up targets. So we are clear that our base chemicals portion of the 50% that we remain have - that we are owning now as a result of the divestment. That one is is more a commodity business and the ramp-up, of course, will be through the three years period, which is now being attained through that. And so there is a capacity utilization of 90% plus in the various units. I won't go into the details. And we…

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thank you, Fleetwood. There are a few questions that are queued via Corus Call. If I could move over to the operator, please, and perhaps we can start with the first two, Gerhard Engelbrecht from Absa and then moving on to Adrian Hammond from SBG.

Operator

Operator

Of course.

Gerhard Engelbrecht

Analyst

Good morning. Is the line open? I hope you can hear me.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Yes, we can. Gerhard go ahead.

Gerhard Engelbrecht

Analyst

Thank you. It's nice to, as you say, verbalize questions again. Thank you for that. I got three questions, if I may. The Synfuels production, I mean, let me start saying that in FY '19, you had a 2-phase shutdown that you were producing at 7.6 million tonnes. So the Synfuels production guidance is way below weighted over 7 million to 7.2 million tonnes. Why so low? Is it just because of the coal quality? And when do you expect in Synfuels to be producing at optimal levels again? I guess that the first question. Can you give us more detail on your procurement of LNG, the world of LNG has changed significantly since Russia invaded Ukraine. How are you progressing. And can you give us a sequence and timing of events that that needs to happen in terms of FIDs on the Synfuels additional need performance, the building of the recast [ph] or construction of the recast facilities, et cetera. And then just the last question. You increased your assumptions for RAND oil [ph] your long-term assumptions that looks in the AFS by about 40%, yet your fuel producing businesses remain impaired. Does it mean you've included additional negative items to offset the increase in the long-term assumptions or why have not reverse those impairments? Thank you.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thank you, Gerard. Fleetwood, if you could start with the first two questions.

Fleetwood Grobler

Management

Yeah. Thank you, Gerard. So the three questions. I will commence with the first two, and I'll also ask Simon and Priscillah to weigh in on that. And I think Hanré can deal with the last question then. So first of all, the guidance that we've given for the Synfuels volume output is informed by a number of areas. First, we are recovering from our previous year. And as I mentioned, with the mining productivity, we are on a trajectory to improve. And so the guidance must be see in that light that it's realistic building up on a volume base going forward. And so that's the one aspect. The second aspect, which is the full shutdown, as well as a phase shutdown that we have this in Secunda. That's a rent that's almost every 5 years, but that adds an additional limitation on volume output in Secunda. So I will ask that Simon also weigh into that. And then as far as the LNG goes in terms of the progression and where we stand. Let me ask Priscillah to weigh in first over to Simon and then takes the gas question, Priscillah please.

Simon Baloyi

Analyst

Thank you Fleetwood. Good morning. It seems like every time we speak, myself and you we speak about the total shutdown. So remember a day where we were in Secunda and we had to put 4 bottles of water and we're demonstrating how to do face and a total shutdown. So you indeed correct this year, our guidance is related to that, we will be taking a phase total shutdown, which starts, coincidentally, this Friday. And that will go on until around the 24th of September, the total portion of the shutdown should come back around 12 to 14 days. And then I think that guides how we then sing around 100 to 200 kiloton less. And then as you know, when we started the Murray [ph] campaign for FY '22, and pushing off '23, we did give guidance that we don't have as much gas as we would like to have. So that also does have an impact of around 100 to 150 kilotons. So taking all of that into consideration, I suppose, post FY '24, we should be retaining during the face times to around 7.6. And when you have a total shutdown will still remain between 7.5.

Fleetwood Grobler

Management

Thank you. Priscillah?

