Earnings Labs

S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 27, 2009

$43.79

-1.44%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+6.00%

1 Week

-2.28%

1 Month

-13.86%

vs S&P

-1.32%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Stewart Capital Advisors fourth quarter 2008 market update and outlook. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Malcolm Polley, President of Stewart Capital Advisors, LLC. Thank you Mr. Polley, you may begin.

Malcolm E. Polley

Management

Good morning and thanks everybody for joining us on the fourth quarter conference call to talk about what happened in 2008. And I apologize in advance if I yawn a little bit. It’s because my son got a puppy yesterday, and it kept me up a good chunk of the night. As I was quoted in our local Indiana paper yesterday, saying that 2008 was a difficult year, was about like saying Hurricane Katrina was a stiff breeze. It wasn’t a fun year for a lot of people, and what we’re going to talk about today is to find out in 2009 if we believe it’s going to be more of the same. So if you would all turn with me to slide number two. I will start with a little bit of a commercial here. Stewart Capital Advisors, LLC is an active manager of both equity and fixed income portfolios. We believe that risk and return are strongly related and while there’s nothing wrong with taking investment risks, investors should be paid adequately for taking those risks. As such, when the fixed incomes (inaudible) rate, pay very close attention to historic yield spread relationships. In our equity portfolios all have minimum long term rates or return expectations built in. We are business perspective investors. In that we mean that business valuation is a central point in our investment philosophy. As we believe that owning a stock is simply nothing more than owning a piece of a business. And since we’re buying a piece of a business we want to behave like business owners. And because we behave like business owners, we want to find business managers with which we can be a long term partner. When we buy a stock we expect to own it for a minimum of…

Operator

Operator

We will now be conducting the question and answer session. [Operator instructions].

Malcolm E. Polley

Management

While we’re waiting for that, I did get one more question via email, and it was a question of what do we expect to happen with energy? Well, prices rise back up dramatically and gradually. Our expectation on oil prices is that we’ll probably end 2009 in the $50 to $60 a barrel range. Oil prices, energy prices, do follow global economic activity, so we should not get a dramatic move in oil prices upward unless and until the global economic environment improves. If, on a global basis, we continue to be in a recession for all of 2009, then we will expect that oil prices will probably continue in the same range. Once the global economy starts expanding again, then the supply and demand issues will again take over and we would expect oil prices to rise. Long-term, and we’re talking probably in the next three to five years, we would not be surprised to see oil prices head back above that $100 a barrel range. They got there much more rapidly than we expected, and we would expect at some point to see them go back to that range, but we will get a bit of a break over the next year or so, until global economic activity moderates. Are there any questions via telephone?

Operator

Operator

There are no questions at this time sir.

Malcolm E. Polley

Management

We’ve got another question via email and it asks, what strategy will we pursue this year to take advantage of opportunities in equities and bonds? That’s an interesting question. What we’ve been telling people is that in the fixed income arena that we are paying very close attention to credit spreads, we’ve always done that, and we will continue to use that approach. What that has meant is that we were very aggressive in the corporate equity market in late November and December, a little less so in early January, and have a little less attracted to the corporate market as spreads have come down to around 200 basis points over treasury. We’re also seeing some really strange things happen in a new issue market, which reminds us a lot of what happened in the dot com bubble in the late 1990’s, where if you would have an issue come to the market, it would be several times over subscribed, and you’d end up getting a very small fraction of what you indicated an interest in. We’re seeing that in the bond market as a corporate issue, or it will come to the market with a 5, 10, and 30 year issuance. It will be seven, eight, nine, ten times over subscribed. We’ll put in for 1,000,000 bonds and maybe get 100,000. So we’re having to substantially pad our order book in order to get even modestly close to the kinds of things we would like to see. In the commercial mortgage-backed securities arena, which we think is extremely attractive, we’re still seeing spreads anywhere from 500 to 700 basis points above treasuries, and I apologize for the (inaudible), that’s 5 to 7 percentage points above treasuries. But we’re paying very close attention to the underlying credits. We’d prefer bonds…

Operator

Operator

There are no questions at this time sir.

Malcolm E. Polley

Management

Okay. We’ll give you a minute or so to get any email questions if you have any? And as the moderator said, if you have a question via telephone, don’t be afraid to ask, was it *1 sir?

Operator

Operator

Yes, please press *1 to queue yourself up for a question.

Malcolm E. Polley

Management

If there are no other questions, I would thank you all for attending this quarter’s conference call. Your next call should be three months from today, and we look forward to visiting with you either in person or via email or via this conference call. Thank you once again for participating, and we’ll see you in a quarter.