Priscillah Mabelane

Analyst

Thank you. Hello, thanks for the question. So perhaps before I get into LNG, it's appropriate to just give an overview of where we are overall, and I guess sourcing strategy because it's actually a portfolio of both our exploration and development projects, as well as LNG. And it's quite important as we move forward that we actually balance the two. So we are actually making good progress in terms of our overall portfolio you've seen today. Earlier on, we've announced the extension of the plateau to 2028. At the back of that it gives us flexibility in terms of how we bring LNG on board, yet at the same time maximizing the exploration and development of quite a few of our projects that we are already working on. In terms of LNG, we are targeting to finalize the term sheet by end of this year. Again, it's quite important that we reach the right commercial terms before we commit ourselves. We are in intense discussions and negotiations with our partners that will enable us to probably take about six months or eight months to complete and finalize the FID so that we can start with the construction. We are also discussing timing with them, particularly given the fact that we've got now two more years flexibility. So the original timeline was Bo of 2026 and we would like to create some flexibility as we engage going forward. What is more critical for us is to ensure that the infrastructure in Maputo [ph] actually built more than the actual contracting of the molecules. Hopefully that gives you a good clarity of where we are. Hanré Rossouw: Thanks and if I can jump in then,, just on the on the impairment or your question around whether the stronger oil prices in…

Fleetwood Grobler

Management

Thank you, Chris. I'm going to ask Brad to weigh in on that. Suffice to say that we have got a number of different, you know, situations from north to south Germany and to Augusta and southern part of Italy and Sicily. Because the sources of gases different one - one is supported from Africa, the others are dependent on Russian gas. But none notwithstanding, I think we've got a very clear understanding of the levers that we need to watch out for. And I'm going to ask Brad to weigh in on that.

Brad Griffith

Analyst

Yes, happy to do that. Thank you for the question, Chris. As Fleetwood said, we've got a task team working on our response to the reduced gas supply as our do all of our industry partners in the region. As for Italy, let's start there. First, I think we're well placed to be able to continue our operations we have the portfolio of gas supplies, as well as liquid fuel options to be able to continue those operations. In Maril, our large site in central Germany is actually fed by our host company Evonik. They've announced publicly that they're intending to restart their coal fired power station and steam generation as well as switch some of their natural gas consumption over to LPG in line with the government's guidance on the on the gas network. For Brownsville, we do have options as well, we've been working on liquid fuel choices. One of the unique things about the principle site is that we also provide heating, Steam, low pressure steam to the community of principle. So we're expecting to be able to continue to receive natural gas to some degree there. I think if you look at some of the latest public information from the German government, they do sit at a higher level of storage than what they normally would be. That's obviously a concern whether they continue to build that up for the winter. And we all continue to monitor that. In terms of your questions on margins. Certainly margins are under pressure. If you look at daily gas prices, it does put pressure on some of our operations that are large gas consumers. And so we work with our customers to see what can be done to be able to pass that on. And we're making choices as Fleetwood mentioned earlier on alternative energy supplies, but also looking at alternative sources of feedstocks, and where necessary, we will moderate rates and that's why we gave guidance for fiscal 23. That was a bit wider than usual showing zero to 5%. Because if we continue to see the pressure on gas, then we potentially would be making some choices on how much volume we produce.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thank you, Brad. I'm going to switch back over to the online platform. There are a few number of questions coming through on the operational theme. There are a few questions around Mozambique gas or cluster those together. The first one comes from Adrian Hammond at SPG. If the plateau is extended To 2028 why is LNG so needed by 2026? Synfuelds volumes were historically six, seven point 67.8 That SASOL envisaged return to this level, I think some of that has already been covered by Simon. What is the current bottleneck? And then also on gas? There's another question from cm [indiscernible] how he thought addressing the sharply declining gas reserves in Mozambique and what solutions have you looked at and how much CapEx is expected to be spent? Are these enough to fulfill Salsol needs while the company transitions to green hydrogen fleet? Good if we could address that.

Fleetwood Grobler

Management

Thank you, Tiffany. And I think we have basically addressed the gas play in Mozambique. Priscilla has touched on that. So I can only add to say that, you know, we would continue our efforts to look at what are the opportunities in our near fields that we operate and within our field, so we had very good success with this info well drilling campaign. So we excited about that. And that that informed also the extension of the plateau. And so we will do more work and more drilling. And in that regard. Moreover, we are busy with a psi implementation project. And that will also assist us to think about is there any excess gas that can be committed beyond the need for the Mozambican in country power station, that would be the first taker of the volume of gas over the period that was committed. But we also know that if we have more gas, we we've got an opportunity to bring that gas to South Africa, and we are busy finalizing all of those agreements with the Mozambican government, but they are willing to help us out on that basis. But I think, you know, the options of gas is a key focus for the energy team. And Priscilla has indicated that they want to create optionality to not only think about our own fuels, but also the LNG and other adjacencies that we may be harvesting in our own area. So I think that that is a good, good summary, I think of where we are.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thank you fleeted. I think the next question comes around the current [indiscernible] gas prices, any challenges in enforcing the current NASA maximum gas price that suggests prices could be more than 90% higher?

Fleetwood Grobler

Management

I think the situation was no sound. Thank you, Herbert. We have been engaging with nurses since the first quarter of this year, to finalize within the framework of the maximum gas pricing mechanism to come through on a on a price that would be realistic in today's environment, given that the maximum gas price would have been 270 Rand per Giga joule. But we did not think that is realistic. We have proposed a different price level we've engaged with NASA. And at this point in time, we haven't finalized that with NASA, we have indicated that we will not implement this price announcement that we mentioned in August. And we would like to resolve that with NASA. Because in the end, that is what they have to assess is the rationality test for a realistic price. And that we will then once we've come to that agreement, we will take that forward with our customers. And I can only say our customers and Sasol are both in all honesty waiting for that engagement so that we've got certainty of what the rest of the year would hold in within the agreed pricing framework. That was agreed already last year with no sir.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thank you, Fleetwood. Another question from Hubbard Caribbean on the impact on mining productivity higher than average rainfall is expected this summer, could we see more of the same or lower productivity in mining and consequently Synfuels? Is this unavoidable without contingencies in place?

Fleetwood Grobler

Management

Yep. Thank you. Thank you for that question. I think first of all, we have indicated that one of our mitigation levers to have a writable coal supply is our stockpile level. Now, in the last year, this time, our stockpile level was not in a very healthy level. And when the rainy season started, that exacerbated our ability to maintain stockpile level. I think this year we've got a very different approach. We will maintain our stockpile level well above the 1.5 million tonnes. As a matter of fact, as we go now into the Synfuels shut down there Simon referred to that will last us to the end of on the last week of September, we will make a by increasing the coal mining to the stockpile, so that we bolster that 1.5, maybe to a range of two to two and a half million tonnes or beyond. So that when we enter into the rainy season, that we've got more security through stockpile measures, and that we can mitigate that event.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thank you, Fleetwood. A couple of financial questions coming in Hanré, we can set the first one from Adrian can settle rich investment grade credit ratings, and detach from the sovereign rating. And then I think another question on the CapEx outlook from also from Adrian, what is the group CapEx outlook in nominal terms for 24, 25, please, and what is the future hedging ratio we can expect? Hanré Rossouw: Thanks to the in terms of investment grade ratings, unfortunately, at the moment, the rating agencies does tassels raking to the sovereign. And unless there's a significant increase in offshore profits in the region of 50% plus, unfortunately, the sovereign, its sovereign grade credit rating will always be the ceiling for the company. And we've been engaging with the with the various rating agencies on that. But unfortunately, that is that's just how things work at the moment. In terms of group CapEx outlook, in nominal terms, I think you can safely apply a get a four 5% inflation impact to the 20 to 25 guidance. We are very comfortable that the kind of next year that I've mentioned, we will be in line with that guidance. And so certainly 2425 as well, it will cover not only the sustaining of our business, but also the transformation needed the 15 to 25 billion rand that we've got to spend to 2030 to meet up our greenhouse gas targets. And the hedging I think in terms of hedging. As I've mentioned, the hedging does cTOome down to around 25% for financial year 24 In terms of oil, and it will continue to continuously reassess that level. I think it as I've mentioned earlier, it's a function of the operational gearing that we expect in the business. The financial gearing is particularly around our absolute and net debt level. And we will do detailed Monte Carlo analysis of sensitivity to the various outcomes that relates not only to oil, but also more, more particularly on the RAND Rand dollar exchange rate as well, as well as Ethan and on coal. But in general, given the stronger balance sheets have mentioned, we do expect the hedging levels to be more around the lower levels that we've seen ’24.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thank you, Hanré. And while you are on the mic, another two questions around debt. One comes from Adrian Hammond again at SPG. Ken Cecil, a sorry, what is the group? Sorry, I've already covered that one. The debt profile comes from stellar credit Pockys. The debt profile shows a spike of 2.8 billion in FY 24. Could you give me your current thoughts and on future funding and refinancing strategy? Do you plan new bank loans or visit to the bond market as part of the strategy?

Fleetwood Grobler

Management

Thanks. Thanks, Tiffany. So I think in terms of, and this is where I'd love to take credit for the fixing of the balance sheet. But I said I'll not take credit for anything today. But the balance sheet isn't very rude health. I think, as we've mentioned, we've got a net debt level at a period of 3.8 billion US dollars. On a gross debt level, we had six, just over 6 billion US dollars. Effectively, all of our debt is US dollars. So in terms of refinancing strategy, the key focus is to shift more of that US dollar debt into Rand denominated debt that will better match up our cash. The cash generation. In terms of refinancing, yes, we've got 2.8 billion in financial year 24. That relates to a term loan and a US denominated bond. And then we also have in November this year, another billion dollar bond that needs to be refinanced. We're very comfortable that there's a range of options to refinance that we've got the RCA facility that we can very comfortably use as a bridge we can use existing cash flows. And then we'll look at other instruments as well as alternatives. So not losing sleep, luckily at the start of this farm on the balance sheet, thanks for that question.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thanks, Hanré. I'm going to move back to Chorus call and take two questions from Alex Coma and session Lanka. Operator, can you direct a question? Please?

Operator

Operator

Alex, your line is life? Q – Unidentified Analyst: Yes. I've got a couple of questions. First of all, just on this gas LNG situation with the LNG prices is very high at the moment - at the moment. Is there a point at which you decide not to go down that route? And just cut to kind of production to make your 30% target? Or are you determined to go ahead, regardless of the economics? First question. Secondly, just on that track, I see on your presentation, you talked about turning just to a green refinery. So its decision been made to keep them open and what level of CapEx will be required in order to meet the new fuel regs. And then my final question is in terms of the dividend, the 2.5 to 2.8 times cover, how should we think about the levers to pull back down to the lower cover ratio? Thanks.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thank you, Hanré if you could address that. Hanré Rossouw: Let's start with the dividend. As we've highlighted the capital allocation framework incorporates our dividend policy, which relates to a 2.5 to 2.8 times cover of Core HIPS. I think important perhaps just to note that Core HIPS excludes any funnies that excludes any hedging, hedging losses or gains. So we make sure that the - that the investors get the full the full benefit of the of the cash generation of the core business. To that extent, we said that will - will go to 2.5% or 2.5 times cover, if the net debt levels dropped to below $4 billion in absolute terms, we briefly, we've obviously hit that now briefly at the period end. But we will, we will want to see that sustained throughout a period to lower that cover from the 2.8 to 2.5. Beyond that, as I've mentioned, we will also return excess cash to shareholders through metrics who aspects such as special dividends or buybacks.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thank you, Hanré.

Fleetwood Grobler

Management

Thank you, Alex. So I'm going to address the nitric question. And I'm going to ask Priscilla to weigh in on the LNG options that we look at. So, Alex, I believe we have announced probably a couple of years ago, what is the capital requirement for getting NATEF clean fuel compliant, which was I if I recall, I'm not sure it was for 4 billion plus, at that time arrange we given arrange to the market. Now we have achieved two things in the pre feasibility study and operational review with our partner TotalEnergies, first of all, we have come up with a very creative way to get nitric output clean fuel compliant on diesel for a very low investment. And I think this is I'm not going to mention the amount but it is within the operational expense rehomes that you can achieve that and that we will then be ready for by towards in '23. That means in next year, and on the petrol side and jet on the on the team fields there. That is a solution that we are looking at. And I'm not going to give you the price, or the cost range today because it's a pre feasibility type of quality that we busy with, but all I can say that it is substantially lower than the previous Clean Fuels cost. Okay, CapEx that we've signaled to the market. And we will come back hopefully within the next six months to get further clarity on that specific amount.

Tiffany Sydow

Analyst

Thanks, Fleetwood. Alex, good question. The simple answer is no. We want to it at all costs. But having said that, let me elaborate a bit. We are looking at a portfolio. As I've mentioned, we are targeting a blended price of gas going forward, which needs to break even with 10 down solutions, we do recognize that there will be some dilution, but we caught critical for us that we continue to deliver the right return to our shareholders. So that balance is going to be quite critical. So that's what we're working towards. We also mindful for the South African Inc, as well, because there are industries that are going to require guests going forward. So we're hoping that there will be a predictable regulatory framework that ensures that of September. The 2% of the shutdown will come back around, I mean, 12 to 14 days. And then I think that how we see around 100 to 200 kilotons less. And then as you know, when we started the Meryamin for and a portion of 23, we do give guidance that we don't have as much gas as we would like to have. So that also does have an impact of around 100 to 150 kilotons. So taking into consideration, I suppose, post FY '24, which will be retaining during the phase time to around 7.6%. And we have a total chart done will still remain between 7.5 billion.

Priscillah Mabelane

Analyst

Question. So perhaps before getting to LNG, it's appropriate to just give an overview of what we are overall gas strategy because it's actually a portfolio of course, our exploration and development teas well as LNG and important as we move forward that we actually balance the 2. So we are actually making good progress in terms of our overall portfolio you've seen today earlier on, we've announced the expansion of the power to 2028. At the back of that us flexibility in terms of how we bring LNG on board, yet at the same time, maximizing the ratio and development of quite a few of our projects that we are already working on. In terms of LNG, we are targeting to finalize the term sheet by end of this year. Again, it's quite important that we reach the right commercial terms before we commit ourselves. We're discussions and negotiations with our partners. That will enable us to probably take about months or 8 months to complete and finalize the FID so that we can start with the construction. We are also discussing timing with them, particularly given the fact that we've got now 2 more years flexibility. So the original time line was 2026, and we would like to create some flexibility as we engage going forward. What is more critical for us is to ensure that the infrastructure in Maputo is actually built more the actual contracting of the molecules. Hopefully, that gives you a good clarity of where we are

Fleetwood Grobler

Management

If I can jump in then just on the impairment or to your question around whether the stronger oil prices in the assumptions could not have led to a reversal impairment. -- there's detailed disclosure on the impairment assumptions in Note 9 of the annual financial statements. And you're absolutely spot on that we did, of course, increase oil assumptions on the back of what could be short-term tightening of the world market -- so in terms of our assessment of the carrying value of our assets, we did have to take into account that this could not this potentially wasn't a structural change that could be long lived. And it's also offset then by other assumptions that have had a negative impact on the valuation. And I think to that extent, we've highlighted carbon tax and the also now as a measure that could attract value on that carrying value. So on the basis of sensitivities. We've assessed that and got to the conclusion that there's no need at this point to reverse impairments. But of course, we'll continue to do the assessment on an annual basis. Hanré Rossouw: Thank you, Andre. Sticking with Chorus Call, I think we had Adrian Hammond next in line. Adrian, please go ahead.

Priscillah Mabelane

Analyst

Unfortunately, Adrian's line has dropped. Great. Can we move to Chris Nicholson, please? The call in person again. I hope you can hear me. My question is around the European chemical business. I'm sure as many are pretty worried about what's happening in the European gas markets can. Could you tell me what happens if Germany moves to Stage 3? What would the impact be on your European chemical businesses in Germany and Italy in Germany and the Pacific. And then also maybe just some guidance on where you see margins heading in that business. I mean if we look from the scale of feedstock cost increases that they could be hitting negative. What are your options in that instance?

Priscillah Mabelane

Analyst

Thank you, Chris. I'm going to ask Brad to weigh in on that. Suffice that we have got a number of different situations from North to South Germany and to Augusta and southern part of Italy and Sicily because the sources of gas is different. One is supported from rate others are dependent on the Russian gas. But notwithstanding, I think we've got a very clear understanding of the levers that we need to watch out for. And I'm going to ask Brad to weigh in on that. Speaker 11 Guys, Happy to do that. Thank you for the question, Chris. As Sehat said, we've got a task team working on our response to reduced gas supply as to all of our industry partners in the region. As for Italy, let's start there first. I think we're well placed to be able to continue our operations. We have the portfolio of gas supplies. -- as well as liquid fuel options to be able to continue those operations. In Marel, our large site in Central Germany is actually fed by our host company, Evonik. They've announced publicly that they're intending to their coal-fired power station and steam generation as well as switch some of their natural gas consumption over to LPG in line with the government guidance on the gas network. For Brunsbuttel, we do have options as well. We've been working on liquid fuel choices. One of the unique things about the Brunsbuttel side is that we also provide heating steam, low-pressure steam to the community of in we're expecting to be able to continue to receive natural gas to some degree there. I think if you look at some of the latest public information from the German government, they do sit at a higher level of storage than what…